gunnarthor

You realize that Mauer actually had fewer minor league games before he was called up, right? You realize the Twins have had several players go up several levels in one year, including Baker, Garza, Slowey, Liriano and Hendriks? The Twins rely on their minor leagues more than most teams so you'll get guys like Plouffe who need 6+ years before he's ready. Most teams give up on those guys. But the Twins have pushed their better prospects when they have them.

Runs don't take ball park into consideration. They went from a team 84 OPS+ to 99. Their position players, as a team, went from 0 WAR to 22 WAR. They improved their offense, despite losing Cuddy and Kubel. That was the main question mark heading into last season.

Draft - first, while they drafted several relief pitchers, they are giving a few of them the chance to start. I believe they want Martinez and Bard to be starters. But secondly, I have no problems with the Twins drafting strong bullpen arms that they think can get to the majors quickly in what was generally regarded as a weak draft class. The Twins under Ryan tended to draft well, so it's way premature to complain about this one. If Buxton and Berrios both develop into solid players and one relief pitcher makes the show, it would be considered a strong draft. FA - I'm not going to overly defend Ryan on this one. First, the offseason isn't over so more could be done. But even if he's done, he has improved the rotation, considerably. I wish the Twins would sign 15m pitchers but they won't. It is what it is. If they can get replacement level out of them, it's a considerable improvement. Ryan also signed a handful of intriguing arms like Augenstein and Vasquez who could help in the pen. Rule V - Hard to know why a bunch of teams passed on Lara, he was the last pick of the draft. I would've been happy to see us give him a shot but we don't have access to the same information the Twins do. But they have been pretty good in rule V drafts over the years so I'm not going to lose sleep over it. DFAs - Twins claimed Josh Roenicke off waivers. Again, I'm not sure there was anyone claimed on waivers that was better than Masttoianni. And isn't that the real issue - the Twins were successful there. They got a fairly valuable player off of waivers. Sure, it would be great if they got a pitcher but that's not what happened. Trades - far too early to grade the trades but most people - Klaw, Callis, Sickels - thought the Twins did pretty good in both trades. On Ryan - I think Ryan is a fine GM. Keep in mind what he had when he took over a year ago. A team with a horrible, 2010 Marineers like offense and a bullpen that was among the worst in baseball. The rotation was seen as reasonable. Ryan fixed both the pen and the lineup. He signed a bunch of pitchers and Fein and Burton were nice gets. He signed a couple low cost free agents in Willingham and Doumit, who fit in perfectly. Now he has to fix the rotation. I mentioned this in another post but I'll repeat it here. Last year the team gave 88 starts to a bunch of really bad pitchers that amassed a negative 9.5 WAR! Let's say that Correia gives us a 2010 Blackburn like season - 26 starts (14 quality starts), -0.5 WAR, 160 ip. Pelfrey repeats his 2011 season - 33 starts (15 quality starts), 0.0 WAR, 190 ip and Worley gives us 27 starts (15 quality starts), 1.0 WAR, 160 ip. That more than covers the 88 horrendous starts I just mentioned and is a net gain of 10 WAR.

Yeah, thanks for sharing that. Walker could be a real sleeper for us, sorta like Rosario was a few years ago. I think it'l take him a long time though. I didn't know as much about Chargois before but that write-up got me hopeful.

I'm ok with that. Benson's getting old - it's time to give him a chance. I suspect Hicks wins it in ST but will struggle and get sent down at some point. But if at the end of the year we have a Benson/Hicks/Arcia OF, I won't be unhappy.

Just to respond to my own post, let's say that Correia gives us a 2010 Blackburn like season - 26 starts (14 quality starts), -0.5 WAR, 160 ip. Pelfrey repeats his 2011 season - 33 starts (15 quality starts), 0.0 WAR, 190 ip and Worley gives us 27 starts (15 quality starts), 1.0 WAR, 160 ip. That more than covers the 88 horrendous starts I just mentioned and is a net gain of 10 WAR.

Worley, Diamond, Correia, Pelfrey and Harden will be the opening day 1-5, with Gibson in the bullpen and Hendriks starting at AAA. Gibson will be put in the rotation after the break and Hendriks will get promoted after an injury. There is some hope in that rotation, if you pray really hard. We can hope that Diamond has another year like last year, Worley should be solid, if not spectacular, so long as he's healthy. Hopefully, Correia can eat some innings. Harden is a nice low risk move. Pelfrey should do well in TF if his surgery went well. If Ryan can upgrade the IF defense .... I posted this somewhere else but last year the team gave 88 starts to a bunch of really bad pitchers that amassed a negative 9.5 WAR! (Ignoring the 16 ****ty starts by Hendriks for now). If Diamond repeats last year, then Correia, Worley and Pelfrey can hopefully cover most of those 88 starts between them, then all that's left is the 31 starts made by Deduno/DeVries to be covered by Harden/Gibson//Deduno. And Hendriks is, hopefully, a lot better in his 16 starts this year. Obviously, it won't work quite like that but last year's pitching staff was so bad it's hard not to be substantially better even with Correia in this rotation.

Yep, you three hit it right (although Worley really should be 6). We knew Ryan wasn't going to give big bucks to free agents. He wants to slow the bleeding as a team and isn't looking at a pitcher to fix things all by himself. Let's hope the defense is stronger this season. Harden was a nice little move. Worley is a real pitcher. Hopefully, Diamond is too. But after that, we'll be hoping for some weird ugly seasons, like Blackburn's 2010. As bad as he was that year, he still gave the Twins a quality start in 54% of his starts. I'm not sure how that was possible but I'd be ecstatic if Correia gave us 16 starts like that.

Yeah, White was pretty good. Had health issues - only 8 seasons out of 17 w/130 games or more and didn't steal as much after age 30 - but in his prime he was a pretty darn good ball player. Big part of those hated Toronto teams. I hope Buxton is a bit better offensively (although White's power is probably a realistic comp) but it certainly wouldn't be a bust if he had White's career.

I was just about to link that, too. Really nice write up.

Yeah, the top 10 guys are always interesting. After they've been here a while, it would be interesting to see how May and Meyer view the development system here vs their old clubs. But reading about guys who (probably) won't make it can be fun too. It's nice to see how they are handling going from being the best in their high school/college to maybe a minor league filler guy. 'Course, the phrasing of the questions has too be delicate. :-) Sleeper's that I'd like to know a bit more about include Felix Jorge and Polanco. I'd like to know what the Twins international side is like through a players eyes.

Indians To Sign Nick Swisher: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com 4yr deal with a 5th year vesting option that could be worth as much as 70m over all five years. This could be good news for the Twins if it leads a team like the Rangers to panic and trade for Willingham and/or Morneau.

Arcia doesn't really have all of Buxton's tools. His most common comp is Jason Kubel. He might be a bit better defender in right but he doesn't have Buxton's speed, range or defensive abilities. He might hit and have more power, or he might not. Buxton's comps were guys like Sizemore and Upton, better all around players. TRex is right that prospect ranking is more than just ranking performance, it's gauging future ML-success. Arcia is a nice prospect but I think he's getting vastly overrated by Twins fans. Buxton, Sano and arguably even Hicks all have tools that are superior and should make them the better prospects.

yep, but the ban was for a drug of abuse, not PEDs.

2/14. I guess it's a high risk/reward thing. Maybe he does better in the NL.

Those aren't the best things to look at. Mauer's OPS is very impressive. Without adjusting for ballparks, it's above guys like Dunn, Tulu, Cano, Beltran, HanRam, Rolen, Willingham and Morneau. When you take ballparks into account, his 135 OPS+ is the same as Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, David Wright and Todd Helton and above guys like Teixeira and Kemp. That's just his bat. No extra credit for doing it as a catcher.

Frankie Rodriguez.

I don't know enough about Hultzen but the theory is fine. My guess is that Benson has very little trade value now so it'd have to be someone else. I think any of Hicks, Arcia, Kepler would draw legitimate interest from other teams (and that the Twins might be willing to move). Whether Willingham and Arcia (for example) is too much or too little for Hultzen, I'm not sure. I think Righty has the right idea - let someone get desperate and overpay. Your suggestion that to target a guy like Biddle is a good one.

Not sure the hostility is deserved there. You'd trade a guy b/c you think you'd get something better back for your team. I don't think Arcia's bat will play well in TF so I'd be happy to trade him for something else we need - such as a pitcher. It's not often you get to trade fool's gold for a good piece. Bullock/Diamond was a nice example, I suppose.

That's why I love them. Bullock for Diamond. At the time, Twins fans were all "ARRGH" and Atlanta fans were all "Woo-hoo!" And I think a guy like Arcia might be near his peak value now.

I think he's still out of the top 5 - Bench, Berra, Cochrane, Rodriguez, Piazza and Carter are all still above him. And don't underrate a guy like Campanella. Because of segregation, he didn't get to the majors until he was 26 and a fulltimer at 27. He played 10 years and won 3 MVPs. Fisk, Torre, Simmons and Mauer would all be in the discussion to round out the top 10.

I've seen a few Atlanta boards where some were willing to get rid of Teheran for Willingham. Although some were strongly against it, too. He must be a polarizing prospect for Atlanta. I've been a big fan of Lee and hoped the Twins could get him last year (it was rumored that the Dodgers were willing to do a Lee for Carlos Lee deal with Houston but Carlos vetoed it). But I'm not sure the Dodgers need anything we have. Pirates might be dumb enough to trade Taillon at the deadline if they think they're close but they'd be better off keeping him and having him #2 to Cole in a few years. I think Ryan would trade Willingham for a front line starter but I don't think the offer will come and I don't think Ryan would trade Willingham for a Hardy like pu-pu platter of low prosects. I think something more interesting might be a prospect swap. Say Arcia for Hultzen. LH power doesn't play well at TF but might be a better fit in (or elsewhere). Prospect for prospect trades don't happen that much but I think it would be pretty fun to see one.

I think he's pretty close. He needs 10 years, of course, but that comes after this season. He's still in his prime but his peak has been pretty darn good. I don't think he needs another 2009 season (although I hope he has several), just a few more solid Mauer years. It'll be interesting to see how the voters look at him, long term. It's stereotyping but traditional voters won't like his low power numbers but will probably like his avg/batting titles. New voters will look at WAR which, b/c of it's defensive problems, probably underrates Mauer. He compares pretty well at this point of his career with other HOF catchers. Durability will be key but I think he rather easily makes it in.

I can't like this enough

I suspect most writers don't really have a problem with dealing with jerks - even big ones like Clemens or Bonds. Most players are dicks, even the bad players. And I would also expect that most writers wish they didn't have to deal with the PED issue at all.