gunnarthor

That's probably up to each fan but I think it's clear that the Twins have had a pretty good run and there isn't reason to think that the FO doesn't know how to fix things. # of losing seasons since the new millennium 0 - Yankees 1 - Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals 2 - Braves, Dodgers 3 - Angels, Twins, White Sox 4 - A's, Giants 5 - Astros, Diamondbacks 6 - Tigers, Blue Jays, Cubs, Padres 7 - Seattle, Rangers, Tampa, Marlins, Mets, Brewers 8 - Cleveland, Washington, 9 - Colorado 10 - Reds 11 - Baltimore, Kansas City 12 - Pirates I'm probably more optimistic about this years team then most people but I think everyone would agree that the 2013 Twins will be the worst team we have for awhile. We have a nice foundation of players to build around, starting this year with Hicks and Gibson.

I'm not sure how much of this to go into. Drafting isn't the only part of minor league development, the team has also added international talent, waivers and trades. That said, I think it's hard to say that the team hasn't drafted well since the new millennium if they had only one losing season between 01-10. But I could be wrong. In 01 they took Mauer and Blackburn. In 02 they took Span, Crain, Neshek. 03 was Baker. 04 was Perkins, Plouffe, Swarzak, Tolbert. 05 was Garza, Slowey, Duensing. 06 was Parmelee, Benson, Valencia and Robertson. 07 was Revere. So they drafted 1 HOF catcher, an all-star pitcher in Garza and 3 decent starters in Baker, Slowey and Blackburn. 2 good center fielders (who were also turned into SP prospects later). They also grabbed several good relief arms and some iffy infielders. And they also traded some 2nd rounders (Landengraf and Bullock) for Diamond and Cabrera. That seems to be fairly respectable. Not included in that were traded for talent and international signees like Liriano, Boof, Ramos, Ford, Casilla and Bartlett. The 06 draft stands out as the draft that really hasn't produced anything for us yet although maybe Benson and/or Parmelee turn into regulars this year. Robertson is probably a part of the pen for the next few years. 04 could have been better but all 4 pitchers got hurt and Plouffe developed slowly. I think a better way of looking at this would be to look at how each team was built. The 2010 Twins, for instance, had 42 players play in at least one game. 6 of them were signed as free agents. The other 36 were either drafted by the Twins, signed as international free agents, minor league free agents, claimed off waivers or traded for. It might be fairer to break that up by impact, after all Thome had a lot more influence on that team than Matt Fox did, but you get the idea. In any event, the minor league system did seem to support the Twins pretty well for 10 years.

You probably should have trash talked the White Sox fans a bit more. But other than that, great job!

No. There were more than 10 RHP ahead of him. #10, Noah Syndergard, was #29 overall.

It probably depends on how you look at the system. Generally, over the last decade or so I would say that the system has generated enough good players. That doesn't mean there can't (won't) be down times but from 01-10, the team's worst season was 79 wins and that was its only losing season. That's a pretty solid run that you can't reasonably expect to continue indefinitely. And the system is designed to prevent that by making good players more expensive as they get more experience and making good teams draft later. Good teams are also likely to make win-now moves by trading prospects for rental players. If the team didn't have payroll concerns, they could arguable still have a rotation in which Garza, Baker, Santana and Liriano were all competing for spots in, this year. So I think that the Twins system has generally created enough talent over time. I don't think a few bad years should be looked at in isolation. To do so would cause overreactions. The 11-12 Twins were bad and the 13 Twins will be too. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the Twins system is itself broken. The 11-12 teams were hurt badly by the washouts of Young and Liriano, injuries to both Mauer and Morneau, and the slow development of the 06 group - Parmelee and Benson. Most teams will take a hit if you remove their two MVP players and two top 5 overall prospects (Young and Liriano) regress to beyond bad. The Twins haven't been able to draft near the top of the draft and ownership has usually adhered to the slotting system. That took it's toll on the system as well. It's nearly impossible for a team to continue to restock itself from the minors without a hitch. That the Twins actually managed to change nucleus without much of a hitch in the mid 00s was pretty impressive. So I do think that the Twins system is generally ok and that most of the problems aren't structural but rather cyclical.

It's cyclical. And since Mauer was called up, the Twins have added a ton of young talent. All of these guys have had at least one decent year - Bartlett, Garza, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Baker, Liriano, Span, Revere, Kubel, Ford, Ramos, Neshek, Crain, Swarzak, Duensing, etc. They also traded prospects for guys like Pavano, Cabrera, Castillo, Rauch and Fuentes. The 05 and 06 drafts stand out as the real problems right now - Garza was traded for Young, which didn't work out and the 06 class - Parmelee, Benson and Robertson haven't really helped much yet. We did get one nice year from Valencia. Gibson, 09, should make his debut this year. Dozier already has. Bullock from that draft was traded for Diamond. Hicks, 08, should debut this year. Revere was 07, was solid and traded for Worley and a prospect. Worrying about young players at AAA is a bit of an over reach. They have several good prospects that'll be at AA or higher this year - Gibson, Hicks, Arcia, May and Hendriks - who could all be called up at any time.

If we could only find Jennifer Connolly in it ....

Actually, I think Arcia loses his rookie eligiblity this year but he might not. He's awfully young so the Twins might not push him. And even though Hicks and Gibson will be gone, they'll add the #4 pick and (hopefully) strong years by some of Kepler, Berrios, May or some sleepers we aren't focusing on (Harrison, Polcanco, Santana) will keep the high ranking next year. (Or Buxton can absolutely explode and become a top 5 prospect).

Good point. Johnson really has changed some of the Twins approach to the draft. He's targeted hard throwers much more than Radcliff had (although there were exceptions to both - Johnson drafted Wimmers, Radcliff grabbed Garza). He drafted guys like Williams, Tootle, Hunt, Bullock, Bashore, Boyd, Bard etc, not caring if they weren't always starters or college arms. He still went after toolsy position players but also used our first #1 pick on a college bat (Levi Michael) for the first time since 96. I had always liked his drafts but there hadn't been a lot of actual results yet. That hopefully changes this year when Hicks/Gibson make the majors. If you agree that our top 10 are (in some order) Sano, Buxton, Meyers, Gibson, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, May, Kepler, Berrios then Johnson is responsible for guys like Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, Gibson and Berrios. Sano, Arcia, Kepler were signed by our international department. And Ryan added Meyer and May.

Jason Giambi once said the same thing.

Ryan has been GM for just over a year.

Yeah, I was going to mention that too. He's also been a big fan of Hicks and Arcia in the past. MLB's top 100 isn't, IMHO, as good as BA's list, so I'll be interested to see how they compare. BA was the hardest on Hicks, I'd love to see what they think of him now. Lastly, fangraphs Mike Newman would take Kepler over Bubba Starling. He's a huge fan.

I think Gibson starts the season in the pen like Atlanta did with Medlin last year. Hendriks will get the 5th spot to start with.

Up from 17 last year. 2013 Baseball Farm System Rankings - Minor League Ball "Strengths: hitting. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks will be ready to help the outfield sometime in 2013. Enormous upside in players like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario. Weaknesses: lack of high upside arms although that's improved thanks to '12 draft and winter trades that brought in Alex Meyer and Trevor May. If new group of arms develops properly, this could be a top three system by end of '13."

ARod is due 114m more. Wow. It'll be interesting to see what MLB does or doesn't do over the next few months.

Sano & Buxton around 20ish Hicks, Meyer, Arcia 40-60 area Rosario and Gibson 85-100 range I don't know if mlb.com (Mayo) will throw in a risk guy but I wouldn't be stunned if one of Kepler, May or Berrios slipped onto a few top 100 lists, too.

I'm concerned about the MI defense but not that concerned about the OF. Span/Revere were great but Revere made Span a better CFer, something the Nats will learn. Maestro, Hicks or Benson should be better than Span in CF. I think Hicks gets the nod for opening day and every scouting write up on him thinks he'll be a great defensive CFer. There might be questions about his bat but his defense should make him pretty good. Parmelee in right isn't great but Maestro will probably be a defensive replacement for him most games which will minimize it somewhat. And if Parmelee isn't hitting, the team won't keep him out there. I think by the end of the season, we'll have traded Willingham and you'll see an OF of Benson/Hicks/Arcia in Aug/Sept.

I'm not so sure. Smith was clearly indecisive in 11. Cuddy might have gotten a nice haul back. So might have Kubel. But Ryan did move Castillo in 07 when the Twins were 54-51 and 7 GB. Didn't go over well with players or fans.

What if the team is surprisingly competitive to near the break. Like 40-42. And then Ryan trades off Morneau, Perkins and Willingham and the team finishes 34-48 for a 74-90 record? Think they'd blame Gardy?

Not really, not in the AL anyways. MN and Oakland have only won in the playoffs when facing each other, otherwise 0-9. The 08 Rays are really the only low payroll team that had post season success, and, of course, they've been one and done twice since then. And that team was created by having high draft picks for a decade. That's not to say that an avg payroll (the Rangers, Twins in 10) won't work in the playoffs. But actual, low, payrolls winning in the AL? Doesn't really happen. 12 games isn't really a good way to judge a manager, especially since you're trying to make sweeping generational claims about a system that has recently changed. Only the 06 and 10 Twins would've made the playoffs in the old system which covers most of baseball history (04 team would have tied Angels and had a playoff). Had their been more teams in the playoffs over the best 80 years, the 12 games you care about wouldn't be so unusual. The 69-70 Twins, for instance, got swept out both years despite avg 97.5 wins. They happened to run into a team that still managed to avg 10 more wins/season. That happens to be about the same avg difference in the Twins first round opponents in the Gardy era (1-4 in the first round).

I always think of Game 5 against Oakland as the ultimate Everyday Eddie game. Twins get 3 in the top of the ninth and take a 4 run lead into the bottom, Eddie gives 3 of them back, Twins win. He was likeable enough. 17 years in the majors, over $29m made. Nice career.

Are you really comparing the resources of the 3 largest AL markets to the Twins under Gardy? Really?

I don't think Gardy is the problem but I think he's also respected enough around the league that I could see him leaving the Twins after the year to manage somewhere else. I don't think that will happen and think it's more likely that the Twins extend him, but I could see him going to a NL team.

Man, posts like this drive me nuts. Butera has never batted 2nd. He's had 11 plate appearances in his career batting 3rd and all of them came after he relieved Mauer. (He's only had one start where he wasn't batting 8th or 9th. He batted 7th once). Gardy has done a fine job with young players and his team has always been among the youngest in the league. In fact, since he became our manager, we've had the youngest lineup 3 times, 2nd youngest 3 times, 3rd youngest 3 times and only one season where they weren't among the 5 youngest lineups in baseball. He's gotten the best out of a lot of young guys. The list of guys who have been better after they left Gardy is incredibly short. (cue paranoid Machiavellian Gardy theories now). The 5 teams that the Twins have lost to in the 1st round have averaged 101 wins/season but let's act like the 86 win Twins team should've beaten those Yankees.

Well, he is right. I've posted it many times now but simply replacing the 88 starts that amassed -8 WAR last year, the Twins are a lot better.