gunnarthor

The conventional wisdom is that Romney has hurt himself by not releasing more years. If you think insistence on the issue hurts Dems, fine, but the poll numbers don't seem to support that. And Reid and Pelosi aren't running for President so it doesn't matter in this presidential race if they put out more returns. Romney has been effectively hurt by the issue but continues to refuse to divulge more tax returns to the American public (while requiring his potential VPs to divulge more to him). That suggests that his undisclosed tax returns show even more tax shelters or other issues that wouldn't sit well with many voters.

Geez, what is this? Some marvel comic movie??? We get it... Bobby Cuellar is the great pitching coach ever (with the possible exception of Dave Duncan)... right? It's professional sports. When a team has been the worst in the league for 2 years in a row, changes have to be made. That simple. Look at Cleveland this season and Boston last season. And both are better than where the Twins have been. Look at the football team in Minnesota after last season when it hit rock bottom. They made changes. The Twins have stayed pretty much unchanged (other than musical chairs) since TK retired on the field and since Andy MacPhail left on the front office. That does not serve them well.... About time for some new blood there. Did Cleveland make a move that I missed? Acta's still their manager, right? Boston isn't really like any situation the Twins have. Changes made by Twins since 99 loss year: Fired GM, brought in Ryan. Added Krivisky to front office. Fired AAA coaches and promoted Bruno. Moved Radcliff back to draft room to work w/Johnson. (I know you'll say something silly like Ryan is the same as Smith, Krivisky is retread, Radcliff should be fired, not put in charge of draft. And you'll say something nice about Bruno). Generally, stability in a team is a good thing. How many GMs and managers did the Rays, Royals, Pirates, Ranagers, M's go through? Ryan et all has shown he can create a winning team and quickly rebuild the teams nucleus. He deserves a chance to show he can do it again. Gardy and Andy have a track record of success, so they get a chance to rebuild. This is Gardy's 11th season and it'll be his 3rd w/a losing record. One less than Francona.

This is a good post. After the 2004 draft, BA ranked the Twins draft the best. But injuries hit all four of those pitchers ... IIRC, Gutierrez was seen as a reach in the first round but it could also have been a money thing, since the Twins had 3 picks in the top 30ish that year. Klaw ripped the Twins for taking Gutierrez but praised them for taking Hunt. I think the prospect community (BA, Klaw, Prospectus, Mayo) have generally been positive of recent Twins drafts. We got a lot of praise for taking Gibson, Hicks, and the last two years drafts first few picks. We got some criticism for taking Revere and Span and not overpaying later in the draft (I think that has some basis in reality, I wish the Twins would have spent a little more and signed Marvel this season, for instance). Parmelee was seen as a good gamble pick as he was the #1 high school power bat in his draft class. Wimmers was a well regarded conservative move although some pushed for the Twins to take a gamble on HS pitcher Stetson Allie. I can't remember the specifics of taking guys like Tootle, Bullock and Bashore but I think someone wondered about the health of one of them. The Twins tendency to draft toolsy HS players is probably something that most in the prospect community support, since they understand the Twins are making an athletic bet and they probably enjoy that.

You do realize that Johnson's drafting philosophy has been far different than Radcliff's, right? Gibson, Hunt, Bullock, Tootle, Berrios, Willaims, Gutierrez, Boer, Boyd etc can not really be described as typical Twins pitchers. Wimmers would fall into that category but generally Johnson has made more risky picks on flame throwers and HS pitchers than Radcliff did.

Arcia burns an option yr regardless of whether he comes up or not.....Hicks will not use an option yr as he will never be optioned, only added to 40 man roster. No lose bringin both up, cept service time I was all set to argue with you on Arcia's option but then I read that "If a player is on the 40-man roster in spring training but optioned to the minors before the season begins, an option is used." I had not known that. Then I think he should get a call up after the AA playoffs.

Did not know that rule, thanks for clarifying.

I was going to put this on his adopt a prospect page but I couldn't find it, so I'll put it here. Baseball prospectus' future shock on Berrios: "He wasn't a first-round pick in June, but he was the first pick right after it ended, going 31st overall and ending up just the sixth high school arm selected. He signed quickly for a $1.55 million bonus and he's looked nothing short of fantastic since taking the mound: 27 strikeouts and just seven hits allowed over 16 2/3 innings in the Gulf Coast League, adding four one-hit innings with five more whiffs on Saturday in his Appy League debut. Berrios is undersized at an even six feet tall, but he makes you forget about his size quickly with plus to plus-plus velocity coming out of one of those easy deliveries that makes it look like he's playing catch. He's flashed a good slider so far and has some feel for a changeup; the few pro scouts that have seen Berrios think the Twins may have really found something here." I was hoping the Twins would grab Berrios before the draft. Should be fun to watch his development.

I wonder if Arcia might be sent to the AFL? Unless there's an injury, I don't think the Twins will bring up Hicks. They need Span to keep playing to keep his trade value high for the offseason. Willingham won't get sat. And Mauer, Doumit and Morneau have the DH spot covered. I could see Arcia coming up and getting some time in RF with Revere but more likely the Twins don't burn an option year on either of them this year.

This is where I really, really think Ryan will isolate the majority of his own political base. Even the most conservative Christian right-wingers see taking care of those who truly cannot take care of themselves as vital. Meanwhile the suggestions Romney paid no taxes keep on coming, while ignoring his charitable givings. It's my moral obligation to help others, not my legal obligation. The left doesn't understand the difference. Charitable givings are nice but after you deduct how little he paid in taxes that normal Americans have to pay (and the many tax shelters he has available to him), it's likely that his taxes + charitable giving is still a lower % than what most Americans give over. But the point of his tax returns isn't that he's some wealthy prick (well, not completely the point). In an era of tough economic times, wouldn't we all be better off with a discussion on the economic disparity that different classes of Americans face? Everyone knows that the rich get treated better by our system but I don't think many people understand just how much better. The former Dodgers owners never paid income tax because of all the tax loopholes in the system. We have a presidential candidate that hides a lot of his money in foreign accounts and, under the Ryan budget, would have paid less than 1% in taxes. Money has made it nearly impossible for normal Americans to run for Congress. Money from a handful of very rich people may have a determinative effect on all elections going forward, heck one person kept Newt Gingrinch's presidential run alive long after republican voters had left him. Money may lead to many Americans being disenfranchised by voter id laws and gerrymandering. Discussing the role of money and the differences among the classes of Americans is a good thing. Shining a light on Romeny's actions can help with that conversation.

Ryan isn't a good choice. It's too easy to point out that his budget priorities hurt the poor and middle class and help the rich. And it won't take much to make seniors - who generally support Romney - get nervous about proposed cuts to things like medicaid. It's also hard to take anyone seriously about lowering government spending who isn't willing to make serious cuts to our defense spending. Ryan's just another right-wing flake. He energizes the birther base but he'll turn off moderates and independents.

-sigh- Trout dominated A ball a lot more than either Sano or Rosario did, and didn't get his face broken during batting practice. Heck his "not great" 50 game run at A+ is better than what Sano is doing now. Trout's hit tools were obvious in the minor leagues which is why he was rushed, he was also the rare 17 yr old senior who immediately signed with the Angels. Sano is striking out at a scary pace. He's a great prospect but he's not a sure thing. He's striking out over 27% of his at-bats in low A ball. The Twins have only had one prospect on Trout's level - Mauer, and they did rush him. He spent the same number of seasons in the minors as Trout (actually had slightly fewer PA).

What about the Scott Boras factor? The Twins were far from the only team to take a pass to avoid that guy. Yeah, Twins (I argued) were never going to take Appel b/c of our past history with Boras (Belcher and Lee were both Boras guys). I thought the Twins might take Zimmer but he struggled a bit. I was pretty happy with the Buxton pick and he's played great for us so far.

Never mind, I think it's all defensive value now that I look at the oWAR and dWAR lines.

I readily admit I'm not great at figuring out WAR so can someone explain this to me. Morneau has a 119 OPS+ and 1 bWAR to Adrian Gonzalez 117 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR. Gonzalez has played in 20 more games and is considered a better defensive player but, even taking defense out, seems to have a much bigger WAE lead. Gonzalez plays in a hitters park so he does have a bunch of doubles, even though Morneau has more homers. Does WAR not take ball parks into account?

Yep, really nice season.

I think the Twins can make more Bullock/Diamond moves. Diamond is obviously a "Twins" pitcher and the Twins seem to have a good understanding on the importance of control type pitchers. Those pitchers seem to be underrated by other clubs (maybe Pedro Hernandez gets a shot next year). I could see Ryan trying to add one of those guys fairly cheaply. I do think he'll trade Span for one starter to go along with Diamond and Hendriks. Gibson will come up at some point next year but will be on limited innings, maybe he starts in the pen?. I'm not sure if Ryan will spend much on a free agent but he could get a guy like Joe Blanton. Obviously, I'd like the team to add Grienke, Marcum or even Sanchez but i don't think that's likely. I wonder if a guy like Dan Haren, injured, sorta bad year, might be available on a one year deal to get his value up.

Here's some video of him: http://taiwanbaseball.blogspot.com/2012/04/hs-top-gun-vids.html

They can certainly do both though. 2m on Jurrjens is, in my opinion, a better idea than 3m on Marquis. And I'm not as concerned about the Twins pursuing "Twins way" pitchers as others. They're underrated and cheap. I don't know if Jurrjens will be able to pitch in the AL, it's a legitimate concern but if the Twins decide to buy low on him (presumably after discussing that issue) I wouldn't criticize them for it.

BA ranked Machado #11 prospect coming into the season and he'll certainly stay in the top 10 in their next ranking. The 20 year old shortstop hit .266/.352/.438 in the Eastern League (same league as Hicks) but is getting promoted to the majors to play third base. Heyman reports another GM said: "I still think it's too early to recall him,'' that GM said. "Just because he's better than Wilson Betemit doesn't mean it's the right move for the kid.'' Interesting to see what happens. I don't think it's too big a deal, if/when he struggles you can send him back to AA/AAA. On the other hand, he only played two games at third in the minors and now he's supposed to step in and play it at the ML level? That might be a bad idea.

Atlanta might non-tender the 26 year old former all star instead of paying him about 5.9m next year. The article mentions the Twins might be a team willing to make a trade this offseason for Jurrjens. Obviously, he's been horrible this year but he was pretty good in 08, 09 and 11 and is still young. He was never much of strike out pitcher and managed only 4.7 k/9 in AAA this year before being recalled and going on the DL. He's certainly not going to be an ace but, if it works out, he could be a good and cheap back of the rotation starter, good for 20 starts and 140 innings or so, as he pitches himself back into shape. I think he'd be an interesting non-tender pick up but I probably wouldn't want to trade much for him and pay him nearly 6m.

I agree.

So he's a work in progress, is what you're saying.

OK, I was working today so I missed whatever happened. What did Nishi do today?

I guess there are a few ways to look at this article. I liked it since it explained the scouting side of pitchers. When BA, Klaw, Goldstein etc said that guys like Zimmer, Gausman and Appel were more likely #2s than aces it meant that, from the scouting view, those pitchers lacked something - a second plus pitch, command, an avg third pitch, etc. I think labeling ML pitchers aces, #2 etc is a bit redundant since results matter in the majors more than projection. Radke was a better pitcher than Beckett, for example, even though Beckett was surely rated higher.