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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Who had him in that range? Not fangraphs, not baseball america, not baseball prospectus, not Jonathan Mayo. Maybe the fans at Twinkie Town. I'm not sure if Klaw does a team rating but I don't have insider.
  2. gunnarthor
    I dunno. Why Joe Had To Go | Extra Bases | Rochester Democrat and Chronicle I found this and the writer there specifically points out his horrible numbers: "Benson played himself out of any chance of a future with the Twins. He hit .192 with 1 homer and 9 RBI in 42 games. Let those numbers sink in for a minutes, because there’s more. He also struck out 50 times and walked just 10 times in 151 at-bats. That’s one K for every three at-bats." And he closed it with "But I also remember what Red Wings legend Joe Altobelli told me. Players hit a wall at certain levels. For some, it’s A ball. For others, it’s AAA. Benson just might not be able to hit Triple-A pitching." Certainly don't see anything there suggesting he had checked out but a lot to support the idea that he couldn't hit above AA.
  3. gunnarthor
    Cool. Liked your old site although I think I found it a bit later, maybe 2005 or 2006. Always liked the prospect review, especially since it wasn't that prominent at the time. Best.
  4. gunnarthor
    I'm still digesting Thrylos' Baker signing is imminent thread. Forgive me if I don't give him any weight.
  5. gunnarthor
    Well, there seems to be some selective memory going on there. All 3 of the guys you named happened to be pretty old for their levels b/c they struggled. Guys like Morneau and Kubel got plenty of time at AAA but forced their way to AAA while still pretty young. Arcia was promoted fairly quickly, as was Mauer. Plouffe spent forever in AAA. Posters were irate that Dozier started last year at AAA when he was already 25. And it's a bit silly to blame the Twins on Parm. He earned a sept call up from AA. The following year he spent six weeks in the majors before spending most of the year in AAA. Hard to say that month ruined his development.
  6. gunnarthor
    Got a link to him checking out? I'm pretty sure TD just had a heated discussion about Rosario checking out of games and getting benched. I'd be stunned to hear the Twins were letting Benson check out and not react to that.
  7. gunnarthor
    Well, earlier today: "I still think Arcia is going to be a hell of a hitter in the majors one day but Hicks, I'm about ready to write off."
  8. gunnarthor
    Under this logic, wasn't Hardy already an established player, then?
  9. gunnarthor
    You have no idea that Benson "checked out." He's never shown the ability to hit above AA. He struck out in over 25% of his AA at bats. He's old for his level and didn't improve. Why can't it be that he never developed the plate discipline needed? Why does it have to be some sort of outside factor, like mental games, or blaming the Twins? He was a good 2nd round draft choice who didn't make it. There are literally thousands of guys just like him in baseball.
  10. gunnarthor
    I think it would be really interesting to track the posters who are ready to give up on Hicks but think Benson's getting a raw deal.
  11. gunnarthor
    12? 13? Liriano, Boof, Baker, Garza, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing, Crain, Neshek, Perkins, Diamond, Mijares, Guerrier. All those guys had at least one 2 WAR year.
  12. gunnarthor
    Ortiz was a PED thing. Hardy blamed the medical staff and pointedly stuck up for Vavra. Gil4 hits it right on the head with Gomez. And, no, Benson's problems are more related to his inability to hit at AAA or above. But under the logic of this post, shouldn't the Twins get credit for Willingham and Doumit's career highs in HR?
  13. gunnarthor
    I agree. Carl Pohlad didn't. Guess whose opinion mattered more?
  14. gunnarthor
    I'm not really sure where to even begin with here. 18 games is still a small enough sample size to skew total results - that's why the Twins pyth w/l record against the NL was worse then their actual record. Yes, the Twins schedule is slightly different this year, as is every team in the AL. So, the Twins, like all AL teams, will get a few games against the Astros. Those 6 games aren't enough to make a sizable difference in the final league standings. Heck, the Twins won 3 of 4 at Fenway and no one thought that would skew the final standings either. I suppose if you want, you could break down the schedule by divisions and make estimates about how many games a true .400 team would win. But the 20 game interleague schedule and 6 games against the Astros won't make this team seem better than they are by the end of the season. I'm really not sure why you're fighting this so much.
  15. gunnarthor
    I was gonna link that song but thought, maybe it's not appropriate.
  16. gunnarthor
    Well, those two bad teams would be expected to still win 3 out of 10 in general. But 4 or so if their opponent was a true .400 team.
  17. gunnarthor
    Twins went 9-9 in interleague play last year (and their pyth w/l record was actually worse). They were 57-87 against the AL for a .395 winning percentage. Assuming that was their true talent level, then, over the 162 game season, interleague gave them less than 2 more wins then they should have, not adjusting for opponent strength. The difference between last years interleague opponents and this years is a .059 winning percentage, meaning the Twins (not adjusting for their true value) would win one extra game due to interleague scheduling. Additionally, the Twins had losing interleague records in 2010 and 2011 before hitting .500 last year.
  18. gunnarthor
    Ryan has more information about this than any of it. When it comes to most baseball personal decisions I think, "I'd like to do X." But if the team does "Y" and I can see, with the limited information I have access to, why it makes sense, I'm not likely to say more than, 'oh well.' For example, someone with limited information might hope that the Twins would draft a college pitcher at #2 last year over some prep HS bat. Twins had more information than all of us and chose the HS bat. But, they had information we didn't and it made some sense so .... 'oh well.' Had they drafted Joey Gallo #2 overall and saved 4m dollars, well, that wouldn't have made any sense.
  19. gunnarthor
    You are way over rating a handful of games. Neyer published a study on the difference of imbalanced schedules and it's minute. Maybe 1 or 2 games over a full season. If the Twins are a true .400 team and they play 6 games against a true .500 team instead of 6 games against a true .550 team, there really isn't much difference. Health and individual starters have a much bigger impact on a handful of selected games than generalized team strength.
  20. gunnarthor
    Actually, I think that's a bad thing. Apparently there's an uber-stud pitching prospect next year that would go #1 overall right now if eligible. I'd rather lose 4 more games and draft higher.
  21. gunnarthor
    The drafts have been a bit interesting. The 04 draft we took Plouffe and 4 pitchers in the first. Baseball America ranked the Twins draft the best. And then all four pitchers ended up having some sort of arm surgery. The 06 draft was a pretty weak draft. Of those taken in the 1st round, Parmelee's career WAR of 1.0 is 13th best of all 44 players taken in the 1st round.
  22. gunnarthor
    Way too early to give up on Hicks. He's struggling and will probably be sent to AAA soon but he will be a pretty good player for us eventually.
  23. gunnarthor
    Thanks, nice to read.
  24. gunnarthor
    The big difference between the Tigers and Twins has been how much money the owner has been able/willing to pay. Criticism of Ryan for his small market approaches in the dome days under Carl isn't valid, IMHO. Ryan now has the potential (apparently) of spending much more than he has (although we don't know how much the Pohlads are letting him spend. He'll never blame them for payroll issues). I'm ok with the small market approach while he rebuilds this team but I expect the FO to spend money when the team is ready to compete. I understand that others are not.
  25. gunnarthor
    I suspect as the season gets worse, the tone on these boards will too. At least most of the draft discussion has been civil.
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