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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I think my preference, right now, would be Gray, Appel, Bryant, Stewart. I don't know enough about Shipley but wonder if he could be a quick to the majors type who might sign for less than slot at #4 and allow the Twins to spend more down the draft. I don't really want the team to abandon BPA but they might.
  2. gunnarthor
    Too early to worry about it. SSS. But Target Field isn't great for his power. Even in his truncated 2010 season he hit 14 of his 18 home runs on the road. I'd love to see him with the Rangers or (god forbid) Yankees.
  3. gunnarthor
    yep. 'Course, some are a whole lot more likely than the others.
  4. gunnarthor
    He may be worth his contract in 3 years. He might be a slight overpay. Or he could be a big albatross.
  5. gunnarthor
    And maybe he'll be a 0 WAR guy spending the year on the DL. But at least we both seem to agree that he won't be as good in three years (when we actually need him to be) than he is now.
  6. gunnarthor
    Great, we go from a 70 win team and a top 7 pick to a 74 win team and a top 13 pick. And then we have a big contract that might prevent us from adding pretty good pitcher when the team is actually ready to win. That makes sense. But I guess this is where I say something about all the "spend money no matter what" crowd?
  7. gunnarthor
    Well sure, bWAR and fWAR differ. But yeah, I would usually predict that a pitcher won't be as good at 33 than he would be at 27.
  8. gunnarthor
    Well, you don't know he won't be a zero WAR player in 3 years. Works both ways. His WAR over his age 26-28 years was 3.2, 3.8, 2.4. That's good but not amazing and those are usually a pitchers' peak years. Still owing him 50m (assuming that the Twins had to outbid the Tigers by adding a year) doesn't seem that good of a move. He might grow old gracefully and put up a bunch of 2WAR seasons but since he hasn't shown to be that durable and his peak wasn't that high, he seems a bad bet.
  9. gunnarthor
    I think the bigger concern (for me, at least) is that he won't be a 3-4 WAR pitcher in 3 years when the team is actually built to win.
  10. gunnarthor
    1) That's a bit much to quote. Something Tobias would do. 2) What final stats are being used?
  11. gunnarthor
    Isn't Correia giving the team some tangible benefit right now? He's worth about 1.3 WAR already (2.1 WAR more than Brandon McCarthy) and he's eating innings to protect the pen and allowing the young pitchers in the minors time to develop while not hurting the Twins longterm plans.
  12. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure we're so open minded about Twins pitchers posting 60ish ERA+ or accepting of those signings.
  13. gunnarthor
    He's done it once, he's a bad pitcher and he's back on the DL. He hasn't had a WAR above 1 since 2009.
  14. gunnarthor
    I believe we have 5 players on this years team that was on our 2010 team and two of them Perkins and Plouffe didn't play much. Glad to know we're not rebuilding.
  15. gunnarthor
    Well, I'll include Sanchez on these updates going forward. I'm not opposed to signing him and I would have been happy if we did. But I think it doesn't make much sense during a rebuild to invest that much in a pitcher with his limited track record and age.
  16. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I think there are too many org guys in there to get a good sense of what we're doing.
  17. gunnarthor
    And wearing body armor on the elbows.
  18. gunnarthor
    I agree that there is going to be some regression in the pen but pointing to those 4 guys seems a bit of cherry picking (and it's been 70 innings and I think maybe you should expect 6 HR). Swarzak is really the long reliever so his success isn't that important. He usually only pitches in losses anyway. The other 3 don't tend to give up a lot of homers anyway (Pressly milb stats) and Duensing's been pretty good at limiting home runs as a reliever - .4 HR/9. Our most important bullpen arms don't seem to be too out of whack. But I agree with the central premise that if our starters don't get better, our pen is going to break down.
  19. gunnarthor
    Before the season started, I said that I thought the Twins would be surprisingly competitive and hanging around .500 until the trade deadline when Ryan ships off Willingham and Morneau. I still think that happens.
  20. gunnarthor
    Yes, it's unlikely that the .405 babip will remain that high but how much of that are you crediting with his overall numbers? To get a .300ish babip, you'd take away 10 singles and 3 doubles and you still have opponents putting up a pretty scary looking .304/.344/.477 ish line. That's still horrible (2010-2011 Blackburn type). That said, I do think he's a much better pitcher than he's shown but it's hard to say that he's just unlucky. He's been a bit unlucky but he's also been very bad.
  21. gunnarthor
    So what "elite talent" did you think the Twins should have been signing?
  22. gunnarthor
    He hasn't done it at all as a pro. He's 23. He has over 2100 minor league PA. The Twins aren't going to tell him to go back to the minors and get another 500 milb at bats righty on righty. I don't know if they should or shouldn't but it's done at this point. Unless he completely fails hitting as a lefty, they aren't going to pull the plug. I sorta agree with you. I think he should have hit RH full time (or at least I hope the Twins thought about it and decided that he had enough ability to switch hit).
  23. gunnarthor
    lazy mauer still making outs most of the time.
  24. gunnarthor
    I like Arcia but he shouldn't be in the 2 spot and Mauer should. Arcia's bat speed is amazing but he's already struck out 23 times, that's nearly 30%! And he's walking less than 5%. Unless there's a significant change in that, he's going to slump badly and get sent back to AAA.
  25. gunnarthor
    He's always been a switch hitter. His dad (a former ML minor leaguer) wanted him to stick with golf so he told him if he was going to play baseball he had to do it left handed. And he was still a stud. Twins drafted him and had him as a switch hitter from day one. I'm not sure if he wouldn't have been a better hitter if he had stayed right handed but it is what it is at this point.
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