gunnarthor

Does anyone know if FIP calculations in the minor league levels valid or is it a stat that works best at the ML level where there isn't as much difference in competition? The reason I ask is Hendriks has had some pretty nice AAA FIPs the last few years.

I actually think you make good points even though we probably disagree a bit. I don't think there is a quick fix for the team. Even if they added Sancez, they'd be in line for the #5 pick in next years draft instead of the #3 pick. I think FA should be used to put the finishing touches on teams that are near completion but shouldn't be part of the foundation. We simply disagree on that. So basically I do think the Twins have to finish this cycle and build toward 2015. I honestly don't see any realistic option. That'll mean the Twins will have 3 bad years and 3 high picks in the draft and larger budgets for intl signings. They will have traded guys like Span, Revere, Willingham, Morneau and Perkins to get young talent that'll be part of the 2015 wave. Flipping the question, what moves would you have made to make this team competitive? Outbid Boston and Detroit for Dempster and Sanchez (and do you really think the Twins could have done that)? Trade Sano, Arcia or Hicks for something? Drafted Gausman over Buxton? Keep Span and/or Revere?

Well, sure but that's what you said. Ryan hoards his young prospects but that doesn't mean he's uncomfortable making trades and many of his trades have worked out quite well. He's gotten plenty of talent back while keeping his best prospects. Just comparing Mays, Milton and Liriano to Det's three guys - best seasons by WAR Mays 01 - 6.7 (league min) Fister 11 - 5.2 (league min) Liriano 06 - 4.5 (league min) Liriano 10 - 4.4 (1.6m) Milton 99 - 4.2 (league min) Schertzer 12 - 4.2 (3.75m) Sanchez 11 - 3.8 (3.7m) Sanchez 06 - 3.7 (league min) Milton 01 - 3.6 (2.15m) Milton 00 - 3.5 (league min) Schertzer 10 - 3.3 (1.5m) Fister 12 - 3.3 (league min) Sanchez 10 - 3.2 (1.25m) Mays 99 - 3.0 (league min) And that doesn't include Silva who had a couple 3+ WAR years, Lohse who had 3 2+ WAR years or, obviously, Santana who has a couple cy youngs. Detroit has had a payroll advantage that certainly should be considered. I'm not sure Ryan hoarding prospects is a bad thing, in fact, I think it's a good thing. Sure, not every prospect pans out but for a small market team like the Twins were in his first run, it made sense. (And he did make a few prospect trades - Keilty for Stewart, Tyler and Bowyer for Castillo). And turning Roberto Kelly into Joe Mays seems like a good thing, certainly better than giving up a top prospect for him. (And the Schertzer trade was very Twins like - Tigers parted with 2 major leaguers - Granderson and Edwin Jackson - and received 4 parts back, including two very young pitchers in Schertzer and Schlereth. They didn't trade any prospects there).

Ryan is uncomfortable with trades? In his first go around he traded for a multiple cy young winner as well as Mays, Milton, Liriano, Nathan (7 combined all star games), Silva, Boof, Lohse. In his second go around he's already traded for Meyer, May and Worley.

Changing the subject just slightly, Joe Posnanski wrote a really fun article on his old blog about hitting perfectly in one draft. He used the 99 draft and wondered what would have happened if the Royals hit on their pick from every round. So, in the 3rd round they took Morneau instead of whoever they took. And in the 10th they took Pujols, etc. Anyway, it was a pretty good team. Couldn't find the link though.

Be interesting in hearing more about the Stewart / Red Sox agreement. Fun list, thanks!

One last point worth making. For most of Ryan's first run, starting pitching wasn't the issue. He rarely needed to sign a FA starter. I think Rogers was about it from 02 until he retired. We had enough in-house arms acquired through a variety of means to make our rotation.

I'm not sure about some of your comments but I think one possible reason they wanted to move Benson might have been b/c they were moving Arcia back down to AAA and they didn't want Benson influencing Arcia in any bad ways. Callis had an interesting podcast a few weeks back that touched on the difference in attitude at AAA than any other minor league level. I don't think it's fair to say the Twins weren't big backers of Benson. He was one of the few players they went overslot for back in Carl's draft days. They promoted him straight from AA to the majors. I wish it had worked out for Benson. I think he could've been a nice 4th OF option and a bat that could punish LH pitching for us. I was hoping they'd give him another chance at the ML level this year but he's so far back on the depth chart at this point that he's not going to be part of our future.

Not basing it on "so far." I think Worley is better than he's shown but I really like May. I think it's the type of trade the Twins should be making. Most baseball analysts agreed. If one of those two turn out to be a consistent rotation piece over the next 6 years, the trade works out. Solid move.

Another difference between Hicks and Arcia (other than having a viable replacement for one), is that Hicks is already 23. That extra year with Arcia would still let him become a FA and be younger than Hicks will be (assuming Hicks doesn't get sent down sometime in the next few years).

I didn't read the Souhan piece and I'm honestly not sure what to think of Ryan with free agent picks. For his first term, he had considerable payroll hinderances that wouldn't let him to much other than get the scraps. Now he does have payroll ability but the team is not ready to compete so it might not make sense to spend 100m to get 79-82 wins. (Others might disagree). It'll be interesting to see what happens in a few years when the team is ready to compete. I hope that's when we would see Ryan make the bigger deals that help a contending team. He's already made a number of good small signings (Burton, Fein, Carroll, Willingham, Doumit) and solid trades (Revere, Span, Liriano) that show he knows how to make moves now and isn't in over his head. And the Pohlad's seem to have enough faith in him that he didn't reach for a pitcher in last years draft and instead took BPA. That suggests that he'll be around long enough for us to see how he does in a few years.

I agree. This is a pitching heavy draft so unless Bryant falls to them, I think they'll take a pitcher. But I think they'll take the pitcher highest on their board, regardless of whether or not he's a college guy or HS guy.

Exactly. Back end starter isn't an insult. Esp for a 10th round pick. Hope he makes it.

I think his ceiling is a backend starter. I think Sickels rated him a C+ prospect who was a very smart pitcher who had limited stuff. But they'll certainly let him start for now.

I think last years draft shows the Twins will go BPA over need.

Ditto.

I have pretty high confidence in our FO based on their successful track record. But I think, more importantly, the Pohlad's seem to have it too. They got rid of Ryan's interm label after last year. Ryan has continued to heap praise on Gardy and he hired him the first place so I suspect both will be here until/unless the Pohlads dictate otherwise.

I'm sure it happens a lot. The Rockies demoted one of thier top prospects to EST for missing a team flight (although rumors suggested other issues as well). A few games on the bench isn't anything to get too upset over.

I'm not so sure, there seemed to be a lot of complaining when the team was 18-17.

I'm sorta ok with this move even though I think it was done, at least in part, for service time/payroll considerations. He's striking out a lot and Parmelee should get one last shot, even though I don't think he'll hit enough.

Plouffe isn't going to block Sano. But maybe they move him to 1b or RH DH thing down the road.

There are some really hot women in Florida who are more than willing to say hi and other things (especially other things) to young, athletic millionaires.

That's a fair point.

Posturing. No way he turns down 4m or so.

No, it's a bit of a problem. Sano and Harrison might not stick at 3rd. Rosario (looking better) is still an experiment at 2nd and Polanco/Michael behind him. Santana might be a shortstop. We have CF covered with Hicks/Buxton but I don't know if we have any good catching prospects coming up. Maybe the AA guy?