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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Since being pushed down the lineup, Hicks is hitting .226/.347/.452 with 12 walks to 15 strike outs. His babip in that time is only .244 so he might have been a little unlucky in there. He's also managed about 1.1 bWAR in that time (it bottomed out at -0.3). He does have a splits issue but I think he's been a much better player since getting out of the leadoff spot. I have no problem with them keeping him up here for awhile longer. If he goes into another 0-10game stretch, demote him to AAA but, for now, he's improving.
  2. gunnarthor
    After his age 30 season he had 354 HR and had just signed with the White Sox in a great hitters park. Seemed pretty easy to imagine him getting to 500. Then he was beyond awful in his first year with the Sox (it was great) and only hit 11 homers and posting a 54 OPS+. Last year, he bounced back and hit 41 and the six he has this year brings his career total to 412. But he's now 33 and really struggling again. Hicks has a higher OBP than Dunn. It's hard to see him getting enough PA over the next 2-3 years to hit 88 HRs.
  3. gunnarthor
    Well, he certainly wouldn't be the worst #4 pick we could manage. I guess I'm growing on him over Manaea.
  4. gunnarthor
    I guess I think Sullivan would slot in above De Vries, Deduno and Walters and behind Gibson and maybe Hendriks. But yeah, he's nothing more than a backend starter at best but that still might make him a good fit if we some of our starters get hurt or just pitch really bad.
  5. gunnarthor
    Minor League Pitchers With Out Clauses Nearing: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com MLBtrade rumors has an article on some minor league pitchers who can opt out in the next month. One name is Sean O'Sullivan who we all love from his days of getting destroyed as a Royals pitcher. But he's still only 25 and he's really having a pretty decent run in (what I believe is) hitter friendly PCL. 2-2, 43ip, 4.19 ERA, 3.27fip, 8.2k/9 3K/BB. He can opt out on 6/1. I still want Gibson in the rotation but I wouldn't mind adding him, esp if Worley or Pelfrey needs to go to AAA for a bit.
  6. gunnarthor
    Apologies if this was posted elsewhere. BA has their first 100 out - 2013 Top 100 Draft Prospects (May 10): Jonathan Gray Takes Top Spot - BaseballAmerica.com Their top 6 are Gray, Appel, Bryant, Frazier, Meadows, Stewart. At 43, the Twins 2nd pick, they have Oral Roberts' Gonzalez, who I'd be quite happy with. But they also have a few other pitchers - Windle, Ziomek, Hursch - listed below that. I'd be happy with any of them. Boldt is #58.
  7. gunnarthor
    One has a slightly better track record than the other, is beloved by Twins fans, always seems to work hard and suffered injuries that wrecked his career. Some of that perception might not be fair but I think it's real. But I'm honestly not sure why you think Plouffe shouldn't be treated negatively by fans (not that I think he is). Is it just to be contrarian? He's had about 1000 ML PA and he's hit .239/.297/.423 97 OPS+. He's 27. He's been worth about 0 WAR for his career. While he has some pop, that's been about it so far. I do actually think there might be reason for hope with Plouffe. A lot of hitters need about 1000 PA before they figure things out (although one hopes they'd be younger). Morneau's batting line, for instance, wasn't much better his first 1000 or so PA either (although he was a lot younger). But what's his ceiling at this point? A 2 WAR player? At age 28? And the negativity was made by Souhan, not the Twins (unless we think the Twins used Souhan to send a message, which is certainly possible). And Morny is in the last year of his contract so there wasn't really a reason to talk about him in the article.
  8. gunnarthor
    At this point it looks like we just arguing around each other. I'm baffled on how you (and others) can stick to your position when it's demonstrably wrong and how you continue to ignore facts that you find inconvenient. In any event, this thread asked were the M&Ms worth building around and I think yes.
  9. gunnarthor
    Souhan: Time to impress for borderline players | StarTribune.com Basically says that Plouffe, Dozier, Parmelee and Worley shouldn't get too comfortable since the team finally has some potential replacements coming up the pike in Sano, Rosario, Arcia and guys like Meyer and Gibson. The more interesting thing is that Souhan seems to think that Sano/Rosario both could be up a lot quicker than might be typical - suggesting next year as a possibility. Worley's probably playing the worst of that group but is probably the most likely to be part of any long term plans. I do think the other 3 are viewed as stop gaps right now.
  10. gunnarthor
    The Twins single season doubles record is 47, held by Morneau. The franchise record, counting the Washington days, is 51 by Mickey Vernon, an underrated but "professional" hitter. Would be nice to see Mauer break that record. But I don't think he has any more games at Fenway.
  11. gunnarthor
    It's pretty rare. I don't think the Twins should have targeted anyone over the last two years, they were too far away from competing to do it. I do think a team close to the top should use money on FA to get over the top, something the Twins couldn't do in their small market days but is something they should do now that they are at TF.
  12. gunnarthor
    Well, Carroll, Willingham and Doumit greatly outperformed those three for one so it's a bit of a reach to say it was a switch out. It was an improvement. And happened to be cheaper.
  13. gunnarthor
    No, it just means you use your money wisely and actually use it on elite talent, like Mauer.
  14. gunnarthor
    I think Sickels called Baxendale a C+ sleeper prospect. He doesn't throw hard but is smart and has good control. Basically, your prototypical "Twins pitcher" typeset.
  15. gunnarthor
    Even ignoring the career year, Mauer had a larger, longer track record of success and was younger.
  16. gunnarthor
    Mauer had a much better track record of success before he signed his contract. As pointed out before, Grienke had 3.5 1.5 3.6 WAR over the previous 3 years when he signed his big contract at age 29. Mauer had posted 3.9 5.6 7.8 the previous 3 years and signed his deal at 27. Hitters also tend to be better long term bets than pitchers.
  17. gunnarthor
    I get what you're saying and I so wish we had 5 Santana types but I'm not sure we're not overrating K's a little bit. Our last good team (2010) was 27th in k/9, I believe, but #1 in K/BB and #2 in pitching WAR. Our staffs were generally top half in WAR (and k/bb) even in 07-09 and well above that in other years. In 2011 the staff imploded and bottomed out last year but I don't want to put too much weight on those two years since even the Twins knew they were using #7 type pitchers far too much.
  18. gunnarthor
    That's my bad. In another thread (or maybe this one) someone suggested both guys and I just put down 200+ for them and kept doing it.
  19. gunnarthor
    I wonder if there is an-Appel like concern with him, too. In that Boras might want him to be paid like the guy we saw in the Cape which could cause him to fall pretty far and then not sign at all.
  20. gunnarthor
    Burton's fastball avgs 91mph, slightly less than Pelfrey's.
  21. gunnarthor
    SSS is going to be a big part of this right now. I do think the team stresses no walks more than get strikeouts and you see Correa has a career hight SO/BB ratio. Pelfrey is coming back from TJ surgery so his numbers were going to be skewed anyway (he somehow has a 3.68fip). I have no idea what's wrong with Worley. He's plain frightening although he does have his highest GB% of his career. But I have a hard time claiming that the Twins are actively not trying to get strikeouts. I mean Ryan got pitchers like Santana and Liriano and went after high-K minor leaguers May and Meyer this offseason (and Johnson has been drafting a ton of flame throwers). It could be something as simple as economic value in free agency where GB pitchers like Correia were cheaper (even on a per/WAR basis) than flashy strike out pitchers like Sanchez. The other point would be that a guy like Burton has hit his career high in K/9 as a Twin and they have some good kguys in the pen, who also don't walk many. And that's not necessarily the same as hard throwing guys in the pen.
  22. gunnarthor
    No, his post was meant to show how ridiculous your posts were, especially about irrefutable facts (that weren't facts or irrefutable) and how the FO works. His sarcasm worked but you didn't get it. But I guess it's good to know that you thought 200m for Grienke or 80+ for Sanchez was a good idea.
  23. gunnarthor
    Well, in most of the years, the team was in small market mode but they did manage to extend Santana and Hunter, among others b/c they didn't blow that payroll on mediocre free agents. In the first year of the TF, they added FAs Thome (3.5 WAR), Hudson (2.7) and Pavano (4.0). So I guess this gets us back to the same old BS argument. One side argues that Ryan never adds big time free agents while ignoring his budget constraints. They bitch that the team never made win-now moves but then ignore that Smith added several good FAs to go with the M&M core in 2010. And now Ryan has managed to add some quality free agents his first year back - Carroll (3.5 WAR), Willingham (3.3), Doumit (1.3), Burton (1.3), Fein (1.0) but we get more ***** about not spending money on unnamed free agents.
  24. gunnarthor
    Many hitters were.
  25. gunnarthor
    Seriously, who did you want? Ryan has made some good sensible free agent additions that helped the team now without risking future payroll - Willingham, Doumit, Correia. Should the Twins have spent 80+ million and 5 years on a consistent 2.5-3.5 WAR pitcher like Sanchez? 200 on Grienke? Dempster's deal looked doable as did any of those other 1 year deals that were out there. But if you're going to demand that the Twins should spend big in FA, show us how it should've been done.
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