gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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That's not how it works. Arcia stills needs about 10 or so days in the minors for the Twins to have that extra year.
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Were the M & M Boys Worth Building Around?
gunnarthor replied to bwille's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The big question mark of 06 was what if Liriano and Radke had stayed healthy? Radke pitched in the post season but he didn't have a shoulder. But if we had a healthy Liriano, Santana and Radke lined up? Too bad that didn't work out. -
I think there are a couple different issues getting thrown at each other. I do think that 1) The Twins are no longer in the Metrodome and they should be able to spend a lot more than they are spending on payroll. Even this year. 2) Free agents are a horrible long term investment that can really hurt a team trying to rebuild, which we are. A Dempster like deal would have been fine and doable, a Sanchez deal is far too risky on a pitcher of Sanchez's ability i.e.- he's not a true ace. His past three seasons he's been a solid but not spectacular pitcher. Not a 16m/yr guy. 3) I am willing to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt for now b/c 1) he's never had the big payroll opportunities before and 2) he has successfully built up contending teams on low budgets. I feel that this current wave of Twins prospects making the majors this year and over the next few years should be able to compete and that Ryan had better help that group with FA signings. But those signings should be done to supplement those teams and should be the last thing done. 4) Lastly, I'm not a big fan of spending a ton of money to go from a 70 win team and top 5 pick to a 75 win team and a top 15 pick.
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Heavily on Stewart. That would be new. Risky but reasonable pick for Johnson.
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Incidentally, KLaw agrees with the Twins plan to let Buxton stay down and see the league again: [h=6]Ian (OK)[/h] How long would you keep Buxton in low A? Let the league get a second shot at him (Twins plan apparently). [h=6]Klaw (2:01 PM) [/h] Yes, make him go around the league twice.
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Wouldn't spending 43m in 2017 to help build around a base of Hicks, Arcia, Meyer, Gibson, Sano be better then having that 43m be wasted on two roster spots of broken down/bad pitchers? I can't see how wasting that money isn't helpful.
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You sign the right guys. Twins extended Santana and got all but one of his elite years. Mauer was arguably the best player in baseball. Morneau wasn't at that level but he was an MVP with a pretty good track record and signed a reasonable long term deal. The extension deals we used on Kubel, Cuddy and Baker were reasonable as well. Grienke and Sanchez are nice pitchers but neither is a true ace and it isn't worth spending nearly 50m a year for them over the next 6 years. Grienke has put up 3.4, 1.5, 3.6 WAR the previous 3 years. (Diamond put up a 2.4 WAR last year. Correia has 1.3 already this year). Sanchez put up 3.2, 3.8, 2.4 WAR the previous 3 years. Those are good numbers but not even remotely elite. Hell, Edwin Jackson was 2.1, 2.9, 2.0 WAR the last three years.
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Well, the 43m the team would be spending on Grienke and Sanchez in 2017 could really screw up the prime years of our younger guys, esp if those guys are just broken down pitchers at that point, which is likely.
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Seattle certainly agrees with you.
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Spending money poorly is a great way to make your team worse in the short and especially in the long run. Grienke is already hurt and will be out for a bit. Sanchez is 29 and his next 200 ip season will be his first. Incidentally, 29 was also the age of Johan Santana's last truly elite season. Those aren't the guys you gamble on. Get a foundation established and build around that. Which looks like it is exactly what the Twins are doing.
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Think you're over reading this. The Twins have made it clear that they want Buxton to get a second look at the league before they promote him. He won't stay in low A all season. The Rays had Upton play 100 games at low A before they promoted him. And, while he got to the majors at 19, he spent his age 20 season in the minors.
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Amy Pond. Oh, wait, you're talking about baseball?
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The problem is there isn't a Harper, Verlander or Buxton at 4. I want the team to go BPA at #4 but making silly strawmen arguments isn't really helping your case. Right now there is a lot of meh after the top 3 are gone. According to BA, Bryant, Frazier and Meadows would have been in the 8-10 range in last years draft. It's not a good draft. I want the Twins to take whoever they think is the best player at #4, without concerns for signability, agents, position or age. If they think it's a HS catcher, fine. If they think it's Moran, fine.
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So you think the year the Twins should open up their wallet is after a 96 loss season? Sanchez and Grienke would have made this team into a WS challenger? That makes sense to you? Only teams that might apply advanced stats know how to save money? Surprising. Ryan was the only GM of a small market team that kept his team competitive while changing out the nucleus of his team. And moneyball's author first wanted to write about Ryan and the Twins and went to the A's only after Ryan said no.
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Yeah, I didn't know what to make of that report either. Plouffe and Parmelee aren't exactly exciting players to build around.
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Would you rather have Buxton and Berrios or Correa and McCullers?
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Or, we could ask the Twins, Rays and A's who have been competitive with low payrolls b/c they didn't waste money on risky free agents and instead built with cheap young talent. I think the Twins should spend more in certain circumstances but this year was not one of them so I don't really care about the payroll as much. In 2010 they had a large payroll and expect in the future they will again.
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SI.com's mock has us taking Frazier. McGuire goes 6th. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130510/mlb-mock-draft-2013-jonathan-gray-dave-perkin/?sct=hp_t11_a3
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I want the Twins to stick to BPA but as long as they spend all of their draft budget, I won't kick and scream too much. A little, maybe, but not too much.
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I doubt Correia finishes with a 60 ERA+. But the more important point, in my view, is that this starting rotation has managed to hold up early in the season. As the season goes on, we'll have some reinforcements - Gibson may be up soon, with Hendriks and Deduno behind. Had we rolled the dice on Baker and Marcum and Blanton .... we sure wouldn't be .500
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Under Carl Pohlad, I'd believe that but I'll give his sons some benefit of the doubt. Not much, but some. But if we don't spend all our allocated draft amount after dropping payroll ....
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Reese McGwire pops up again. Certainly some smoke there.
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I'm not sure anyone suggested bringing him back but he's certainly the type that would have been under normal discussion.
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I'd be disappointed but I'd trust the team to get the BPA on their draft boards. That's why they get the big bucks and I post on message boards. But I'd really be bummed. I like our position player prospects but want more high end pitching prospects. I suppose if they added two more blue chippers (and really, Boldt at 43 would be a good thing) I'd have to expect that they'd need to make another trade for pitching. Willingham will be dealt but I don't know how big a prospect he'll bring back. Dempster, when traded, got 2 pretty decent prospects. I'd want something like that.
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Thanks