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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Of the FA pitchers, I'd be ok with Masterson. I'd rather go with May, Meyer, Milone than the others. No way should Liriano come back. He's the crazy ex-girlfriend. You broke up for a reason, don't forget that. Ryan could also make a trade or two to add to the pitching depth (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins added Cody Martin in the rule v draft and gave him every opportunity to win the 5th spot).
  2. gunnarthor
    My concern is that Mauer isn't adjusting to defenses well. You see that his babip was about where it usually is but his iso was really low. I'm worried that the shifts are catching everything hit hard (doubles down the LF line) so Mauer responded by hitting more singles and going for less power. I think Mauer needs to alter his approach at the plate more to try and hit the ball to RF and the CF gaps. I'm not sure he can/will do that. (Someone smarter than me could look at hit charts for a better guess). If you want to be in the glass half full camp, you can suggest that Mauer can still probably put up something close to a .400 OBP and, if he did that over 150 games, that's be pretty darn good.
  3. gunnarthor
    I'm less optimistic. His babip was pretty good this year, so he wasn't really unlucky. His strikes out more, walks less and has lost a lot of power. And he can't stay healthy. Pretty bad signs for a rebound at this point as he'll be 32 next year. A lot of good players were done at 32. I had hoped that he'd age like Molitor but that's looking less likely. My guess is he puts up a .280/.350/.390 line and plays about 125 games.
  4. gunnarthor
    I don't know but i doubt Ryan goes anywhere. He stayed here during the contraction mess, he's set for life, the Pohlad's are basically letting him run the show as he sees fit. Maybe he can get a raise out of this but I'd be stunned if he left. If he did leave, I think at this late date, Anthony would be the obvious replacement but they might only keep him for a year or so.
  5. gunnarthor
    Not sure exactly what you're going for Jokin but the Twins signed Willingham, Correia and Fein after the WM and traded Doumit as well. I do expect that the Twins do a few things at the WM but I also think that they are mostly in a waiting game on the young prospects/arms. A few minor moves might happen but nothing that excites anyone, I would guess.
  6. gunnarthor
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins moved Pinto. Suzuki is the catcher for a few years and Pinto's not that young.
  7. gunnarthor
    I think you're trying to put too much valuation into a statement that really wasn't about value. If someone said, the price of A is $2 and B is $1, what do you want for C? And someone says "give me the average", I'd assume C is $1.50. If a lady asked me, what do you look like, I'd say, "I'm average looking." I think Ryan's valuation of Hunter is more like the second statement. At least that is how I read it.
  8. gunnarthor
    Actually, he almost said that exactly. He said he wasn't as quick as he had been and the Twins liked him for a lot of reasons, including things not on the ball field.
  9. gunnarthor
    And here's their first mock: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103053582/2015-mock-draft-callis-mayo-call-top-10 Both have the Twins taking Vanderbilt righty Walker Buehler
  10. gunnarthor
    I think Ryan's actions have shown that he clearly knows how to build a baseball team. The problem I have with your POV is that I don't think the Twins (or any team) should care much about the stats that are available to the public. Ryan has stated that he talks to his stat people before signing Hunter, Correia, Pelfrey, Willingham, Suzuki, Hughes. We don't know what Goins tells him but Goins did imply on TD that the Twins thought Correia would pitch about as well as he did here, so they were clearly using some information we weren't privy to. Despite having a horrible OF defense, Hughes put up the 3rd highest pitching WAR in the AL last year, so something must have worked. And most national bloggers have long left the Twins out of the list of non-stat teams. Phillies, Royals, Giants tend to dominate those lists.
  11. gunnarthor
    I think Crick's status has taken a bit of a hit. He wasn't able to stay healthy last year and his control is pretty rough. I think he ends up in the bullpen. I don't think the Twins would trade a cost controlled asset like Plouffe - who is a pretty solid third baseman - for a deal centered around Crick. But Crick and Susac together makes some sense to the Twins. But I don't think it happens. If Plouffe were on the block, I think other teams could come up with better offers than SF.
  12. gunnarthor
    I don't think the Twins trade Plouffe. They might not be competing for the division but they should be pushing .500. Getting rid of Plouffe doesn't help and Sano is still at least half a season away and even when he's ready, it's possible to use Plouffe elsewhere. Obviously, we'll listen to any offer but it would have to be pretty amazing - Crick + Susac + something.
  13. gunnarthor
    I think you're wrong here Mike. Obviously he talked with Jack Goins about Hunter so he got some input from the "stat" point of view. I don't particularly care if Ryan gives any weight to stats on fangraphs or B-R. The Twins (and all baseball teams) have more access to stats than we do. Individuals in the A's and Red Sox systems have been critical of published WAR results. So I don't think Ryan should take flax for not caring about a system of stats that has been demonstratively wrong on both valuation and measurement. I would hope and expect that Ryan (and Goins) considered RF playing area, positional shifts (or lack thereof) along with more than one years worth of defensive data (scouting or stat) o make a determination on Hunter. The people attacking this move aren't. I think it's silly that people think the Twins, of all orgs, are dismissive of defensive importance. But they might trust other measurements over fangraphs. I've pointed this out before but the Twins have had success with "bad defenders" coming here. Orlando Hudson had -14 and -5 UZR the two years prior to coming here but managed nearly a 11 (and first in the AL) in 2010.
  14. gunnarthor
    The problem with defensive stats is that they might not be measured correctly and they might not be valued correctly. If those two numbers are wrong, you can get some pretty funky conclusions. Most of us probably like Dozier's defense at second. Yet he's 29th out of all second baseman with 300 innings. His negative value was equal to Hunter's 2013 defensive value (which was better than Stanton's value). I do think the various systems can be used helpfully to make a pretty good list but the value part, I'm much less reliant on. And I think RF in Comerica Park is a huge issue compared to most RFs. And I think positioning a player (like the Twins did with Orlando Hudson) can make a huge impact on the numbers.
  15. gunnarthor
    Meh. Hunter was better by offensive numbers like oWAR, wRC, wOBA, 2b, HR, slg, avg, OPS+, OPS etc. (He also didn't strike out as much). Defensive metrics (which has been discussed in a lot of different threads) are the things that put Mauer over Hunter.
  16. gunnarthor
    He won't get in but he'll get some votes. He lands in that group of "professional hitters" not in the HOF. Constantly pretty good but never a top player. Baines, Bernie Williams, Staub, Oliver etc. Might get into the Hall of Very Good and the Twins HOF.
  17. gunnarthor
    Who ends up with the better oWAR this season? Last year, Hunter had a oWAR over 2 while Mauer's was 1.7.
  18. gunnarthor
    I'm not opposed to the idea of trying to grab someone like Bruce (or others in CIncy) but not at that price.
  19. gunnarthor
    Yeah, here's the deadspin link: http://deadspin.com/report-josh-donaldson-billy-beane-had-heated-argument-1666138609 Seems like Twins aren't the only team that gets upset when players take a day off.
  20. gunnarthor
    Actually, no. Santana, Vargas, Dozier and Plouffe. That was it.
  21. gunnarthor
    Here's a couple rational reasons to keep Nunez 1) Twins might trade Plouffe, which opens third for Escobar and Nunez is the UI. 2) Who wants to get rid of UI that has a higher slg% than your starting first baseman? (admittedly, a cheap shot). 3) Nunez is a good enough type of guy to have a 40 man spot. With his arb picked up, it's more likely that they could slip him through waivers and stash him in AAA for when they needed him b/c other teams are less likely to pick up waiver claims over the minimum. That makes Nunez the replacement for Berneir. As to your other question, I don't believe anything would prevent a team from only having 35 players on its 40 man roster although the MLBPA would certainly raise a fuss.
  22. gunnarthor
    Sure. If I was the Twins I'd say, "look what happened when Hughes, a flyball pitcher, came to us. 3rd best AL pitcher in WAR."
  23. gunnarthor
    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/284567371.html "I’m thrilled because Hunter is one of my favorite people in sports. I’ve known him for more than 20 years. I watched him evolve from a raw high school kid from Arkansas who did not know what a slider was into not only a star, but an ambassador for the entire sport. .... I found him to be the most engaging and compelling personality in a sports world filled with robots. I watched him urge teammates to compete. I watched him turn the Twins’ clubhouse into the most entertaining space in sports, and I watched that clubhouse become a morgue after he left."
  24. gunnarthor
    Not sure. It could turn out ok if some things break right. Hicks could be a good defender in left, maybe Buxton rushes to the majors. In any event, I doubt most players put much stock in defensive numbers. Fangraphs had a few articles on that last year and most players don't know about WAR, UZR etc. But a lot probably think "hey, Hunter, he's good." And leave it at that.
  25. gunnarthor
    Actually, it's just half a million. If they released him, they'd still have to pay some other guy 500K so it's really just 500K or so over the next guy in line.
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