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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Seems like a solid deal for both teams. Heyward has only one more year of control and relief pitchers are pretty interchangeable. But neither Jenkins or Miller look to be anything better than solid #4 pitchers.
  2. gunnarthor
    I wasn't surprised at May - frankly, he could be higher depending on how you want to rank prospects. He's a pretty secure bet to pitch in the majors (again). Some of the guys ahead of him may never make it. Solid depth in our system, although I would have been a lot happier if Buxton, Sano, May and Meyer had lost their eligibility by playing more in the majors this year. Rosario might have had his AFL success play into the ranking - I'd probably have put Thorpe above him. I think Burdi is in the majors by the all-star break next year. I believe BA, Fangraphs and Sickels have all put out rankings already.
  3. gunnarthor
    I'd add that it might not be a great stat for using as a predictive tool but I think too many of us seem to say that "well, Dozier was a 5 WAR player this year, he'll be that again."
  4. gunnarthor
    I've been a big supporter of Masterson - I think last year was an injury caused problem and his GB rate and K rates would make a good transition to TF. I like Hunter as a 4/5th OF type, but not as a starter. If he's willing to do that, I'm ok with it. Rios does nothing for me. As others have mentioned, Rasmus might be a more entertaining attempt.
  5. gunnarthor
    ESPN linked to this piece by Posnanski on Bill James. Bill James doesn't have nice things to say about WAR. http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/bill-james-statistical-revolution/ “Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t. But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and … they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but … we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are.” A few years ago, Posnanski also noted that the A's internal WAR system ranked Cabrera ahead of Trout. (Although I don't have the link for that, sorry). I know a lot of us have used WAR as a crutch to evaluate players and performance. But perhaps we should show a healthier skepticism toward it?
  6. gunnarthor
    Yeah, it does look like some room for a trade but I don't think either Santana or Escobar brings back a top 100 prospect. I don't think Polanco would have any value to the Mets as they seem to be in "win-now" mode. I guess the biggest question mark is whether the Mets believe that either Santana or Escobar can be good defensive shortstops.
  7. gunnarthor
    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/100790570/pipeline-inbox-is-twins-prospect-byron-buxton-unlucky-or-injury-prone This came out a few days ago but Mayo answered someone's question about whether or not Buxton was unlucky or injury prone. Mayo, the chief prospect guy at mlb.com, went with unlucky. "The injuries the Twins center fielder has suffered are all independent of each other. ... Buxton is not running into walls with reckless abandon. He doesn't keep reinjuring a knee or a hamstring, where a chronic problem would be a concern."
  8. gunnarthor
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/mets-sign-michael-cuddyer.html Rumor is it's 2/22. And they give Colorado the 15th pick in next years draft.
  9. gunnarthor
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11851971/orlando-thomas-former-minnesota-vikings-player-dies-42 I always liked Thomas. I remember him hitting Shannon Sharpe so hard on a play that he both 1) knocked Sharpe out and 2) intercepted the ball at the same time. Probably something we don't celebrate as much 15 years later. Thomas was 42.
  10. gunnarthor
    As others have said, Sickels is a hard grader and of all the major professional prospectors out there, he's probably the "lowest" on Buxton. So that's a good thing. He gave the Twins 14 players at B- or better. For comparison, Atlanta has seven players graded that well. Give Ryan and the FO some credit, they've amassed a really deep talent pool in the minors. Hopefully, it'll pay off in the majors soon.
  11. gunnarthor
    I've been a big advocate for Masterson and hope they pursue him like they did Hughes.
  12. gunnarthor
    This. The strike outs are an issue and a few players had good halves but not full seasons. But I think Bruno certainly deserves more time.
  13. gunnarthor
    I don't know. Mauer said it wasn't the concussion - that ruined his 2013 season - but it was other stuff this year. His back, IIRC. It just seems like Joe's injury history is "CONCUSSION! YOU CAN NOT QUESTION THIS!"
  14. gunnarthor
    If Mauer plays 280 games in his age 33-35 seasons, I'll buy you dinner.
  15. gunnarthor
    That's clearly the biggest perception of him. Might be true. His numbers with runners on are slightly better but most player's numbers are. And, for most of his career, he has benefited from having very fast runners on base in front of him (when they are on), so a single might score a few more than normal anyway. His plate appearances do aggravate me some but I've sorta come to accept it. He is what he is and it won't change. If he can put up a 400ish OBP, keep him in the two-spot and ignore everything else. His inability to stay on the field is a much bigger problem. Of course, if he is only a .270/.350/.350 hitter now, we have a huge issue.
  16. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I tend to agree. I think he starts the season in AA. He might struggle out of the gate but by June I think it'll all be clicking for him (so long as he isn't hurt). After that, he could be called up at anytime.
  17. gunnarthor
    Now Winston's lawyer has tweeted the accusers name. While probably legal, things like that are usually not done, even in a civil case. The argument is that it makes victims of rape less likely to come forward, either out of fear or shame, if they know the other side will publicize them. http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/05/jameis-winston-david-cornwell-rape-case-tweet
  18. gunnarthor
    Some good news here. His ceiling and scouting reports still look very good http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25001 "The 2014 season wasn't Byron Buxton's year. He spent time on the disabled list with multiple wrist injuries and a concussion sustained in an outfield collision in his first game at Double-A. He went to the AFL looking to make up for lost time. While his AFL season was also cut short after he dislocated the middle finger on his left hand, he first proved that his elite tools were intact. More importantly, his potential impact to the Twins remains practically unchanged, other than a year delay in his timeline. The Twins enter the offseason with a murky outfield picture, but Buxton’s lost developmental year inhibits his ability to take advantage of the opportunity—though a premium athlete like Buxton could hold his own while taking his lumps and learning hard lessons at the major-league level. He was already expected to open 2015 in the minors, at least for financial reasons, but his loss of development time may necessitate spending the entire 2015 season there. The tools he showcased in the AFL were as advertised: plus-plus bat speed with a loose swing with a quick-twitch trigger; an 80 runner in center with a plus arm and plus accuracy. One of the highlights of the AFL was his stolen base off of Rays C Justin O'Connor, who popped a 1.84 attempting but couldn’t throw Buxton out. The takeaway from his brief AFL stint is that in spite of the injuries the tools remain intact—it's just a question of how well they'll play at the highest level of competition."
  19. gunnarthor
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25002 Always fun to read these things, includes grades. Here is their conclusion: "Cuddyer is still a quality major league hitter and can help a team in the clubhouse. Unfortunately, he doesn't provide any value in the field or on the bases. With teams much more cognizant on defensive metrics and the value quality defense can provide, I have a tough time believing any team besides the Rockies in the NL would be willing to sign him. An AL team looking for a solid bat at DH for two years could do worse than Cuddyer, and his leadership ability will only increase his value to a team that decides he's worth the investment."
  20. gunnarthor
    Maybe, but no one who tests positive repeatedly after testing began (ARod, Manny) are going to get any benefit of the doubt. They'll never get in.
  21. gunnarthor
    One of the bigger problems with Calcaterra's piece is him perpetuating a myth that the Twins had players play through pain/hurt more than others. (or that they had Morneau play with a concussion) The idea that he thinks Mauer is the best player on the Twins is kinda sad too. As to Mauer, I'm kind of done with it. It's always been something (knee, back, butt, head, wrist, putting off surgery etc) and people either go out of their way to make excuses for him or they vilify him. He is what he is at this point. Anyone expecting him to play more than 130 games at age 32 and up are just hoping. He can't do it.
  22. gunnarthor
    http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/11827107/new-york-yankees-alex-rodriguez-bother-apologizing-ped-use Shocking, but it turns out ARod was using PEDs when he was arguing in the press that he wasn't. He told DEA agents he took human growth hormone (among others) and paid his cousin 900,000 to remain silent on his drug use. But flags fly forever. ARod killed the Twins in 3 post season series hitting .390 (16 for 41) with 3 doubles and 3 HRs and a .444 OBP.
  23. gunnarthor
    Well, the reality is Mauer isn't going to be the best player on any Twins team going forward. Molitor's ability to get Arcia, Hicks, Gibson, May, Meyer etc to become good everyday MLers is going to be a lot more important than whatever we get out of Mauer at this point.
  24. gunnarthor
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11755817/mlb-postseason-shares-colorful-history Fun read on players dividing postseason shares. Includes some nice quotes by LaTroy Hawkins and how they gave a bunch of money to a minor league coaches widow. Also, Jim Caple has been one of ESPN's best writers for years. Glad he is still with them.
  25. gunnarthor
    This I agree with. If the Twins could take on all his salary (which they won't) and not have to surrender a 1st tier prospect (which the Rockies would want), I'd be really happy. But since neither thing will happen ...
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