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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Another poster mentioned this - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/offseason-outlook-minnesota-twins-5.html Lots of stuff in there, including projected arbitration dollars. But also this - "One interesting point to consider (a topic which Andrew Bryz-Gornia noted at SB Nation’s Twinkie Town) is the future of Plouffe. The former first-rounder quietly had an excellent season (3+ rWAR and fWAR) and looks to have found a home at third base. The only problem is that Miguel Sano is the Twins’ heir apparent at third and could force his way onto the Major League roster next season. It’s possible that the Twins could once again shift Plouffe’s position to a corner outfield spot (they employed a similar trajectory with Michael Cuddyer early in his career), but with an in-house stopgap such as Escobar under control, Plouffe strikes me as an under-the-radar trade target for teams in need of help at the hot corner."
  2. gunnarthor
    That's a pretty good explanation, Brock. Thanks.
  3. gunnarthor
    I got a warning for a post that implied Mauer wasn't smart (which, according to people who have met him, is true) which was actually relevant to the concerns in the thread that Mauer needed to make some changes and would face difficulty doing so. Meanwhile we have other threads that are killing the integrity of Ryan, St. Peter and the Pohlads - which I'm totally ok with by the way. TD has a freaking under-current of posters that posted Gardy disliked people based on their ability to read books and worse. Heck, some mods have questioned Ozzie Guillen's intelligence pretty roughly. Ricky Nolasco "stinks as a player and does nothing for the community." There is no way the my comment on Mauer was out of place and was pretty tame compared to a lot of other posts.
  4. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure that's fair to Ryan - he's traded a lot of established players for unknowns based on his belief that they will be better. I don't see a lot of fear when Ryan makes a trade. I understand you might be saying Ryan needs to make a "win-now" trade when he has the chance but we aren't there yet (and remember, Bowden turned down Garza, Baker + prospect for Soriano down the stretch in 06).
  5. gunnarthor
    Back to the topic, here's Royals blogger/grantlander/etc apology post on the trade - http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article2302371.html
  6. gunnarthor
    .256/.303 is low but it wasn't that low in this pitching rich environment (and taking his home field into account). His OPS+ was a solid 115 and he was worth roughly 3 WAR (if you like that).
  7. gunnarthor
    Maybe revenue is lower than we think b/c of the loans/interest they have to pay (to themselves) so total revenues might not actually be total revenue. Esp since our revenue numbers aren't coming from the Twins themselves. Anyone remember how the former Dodgers owner gutted that team for a personal fortune. Things like parking weren't revenue for the club. And the club owed him tons of money. It was really impressive. Anyhow, **** the Pohlads.
  8. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure coddled is the right word, but it might be. But the fact is 26 other players played more games at first base than Mauer. That's not acceptable.
  9. gunnarthor
    Stewart and Castillo. I think the Twins could/should listen on a few guys. Jose Berrios or Alex Meyer both have question marks but could bring back something in return, if the Twins were so inclined. I'll be honest and say that there's no realistic scenario where I'd be ok with Sano or Buxton being moved. But they do have some depth and if the return is a someone under a few years of control - either due to age or his contract, it's a solid idea. But it would be hard to find a solid trade that fits both teams. For example, arguably the best 10 LFers this year are Brantley, Gordon, Yelich, Marte, Upton, Cruz, Holliday, Cespedes, Gardner and Smith. Gordon, Brantley and Marte aren't going anywhere - they are key guys on playoff teams. Yelich is 22 and shouldn't be movable, even for Miami. Upton, Holliday, Smith and Gardner are all on the wrong side of 30. Cruz is a FA. Cespedes? Maybe Boston would listen.
  10. gunnarthor
    But, since they've taken over, only the Yankees and Red Sox have won more championships. Man, I was going to try and add a sarcasm emoticon but can't find them.
  11. gunnarthor
    Uff da. So Dayton Moore and the Royals got ripped pretty good for moving a top 5 prospect for Shields and Davis. The A's made a similar trade to get Samardzija and Hammel but Beane wasn't criticized as much (track records give you things like that). But was the trade any better? The two pitchers weren't that great in Oakland - Shark was solid but Hammel wasn't. Addison Russell is hitting pretty well in AA.
  12. gunnarthor
    First, Sansevere just wrote something to get page views and it's working. I can't remember the last time someone at TD linked to his column. Don't take it too seriously. Second, no one with a brain would ever put him back behind the plate. Third, something was obviously wrong with Mauer this year but I have no idea what. His babip was right around his normal lines. He clearly struck out too much and his power was gone. The next manager is going to have to get better production from him in some way. Lastly, I think there is an impression (true or not) that Mauer is coddled and it can affect how he's viewed in the clubhouse. With young guys coming up like Sano, Arcia, Pinto and Vargas and limited potential at-bats, the club house is probably not going to like benching guys for a .370 slg first baseman to get 550 PA. And Mauer (apparently) is a bit aloof so I think the new manager should worry a bit about his bubble.
  13. gunnarthor
    I'm not completely against another mid-80s payroll as I think May, Meyer and Gibson need innings at the ML level and outside of LF they seem to have young guys coming up or holding steady. But I do think they have the room to try and add talent that will grow with the Buxton/Sano future and should do so. Hughes was a great signing in that regard - still young and in his prime. Of this years FA list, I think the Twins should really go after the 24 year old Cuban OF Tomas (IIRC). And Rasmus is young enough to be a Hughes-like signing. A 8/200 deal for Scherzer would probably end up being a bad long term signing.
  14. gunnarthor
    I gotta admit, that group doesn't look all that exciting. (Minier and maybe Thorpe might be the exceptions). Most of the guys are in low A or lower, are too old for the level they are at or had disappointing seasons in low levels. Last year, I think we had guys like May, Polanco, Santana and Vargas in our 11-20 range. Much better depth last year. And clearly, that's part of the ebb and flow of prospect lists but outside of our top 6, I'm not really excited about anyone in the minors like I was about May or Polanco.
  15. gunnarthor
    From mlbtraderumors, "According to club president Dave St. Peter, he does not “see [payroll] going down significantly” and expects it will be “comparable to 2014.” The club opened this year with about $85MM in guarantees, and already owes nearly $60MM for 2015 before accounting for arb raises to several players, including Trevor Plouffe." So, assuming a few guys are picked up and go to arbitration (Plouffe, Milone and Swarzak look to be the big ones) and bring the payroll to about 70ish, the Twins might have room to make one Nolasco sized signing. They won't (if this report is right) be in the Lester, Scherzer, Shields etc side of the pool.
  16. gunnarthor
    At the time of the Myers trade, Dayton Moore was pretty much vilified every where. Royals traded 4 players - Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi being the best two. Myers was a top 5 prospect, Odorizzi was and is a serviceable backend starter. Royals got Shields and Wade Davis. Keith Law said that Moore was trying to save his job and the strong implication being that he was putting his needs above the team. Now, a year later, James Shields is starting KC's first playoff game since the 80s. Wade Davis is arguably the best bullpen arm in the majors. Shields and Davis combined for over 7 WAR this year. Odorizzi has been a good back end starter for the Rays but Myers took a huge step back - worth negative WAR and had his manager telling the press that Myers needed to relax, leave at bats from bothering him in the field and play smarter. The pro Royals argument at the time of the trade was that Myers was over rated, that he struck out too much to be the hitter that was expected and his defense was a secondary concern. Obviously, the Rays still have several more years of control over Myers. But he will be 24 next season.
  17. gunnarthor
    One weird thing about defensive statistics seems, at least to me, how most players aren't good. For instance, only 8 second baseman had positive defensive numbers according to fangraphs. Only 9 CFers, 3 RFers, 5 LFers. Obviously, it probably depends on what defensive stat you are using and I do think the Twins were pretty bad, but I'm not completely sure how to gauge it. Interestingly, team fielding stats show that the Astros, despite all their shifting (or because of it?), were easily the worst defensive team.
  18. gunnarthor
    Two points - first, I do think the Twins would take Aiken if he fell to 6. Second, if the Astros lose some picks, the picks stay per the CBA with the players union. They just go to a different team. (They'd lose this years #6 and next years first pick but keep this year's #2 as a 'reward' for failing to sign Aiken). My understanding is that the picks will go to two teams randomly selected. So, the best case scenario would be the Twins getting the #5 and #6 picks.
  19. gunnarthor
    Not sure if this should go here or on the More Baseball forum but .. Gardy rumors have already started. Tony La Russa, in charge of the Diamondbacks and recently hired Dave Stewart as GM, is "sure" that Gardy's name will come up when looking for a new manager. "La Russa tells Piecoro that when it comes to a manager, the team is looking for a candidate that can “lead and inspire.” Previous managerial experience sounded important to La Russa, who stated, “…when you start managing the game, the more that you’ve pulled the trigger as a manager somewhere, there is an art to that.” Asked specifically about recently dismissed Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, La Russa said he is “sure” that Gardenhire’s name will come up during their search." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/dbacks-notes-roster-gardenhire-payroll-coaches.html
  20. gunnarthor
    I hadn't really thought about this before yesterday, and I don't really have a view on who should be our next manager (although Souhan's Pro-Molitor article intrigued me). But this is what sorta surprised me as I thought about it - this is a big time plum job. A lot of guys would love to be the next Twins manager. They have an incredible amount of minor league talent coming up, a GM and FO with a reputation for loyalty. Would you rather manage the Twins or Astros right now? The Twins are (as ML teams go) pretty stable. The next manager will have to develop young players but that's true in most rebuilds. Ryan has an incredibly good reputation in baseball circles. I bet guys like Dave Martinez are really hoping to get interviewed for this job.
  21. gunnarthor
    Another draft nugget - Mac Marshall, who was part of the Astros fiasco, is transferring from LSU to a junior college, making himself eligible for the draft. He's probably not in the mix in the early first round but (right now) he's probably looked at as a solid second round talent who could easily play himself up into the first round. Probably not top 10 but still, depth. It looks like all three kids screwed over by the Astros - Aiken, Nix and Marshall - will be in this years draft. Additionally, according to fangraphs, a lot of the top kids in this draft are represented by Casey Close, who represented Aiken and Nix and with whom the Astros burned some serious bridges. That might affect their draft strategy. And lastly, the Astros still have a Nix grievance and it could, hypothetically, force them to sign him and cost them their next two first round picks. Which would be so great it certainly won't happen. http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/mac-marshall-transferring-lsu-eligible-2015-draft/
  22. gunnarthor
    I want Ozzie or Dougie Baseball.
  23. gunnarthor
    Wow, I was pretty sure he'd be back. Well, best of luck to him in the future and best of luck to Ryan in replacing him.
  24. gunnarthor
    So the season's over and we know the draft order now. Twins will pick 6th. Houston will pick 2nd (for failing to sign Brady Aiken) and 5th. They finished with the same record as the Twins but, because they were worse last year, get to pick above us this year. Top 6 picks are Arizona Houston Rockies Rangers Houston Twins Twins also have a comp pick after the second round. 6th might not be a bad place to pick. Brady Aiken will be back in the draft and he won't be picked by Houston so he could end up at 6. While a year out, this is supposed to be a pretty solid draft esp for prep bats, something the Twins tend to target anyway.
  25. gunnarthor
    Assuming Buxton and Sano are off limits, Hamels would probably require something like two of Meyer/Stewart/Berrios + Polanco and one more prospsect or MLer. And that might not be enough.
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