gunnarthor

In the comment section, someone asked whether Walker, Kepler, Jorge and Graham were org guys at this point. Chris Mellon responded: "I wouldn't say they are organizational guys, though Adam Brett Walker may be the closest of the group, but there wasn't enough traction for either of the three to be included within this one at the present time. Felix Jorge was in some initial discussions for consideration for OTR, but the concerns on the progression of the command profile were a deciding factor. I do like Jorge the most out of the mentioned group. JR Graham doesn't slot into this one. This is a very deep one and the Top 10 is going to be well represented in the Top 101 to give you an idea of how deep we consider this system."

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/01/08/tom-verducci-national-sportswriter-year National sportswriter of the year. Good for him. I've always enjoyed his writing and he clearly actually loves baseball.

I think you missing my point. Certainly, Raines was able to compile certain statistics that, too many, mark him as a HOFer. His career WAR is in that territory. Maybe other statistics. Some people think 500 HR make someone a HOFer, some argue 300 wins is a HOFer. Whatever your stat, there is someone willing to argue a benchmark number over a career that equates to a HOF career. It's the compiler argument and I don't particularly like it. Raines played in part of 23 seasons. Two can be ignored b/c they were cups of coffee before his rookie seasons. In his 21 seasons, he had (generously) 6 HOF seasons: 83-87 and 92. He had (again, generously) 7 good seasons where he was a better than avg player. And then he had 8 pretty clearly non-HOF/non-good seasons. If we looked at his seasons as percentages, his HOF/Good/Bad break down would be 28/33/38. Molitor, by contrast, had, in 20 seasons and also generously, 9 HOF seasons, another 7 better than avg seasons and only 4 rough seasons (not counting 1984). 45/35/20 Oliva managed 6 HOF seasons in only 12 years (also not counting his cup of coffee seasons and injury wrecked 1972). Another two pretty good seasons and 4 trainwreck seasons. 50/16/33 I think people who like Raines don't give enough consideration to his individual seasons. I also know that it's not quite fair to pretend all seasons are equal. Raines amassed most of his HOF and good seasons during a very strong run from 81-93, that he lost some time to 3 work stoppages, which would have improved his overall numbers and he was screwed over in 87 by ownership collusion and forced to miss a month of the season. And he was good enough/healthy enough to stick around well after his prime and not embarrass himself. But I do think that people that are pushing for Raines should give consideration to other short peak guys - like Oliva. * also, I have no idea how you think he had the equivalent of 17 full 600 PA seasons outside of his peak. Subtracting those PA from his career total, he managed about 11 years worth of PA over those other 17 seasons.

If I had a HOF vote, I might use it on Raines - I'm torn but I don't think he's a slam dunk candidate and I think he's overvalued by many. Doesn't mean he isn't a HOFer. But I do think if you think he's a HOFer, you should support other players with short peaks - Utley, Nomar, Oliva etc - because nothing outside of his peak suggests a HOF career. His did compile a career WAR total close to or better than many HOFers, although WAR is a really over used stat in this context, esp when defense and base running are involved. Winfield, for example had 10 seasons of oWAR over 4 but defense knocks him down a peg. (And some of your guys aren't really good comparisons - Molitor, for example, is a pretty obvious HOFer by all metrics. WAR wise, he had more 5 WAR seasons, more 4 WAR seasons and far fewer bad seasons - ie seasons of less than 1 or 2 WAR, of which Raines had many).

Edgar's 5 year peak you took was about as good as Raines by WAR (interestingly enough WAR punishes Edgar pretty good in those years, his dWAR in 95 was -1.3 despite playing 7 games in the field). But Edgar had a bunch of other great seasons outside of those 5 years. In the other 13 seasons (11, if you ignore the two pre rookie years), he had another 4 5+ WAR seasons (two of which were over 6) and another 4.8 one. Basically, he had 10 5+ WAR seasons in a 16 year career. And, again, WAR isn't a great measure for DH's. Raines had 6 in 21 seasons (and WAR might be over rating his base running). Same deal with Trammell, Better and longer peak years (6 6+ WAR years), more 4 WAR years as well (9 in 18 years compared to 6 in 21). Walker, more of the same. Walker had 10 4 WAR years in 17 seasons. Raines didn't have as many HOF seasons, although his 5 year peak was surely HOF worthy.

August 1. And, while you're at it, can you start a contest to predict Mauer's first trip to the DL?

2016 - I think next year Griffey and Piazza get in and you start seeing a big push for Moose and Schilling. I think Hoffman gets a lot of support, too. I wonder if people start looking at Jeff Kent. Jim Edmonds is another first year guy who might get Lofton'd off the ballot too quickly. 2017 - Manny and Pudge both enter ballot and we will hear a lot about PED discussion. Vlad also gets on the ballot and gets elected. This is Jeff Bagwell's best chance, if he doesn't make it this year, he's probably not going to make it. But the PED guys might make it hard for him, fair or not. We still have the Schilling/Moose logjam and this is Raines last year on the ballot. Jorge Posada also gets on the ballot and will get some strong support, as will Hoffman, I think. And you still have a handful of solid candidates - Sheffield, Kent, Edgar, McGriff, Walker, Edmonds. I think this is the most argumentative election year we'll have in some time. 2018 - 4 big newcomers - Chipper Jones, Andrus Jones, Jim Thome and Scott Rolen. Raines is off the ballot and I think Rolen gets a lot of support from the statheads. With those four and Edgar, Bagwell, Moose/Schilling, Hoffman, Pudge, Posada, etc it'll be a pretty crowded ballot. 2019 - Bagwell's last year on the ballot but it's a Yankee love fest with Mo and Pettitte coming on and Posada still on it. Other newcomers are Halliday, Todd Helton and Roy Oswalt. Guys who have been in that crappy 10-45% are going to have a real hard time breaking out in the next few years. And I wonder if there is a solid 25+% of voters who won't vote for suspected PED guys - Bagwell, Pudge.

What is Molitor's plans on Schafer? In a SSS, his CF defense graded out positively (as opposed to his LF defense). He's a former top prospect, still in his prime. Players in Atlanta were upset that he was traded and they felt that Upton should've been moved instead. A few Atlanta fan sites complained that Schafer just needed consistent playing time. I don't really care if Schafer starts in CF or Santana. But I really don't want Hicks on the ML roster out of ST. He needs to hit more in AAA.

I voted last week but it was still listed as 86, so I voted more than 3 games too high. Had it been at 76, I would have changed it. Looking at the number of comments that discussed it at the time, I don't think it got fixed that fast (or people just voted/commented right away). I did enjoy it though but I didn't look at the NL one.

In fairness, originally, the projection was accidentally written as 86 wins, not 76. Frankly, I think the Twins have a pretty decent shot to be .500 next year. Their offense was good and they have enough depth to remain good even if Vargas/Santana fall to earth. Santana and Nolasco are the big questions. If those two can pitch effectively, this team will surprise some people.

Nailed it

I know there are many but, wow, this guy threatens to sue a reporter for using his name. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/01/05/this-post-shamelessly-uses-frederick-county-md-council-member-kirby-delauters-name-without-authorization/

One of my daughter's friend's dad leaves his handgun in his bedside nightstand, without a lock. Despite his oldest girl being 8 and having a younger son as well. My wife and I won't let my daughter play at that house (but will let the girl come over).

Certainly not my top 10 but it's an interesting top 10 and might be the top 10 simply based on ceiling. I think, as a group, we probably under rate Burdi.

Best of luck to him, he was really solid down the stretch in 06.

Not even sure what you're arguing here. I said that Ryan did a good job his first go around keeping a pipeline open and that was true. And I said he's done a good job creating a pipeline this time around. Also true. The pipeline certainly took a hit after he left but the 08, 09 and 2010 Twins relied a lot on internally built options from the Ryan era (despite trading Garza and Santana and letting Silva sign elsewhere). From 08-10, the Twins pitching staff was 8th in WAR in all the majors and most of it was b/c of internal options that Ryan had brought in.

Tango had an article about HOF seasons - http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/how-many-hof-type-seasons-should-a-hof-worthy-player-have He notes that "Raines doesn’t have the peak to distance himself from the borderline HOF cases."

I don't really buy this. The Twins, under Ryan, actually had a real strong pipeline of developed pitchers, either by trade or draft. The team saw many of them leave b/c they got too expensive too keep, bad trades or no room for them. The complaint about Ryan used to be that he knew how to get pitchers but couldn't find any bats. Ideally, this time around, Ryan will be able to keep a few guys here longer. And he already has managed to get a pretty good minor league pipeline flowing.

I haven't read your article yet but I will. But, IIRC, there have been some articles out there discussing krate and bb rate in the minors before. The general rule was that high krates in the low minors is worrisome if you also have a low walk rate. Some of the biggest busts in recent prospecting have been b/c the players didn't have a feel for the strike zone, which showed in the low minors despite their offensive domination of that level. As to why people are optimistic about Sano and Buxton: 1) both are extremely highly regarded prospects by people that aren't just Twins fans and 2) both are starting the year in AA, which means they are close to being promoted. Twins have been happily promoting AA players to the majors for a while, before they get to AAA.

Nice list, nothing really crazy in there (except maybe Rosario coming up). I'd be quite happy with a 81-81 record with the continued improvement of our young players. I'll add one optimistic prediction - Trevor May leads the team in strike outs and breaks 200ip.

They played different positions. When Puckett retired, Bill James had him listed as the 8th best CFer of all time.

I think 4 guys get in - Randy, Pedro, Biggio and Smoltz. (which, frankly, would be a pretty good class).

Hell, a lot of non HOFers kept playing b/c teams felt they added value - Kaat, Buckner, Staub etc. If you think a 5 year peak is enough for the HOF then you would think that Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, Joe Mauer are HOFers already (David Wright too if you discount baserunning). His oWAR is benefited by about 10 WAR by baserunning (if I'm calculating that right, which is not certain) and 1 WAR per season during his 5 year peak. And yes, his career WAR is higher than many HOFers but it's also lower than Jim Kaat's and many other non-HOFers. My problem with Raines isn't his career numbers - he clearly reached a number that signifies HOFer to people based on a certain stat. My problem is that his peak was very short and he hung on for a long time to get to magical number - aka a compiler. We bring that up all the time when we talk about Biggio hanging around to get to 3000 hits. Same thing here, just a different stat. Raines' offense was solid but not as good as others, mostly propped up by his OBP. His wOBA, wRC+ were lower than Gwyns, Oliva, Moises Alou and Keith Hernandez and was slightly above Biggio, but Biggio was a second baseman and Raines was a corner OFer. And, again, nearly all of Raines strong positives came in that 5 year window.

I'm pretty torn on Raines but I'm not sure I'd vote for him. The reality is he had an incredible peak but a lot of meh years. From 83-87, he had an absolute incredible level of production and finished top 10 in WAR each year (although never higher than fifth). But after that, he finished top 10 in OBP once and never top 10 in WAR. That 5 year peak in great but if you start stretching his peak out to 7, 8 or 9 years, other non-HOFers had better longer peaks - Tony Oliva, Keith Hernandez, etc And part of Raines high WAR comes from baserunning which isn't the most accurate part of WAR - his bat was solid but not as potent as Oliva's, for instance. Raines was also a bad outfielder who ran bad routes and had a weak arm. Outside of those 5 seasons, it's hard to say he had a HOF career. He amassed 36 WAR in those 18 other seasons. I think in a lot of ways he's a compiler but just of a stat some people like - he played long enough to get 68 WAR but is that any better than saying he reached 3000 hits or 500 HRs, if we aren't taking the seasons into account? He was fortunate that his decline phase happened in an amazing increase in offense (and that he was constantly well rested as a part time player) which helped masked his decline. For example, after 87 his career OBP of .378 looks pretty good but it was actually 35th in baseball, behind guys like Chuck Knoblauch (who played in twice as many games) and if you look at things like wOBA for that period, he falls off the page completely (finishing way behind a lot of nondescript players like Matt Lawton, Grieve, aging Winfield etc). I think those years outside of 83-87 count. And those weren't even close to HOF years. He amassed less WAR in the 90s than Lenny Dykstra did, despite playing in twice as many games. In fact, he was 98th in WAR for that decade, despite playing in 9 of those 10 years. So I'm not sure a 5 year peak is enough to get a guy into the HOF and that is really all of Raines claim to the HOF. Nearly half his career WAR, 35% of his career hits and a third of his walks came in those 5 years.

Well, yeah, but with Buxton you see him moving in the right direction despite the wasted season. Hicks, ... man, I hope he has a great season for us.