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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    What you linked to was mlb.com's mid season 2014 update. They are revealing their top 100 on Friday and have the top 50 show on that night on mlb.tv.
  2. gunnarthor
    I think we, as fans, might be over valuing Cuba's talent. I think we all think that we're passing on Jose Abreau but, looking at Wikipiedia's list (which I doubt is complete), over 30 players from Cuba have defected and signed w/ML teams since 2010. Less than a third of them have made the majors and only a couple of them have been worth their salary at this point. Cespedes is a nice player but I'm not sure he was worth 4/36 deal he got. I do wish the Twins had some more success signing players from Cuba and Japan b/c those players are not subject to the international pool ML established. But the Twins still have a budget and maybe the Pohlad's don't give them much money to play with in that regard - we know the Pohlads have been supporters of Selig and Selig didn't appreciate the crazy spending on Cuban players. The Twins obviously have done a lot of work in the international areas (give a lot of credit to Bill Smith). Perhaps, with the new international restrictions in place the last few years, things will change. It's also worth noting that teams can be good in one place (Domincan Republic) and have nearly no impact in other areas (Panama), for instance. So maybe where these Cuban players actually defect to might impact who they sign with. In any event, my guess is that the Twins have set a certain value to Cuban players and other teams have over valued them more.
  3. gunnarthor
    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=3b Behind Bryant (no surprise) and Joey Gallo (a bit more of a surprise). "Following a 2013 season in which Sano finished fourth in the Minors in home runs while reaching Double-A at age 20, the big Dominican third baseman seemed poised to make a big league impact the following season. Instead, he had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in March 2014, missing the entire season. He was still obviously added to the 40-man roster this offseason and was ready to hit the reset button in 2015. Sano has nearly as much power as anyone in the Minor Leagues, with the potential for his 2013 output to become an annual occurrence. His strong strike zone knowledge allows him to get pitches to drive regularly, making his raw pop translate consistently in games. With his plus power comes a good amount of strikeouts, but he's shown an ability to hit for decent average. Pre-surgery, Sano's best defensive tool was his cannon of an arm, so that may take some time to come back all the way. Whether he can stay at third long-term remains to be seen, though Sano committed himself to conditioning while he was rehabbing his elbow. Regardless of his position, Sano's power bat will get to the big leagues soon enough and be a middle-of-the-order presence for a long time to come."
  4. gunnarthor
    But I think the original question was upside over positional ranking. a guy like Walker (I think) has a much higher potential ceiling than Kepler and if Cederoth could start .... Maybe that's what you were doing but I read it as a continuation of your top 10.
  5. gunnarthor
    I suspect you and I would disagree on why this is a good idea but man, wouldn't that be something? David Ortiz is out of the game b/c AJ Pierzsky (sp) leaned into a Pedro Martinez curveball? In a playoff game? Amazing. (I suppose you could modify the rule by trying to enforce the rule that batters had to try and get out of the way - Kevin Youkliss was really good at leaning in and having the ball hit his body armor). Could you imagine the fan rage that would cause? That literally might cause a riot. Incidentally, if this is a thread about rule changes, I'd love for them to prohibit batters from wearing body armor.
  6. gunnarthor
    How is it fun to see a pitcher pulled so a bench guy can bat and then we see a bunch of relievers finish the game? I absolutely hate the NL style of game and they are the only league that plays it anymore.
  7. gunnarthor
    Doogie seemed to think it involved pitchers. I wonder if they were loooking at Marlins (now Yankee) pitcher Nate Eovaldi? I didn't like that trade much for Miami and it seems like the Twins could have pretty easily had a better offer.
  8. gunnarthor
    He's 23. If he's still at A+, I think his status is gone. FSL is supposed to be a pitcher's league and he did a bunch of other things right. I think the Twins promote him to AA, where Dougie Baseball can work with him.
  9. gunnarthor
    Part of this is that his hands were tied by payroll during his first run. He's already made several roll the dice trades - Span for Meyer, Revere for Worley/May. Since he put Steil in charge of the minor league system, we've seen a bunch of multiple mid season promotions for a bunch of our prospects and he's already on record saying he thinks Buxton debuts this season. I'm not sure the "rewarding loyalty" thing is valid. Frankly, people used to complain that he was cold blooded by letting guys like Koskie, Jones, Everyday Eddie, Milton, Dougie baseball, etc go when he could have kept them "somehow." Since he's come back after the 2011 season, we've seen a pretty big roster/coaching system overhaul. Not really sure who he is rewarding loyalty over talent.
  10. gunnarthor
    Yeah, it's cyclical. Other than Seth Speaks old website, there wasn't a lot of places that discussed Twins prospects that much when the team was doing well. Not sure what prospects you're talking about needing more seasoning at 27-28. Gibson will be 27 next year but he's already been in the majors for 2 years and had a 2 WAR season last year. The Twins have promoted Sano, Buxton, Stewart, Polanco, Vargas, Santana, Hicks, Arcia, etc multiple levels in recent years (frankly, Steil seems to be more aggressive on this than his predecessor).
  11. gunnarthor
    I'm going to restart this thread, the other one got a little long and a little off topic. Brady Aiken, last year's #1 pick, might be availabe to the Twins at #6 this year. (Keeping in mind that we still have a season of HS and college baseball left to play). The Diamondbacks probably don't pick him to go #1 - Duke pitcher Micheal Matuella probably goes there. Aiken won't go #2 or #5 b/c those are the Astros picks, and that bridge was burned. So either Texas or Colorado would have nab him. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107241074/what-are-the-options-for-2014-no-1-overall-draft-pick-brady-aiken Callis' article suggests that Aiken and Nix may pitch together on ,IMG Academy, "a multisport training and education complex in Bradenton, Fla. IMG's high school team has spawned big leaguers Tyler Pastornicky and J.R. Murphy." He also says that teams will get to look at his medical records prior to the draft.
  12. gunnarthor
    Not sure. Some of those guys were/are international scouts. But a guy like Berrios wasn't a big sell. He was rising up draft boards all spring. I would imagine that the Twins probably sent a couple cross checkers to view him. I remember that a Yankees blog was really sure that the Yankees were going to pick him with their first round pick (they took Ty Hensley instead).
  13. gunnarthor
    The only rule that baseball needs is to institute the DH in the NL.
  14. gunnarthor
    This has been discussed a ton here. Deron Johnson wasn't put in charge until Ryan left - Smith had him replace Radcliff. Ryan gave Radcliff more say in the drafts when he came back. Yes, GMs get too much credit/blame, it's part of the job and, frankly, the GM is usually shorthand for FO anyways. When Ryan came back in 2011, our system was a bit off. The top guys were Hicks, Gibson (injured), Sano (far away), Arcia (signed under Ryan), Hendricks (signed under Ryan), Benson (drafted under Ryan), Gutierrez, Salcedo (signed under Ryan), Dean and Wimmers. Even if you don't want to give him credit for the drafts, he added some pretty good players in trades, waiver claims and such. The farm system went from (at best) middle of the pack to the very top, despite graduating top 100 prospects and other solid additions. Ryan also made significant changes to the minor leagues. He changed many of the coaches and put Brad Stiel in charge of minor league development.
  15. gunnarthor
    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/289698601.html Interesting article but it also gives a sense of what the FO is thinking - "Whether correct or not, there are two prevailing theories within the Twins organization: That last year’s team underachieved, and that the farm system will set up the team for another decade of winning." Ryan had told Berardino that he expects Buxton to debut this year. I do love that farm system Ryan's constructed but I'm not sure last year's team underachieved. Although Mauer and Nolasco certainly did. Productive years out of those two probably would have added a few wins to the team. But the farm system is truly elite. It's generally considered one of the top 2 systems (with the Cubs) and has kept that ranking even though it has graduated 4 top 100 guys the last couple years and still has its best prospects coming.
  16. gunnarthor
    I don't disagree with what you're saying. By picking Boyd, the Twins passed on some guys behind them that in retrospect looked better - Tony Cingrani, Daniel Norris to name two. I also can't remember if the draft pools were in place in 2011 or if that started in 2012. It seems that Norris was a first round talent who fell on signability concerns. But when you're picking at #55, you are likely not going to succeed and the history of the draft shows that. The Boyd pick, at the time, was well received. Klaw liked him a lot, IIRC.
  17. gunnarthor
    For hitters, Jason Parks who used to be at BP but was hired by the Cubs did say that Adam Walker could be a first division type player IF he got his plate discipline under control. Now, obviously, that is the biggest IF there is, but his ceiling would be pretty elite IF he could control the strike zone. You'd be looking at a plus defender in RF with Arcia pop and a avg or better base runner. Harrison's ceiling is probably a solid LFer, maybe Kepler too. Armyus Minier (I misspelled that), who is miles away, has an all star ceiling. Nico Goodrum's ceiling is probably a good short stop. For pitchers outside the top 10 (excluding Thrope who is sometimes in the top 10 and sometimes not), I'm not sure. Maybe a few of the relief pitchers turned starters have the best ceiling if they can become starters.
  18. gunnarthor
    Frankly, he was exactly what Twins fans were clamoring for the team to do - pick a hard throwing HS pitcher with upside. Everyone always looks at the ones that pan out and say, "What can't the Twins do that?" and ignore the massive number of guys who don't make it. Since 1990, there have been two good picks at #55 in the draft - Todd Helton and Brett Anderson.
  19. gunnarthor
    Sounds about right. BP loves the Twins more than most - they included Thrope in their top 101 last year. Fangraphs loved them about the least, IIRC, with 6 in their top 100 but two of those (Stewart and Rosario) having 'meh' years. I could see Stewart dropping out of his top 50. Not sure how he'll rank Gordon. (Also, I believe Marc Hulet did their top 100 last year and MacDaniel replaced him).
  20. gunnarthor
    I think Johan Santana's peak was hall worthy. Jim Kaat certainly has had a lot of discussion but I think there should be some way to look at "body of work" and put him in - 75 WAR career then another 30 years as a very good broadcaster. Brad Radke - had more 5 WAR seasons than Smoltz and just as many as Glavine (among others). Had more seasons in the top 10 in WAR than Johan. During his career, only Moose, Clemens and Pedro amassed more pWAR int the AL than Radke. Patrick Reusse - in the journalism wing. He clearly loves baseball and has cared about it longer than most.
  21. gunnarthor
    If I was the Blue Jays, I'd be pretty angry at the kid too. The van looks like something off of Hoarders. Show some professionalism, shave and sleep in a building. Not too much to ask of your top prospect.
  22. gunnarthor
    Yeah, and prospects with huge plate discipline issues take longer. Baez had horrible walk/strike out rates even in the minors. That's a bad recipe.
  23. gunnarthor
    Yesterday's BP chat guy answered this question: Matt (NJ): Hey Doug, if you had to name two or three SPs who's current status in scouting and fantasy circles underrates their mechanics (a la Kluber getting an A- grade this time last year), who would you go with? Doug Thorburn: Gausman has a B delivery, as does Danny Salazar (when he's on). I would also put Alex Meyer in that category (B grade mechanics), given that his delivery is much better than is often credited, as everyone worries about him coordinating his size.'' So it's nice to read a good thing about his mechanics. Man, I hope he breaks camp with the big club.
  24. gunnarthor
    I think Berrios and Stewart are locks for top 50 status. May could sneak in considering his strong season last year. Mayo and Callis are more likely to reward a guy in AAA on their lists than most. But I still don't think he gets in. Certainly some lists (BP, BA, Klaw, Sickels) will have more than 6 Twins and BP loves Thorpe so I expect he'll be on some (and they could have as many as 9 Twins in their top 101). Burdi is interesting. Most lists don't like relievers but he has to be considered one of the few big relief prospects so a few places might rank him.
  25. gunnarthor
    I forgot to mention one thing. Of the 10 RH pitchers, only three (Severino, Bundy and Meyer) are in the AL. The LH list came out today. A much less impressive group. Urias and Rodon are probably the only two who profile as aces. Maybe Norris, if he can stay healthy.
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