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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Mitt Romney had a couple strong tweets. I didn't vote for him but I always liked him. I thought he was a solid moderate republican who had to "go right" to win the nomination but was much more rationale. I wish the republican party was more Romney and less McConnell.
  2. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure if we have another Buxton/Sano level prospect in our system right now (Lewis could be) but i do think we have a fair number of prospects who could rise to the Kepler/Gordon level, which is just a tier below. I know that they are far away but Baddoo, Miranda and Rortvedt are really exciting young players. Rooker has real power. Thorpe, Romero, Gonsalves could all be top 100 prospects next year. We seem to have a legit SS at every level for the first time in my memory. It's a real deep system.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yeah, ignoring how we measure it, we all saw that he can play exceptional defense. He isn't this year. I'm not sure why. I do think players can have down years. A nagging injury, a bad week, lost confidence etc could all be factors that have played into this. But he certainly has the talent to be a good LFer, perhaps even a top 5 LF in the AL. But he should be at least average.
  4. gunnarthor
    I've pointed this out before but .. Over his first 15 games he hit .082/.135/.122 (4-49), with 46% k-rate and 4% walk rate Since then, he's .261/.335/.365 with 27% k-rate and 10% walk rate. Since July 1st, he's hitting .347/.407/.458 with 22% k-rate and 10% walk rate.
  5. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I really think the group of Kiriloff, Baddoo, Miranda, Rortvedt, Lewis, Enlow, and Leach are going to give us several top 100 guys. (Technically, Kiriloff and Lewis have already made some top 100 lists but ...).
  6. gunnarthor
    There was an article in hardball times or baseball analysts a while back that suggested that defensive stats had trouble when a team had three good OFers. The stats would invariably suggest that one outfielder was worse than he was. They didn't know all the reasons but some had to do with a rangy OFer (in this case Buxton) making catches in the other OFers zone. Additionally, shifting (at the time not as common) might impact how people were weighed. I think that has to be at least some of the problems in Eddie's dWAR calculations. He's having a bad year but there is no way he's as bad as Delmon Young or Hammer were but, according to dWAR, he's going to come out somewhere close to -2.0 this year.
  7. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure WAR is the best, at all. And it's not like it's only WAR v. eye test. We can look at a lot of stats - OPS+, wOBA, WPA - to try and figure out a player's contribution. Not sure why we've decided that WAR is the end all, be all. A decade ago, it was win shares. For awhile it was OPS+/ERA+. And teams do have internal WAR systems. A few years ago, Posnanski reported that the A's system had Cabrera ahead of Trout when fWAR and bWAR had Trout far ahead. Cabrera won the MVP. In any event, jaykay's post indicated that Rosario's offensive contributions were nearly completely negated by his defense/baserunning. That's different from what you and Mike are suggesting. One suggests a value (nearly equal to his offense) the other suggests that it's bad but doesn't set a determined value.
  8. gunnarthor
    Gallup tracks Trump's daily approval/disapproval numbers. They are bad - http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx Right now it's 34/61.
  9. gunnarthor
    That's only true if you believe that WAR calculations on defense and base running are both measured accurately and valued accurately. "Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t. "But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and ... they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but ... we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are." -- Bill James
  10. gunnarthor
    Yep
  11. gunnarthor
    Still silent on white supremacists but one of his tweets was to attack Ken Frasier, a black CEO who left Trump's manufacturing council, because of Trump's non-response to Charlottesville.
  12. gunnarthor
    The books and show are pretty different b/c the show had to cut a lot of things, especially after the first book (the first season and the first book were pretty similar). I tend to think they are both good but understand why someone would only want to deal with one. I've found that a lot of GRRM fans seem to be a bit crazy in their devotion to the guy. He's a good writer but he has real flaws and his books aren't perfect. I think he's a better story teller than writer, if that makes sense. The show had (generally) done a good job of using it's advantages - i.e. cast, hour long story, beautiful scenery/people - very well. But it has had some pretty ham handed foreshadowing and some of the complaints about how it treats women are valid.
  13. gunnarthor
    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/247529032/pipeline-inbox-mlbs-top-10-farm-systems/?topicid=151437456 Notes that Kiriloff, Javier and some of the injured pitchers could move the system up quickly.
  14. gunnarthor
    Didn't he lose a ton of money in the Madoff scandal?
  15. gunnarthor
    This should probably become it's own thread but Mauer is still probably our best option at first base. Yes, his power is bad but that slash line is probably better than anything Vargas (the only obvious replacement on the 40 man roster) could do. So we have these choices: 1) Play Mauer as we have been with occasional off days and shuffling line ups as we have been. 2) Play Vargas more (I think this is a bad idea) 3) Add Park to the 40 man roster and see if he can play 1B. (I like this idea more than #2). 4) Make a trade. Obviously, it depends on price but I'm not sure I want the Twins trading off prospects at this point. 5) Move Sano to first base and insert Escobar at third. I don't know if they have other realistic ideas. Kepler played a lot of first in the minors and bring up Granite for a corner spot? See if Grossman can play first and bring up Vargas/Park to DH? Ugh.
  16. gunnarthor
    Context, dude, context.
  17. gunnarthor
    Look, Mauer isn't my favorite guy either but he gets on base. He's a heck of a better alternative than Vargas.
  18. gunnarthor
    Good luck to him.
  19. gunnarthor
    I'm on book two of Justin Cronin's Passage trilogy. Pretty solid.
  20. gunnarthor
    I like the idea of Dougie Baseball but Picker, Glynn, Mauer would all be ok with me. But I don't know enough about other options. Someone in the Rangers system could be fine. Mostly, I'm gonna give Levine the benefit of the doubt on his hire since it's his first one and he's seen what the team needs. If he thinks Glynn is the guy, great. If he thinks he needs the Rangers AAA manager, fine.
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, actually I agree. Not sure who I'll root for in the playoffs but it might be the Dodgers
  22. gunnarthor
    What do people think of Kendrick? IIRC, he was another one of the young HS bats (along with Blankenhorn and Cabbage) the Twins took in the top 10. He had real power but was 1b/dh only. He has a lot of walks although his avg is pretty low (still less than 100 PA this year).
  23. gunnarthor
    Seems more or less fair. As the article states, players generally can't insult umps. I'm not sure West's comments were that bad but ...
  24. gunnarthor
    I wonder how they're gonna **** up the playoffs this year.
  25. gunnarthor
    The manager won't be around for much longer
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