I would almost never pay any attention to "run expectancy." No two situations are equal, and using a composite average to evaluate specific situations doesn't appeal to me. In this specific situation, I was glad to get the game tied over 1st and 2nd, 1 out, no runs in, and the 2nd half of the lineup due up against a pitcher throwing well. I dont think there was much chance of the two runners advancing to 2nd and 3rd, either. The most likely outcome is Cave keeps running and is tagged out on a slide at home. Even if he pulls up, the catcher can just run him back to third, make one throw, and no other runner will risk advancing. BTW, its not by accident or mistake that Cave WAS running on that play. You teach runners in that situation to go on a ground ball, forcing the defense to make a decision. Worst case scenario is Cave retreats to 3rd, and they turn a DP anyway.