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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    Huh? https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/ Unless their own description of fWAR is out of date, Fangraphs still uses UZR for all positions except catcher, where they basically throw up their hands and give up. I do agree UZR is worthless though.
  2. USAFChief
    Comparing Margot and Arozarena based on batting average. Seriously?? Citing Puk's season numbers without knowing Miami tried to make him a starter this year. Remove those four starts, and get back to us. Puk will be the best or second best LH reliever moved this year. He was the absolute perfect fit.
  3. USAFChief
    One would think this analytically inclined staff wouldn't go "by reputation." Margot is not a better outfielder than any of the LH hitters he replaces.
  4. USAFChief
    With tonight's results, the Twins are tied with the Yankees in the loss column.
  5. USAFChief
    A nice, relatively stress free, come-from-ahead win is just what the doctor ordered. Lopez looks better recently. That's big.
  6. USAFChief
    Snell. Get it done.
  7. USAFChief
    No need to throw a strike there
  8. USAFChief
    Fair enough. But we'll miss Skubal after we trade for him tomorrow morning. ... ...
  9. USAFChief
    I'll be honest, I don't mind the Tigers missing their best player.
  10. USAFChief
    I wonder if, with a right hander on the mound tonight for Day-twah, and Miranda probably not in the lineup anyway, they're not just waiting till tomorrow and Skubal.
  11. USAFChief
    Pretty insightful question, IYAM.
  12. USAFChief
    Hit em well.
  13. USAFChief
    Did the ghost runner NOT score more often following a bunt attemt?
  14. USAFChief
    I don't think the Pohlads should lose money. But I don't think it's even worth considering.
  15. USAFChief
    Your words: "bunting is the best strategy, since the ghost runner scores more often when the leadoff hitter attempts to bunt" Yes. /thread.
  16. USAFChief
    Castro 2B Buxton CF Larnach LF Lewis 3B Kepler RF Santana 1B Wallner DH Lee SS Vazquez C Is Wallner dinged up? I wonder why (twice now) he's in LF instead of Wallner.
  17. USAFChief
    "I'm not making a player comparison" "Equivalent pay from the Twins system is Keaschall and another piece. Bowen maybe. " Youre not?
  18. USAFChief
    No. And i answered your question. Now answer mine: Do you believe the Twins lost money last year? Or would this year, with a similar payroll?
  19. USAFChief
    The logical falicy would be if they ONLY measured successful bunts. Not every bunt attempt would be successful, which needs to be accounted for. Failed bunt attempts are a possibility. Just like not bunting will sometimes be successful. That needs to be accounted for too. And will fail, sometimes. But bunting, or attempting to bunt and failing, led to more wins than not bunting, even accounting for the times one if the next hitters gets a hit and drives in the winning win. Which is also a possibility. I think you have the logical falicy backwards.
  20. USAFChief
    Wait...you brought the names up.
  21. USAFChief
    I don't believe the Pohlads have ever lost money in any year owning the Twins, with the probable exception of 2020. I would assume in 2020 they took a bath, like many entertainment and public service businesses. I have no doubt the Twins made money last year with a payroll north of $150M, and would do so again this year. Team values increase pretty much every year, and have for decades. Billionaires don't pay for businesses that lose money. That's not how they got to be billionaires. If the Twins were losing money, the franchise value wouldn't have increased from the $44M Carl paid to whatever they could sell the franchise for today. $1.5B? Are you claiming a person smart enough to have the cash necessary to buy the Twins at $1.5B would do so expecting to lose money?
  22. USAFChief
    I specifically said situations where "one run wins." I also see no logical fallacies in the article. Bunting in such situations led to more wins than not bunting. There is no added value to extra runs...which isn't the case if you're the road team. Swing away. As I said, in most cases I don't like sac bunting. In the specific case of one run wins, bunting the runner from 2nd to 3rd is pretty clearly better than letting the 1st hitter swing away. Now, it may be that MLB has let skill at bunting atrophy so badly that some players literally can't do it. I don't know. Sad, if that's the case.
  23. USAFChief
    Nonconcur. And total run expectancy is irrelevant. The first run is all that matters.
  24. USAFChief
    If the shoe fits...
  25. USAFChief
    Not to mention, the Twins payroll constraints are entirely self imposed. A 1 year deal for $30m is well within what they should be spending anyway. And getting a potential top starter on a one year deal is damn near perfect but damn near impossible.
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