IndianaTwin

At this point, if I'm in Odo's shoes, I hold off on signing a contract and wait for the spring training injuries to happen. His market could open up pretty quickly.

Interesting approach to scheduling. Almost exclusively in six-game series, and every Monday off for travel. Being located in northern Indiana, I like that there's two trips to Indianapolis, one to Toledo.

And IT clicks “like” before heading to the garage one more time to get the bike back on the rollers... But hey, 31 degrees by Saturday, so hopefully roads will be clear enough to give it a try outside!

My top three picks for spending a couple million are Jeffress, Jeffress, and Jeffress, with Clippard a close fourth.

I look at it this way. I don’t want to start the season with a rookie in the rotation. I’d prefer not starting the season with a guy with just 15 career starts in the rotation. With Shoemaker, they can start spring training with the hope of five veterans (Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker) in the rotation and settle for Dobnak if (when) one of them gets hurt. Without Shoemaker, you hope for four veteran starters and Dobnak and settle for Thorpe or Smeltzer if (when) one gets hurt. To me, that’s a significant upgrade. (I also don’t consider Dobnak for the bullpen. He’ll be needed to start a game for the Twins before the end of April — someone will be hurt by then.)

Hopefully Shoemaker can toe the rubber and cobble together some good performances.

I honestly don't think Buxton will ever steal 30 bases. It's not that he couldn't -- I just think there are several things against him. There's both the tendency for Rocco not to use stolen bases a lot and and the fear of injury, but there's another factor as well. Because of the power that he's developed, outfielders have to play him deep. Because they are playing him deep, his bloop singles become doubles and he's already on second. It's for the same reason that I don't think he'll ever lead the league in triples. Outfielders are playing him deep, so there's less chance of splitting the gap or having the outfielder needing to run a long way to field the ball.

But he will still look in the cloves of baby blue.

The move sure reeks for Waddell, since he got the DFA.

The notion of one team “winning” a trade and the other “losing” a trade is a false dichotomy. In baseball trades, as in life, the goal in negotiation ought to be for both sides to “win.” In this case, I think the Twins “won” in that they fulfilled a need in having a top-notch starter in place. The Dodgers didn’t need that particular piece, but wanted more prospects for the future. So far, it appears that he is developing into what they were looking for, so they may have “won” as well.

I've been for Clippard all along for veteran stability. It's hard to see Thorpe winning a starting job over Dobnak, so with no options, he may indeed be the elephant in the room, as Doc says, and headed to the pen. But between the first seven you listed, Clippard and Thorpe, I'd take the chance that at least one pitcher out of nine will open the year on the IL. I'd like to see another starter brought in on a major league contract and perhaps another on a minor league deal. Whether or not that happens, Dobnak and Smeltzer need to stay lengthened out as starters, so if they don't make the rotation, they'll be at St. Paul.

With $40MM on the line for the second year, it's hard to imagine Bauer opting out after one year. But I agree that Gonsolin and May would be incredibly expensive. BaseballTradeSimulator.com suggests that it would take either Kirilloff or Lewis plus someone like Sabato or Celestino to get May. To get Gonsolin would require only Duran or Balazovic plus Sabato or Celestino. But Price could be interesting, depending on how much cash LA adds. To the OP, from what I understand, Boston is already is covering $32M of his remaining salary, leaving only $32M for the Dodgers or his new team. The same simulator says that Enlow should get Price and $15M of the remaining salary. I think I'd do Enlow for two years of Price at $8.5M per year. The issue is that I'm not sure that's enough salary relief to be worth it for the Dodgers.

Ash, we've been in agreement on the Cruz signing. But it's still a topsy-turvy world, and maybe the (logic) of two people don't amount to a hill of beans. But this is our hill. And these are our beans! It's small sample size with just 60 games, but here's what I found in a look-thru of the league's OPS at DH. (In case you didn't catch it, you can hover over a team and see the OPS and the number of PAs by each person who played the position.) Minn (Cruz, .997), KC (Soler, .809), Cle (Reyes, .800), Det (Miggy, .743), Bos (J.D. Martinez, .709), LAA (Ohtani .657), and Chicago (Encarnacion, .631) all had one person who got at least half the team's PAs. Without knowing how injuries played out for teams, it appears that those were the teams that used the "primary DH" approach. It's just that Cruz was so much better than them. Three of the others were above the league average and three were worse. Whether by design or the result of injuries, the other eight teams were using the "rotate guys through the spot" approach. The issue is that to do that, you have to have enough good hitters to make it work. No team did, apparently. The most regular DH for NYY (Stanton), Balt (Nunez) and Tor (Vlad) all were at least .867, but none had more than 94 PAs, so that left about 150-160 PAs to be spread out over other guys. Each of those teams scattered those PAs over at least nine guys. When you do that, you're almost certainly going to have some guys that were lousy, and they each did. (FWIW, the Twins had seven guys besides Cruz who got DH PAs, but they only totaled 38 PAs. Three had just one and two more had four apiece.) The five remaining teams not only spread out their PAs out, they did it among lousy hitters. The OPS of the most common DH for those teams was .717, .704, .654, .485 and .455. You noted that on average the Twins more than a .200 advantage at that spot. Also worth is noting is that even if Cruz drops .100, the Twins would still have had the best DHs in the league by .033 over the second-best team and at least .081 over every other team. So to your original point, if you can spend $13M and have a reasonable likelihood of creating that kind of significant advantage at any spot in the batting order, do it.

Can't wait until we sign Palbo Sincheeze.

Who knows how these things work, but Susan Slusser tweeted mid-afternoon that the Giants could use a left-handed hitting outfielder with options, and a few hours later the Twins have picked up what seems like an asset. To me, that sounds like Anderson wasn’t even high on their radar, but they had already done enough due diligence to call SF and say, “How about Wade for Anderson?” This seems like another instance of an opportunistic front office sneaking in to make their team incrementally better. I think making lots of moves that each make the team incrementally better is the M.O. of Falvey and Levine, and I like it.

Guy struggles as a starter for the Giants. Then starts to look good as a reliever. Then gets traded to the Twins. So help me, but if he stands on the mound and does the bpbpbpbpttt thing before he pitches, I think we got us a keeper.

Nope. In another post earlier this offseason, I suggested the FO asking for a Word version of Maeda's contract so they could do a search-and-replace, swapping Maeda's name for Hill and having the same arrangement for him. If he does enough to cost us $10M, cool problem to have!

Indeed. Stats on depression and other mental illnesses are notoriously difficult to get. One source names 18 percent of adults being affected each year, but only 37 percent of those getting treatment. It's cliche, but I'm grateful he's willing to share. I'm one of the 37 percent of the 18, and there are certainly many more of us present on TD. But his story is likely to make much more of an impact on people than any of ours will. I'm even more of a fan of him and this signing than I was before.

I know there's not supposed to be any math on TwinsDaily, but here goes: Aside from the catcher, 8 other starters are needed in 162 games, less the 9 interleague games in which no DH is used. That equals 1287 starts needed. Say the 5th outfielder and 6th infielder get about 40 starts each. That leaves 1207 for the remaining nine guys. Right now that's Sano, Polanco, Simmons, Arraez, Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton, Cruz, and someone else (perhaps Kirilloff). With the roster flexibility they have, they can distribute them easily and have an average of 134 starts per player. But they won't. Cruz and Donaldson will get a few less because of age and to protect from injury. Spread those extra starts around and it's about 140 for the rest. And then assume one or more will spend some time on the IL, freeing up more starts. Bottom line is that signing Cruz won't keep Arraez from playing 140 games. Assuming he's healthy and hitting, he'll get between 130-150 starts. With Rocco's rest patterns, that's what most of those guys can expect.

Wonderful article on Simmons opening up about dealing with depression: https://www.ocregister.com/2021/02/02/andrelton-simmons-opens-up-about-depression-and-thoughts-of-suicide/?fbclid=IwAR0aRh1Kke4nVsVKxO43cnuMFl-gIGBm4x_S5CP785JK1hxs6OvqcSzUfjk

This is great. I could use a Vari-Pitch propeller.

To Cody or others -- have there been any actual statements from the front office that lead us to the $125M that people keep quoting? Or is just a guess that people have speculated on, based on the notion that teams will spend less this year? I've asked this on a thread or two, but haven't had anyone respond.

Seeing Didi’s two-year deal following Semien’s larger one-year deal makes this contract look even better.

I could have approached it that way, but that would have been too short of a post. Brevity is not one of my gifts. But you’re right. According to https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2020.shtml#all_team_output, ChiSox first basemen were the only position where a team had a greater competitive advantage over the rest of the league than the Twins had at DH. Having a significant advantage in one spot covers minor deficits in other areas, and when you get those kinds of advantages, you want to retain them.

Nelson Cruz needs to be a Twin. Okay, now that you know where I’m coming from, let me explain how I got there. I understand the argument about using the DH spot to keep guys fresh, etc. But let’s look at how that breaks down in reality. As of now, if the Twins were starting the season with 13 position players, it would seem to be Garver and Jeffers as the catchers; Sano, Polanco, Simmons, and Donaldson as infield starters; and Buxton and Kepler as starters in the outfield. That leaves a primary left fielder to fill defensively. Because I’ll treat Arraez as a utility player, I’m going to put Kirilloff in left, leaving three position players. I’ll go with Cave as the fourth outfielder, along with Rooker for his bat. Blankenhorn or Astudillo would probably be the options for the final spot, but with rookies in Jeffers, Kirilloff and Rooker, I don’t think they’ll want to start the season with that much inexperience, so I think they’ll sign a cheap veteran who can back up first and third. For purposes of this exercise, I’ll use Marwin Gonzalez as our placeholder. So let’s look at an ideal situation, including a sharing of the DH spot. C: We’ll split the time with 81 games each for Garver and Jeffers, giving them each another 5 games at DH.1B: Let’s plug in Sano for 130 games on defense, with another 20 at DH, and with Gonzalez starting the remaining 32 at 1B.2B: Polanco gets 140 starts and Arraez 22.SS: Simmons starts 150 because of his outstanding defense, with Arraez getting the remaining 12. They could move Polanco there for the extra 12 and give Arraez an additional 12 at 2B, but I think they’ll want to leave Polanco in one spot. In practical terms, I’m assuming the three of them get all the starts at 2B and SS.3B: They’ve named that they want to DH Donaldson some more to protect his legs, so I slotted him for 120 games at 3B and another 30 at DH. For the remaining games at 3B, I put in Arraez for 27 to use his bat, with 15 going to Gonzalez to keep him involved.RF: Kepler for 150 and Cave for 12.CF: Buxton for 140 and Cave for 22.LF: Kirilloff with 140 starts and Cave the remaining 22. For this exercise, I didn’t use Arraez out here, but I will in the next round.DH: If you’ve followed along, we’ve got 5 for Jeffers, 5 for Garver, 20 for Sano, and 30 for Donaldson. It would be possible to use some of the remainder for Arraez and Polanco in particular, but for simplicity, I gave them to Rooker. He’s not going to be in the majors if he isn’t playing with some regularity. (I’m also assuming only 153 DH starts because of interleague play.)So, that gives the following number of starts: Simmons (150), Sano (150), Donaldson (150), Kepler (150), Polanco (140), Kirilloff (140), Buxton (140), Rooker (93), Garver (86), Jeffers (86), Arraez (61), Cave (56), Gonzalez (47). Probably the most egregious problem is only getting 61 for Arraez, but he could easily be apportioned some from Polanco, Kirilloff, and Donaldson. Get real. That breakdown doesn’t make sense on two levels. First, it doesn’t take into account any injuries, and second, it doesn’t take into account Rocco’s roster patterns. To the first, the only place to pick up starts in case of injury with this roster is with Arraez and Rooker, if the positions line up. Starting 56 and 47 games is already plenty Cave and Gonzalez, so we don’t want to go there. The other option is more rookies, but between Jeffers, Kirilloff and Rooker, rookies are already getting 22 percent of the starts, with 14 percent to very inexperienced guys in Garver, Arraez, and Cave. Contenders don’t plan for more than a third of their starts from that much youth, knowing that injuries would push that number even higher. Second, when you look at the actual players and Rocco’s patterns, do we really expect four guys to play 150 games each and another three 140 each? Ain’t happening. In 2019, we think of the Twins as having a lot of injuries, but I think the math showed it was a pretty average number for MLB. And on that team, Polanco was the only player who had more than 132 starts. Rocco gives guys lots of days off. Even last year, when the season was only two months long, Rosario was the only player who started more than 90 percent of games (more than 54 of 60). He started 55. Polanco (53), Sano (53) and Cruz (52) were close. Starting 90 percent of games in a regular is 145 or 146, so it’s best to think of something like 140 as being full time. In addition, that list doesn’t take into account the specifics of the people involved. So with that in mind, let’s look at the list again, including some other observations. C: We’ll still split the time at 81 games each for Garver and Jeffers. But in the past two years, Rocco has only DHed a catcher four times, and that appears to have always been when he had three catchers on the roster, which this roster does not have. So I’m going to delete the DH games for Garver and Jeffers.1B: Before 2020, Sano has never played more than three-fourths of the team’s games. He played 53 of 60 in 2020, which extrapolates to 143. It would be great to assume 150 games, but more realistically, I’m going to shoot for 140. In taking away 10 games, I took 5 from 1B and 5 from DH, leaving him with 125 and 15. I gave the extra 5 games to Gonzalez, giving Marwin 37 starts at 1B.2B: Polanco did play more than 150 in 2019 and played 53 of 60 in 2020. Playing 2B should also be easier than SS, so I left him at 150 total games. However, some of his games in 2019 were as the DH, so I changed him to 140 at 2B and 10 at DH. That gives Arraez an extra 10 starts at 2B.SS: Similarly, Simmons has played more than 140 games in five of his seven full seasons, but didn’t in 2019 and only played 30 in 2020. Giving him 140 starts rather than 150 makes sense, with Arraez getting the extra 10. Again, Polanco could move here, but the bottom line is Simmons, Polanco, and Arraez getting all the starts at SS and 2B.RF: Kepler has largely started about three games out of four in his career. Rather than 150 starts, I dropped that to 130, with Cave getting the remaining 32.CF: Wouldn’t 140 games from Buxton be awesome? Wouldn’t 130? I’m being optimistic in shooting for 120, with the remaining 42 for Cave.LF: I don’t see Rocco starting a rookie with no at bats in AAA in 140 games, so I dropped it to 130 games for Kirilloff. My previous scenario had LF starts for Cave, but he’s already got 74 starts in CF and RF, which is more than I really want for him, so I gave the remaining starts to Arraez. Alternatively, some could go to Rooker.DH: Again if you’ve been following along, you’ll see that I essentially gave Jeffers and Garver’s 10 starts to Polanco, but I’ve taken away a total of 15 from Sano and Donaldson. In this exercise, I’ve given those to Arraez, leaving us with Rooker (93), Donaldson (20), Arraez (15), Sano (15) and Polanco (10). If you’d prefer, Rooker could take the LF starts, swapping with Arraez. There’s a strategy loss there, however, given that you’re more likely to move Arraez to another position than Rooker, so there’s greater likelihood of needing to sacrifice the DH in case of injury or miss out on a strategic opportunity.Now, our starts look like this: Polanco (150), Sano (140), Simmons (140), Arraez (133), Kepler (130), Kirilloff (130), Donaldson (120), Rooker (93), Garver (81), Jeffers (81), Cave (74), Gonzalez (57). That looks a lot more realistic, but it creates several problems in my mind: We’re now at over 40 percent of starts going to 1st, 2nd, and 3rd year players, including the more than 20 percent that go to rookies, two of whom have no AAA experience. There’s still no margin for injury, meaning we would have to bring up still more inexperience. We’re up to Cave starting nearly half of the games and Marwin starting more than a third of them. Simmons is already an average hitter at best. If Jeffers regresses or Garver doesn’t bounce back, we’ve got another issue.In summary, this roster would have most days when the bottom of the order is rookie-inexperienced catcher-rookie-Marwin/Cave-Simmons. Having only four out of five from among Polanco, Buxton, Sano, Donaldson and Kepler can’t carry that much dead weight. The best way to address these issues is with another experienced, effective bat. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the free agent bats left are Yadier Molina (not a hitter and not a positional need), Kolton Wong (not a hitter and not a positional need), Jackie Bradley Jr. (not a hitter, though he’d be an interesting positional addition to provide outfield insurance) and three others. Among the remaining three, Marcel Ozuna would be a thumper, but our perception is that neither the years nor the money makes sense for the Twins. Justin Turner would be a good bat, and would change the equation dramatically from signing Marwin. I’m not aware that the Twins have been linked to him, however, but it would be an interesting addition as insurance for Donaldson and as a DH. It doesn’t seem likely. So, in other words: Welcome back, Nelson.