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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
  2. tobi0040
    If you look at his nine year career, he has had an ERA over 5.00 in three years. Two additional years he has had an ERA that in the mid 4's. He has a good shot at hurting his stock after another year. I would back up the truck and take as much cash as I could.
  3. tobi0040
    That is a good point. It would seem a PR effort is underway. I agree with the sentiment that this signing would mean Correa pitches for someone else when the season starts. In which case, I think signing Santana on a reasonable, suppressed deal makes sense. You also have to wonder what kind of advice his agent is giving him. Taking a one year deal could be very risky for a guy with these up and down numbers: 2005 - 2013: 4.65, 4.28, 5.76, 3.49, 5.03, 3.92, 3.38, 5.16, 3.24
  4. tobi0040
  5. tobi0040
    I agree on Pinto for sure. Give this kid 2 pitchers to catch and a spot in the lineup the other two days. He is going to learn by playing up here and interacting with Suzuki. I am on the fence in Gibson, but he is 27 years old. Hicks probably could use a little confidence down in AAA.
  6. tobi0040
    I am not a believer in Worley either. He has no velocity, life, or deception. I think Deduno and Diamond are miles ahead of him. I would make Deduno the 5th starter until I see something that makes me feel otherwise.
  7. tobi0040
    When I first heard that Mauer was moved to 1st, I was thrilled. Then I started to wonder, why first base? We have Arcia and Willingham in the corners. Mauer seems to be a better athlete and certainly has a better arm than both. Sano is at 3B and has been described as a project there. I can't imagine him being a better athlete than Mauer, even at 30. I hear Sano has a good arm, but I am giving Mauer the nod there as well. I can see Mauer playing 1B when he is 35, but he is 30 years old. The only thing that makes sense to me is 1B being a temporary position. We want Arcia and Sano to stick where we have them today and we want Willingham to audition in LF so we can potentially trade him to the NL. It seems like the best place, both offensively and defensively for Mauer would be one of those three places. Is it just a matter of time before he is moved again?
  8. tobi0040
    I agree 100% on Pelfrey but think Hughes was a savvy gamble. His numbers outside of the new Yankee stadium suggests he is a #3 starter. I calculated it awhile back and want to say his ERA away from the new Yankee stadium is about 4.15, over about 450-500 IP. This is a perfect ballpark for him (fly ball pitcher that is tough on righties), he has good stuff and upside, is young, and we are paying him #5 money.
  9. tobi0040
    I put us at about 6-7 wins due to the rotation. I think you get regression out of Kevin C. and Deduno did pitch 108 innings at 3.83 last year. I don't know that he matches that. Regression from those two could wipe out an improved Pelfrey. I don't think Pelfrey puts up a 5.19 ERA again, but he is a career 4.48 guy that had two good years and several mediocre years. Our starters had a 5.25 ERA I believe. If you give Nolasco, Hughes, and Meyer a 4.25 ERA and they pitch 480 IP, that is 53 fewer runs against. That would drop us from 29th to 23rd in MLB based on last years totals. To your point, we could see a huge improvement out of three of the rotation spots and still be 23rd. We were very, very, very bad last year.
  10. tobi0040
    With hindsight, it is the Pelfrey deal that is the biggest head scratcher. To see Saunders get a minor league deal and Pelfrey get 2/12, that could be worth 2/16 seems very high. I was not a huge fan of the Pelfrey deal at the time.
  11. tobi0040
    I think signing a guy like Saunders would mean Corriea does not break camp with the Twins. I think he is a perfect sell high guy and Saunders is a sell low guy. Their production next year is probably similar, Saunders will sign for less and we might be able to get a decent prospect. Probably not a top 100 prospect but maybe a young upside guy. I just read that Saunders signed a minor league deal with the Rangers. His career ERA is 4.30, lower than Corriea. I would have been OK with signing him and trading Kevin but no dice.
  12. tobi0040
    I actually agree. Just like the NBA as well where the star pitchers and hitters get better calls and rookies get hosed. Like the NBA, whining and acting like a child does seem to pay off as well.
  13. tobi0040
    Not to be debby downer, but two of the three guys I was looking forward to are not playing (Rosario and Sano)
  14. tobi0040
    hodge podge? they have been top 5. in five of six years. al-nl maybe a bit, but we are talking about a very wide gap. I do find it interesting. mccann missed 60 games last year and their era was the best. He missed a total of 50 in 2011 and 2012. Those were the best three ERA's they had. He played 130-140 games from 2008 to 2010.
  15. tobi0040
    Yes I was serious. Their staff was flat out much better than ours over that time period. It is not even close. 2013 Braves 3.18 ERA 1st in MLB 2012 Braves 3.42 ERA 5th in MLB 2011 Braves 3.42 ERA 4th in MLB 2010 Braves 3.56 ERA 5th in MLB 2009 Braves 3.57 ERA 3rd in MLB 2008 Braves 4.46 ERA 21st in MLB 2013 Twins 4.55 ERA 29th in MLB 2012 Twins 4.77 ERA 28th in MLB 2011 Twins 4.58 ERA 29th in MLB 2010 Twins 3.95 ERA 11th in MLB 2009 Twins 4.50 ERA 23rd in MLB 2008 Twins 4.16 ERA 11th in MLB
  16. tobi0040
    Hopefully, Guzie could be the poster boy for how speed doesn't always mean you can steal bases. He was thrown out 36% of the time and one of the fastest players around.
  17. tobi0040
    I think he is saying if he walks more he will get better pitches, which will help us BA as he will get more hits.
  18. tobi0040
    Seems like Gardy really likes the kid.
  19. tobi0040
    I guess we will see this year, Mccann is with the Yankees and Doumit may actually catch a bit for the Braves. I think Teheran, Medlan, Minor, and Hudson are just better pitchers than Worley, Blackburn, Pelfrey, Devries, Walters, and team. Since 2010 the Twins have rotated Mauer, Butera, Doumit, Pinto, and Fryer with similar results. Do you really think Doumit catching for the Braves and McCann for the Twins would have swung 42 runs a year? Doesn't that seem extreme?
  20. tobi0040
    Do you believe McCann was worth 21 fewer runs a season from 2008-2013 as a result of him framing pitches? My belief is that this type of analysis makes some good arguments and is valuable at identifying the better catchers. I just don't think the difference between McCann and Doumit is 42 runs a year. Let's not forget the Braves have had a slightly better pitching staff than the Twins and Pirates during this stretch.
  21. tobi0040
    Right, if a pitcher has a slider that looks the same as fastball it is going to be a very good pitch no matter what. Chris Sale and Randy Johnson come to mind here. Most don't have that kind of slider.
  22. tobi0040
    I think the quants have created a monster here. I just don't buy framing plays anywhere near the role these studies suggest.
  23. tobi0040
    I agree. When it looked like Gardy may lose his job, it is these bizarre decisions that had me pulling for him being fired. The third catcher, needing a "hard throwing righty" out of the pen over someone with better numbers, etc. These tendencies can be dissuaded with an excel spreadsheet and about five minutes by factoring the likelihood of using a 3rd catcher against the missed bench spot. This decision made no sense on days Mauer was the DH last year and they make less sense now with him at 1B. Gardy seems too stubborn to me and needs to be open to alternative ways of thinking.
  24. tobi0040
    Isn't the knock on this guy control issues? I think are sitting at #5 in very deep draft. to the extent you have multiple pitchers with 95+ fastball and another plus pitch, I would take the one without any control questions.
  25. tobi0040
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