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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    While I am dissapointed with the lack of upgrades offensively, I don't see how this team could be worse than last year. Our starters had an ERA of 5.25 last year. Here are the career marks of our top four guys: Nolasco 4.37 Pelfrey 4.48 Hughes 4.54 Correia 4.49 I can see the winner of Gibson/Meyer averaging a 4.50 ERA. If we get 180 innings on average out of these five at about a 4.50, we will give up 75 fewer runs. Offensively, I think you have a few cases for regression. Dozier over last year is one. Pinto/Suzuki over Morneau is another. Then you have potential improvements, Hicks over last year. Josh over last year. Plouffe over last year. and Mauer staying healthy at 1B over last year. All told, I think our offense is slightly better than last year. Lastly, if anything our division got a little worse. What is likely to happen? I think this team wins 5-7 more games than last year. I think we have much more upside opportunity than we do to the downside. I think Hughes has a shot to blow away his career 4.54 ERA. I think Hicks could trump his .597 OPS by 100-150 basis points. And I think Meyer could surprise people.
  2. tobi0040
    Very glad that Pinto made the team. Here are the battles as I see them: Bartlett versus Florimon. If Bartlett has a good last week I could see Pedro going down. I am guessing he still has options. Otherwise it makes no sense to me why Barlett is still here. I don't know if a 34 year old SS that has been out of baseball for 1.5 years is going to see reps in CF. Pressley versus Kubel OR Collabello versus Parmelee Diamond versus Duensing versus Thielbar. I could see either Diamond or Duensing being traded this week. The most likely scenario I see is CC and Pedro/Bartlett is sent down. What worries me here is if Pinto gets 50% of the catcher reps, here is your bench half the time: Suzuki, Pressley, Escobar, Parmalee/Kubel. That asumes everyone is healthy and not day to day. On days where Josh is day to day with back soreness or whatever, you have Suzuki, Escobar, and Pressley. Yikes.
  3. tobi0040
    Interesting. A 27 year old, .842 career OPS against lefties, under team control another three years, and can play 1B, 3B, LF, and RF is worth keeping around.
  4. tobi0040
    Kind of a chicken and egg thing here. When he was having a good year, he gets reps at #2 or #4. He should not be sniffing the top of the lineup
  5. tobi0040
    Bat handlers and speedy guys #2. That is the way he likes it, even if it makes no sense at all. Remember when Casilla batted #2 for 75% of the year when he was hitting .220 with about a .260 OBP? How someone in the organization doesn't pull Gardy aside and run him through scenarios. Okay, your #3 hitter gets a hit 33% of the time and he will have a runner on 6-7% more often with batters x, y, z batting second. How often does the moving over, hit and run, etc, come into play? You sure that is the best lineup? Not that they should have to pull him aside and teach him that....
  6. tobi0040
    I agree that is about his ceiling, maybe a slightly higher BA. I think he will always walk about 8% of the time, which gives him a huge edge to stick in this league. A .270/.350/.720-.750 line with 50+ extra base hits means he can stick in LF or RF for the Twins, in my opinion. His offense would be about league average or slightly below for that position and he would probably be top 5 for arm and range for a corner OF spot. Not bad for a guy under control for a long time and who won't ever cost $100M
  7. tobi0040
    I think the missing piece here is how bad the bottom 15 3B are in this league. Sure some prospects are knocking down the door, but Plouffe's .716 OPS last year was 16th in MLB, and that did not include the 39 game stretch from 2012. Would we get a top prospect for him? No, but we would get more than a ham sandwich. But I do agree with the notion that Plouffe could provide value to us on the bench. He can play 3B, 1B, and probably LF and RF. Career .828 OPS against lefties. Certainly would be an upgrade over Arcia against LHP. Baseball reference says he is not a free agent until 2018, but I am not sure that is accurate. Either way, he is under control for I believe two more years.
  8. tobi0040
    I wonder if he would not have some trade value. His career .711 OPS would have been 16th among 3B last year. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/OPS/order/true
  9. tobi0040
    Originally Posted by highlander if you are serious about being a champion, you have to make this move. I hope the rotation saws wood till the lumber catches up. Who knows maybe we have a pennant race!!!! Playoffs? http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/08/26/cubs-minor-league-daily-playoffs/jim-mora-playoffs/
  10. tobi0040
    Anytime a more talented player with options makes the team over a less talented player out of options, I am glad to see it.
  11. tobi0040
    Gibson is the 5th starter, according to LEN3. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/4987-Is-Gibson-going-to-be-our-fifth-starter
  12. tobi0040
    Sounds official from LEN3. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/251441951.html
  13. tobi0040
    According to Rhett Bollinger, Gibson is the only one in the running for the 5th starter that will have another start. Could he actually win the job and break camp with the team? Gibson as the 5th starter and Deduno in the bullpen would be ideal for me. I will never fault the Twins for breaking camp with the best possible team. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=5478&line=422105&spln=1
  14. tobi0040
    My worry with this kid is that he never earns Gardy's trust on defense, which is a high hurdle.
  15. tobi0040
    It seems needs to be a power hitter if he is going to be in the league in 3-4 years. But I agree, a little more patience and maybe not trying to pull a ball over the LF wall in an 0-2 count are good strategies. More patience at the plate usually means better pitches to hit.
  16. tobi0040
    Good call, what exactly is his strategy if it doesn't involve hits? Walk every at bat?
  17. tobi0040
    It was a weaker freee agent hitting class, but certainly upgrades existed, specifically at SS and DH. And that is cutting some slack at catcher as we were in on guys that signed elsewhere. AJ specifically wanted to win and Suzuki is probably OK if he can tutor Pinto.
  18. tobi0040
    Good article. You said several things I have thought for years. Gardy's in game substitutions make no sense. That manages in baseball have less impact than the other major sports. The irrational fear of losing the catcher, etc. As it relates to Pinto, I think it highlights Gardy's worst trait. He seems overly stubborn. For some reason he thinks that he can't have a catcher as a bench bat or DH. It is hard to understand how he would think Colabello or Parmelee are better bats than Pinto. So he will likley go with Fryer/Parmelee on the bench, then complain about his bench options later. Seems to me Pinto catching 35-40% of the time, learning from Suzuki daily, and hitting another game or two is the best for the team in the short term and Pinto's development.
  19. tobi0040
    I agree with the sentiment here. Expecting Florimon or Escobar to "step up" and be a MLB SS is probably an uphill battle. Journeyman like Pressly, Matroanni, etc.
  20. tobi0040
    I agree I think they got worse, but also that they are the best team in this division still. Losing Fister hurts. I know they like the rookie, but Fister had a 3.50 ERA over 370 IP the last two years. I think Price for Kinsler hurts them this year, but it was a great move for them down the road. I think they also have risk to the downside for Verlander and Scherzer as well. Max had a 2.90 ERA last year. If he is 50-80 basis points one way of that it will likely be 3.40 to 3.70 versus 2.10 to 2.40. I think Verlander could be wearing down too. He has pitched 1,171 innings in the last five years.
  21. tobi0040
    I would not trade a bullpen arm for a 4th OF. Mastro or Pressly are fine if they are your 4th OF and play once a week. Come July, teams may actually give something up for a reliever, but they won't give up squat for a 4th OF.
  22. tobi0040
    A bit off topic, but doesn't Sano look like CC Sabathia in that picture?
  23. tobi0040
    Yeah, at a minimum he needs another pitch. These guys with an 89 mph fastball that doesn't move have no margin for error.
  24. tobi0040
  25. tobi0040
    I like the Meche circa 2007 and 2008 comp. I think similar results are possible for Hughes (3.67 and 3.98 ERA). Initially hearing Meche made me cringe, because outside of those two years his career ERA is around 5.00. I think Hughes stays in that range or slightly higher.
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