tobi0040

I think Arcia may push himself to DH or 1B. His offensive WAR was +1 in 100 games last year. His defensive WAR was -2. I would bet Mauer would be a better defensive OF than Arcia. Either way I think you have Buxton in CF, Hicks or Rosario in at least one corner.

I don't think it much matters. If he is tinkering with his pitches than E Town for a few starts should be fine.

Oh, the Gardy immeasurable statements. "He really gets after it". A pitcher "was really flipping it".

Agree on the Parmlaee and Colabello comparison. I favor Colabello because he has fewer AB's up here. So I am more comfortable that Parmalee is not an MLB player.

I can't imagine a gentlemans agreement existed. I guess I don't see the point of signing a guy to a minor league deal and saving a spot for him. Why wouldn't we just have signed him to a major league deal then? I think Terry is a straight forward guy and probably said, look around. This is who you are up against. Maybe because they have a relationship Terry told him we don't have any plans to bring in anyone else (which he has not).

I comletely agree. We don't owe Kubel anything. If he can't make this roster, than he would not make any roster out there. He is battling a pair of players that were never top prospects, are older, and have not really done much of anything up here.

Maybe, but he was never really a top prospect. Outside of drafting Levi, we haven't done anything at the position outside of brining in guys that were not well regarded or basically dumped by their teams (Florimon and Escobar). When is the last time the Twins had an above average SS? Bartlett for a year or two here maybe. Then the one or two years Guzman had.

Seth nailed it, Hicks lost his confidence last year. Because it is a throw-away year, starting him in AAA and getting some confidence is probably not the worst thing.

It would be very nice to see a good college pitcher drop to us at #5 and have Kohl and the college pitcher come up about the same time. Having a Sano-Buxton combo of two pitchers would be great. I am not advocating we take a college pitcher just to take one, but it would be fun to follow.

Very reasonable for a very good closer. I never could understand the $10-$15M a year guy that throws 60 innings. I like this deal though.

I think you never know. I was surprised we got someone with some upside for Drew Butera. I was surprised how well we did in the Span deal. I was shocked at how little the Tigers got back for Fister. Sometimes you never know. Different teams may evaluate the same player differently, some teams may have depth in one area and lacking in another. I do think the Twins will get the most value somewhere between now and May, rather than in July. the reason is we are probably one of the very few teams that would be willing to give up a pitcher now. Nobody is going to cry foul that we are giving up on the season and we have Meyer and hopefully Gibson coming up anyway. So if a team that has a large payroll and thinks they have a post-season run this year, like the Braves (or Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Nationals) has a key injury and a lack of depth maybe something can be worked out. At this point the Braves have Gavin Floyd and Freddy Garcia, both battling some big injuries.

I find myself higher on May than most as well. No doubt that he would benefit more than anyone else in the organization by improving his control. But looking into his numbers in more detail, he was really hurt by two very bad starts last year (8 ER each). Here are his numbers if you take those two starts out, in the other 26 starts: 144 IP, 3.75 ERA, 155 K These are very good numbers. Here is his distribution of ER by start. He is keeping his team in games and pitching very well in half his starts (0-2 ER): 0 ER - 5 starts 1 ER - 2 starts 2 ER - 7 starts 3 ER - 4 starts 4 ER - 6 starts 5 ER - 2 starts 8 ER - 2 starts In those two bad starts, he totally lost his control (8 BB in 6.2 IP). His BB/9 goes from 3.96 to 3.68 if you remove those two starts. In 2012, a similar theme. He had a start with 7 ER and two with 6 ER. In the 7 ER start he had 8 BB over 5 IP. His 2012 numbers for a comp, throwing out his worst two starts were: 143 IP, 4.28 ERA, 144K. So he did have a significant improvement in my opinion from 2012 to 2013 (4.28 ERA to 3.75 ERA in 90%+ of his starts) http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa454536&position=P&type=-1&gds=&gde=&season=2013&sort=3,d

I think many things have to go right for the Twins to contend in 2015. Vegas has us at 71 wins this year and at the time that number came out, they were probably expecting Sano and Meyer in June. Don't get me wrong, I think the team will be .500 or slightly above. It will certainly be exciting. 2014 - Plouffe/Sano each half the year at 3B. Meyer over KC for half the year. Hicks should get most the reps in CF. I know Sano won't play next year but for arguments sake when the 71 wins was established. 2015 - Sano a full year at 3B (over Sano/Plouffe), Meyer a full year at SP over (Meyer/KC), Buxton a full year over Hicks. Pinto should see more time at C. Maybe we add another free agent somewhere. But I don't see an additional 20 WAR from 2015, especially with Sano and Buxton basically being rookies. Arcia had what could be considered a very solid half the year as a rookie and his offensive WAR was 1 in 100 games. Plouffe and KC were at 3.6 WAR in 2013. The point of the blog was, in 2011 you have a 63 win team that is about to lose most of the key players to free agency. Your key prospects are a guy that projected as a #2 or #3 starter (Gibson), a guy that projected as an above average CF but not a star (Hicks), and an exciting international player that was 16-17 year old (Sano). They didn't trade any veterans away for prospects. They went two years without signing a single player in free agency who would have been with the team when they were good again. They didn't sign a single international player in the mold of Puig or Cespedes that could help them in the near future. And they didn't trade any young prospects for current MLB players or players knocking on the door (not advocating that we should have traded Sano or Buxton for lesser, MLB talent) The draft and wait strategy did not seem appropriate for a team with the assets we had and I think this strategy is why the turnaround will take 4-5 years. It is a bit of a shame given how this state has built that stadium and how good the fans have been. How many people have paid $30 a seat and $8 per beer to watch this team play.

I agree with him about Hicks being someone else's CF. I think he is eventually traded for a pitcher or SS.

For years, the Twins were a money ball team that had a very good track record. Payroll fluctuated in the $50-60M range, yet the team made the playoffs in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2010. That was about the ceiling, as the team made the second round just once in the six appearances. The villain that kept this team from advancing was always the metrodome. If the Twins had a stadium, payroll could go up and we could compete and make a serious run. Or so the through process went. Target Field opened in 2010 and the Twins increased payroll to $98M payroll (from $65M in 2009). The team made the playoffs and boosted payroll to $113M in 2011. It was time for a run. In 2011, the team totally flopped, going 63-99. Many things went wrong. Joe Mauer only played 82 games and was replaced by Drew Butera, who finished with a .449 OPS in 250 plate appearances (not a typo). Justin Morneau played in only 69 games. Liriano and Duensing has ERA’s north of 5.00. By any measure, it was a disaster year for the Twins. Nobody I know was at the table, but after the season the story goes that Bill Smith wanted to re-sign all the veterans and make another run, ownership was not interested. I can’t blame them, why spend $115M on a 63 win team? Why would 2012 have been any different? He was fired and Terry Ryan was brought back. I was more than giddy that Terry was back. Terry Ryan with an bigger checkbook seemed very appealing. Rebuilding and Team Direction I believe the Twins were caught in no man’s land. We let a slew of veterans go for nothing (or draft picks) and had a relatively weak farm system. This set up two additional 90+ loss seasons. Here we are, year three in what has to be described as a rebuilding effort. Las Vegas odds have the Twins winning 71 games, just a five game improvement over last year. Progress has been painfully slow. Outside of signing Miguel Sano, the Twins have boosted their farm system primarily through drafting #2 (Buxton) and #4 (Stewart), which is simply a function of having a bad record. The approach over the first two years has basically been wait and see. In 2011, the Twins only had four prospects in baseball America’s top 100 (Gibson 34, Hicks 45, Sano 60, and Benson 100). Why was wait and see the right approach for this situation? Let’s see what we have in Scott Diamond, Chris Parmelee, Vance Worley, Plouffe, etc. After a historically bad pitching staff in 2013, the Twins spent $85M on Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and Mike Pelfrey. The approach for the lineup appears has not changed. Of the 25 guys who will break camp with the Twins, how many are likely to be on a 2016 team? Ricky Nolasco, Joe Mauer, Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins, Brian Dozier, and a few bullpen guys. You would expect Meyer and Buxton to be up at some point this year and Sano next year. Other guys are likely to push their way through, like Gibson, Hicks, and potentially Trevor May. But is this all we have to show after 2-3 rebuilding years? Five locks, 2-3 more over the next year, and a few maybe’s? Personally, I think the Twins were way to slow to address their roster. Had we signed a pitcher or two as good or better than Ricky Nolasco in 2012, this team would be in a much better position. And why has the team done nothing to address a lineup that was 13th in the AL in 2013? Why are we watching Suzuki, Fryer, Florimon, Escobar, Pressley, Pelfrey, Correia, Mastroanni, Parmelee, Collabello, and Worley? I understand why the Twins would have not have wanted to sign a 3B or CF, but why have we not addressed SS, C, or DH? We have not had a top prospect at any one of these positions. Future Payroll The Twins were very active early on this offseason, signing Nolasco and Hughes. I was pretty excited. But that was about it. The only other MLB signings were Mike Pelfrey and Kurt Suzuki, which were less than exciting. Payroll should be about $82M this year. However, base payroll will fall to $70M in 2015 (assuming Correia and Willingham leave). Three rookies are close locks to lock down roster spots (Sano, Buxton, and Meyer). Two more, Arcia and Pinto are odds on favorites. It is a good bet at least 2-3 more will push their way through from the group of (Gibson, May, Rosario, and Santana). Translation, this team should have a payroll in about this range for the next few years. Stadiums and Fulfilling Promises The Twins usually cite 52% of revenue as a guide-post for payroll, as a number they won’t exceed. At under 40% of revenues in 2014 and the near future, are the Twins holding up their end of the bargain? Roughly $350M of the $550M stadium was paid for by the tax payers. The stadium has increased the value of the team by almost $300M, which is over $100M more than the Twins contributed (note the Forbes value was $580M prior to the cable deal, which pushed the value of the Twins to $700M). So it would be hard to argue that the stadium hasn’t been a transfer of wealth from the tax payer to the Pohlad’s. They get $300M and I get the right to spend $100 dollars once a year to bring my family to a game. Honestly, I would not care if I felt like the ownership group was doing everything they could, within reason to turn this team around and compete. But in year three, to see our DH role filled by a guy that will be 32 in May, coming off a terrible year, and signed on a minor league deal as well as a the short stop battle will be between a AA player (Florimon) and a 34 year old player that has been hurt and out of the league, also on a minor league contract? That is a tough pill to swallow. Well where does that leave someone like me? Like the quote in the movie Brokeback Mountain, I wish I knew how to quit you. But I can’t. I have been sold on the farm system and the hope of the future. I do vote with my feet to an extent. If we had an ownership group that wanted to break even each year and ratched up payroll to $115-$120M and field a more competitive team each year, I would probably be a 10 game a year guy. In the meantime, another year of I hope Corriea, Willingham, and Pelfrey start out hot so we can trade them and build for the future! Is it me, or is this getting a little old? http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/ https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

On pages 1 and 2 of this thread alone, two people posted a future rotation with no mention of Gibson, other people commented on it. Less than half the comments reference Gibson and when they do it usually is an "if".

He seems to understand we were really looking forward to him this year. Very classy.

In the numerous "blocking" discussions. Gibson is lumped into the same conversation as the others. The Twins could care less about blocking Worley or Diamond. He is a level above these guys.

I cited 3 scenario's for a KC trade: 1) A team like the Blue Jays or Orioles 2) A contender adding depth and using him as a long reliever and insurance policy 3) A team that has an injury between now and April 1 In scenario 1, I think the Blue Jays would be a near lock to take him. The issue with them is nobody wants to sign there and play in Toronto (a trade would be ideal then). Ervin had 1/14 on the table for days and took the same thing from Atlanta within minutes. A story I read showed how upset the Blue Jays GM was and how up a creek they are as their 4th and 5th starters are huge question marks. In scenario 2, it is much easier to add a $5M insurance policy (KC) to your bullpen than it is to add a $12 - $14M insurance policy (Ervin). In scenario 3, I know we had one pitcher on the market and one team had an injury and the deal was done in the same day. Now no more pitchers exist. CC was throwing at 88 mph and got rocked, Garza has a 19.06 ERA so far....are they hurt? I am guessing a few good pitchers get hurt in the next two weeks. If not we could go into the first few weeks of the year. My read is we could move KC now, but think we can get more on July 31st. Gibson will start in AAA and get confidence and Meyer won't be up until June. so I don't think the urgency is there for the Twins.

I am also very high on Gibson. I don't get why everyone is so down on this guy. He was a top 5 or 10 pick pre-injury concern. He falls to us, we get him and at 22 he goes from high A to AAA in one year with a sub 3.00 ERA. Then the next year he is not right and his numbers are shaky, then he needs TJ. Is out a year and half. He puts up a 2.92 ERA in 151 IP in AAA, then after 10 starts (5-6 very bad starts) we lump him into the same conversation as Diamond, Worley, etc.

Respecfully, we both hold equal sway in the Twins front office (none). Almost every post on this site is an opinion directed at what we want the twins to do. What they should do, criticizing or praising what they did, etc. Wouldn't this whole site simply be the Pohlad's and Terry Ryan discussing roster moves if everyone did what you are suggesting?

I believe holding the ownership accountable. Here is a story from 2007 about 50% of revenue from Mr. Pohlad. Seems like they have been at where they stated they would be and what they cite in the Dome (much lower revenue) and year 1 in Target Field. We are under 40% now. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3017356

I agree on all points. That was the point I was making and that truly is the only data point we have.