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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    It seems like we exceeded most peoples expectations because they were very low. It is refreshing to see a long term commitment in a pitcher or two, but this team will likely open the year with a payroll $30M lower than in 2010. A year from now we could see payroll drop further as Willingham and Correa will be off the books and we have a ton of rookies coming up. My verdict is this offseason also exceeded my expectations, but that was a very low hurdle. More should be done and it is clear the objective is to make money first and win second.
  2. tobi0040
    The HOF is 95% numbers, then intangibles like WS games, post-season record, innings pitched can play a role. Curt Schilling is not a first ballot HOF but any writer on the fence after the first year will put him in based on his WS and post-season numbers. Morris is not on the fence I even read an article that cited he wore an American flag on his shirt with a sign that said "try and burn this one". Having to invent reasons is a sign that the player is not HOF worthy.
  3. tobi0040
    I am a big fan of Jack Morris. He will always hold a special place in our hearts and he is a great guy, but his numbers are just not there. Here are his numbers against six pitchers that will get in, all up recently or in the next year: WP ERA WHIP K/9 Jack Morris .577 3.90 1.29 5.8 Randy Johnson .646 3.29 1.17 10.6 Pedro Martinez .687 2.93 1.05 10.0 Curt Schilling .597 3.46 1.13 8.6 Tom Glavine .600 3.54 1.31 5.3 Greg Maddux .610 3.16 1.14 6.1 John Smoltz .594* 3.33 1.18 8.0 *win percentage as a starter Morris is last in win percentage, ERA by far, and six of seven in WHIP and K/9
  4. tobi0040
    he mauer I think this is good article, however I think you have to view Mauers move as a net neutral. We are basically changing out Morneau for Suzuki-Pinto. I expect Mauer to be better because he will stay healthier and play more, but we can't assume .270 with 17 hr out of this platoon.
  5. tobi0040
    I could not agree more. The Twins should stay away from this bidding war. Every report I have read suggests his stuff is not comparable to Yu's. Yu has had a few good years, but so did Nomo and Dice-K (to someone else's point). In fact, look at Dice-K in his second year, 18-3 with a 3.60 ERA and a ton of K's. That guy is a step away from being back in Japan. So to give this unproven commodity the type of money a guy like James Shields would likely fetch is crazy. Lastly, teams like the Mariners or Giants can likely view $3-5M a year of his salary as a marketing expense because they are likely to recoup that in ticket sales, concessions, TV viewing, jerseys, etc. The Twins aren't in that position.
  6. tobi0040
    Given the Twins situation at the time (no pitching depth in the system), I don't think Buxton was no-brainer. The next three draft picks were a catcher that ripped up the minors and was in the majors in one year, and two pitchers that project very well (all needs). Many boards had Appel as the #1 guy on their boards as well, although he had signability concerns. So they took the best guy on their board over many glaring needs, that should be praised.
  7. tobi0040
    I love this trade. We had depth and let's face it, Doumit wasn't even an average DH, which is where he probably would have seen the most AB's. At a bare minium, this guy looks like a very good lefty specialist out of the pen. Best case a #3 or #4 starter. I read in another report that his change and slider are both plus offerings.
  8. tobi0040
    Let's not forget, the payroll picture appears as if it will be heading lower in the future as well. Next year you have Willingham ($7M), Correa ($5M), and Doumit ($3.5M) coming off the books. It is likely that you will have league minimums at 3B (Sano), CF (Buxton), C (Pinto), SP (Meyer), SP (Gibson), several bullpen guys, and potentially LF (Hicks) as a starting point.
  9. tobi0040
    I can buy the argument that the Twins realize the stadium effect will wear off and any more 90 or even 85+ loss seasons will cause a serious drop in attendence. Has anyone noticed not one person has said the Twins are spending this money because ownership is dedicated and passionate about winning and would rather win than make money? You have to wonder why the Pohlads still own the team. They don't seem passionate about winning and they don't seem to like the limelight of owning a team. I wish they would sell to a person who would be a passionate, win at all costs owner. By and large, the dramatic rise in franchise value has already happened after the stadium was built, so please move on.
  10. tobi0040
    I would welcome a minor league deal with Johan. It is tough to expect a viable comeback, but would be a very low cost move. If the worst thing that can happen is you pay him a few hundred thousand dollars to be around and mentor guys like !Meyer and Gibson it seems like that would not be the end of the world . I hope nothing comes of this mark reynolds chatter. That guy is a total hack
  11. tobi0040
    Agreed. It is refreshing to see the likes of Liam moved out, Walters, Devries, etc. I am done with Parmalee. With Mauer at 1B, he needs to be a DH or corner OF. He has not shown anything that resembles that. I am not ready to give up on Hicks (way too talented and young), Gibson (51 IP is not enough), and Deduno (he has good stuff). I am OK with leaving Plouffe in there until Sano comes up because he hit 24 HR a few years back and what other option do we have at 3B. Worley and Diamond need to rip up AAA early next year or they can go as well.
  12. tobi0040
    I think you never know for sure (like you said), but need to take calculated risks. Deduno had a 3.83 ERA last year, I think that is better than Pelfrey's ceiling at this point. Hart was hurt last year, but would likely stay healthy as a guy who gets up and swings the bat 5-6 times a few times a game. His numbers year by year are on another level than Doumit's, even in the good year Doumit had with us.
  13. tobi0040
    Good point. Which of these two scenarios would yield more wins next year: Pelfrey as a starter and Doumit/Parmalee at DH Or Deduno/Gibson as a starter and Corey Hart as the DH? I know we should be able to afford both, but I have to see it to believe it.
  14. tobi0040
    The Twins are not going to contend next year and 2015 will likely be the first full year of Sano, Buxton, and Meyer. So we should be better but we may not contend in 2015 either. Wouldn't it make sense to give reps to Gibson, Meyer, and Deduno over Pelfrey? Nolasco, Correa, and Hughes are going to start. I think Meyer has a spot in June, his stuff is filthy and the best in our system. Does it make sense long-term to have Pelfrey instead of Gibson or Deduno? Aren't they more likely to be part of the next contending team? IMO, they have an even shot at having the same ERA as Pelfrey next year anyway and we have other holes.
  15. tobi0040
    I think one of two things happened. The most likely scenario is this is the off-season where the Twins finally understood that free agent prices were not going to flatten out or go down. Seems like we don't get involved every years because the prices go up higher than where we think they should be. Or, the reports were true that we had legitimate offers last season to guys like Joe Saunders and others, who didn't want to sign here because we have lost 95 games two years in a row (three now). So we realized that we need to be aggressive and get the team to .500 first, then make another jump to contention with a few more pieces.
  16. tobi0040
    Our starting pitching was ranked 29th by ERA. We have signed three pitchers and spent $84M. Our lineup was ranked 25th by runs. We have not spent a single dollar and at the moment we are swapping Morneau for Pinto in the lineup. In theory, we do have money to spend and signing Pelfrey should not stop us from getting a bat. But this is the Twins and it will.
  17. tobi0040
    You typically need to adjust .30 to .50 for an NL to AL shift. So his true career average should be in the 4.70 to 5.00 range. Now factor in TJ. 4.00 is not happening.
  18. tobi0040
    His career ERA is 4.48 over 1,050 innings (85% of which were in the NL and pre TJ). I think an ERA of 4.00 is highly unlikely. Let's call it what it is, a bad risk/reward and quite frankly, an unneccesary contract. We have younger, cheaper options who have more upside. In addition, our offense was ranked 25th last year and we haven't addressed it. We could have used this money in a more productive manner.
  19. tobi0040
    Calling this a decent gamble and the other story with the headline "betting against the house" has made me think about the risks/reward here. My conclusion is the Twins negotiated a really bad deal. You make a bet when the odds are in your favor, or when the potential payoff warrants the risks. What is the payoff here? I would argue the range of outcomes are somewhere between his floor (last years 5.20 ERA) and his ceiling is probably around his career mark of 4.50. I get that he had two years in the 3.60-3.70 range, but that was three and five years ago, in the NL, and pre TJ. So the best case is he is a #4 or #5 starter and the worst case is he is our 7th or 8th best pitcher. If he hits his incentives which are likely based on innings alone, we will pay him $14.5M over two years. So we either pay a 4/5 starter 4/5 starter money or we pay a terrible pitcher $11M and either cut him or trade him and eat salary.
  20. tobi0040
    Thank you for posting Hart's numbers to put some context to my point. Corey Hart has been much better than our DH options (arcia and josh in rf and lf). Hart will stay healthy as the dh. I am done with parmalee and collabello. if Doumit is the backup lf, rf, dh, and allows us not to use a roster spot for a third catcher we will be in a good position.Further, it is certainly possible willingham or Hart if we would have signed him could be movemid-season. so I don't think we are as deep as we think. At some point we need to add offense and when you go around the Diamond we have holes at ss, c, and dh. The best bet for an upgrade is at DH. Clearly dozier and mauer are there. the corner outfields are ok and we are holding 3b and cf for certain top prospects
  21. tobi0040
    Time will tell I guess, but I believe he is not in our top 5 right now, and certainly won't be when we bring up Meyer in June. So we have $11M locked up in a guy that should not be in the rotation. But of course he will be in the rotation because of his salary. The money could have been better spent elsewhere, like Corey Hart for example. He could have been a good DH for us.
  22. tobi0040
    We could point to a number of stats to make a point.But let's not overthink this. The team with the most runs per game wins. Last year Deduno gave up 3.83 per 9 innings. Pelfrey gave up 5.19. Deduno has the edge 4.06 to 4.48 for their careers. Tht point is Dedeno, Meyer, and probably Gibson can put up similar or better numbers next year for 400k and getting experience for the future.
  23. tobi0040
    He was nowhere near our best pitcher. Deduno had a 3.60 era. This move is mind boggling. 5-13, 5.19 era, 1.50 whip should not earn a roster spot, let alone a raise and an additional year. For all this tj talk, he had a 5.00 era in august and september. Between deduno, gibson, and meyer we have guys making no money with more upside. And my last point, war for pitchers makes no sense. Let me provide two examples. Ervin santana has a 2.4 war and had a 3.24 era. Pelfrey's was 2.1 even though he gave up two additional er for every nine innings? the concept of wins above replacement would imply that a pitcher that allows more runs than the league average (like pelfrey) would have a negative war. pelfreys era was roughly the same as the twins starters last year and we ranked 29 out of 30.
  24. tobi0040
    All I keep hearing from multiple reports is that the Twins had an offer for 2/10 and have upped it to 2/12. I have a friend who works for the Twins who believes we will end up signing Pelfrey (he is five for five on these things). I give us kudos for signing Nolasco and Hughes, but this one is mind boggling. He is exactly why we needed better pitching. He was and is terrible. Second, you have three rotation spots set with Nolasco, Hughes, and Correa. Meyer, Deduno, and Gibson are all better and/or have more upside, and much cheaper than Pelfrey.
  25. tobi0040
    I actually have the transcript from the calls between Terry Ryan and Scott Boras (Pelfreys agent): Ryan: We are interested in bringing Pelfrey back, but only for one year. Boras: He is fielding multiple offers, it will take two years. The other teams know what my client can do. Did you know his ERA was under 4.00 three years ago? Ryan: Fine, we will go 2 years and $10M. We think Pelfrey can marginally improve upon his 5-13 record, 5.19 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 10.8 H/9, 6K/9, and .300 average against Boras: We will settle for 2 years, but we have many teams calling so it is going to cost more Ryan: How come I have not heard a single team linked to Pelfrey, even for a one year deal? Boras: Many teams are out there, including teams in both leagues Ryan: Ok, we will do 2 years and $12M. We need to get this ace locked up. We are particularly intrigued by his 5.00 ERA over the last two months. We feel like he really transitioned after the typical first few month’s struggles from TJ.
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