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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    So we are going with fastball velocity over actual results? That 94 mph fastball has gotten Pelfrey a 4.48 era over 1,048 innings. That 86 mph fastball got Chen a 4.49 era. Chen's K rate per nine is 6.7 compared to Pelfreys 5.2. Over the last full four years they have pitched, Chen has a 4.20 era compared to Pelfreys 4.61. Maybe a lack of secondary offerings for Pelfrey offsets the velocity and mixing pitches has worked well for Chen? We have a lot of different stats available, but we should always look at actual results as well, especially when you have two established guys with north of 1k innings. My original point is the second year and annual amount was high given comparable guys like Chen who signed for fewer dollars and years.
  2. tobi0040
    From my perspective, he is a career 4.45 guy, mainly in the NL. His last year in Pittsburgh he was moved to the bullpen. Then he comes to the AL and has a 4.20. This would be a great time to sell high. I would not want to give him an extension based on last year because I don't think we will see a repeat.
  3. tobi0040
    Here is a good article about Arroyo. They think he will eventually get 2/20 with an option. I would do that and move Correa as I think last year he out-performed. You get a better pitcher for another year for a little more. I am guessing we wished we signed Arroyo instead of Pelfrey. http://espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/stark_jayson/id/10369584/how-free-agent-starter-bronson-arroyo-unemployed
  4. tobi0040
    I agree completely. Every other year we wait for the prices to fall and they don't. At least we improved our staff this year.
  5. tobi0040
    Compare Pelfreys contract and stats to Bruce Chen, who just signed a one year deal at $4.25M, with a mutual option at $5.5M and a $1M buyout. Chen and Pelfrey have essentially the same career ERA. Chen's ERA over the last four years: 4.17, 3.77, 5.07, and 3.27.
  6. tobi0040
    If Arroyo's price falls into the 2/16 to 2/18 range I could see Terry signing him and selling high on Correa. You don't want five veterans blocking Meyer and Gibson, on a team that is unlikely to compete.
  7. tobi0040
    I thought I would throw out there that Pelfrey will likely pitch 300-400 innings the next two years. So the mentor thing is great....but.
  8. tobi0040
    I like Drew at 3/30 or less. Two with an option would be preferred. If we are going to pick a potential 4th or 5th starter with our second round pick like Eades, this would not be worth much in my opinion. Also, things can change over the next year that can turn a draft from deep to average or worse. Players get hurt, struggle, fail tests, get suspended, etc. Sean Mannea was supposed to be a candidate for 1-1 and he went in the second round. Jonathan Gray was not a first round pick and not even a Friday starter at the beginning of the year. Gonslaves went from the first round to the fourth. It is early.
  9. tobi0040
    Dealing from a position of strength for a high end pitching prospect is one I like. Even if Meyer doesn't turn out, I would support similar trades in the future.
  10. tobi0040
    Well there you have it. We gave Pelfrey 2/12 because Meyer needed a friend.
  11. tobi0040
    I think the rotation and pen are a difficult comparison. You can typically take 2-3 guys that bounce around each year, 3 current players on your team, and 6-7 prospects to duke it out for the six bullpen spots. Most of these guys are making $500K a year and you are only asking for 50-70 innings out of each, often situational. Rotation guys make more and are asked to pitch 160-200 innings. I guess what I am trying to say is it is easier and cheaper to patch together a bullpen. Last year is a perfect example, we were not lacking quantity, but quality.
  12. tobi0040
    Colon on the road in the last two years: 2012: 3.27 ERA in 89 IP (3.54 at home) 2013: 2.73 ERA in 63 IP (2.58 at home)
  13. tobi0040
  14. tobi0040
    Did he expand on Meyer at all? Seems like a 98 mph fastball and 91 mph slider would be closer to MLB's ranking of 28.
  15. tobi0040
    I agree, and Sano's defense may impact his value at the plate. If he can't stick at 3B and moves to 1B, LF, or DH his value drops. He would still lead this team in OPS or be in the top 2, but his value takes a hit. Compare that with guys that can hit and are locks to stay at SS like Correa or Russell. Some find his K's as an issue as well.
  16. tobi0040
    Here is the issue for me. Instead of having Yoon at 2/10, Correa at 2/10, and Pelfrey at 2/12, why not have one good pitcher at $16M a year? Bartolo Colon signed a 2/20 deal. Garza would be less annually, although more in years. But if we have $5-$10M every year in these flier type deals, it is the same as signing Colon or Garza once. The Correa deal worked out in year 1, but anyone that wants to talk about how great that deal was.....I raise you Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, the deal that Baker turned down from us last year, Pelfrey last year, Livan Hernandez, etc.
  17. tobi0040
    I agree with 1-4, however when Sano bumps Plouffe in June, I think Plouffe is the best in house right handed candidate (better than Romero). Not sure if you see it that way or not. Plouffe is only three months older and Romero's numbers in the minors don't blow you away.
  18. tobi0040
    Personally I find his his confidence refreshing. But I do worry about Gardy becoming frustrated with him and in Gardy fashion, communicating his shortcomings through the media.
  19. tobi0040
    I thought he should have been in the top 100 too, until I looked at mlb's position rankings. They have him as the 8th best 2b. Five of the guys ahead of him had a higher ops in 2012 and one or two guys behind him had a higher ops as well.
  20. tobi0040
    I I think the issue is the alternative is Florimon. We sit here and think Drew's shortcomings are still better than the alternative. I also believe no Drew means the Pohlad's will pocket the money, which many agree with
  21. tobi0040
    I dont think anyone is adoring him. But we have money to spend, nobody coming up, and he is a clear 2 to 4 win upgrade at SS. Anything under 3-33 makes sense
  22. tobi0040
    It was a quick look. I would question the model a bit. Our 614 runs was 13th in the AL last year, yet 663 will be 14th next year. Seems like maybe the model is overly optimistic all around. Either way, it was interesting to me that the team that won the WS scored an additional 230 runs. That was the point. Still a few glaring needs on offense. I think with Cruz and Drew we could be close to .500 next year, then push for the playoffs is Sano, Buxton, and Meyer come up and play like everyone thinks they will in the next year or two.
  23. tobi0040
    This is what the Yankees did in 2008 or 2009. They signed CC, Teixera, and Burnett in the same off-season. Instead of 3 first round picks, they lost a 1, 2, and 3. YOY, Drew over Florimon and Morales/Cruz over Parmalee/Doumit at DH has to be a 4-6 win improvement. If we could only do one I would prefer Drew.
  24. tobi0040
    I would like to point out the difference on the 20-80 scale between Buxton and everyone else. They have Buxton at a 75 overall, prospects 2-15 are all 65. #1 Prospects fail at times. Dice-K (2007), Delmon (2006), Marte (2005), Rick Ankiel as a pitcher (2000), but it is hard to see how Buxton could. His defense, speed, and arm should always be with him. So even if he was a below average hitting CF, he should see 500 at bats. It is hard to see how anything under .270, 8-10 HR, 40+ SB could be possible. I think he will be much better in all categories, but it is hard to see a floor under that. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=prospects
  25. tobi0040
    It seems a little odd to me that we have neglected the offense. We are basically swapping Suzuki/Pinto for Morneau, then hoping Sano and Buxton can be up here in June, which could easily turn into September. We were 13th in the AL in runs scored, with 614. Compare our 614 runs scored last year with the four playoff teams (Boston 853, Detroit 796, Oakland 767, and Tampa Bay 700). We have some work to do on that side of the ball as well.
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