tobi0040

Good point. a deal would likely fall between Longoria's incredibly team friendly 15 years-144 million and Trout's not so friendly 6 year 150 million. I wonder how much of a contract like that can be insured? My understanding was 4-5 years was about the max for a pitcher but you could insure more for a position player

Tampa is paying Longoria $6M a year. He has averaged an OPS of .870, 29.5 HR, and 98 RBI a year (career numbers / 5.5) I am guessing they are not dissapointed. Exactly 8 players have a career OPS over 1.00. Ever. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_career.shtml

There is a way you can structure it in a manner that makes sense for both Buxton and the team. It would involve him making a lot more in the years when he would be on a rookie deal, then taking a discount as a free agent. With regard to the Trout deal, it seems to me they are paying him more now than they otherwise would, but then they turn around and pay him $35 and $38M in his first two free agent years? A-Rod dwarfs every other position player at $28M a year. Then you have Pujols at $24M, Prince at $23M. So this one is a head scratcher for me. And it isn't even as long, he is a free agent at 28.

Let me give you one example of how an even money SS for OF is rare. The Rangers refused to give up Profar for Justin Upton. These guys are not on the same level, but it speaks to the scarcity at the SS position, relative to OF.

This lineup does not look like we will hit many HR's. Certainly guys like Buxton or Rosario could develop more power, but the lineup below looks a little HR challenged to me, save Sano and Arcia. 1B - Mauer 2B - Dozier/Polanco SS - Draft pick or defensive SS 3B - Sano DH - Arcia OF - Hicks CF - Buxton OF - Rosario C - Pinto

I don't think we are assuming that. But keeping 30 teams in the running versus 15 should help us get a better return.

I would say Buxton is a near lock at CF, Arcia is a near lock at DH. From there I would like to see Hicks or Rosario, whoever pans out the best in one of the corner spots. The excess traded for pitching or a short stop. The idea of 3 CF's in the outfield sounds great defensively, but I would like one masher in one corner. This is a relatively easy place to find guys on the FA market. Think Cruz 1 year $8M. We can hide the defense to an extent with two CF's next to him.

I agree that if Turner is just average defensively or is not a lock to stick at SS, you want to take a SP with 98+ gas.

With Drew Payroll would be about $92M. We lose $12M next year (Corea and Josh). So start at $80M and add back 2 starters making the minimum, add a CF making the minimum, potentially both corner OF making min. (Arcia and Hicks), and a 3B making the minimum. A payroll at $80M is $30M to $40M below the recommendation of 52% of revenue. Really a moot point, Shields will get a 6-7 year, $150M+ contract and we aren't going there for a pitcher. But this should not stop us from doing anything.

I think it was Keith Law that said Jackson wants to move out from catcher.

That is the point I keep coming back to. $10M a year for the next 2-3 years does not mean we can't afford anyone later. They signed pitchers because our staff was embarrassing and know that if that marginally improves, the heat will be off t hem for the most part. That seems to be the motivation, just enough.

Agreed on the comp, Turner looks much more promising.

I think the Turner/Michael comps will come. Here are their college stats. The glaring difference is speed. Turner is an 80 speed guy. His freshman SB total is probably a better reflection given he had an ankle issue last year. He is 5-5 in SB attempts this year in just 4 games. Regardig his defense, I read Turner should stay at SS, has the footwork, range, and arm. Trae Turner Freshman - .338 average, 5 HR, .891 OPS, 57 SB Sophomore - .368 average, 7 HR, 1.008 OPS, 30 SB Levi Michael Freshman - .290 avg, 13 HR, .909 OPS, 5 SB Sophomore - .346 avg, 9 HR, 1.059 OPS, 20 SB Junior - .305 avg, 4 HR, .911 OPS, 14 SB I would be very happy with Turner or one of the flamethrowing guys like Kolek or Hoffman.

I agree they are intersted in winning in the back half of 2015 and 2016. I was hoping we had a group interested in winning every year, or at least fielding a competitive team.

That may be, but I refuse to believe we could not have paid up or traded for a better SS or DH than Floriomon and Kubel/Parmalee. So upgrades were out there without a pick attached. Kubel may magically come back to 2-3 years ago levels, but I have read his bat has really slowed down. So he is a question mark. I think this ownership group has a profit first model, and spend enough to say we spent and keep enough people coming to the park so they can remain profitable. I have heard Dave St. Peter and Terry Ryan throw around the $90M they spent on pitchers this offseason when asked about payroll. Funny enough LEN3 repeated the quote verbatim on his chat the other day when a person asked why payroll is the same. So get used to that talking point for the next year as we watch a AA SS and a AAA DH.

Remember when Gardy was on Scott Baker about not coming back soon enough.....when he had a strained flexor tendon, then the doctor went in and found a strained UCL?

Here is the problem I get myself into. I am a die hard fan and sit here and assume that the Twins want to win. I sit here think that is the objective. I think they want to win, but the main objective is to run this team as profitable as possible. So when we sit here and debate signing Drew and how we would obviously win more games as a result......those 3 wins simply are not worth $8-9M dollars to this front office and ownership group. Signing Morales or Cruz and the wins associated is not worth $12M. That is the harsh reality. Most would love to see these moves (if short term deals). Consider a few things. Forbes pegged this team at a profit of $10M last year. This year our payroll remains the same while revenue is up nearly $40M. So this team should make $50M next year. The value of the Twins, pre-stadium (mostly publicly funded) was $214M. Last year, Forbes calculated the value at $560M. Bloomberg has the value now at $700M, with the increase related to the new media deal (added $110M to each franchise). So this team is up nearly half a billion dollars, or 250% in the span of 6-7 years. By any measure, our fans are some of the best in the game. We have gone out to the games to watch horrible baseball for 3 years in a row. Would it be the end of the world to throw us a bone with Drew and/or Cruz/Morales? Would that be asking too much? We would not hamper our future and this team would still be well in the green next year. We should not have to watch Florimon at SS or sit here and try and justify the signing. This is a conversation that should have happened at Target field in October and it should have been a relatively simple one. http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/morning_roundup/2013/10/minnesota-twins-value-700-million.html

The fact that it has happened before, does not mean they happen a lot. You have cited some pretty extreme cases. In the case of the Teixera and Beckett deal, you are talking about franchise caliber players. The Red Sox have at least one fewer WS without Beckett and Lowell. Teixera would be like moving Mauer or Morneau in 2007. Sano is one of the best 10-15 prospects probably in the last 10 years.

I should have added an asterisk. *trades made by Bill Smith do not count. The guy gave up a good SP and a good SS, the two hardest positions to fill.

True, but you don't see young, good SS being shipped off in these deals. Profar for example was un-touchable to the point it was ridiculous. Terry Ryan even said they had to target a pitcher in low A because teams don't trade SP's in the MLB or close to. I think you do have to balance BPA with the supply available. Either way, the good news is this draft appears heavy at SP and SS, so we may be able to do both.

Who is available on the market, that will get you 30-40 additional hits, 25 additional extra base hits over there replacement, for under $10M a year? Keep in mind under no circumstance are we going to sign a CF or 3B. I am also betting we don't want to add a corner OF because internally we want to give at-bats to Hicks and Arcia and are hoping for Willingham to have some trade value. To me, the obvious spots are SS and potentially DH. I don't see a huge, cheap upgrade out there. I think SS is either Florimon or Drew. Beltran signed for $15M more than Arcia and will likely not have 40 additional hits and 25 more extra base hits. Cruz will sign for more than $10M a year IMO.

You can choose to look at 8.5% of his career games. I disagree with that approach. And I think you are missing the point, just about any metric has Drew superior to Florimon. Lefties, Righties, etc. I agree we do need a better long term answer at SS, which will likely be addressed through the draft and is 3 years away from contributing. In the meantime, signing Drew should not change any other payroll related discussion. Our payroll is at $82M. 52% of our revenue this year should be close to $125-130M ($215M revenue last year, plus new TV reveune and all star revenue), and we have $12M off the books after this season in Josh and Correa with rookies likely filling those positions.

Overall I agree. But if you accept a few things off the bat as truths, I think you need to adjust this somewhat: 1) We have no SS in our system that projects as the answer. Good SS rarely hit free agency. Remember what we paid Adam Everrett a few years ago? 2) Buxton should be our CF for the next 10+ years. Guys that have value at CF typically have a lot less value at LR or RF. 3) We will never sign a top of the rotation free agent starting pitcher

The Twins will have every incentive to bring Sano and Meyer up right after June 1. We want to keep their service back (Twins way) and the marketing machine will want a boost after watching this team for the first 60 games. Until then, Meyer will need to work on (insert control or presence, or change up) and Sano will need to work on (insert defense or K's).