tobi0040

I wonder what his runs created number is offensively compared to the league? .221 average, .281 OBP, .611 OPS, 44 RBI That is Butera-ble.

We don't know what his asking price is, but I would bet 3/30 or a two year deal is where he ends up. Matt Garza only got a four year deal at $13M a year. So I don't see Drew getting close to that.

I don't buy this. The only real reason other than payroll is the second round pick. Since 1990, we have had exactly five players who were drafted in the second round see significant time in the big leagues for us (Baker, Slowey, Crain, Jacque, and Swarzak). Nobody can argue we have much of anything in the pipeline or that Drew is not better than Florimon. This is primarily a financial decision. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg

In reading the theme from posts covering different topics, a majority of the people on here don't seem to be advocating signing a $20M+ player, or giving Tanaka the deal the Yankees gave him. What I see are fans that are frustrated that our payroll will end up where was last year when we fielded our third straight 95 loss season. Most realize that we are not going to sign a 3B or CF, for obvious reasons. But that we could use Drew, potentially a DH, and maybe another starter. I don't see anyone asking for the moon. Just a payroll somewhere in between where it was last year ($84M) and the 52% of revenue mark that MLB recommends which would be in the neighborhood of $115M.

I would analyze the Yankees off-season this way. I think their main goal was signing Cano but not giving out a 10 year deal at $200+ million. I think they would have, but they were playing poker and thought he wasn't really going to leave. So they lost that hand of poker, then had a knee jerk reaction and overpaid a bunch of other players. Ellsbury has missed 250 games in the last four years and they gave him a 7 year deal, through 38. He has 65 career HR and 32 of those were in one year. Tanaka has not thrown a pitch here. They are paying for Beltran through ages 36-39. I think at the beginning of the off-season they would have preferred Cano to these guys. Big picture, when the Yankees could land anyone they wanted they assembled good teams every year. Now the Dodgers, Tigers, Rangers, and Red Sox spend money and the Yankees lack of farm system has been exposed.

I agree. Garza probably gets 5/75. You know what you are getting with him, a number 2 starter and that is what you are paying. The other crazy thing is they held firm on Cano, the best 2B in the game. Then they give more annually to a question mark. I know Cano's deal was longer, but many think if the Yankees were close to Seattle's offer Cano would have stayed in New York. Over the next 3-4 years you can say that Cano will be the best 2B in the game. You can't say anything like that for Tanaka.

This is the same deal Felix Hernandez received when you add in the $20M post fee, I think only Verlander and Kershaw make more. For a guy that has never pitched here and who scouts say does not compare to Darvish Felix Hernandez has a career 3.20 in 9 seasons. 3 seasons with an ERA under 2.67. 8.4 K per 9. The other thing that hasn't been talked about, Yu Darvish's success here certainly made this guy more attractive, but Yu has only been here two years. Nomo and Dice-K had two very good years as well. Nomo first two years 2.90 ERA, he ended at 4.24 Dice-K first two years 3.73 ERA, he ended at 4.52 Yu's first two years, 3.34 ERA, he ended at ????? We should be applauding this. I think this guys opt out may be laughable in four years.

Touche. Certainly it is possible for him to turn it around defensively, Florimon improved his fielding percentage from .945 to .975 from 23 to 25. You stated the Twins view Santana as next in line and I wanted to point out he has some work to do. Sano can get awat with it for now because he can hit like crazy, is younger, does not play ss, and can move to dh or flop with Mauer.

Gagne was 20 years old when he was in AA, Santana was 23. If you look at fielding percentage, Santana was at .943 last year. Florimon was at .973 in the majors and Stephen Drew was at .984. I am guessing .943 lands you about last in the MLB, this list only goes to 20. Some may find it unfair to compare a 23 year old to major leaguers, but I am guessing the balls come at the SS a lot faster in the big leagues. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/ss/order/true

I agree, the important thing is we are nowhere near where we could be and we are landing in the same spot. MLB recommends 52% of revenue on payroll. Last year the Twins had $216M in revenue and that should go up with the new TV deal and the all-star game. We are at 39% of revenue, $29M short. Keep in mind that many MLB teams go well above this recommendation. http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

I completely agree. I think signing Drew (SS) and Corey Hart (DH) would have brought payroll to $100M. The team would still make money and those two could have been the difference between 74-75 wins and 79-80 wins. Next year we are basically a .500 team and we can sell that along with Sano, Buxton, and Mayer as to why a good free agent would want to sign here.

I would not hold my breath regarding Danny Santana at SS. Terry Ryan mentioned him as a dark horse candidate this year, but let's look at his defensive numbers: 2011 - 27 errors in 78 games at short 2012 - 18 errors in 85 games at short 2013 - 32 errors in 125 games at short (23 years old) Terry seems to treasure defense at SS, I don't know if he is going to hand it to a guy with this many errors. At this rate he would have 39 errors in 155 games. His .719 OPS is probably not enough offense to overlook the defense. Plouffe had fewer errors at SS and was moved. The last major reps he had at SS were: 2009: 26 errors in 111 games 2010: 11 errors in 92 games Admittedly, Plouffe's range could have been a factor (I am not sure how they compare). But to move the one guy and think the other is the answer at SS seems odd. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=santan001dan http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=plouff001tre

I agree. It is dissapointing to see payroll basically where it was last year with all this excess revenue from the new TV deal, Target field, and the all star game. SS and DH are two positions where signing a good player could add 2-3 wins for each position in my opinion (and not block prospects). After moving Doumit, the only real DH option we have is Kubel, who had a .610 OPS last year. We basically made no financial investment there and are hoping he returns to form. If you look hard enough, you can find an aging corner OF or 1B that can convert to DH and hit for you without a huge investment. Think Vlad Guerrero or Frank Thomas a few years ago.

That is exactly what my premise was. In May I think you have either a good starter or a very good set up guy. I am not convinced Revere is a major league player, certainly not one on a good team. Offensively, he has a career .650 OPS in 1,300 at bats, as he only has 45 extra base hits. His career OBP (.325) is too low for a lead-off hitter. And his arm is a huge limitation, I don't know if they keep a stat about runners advancing, but he would have to lead the category or be close. So I think he is a #9 hitting center fielder on a poor team. Clearly he had no value on the Twins, you can't have a guy like that in LF or RF.

I don't get the Swarzak comp, May has better stuff. Throws a lot harder. I don't recall Swarzak ever striking out a batter an inning in high A - AAA. I think we give May another year as a starter to get his BB/9 around 3.5. If he is walking too many people I would think he could be a 7th or 8th inning guy. If he throws 94-95 over 6-7 innings I would think he could dial it up to 97-98 for one inning. Either way, a good return for Ben Revere.

It is unfortunate we have been linked to Reynolds and I would hate to see that signing. You can pencil him in for .230, 20-25 HR, and 180-220K. He will K about 3 x as much as BB. And he grades out as a poor defensive 3B. I see very little upgrade over Plouffe, if any and Sano could be here out of spring training or in June.

I agree with this. You can paint a real rosy picture and still not get these runs scored and allowed to even. For example, if you get 200 IP from Nolasco, 160 from Hughes, 120 from Meyer, and 175 from Pelfrey and they average out to a 4.25 ERA, you only cut 72 runs allowed out (versus the starter ERA of 5.25 last year). Now you have scored 614 runs and allowed 716. We can probably expect better play out of CF and if Sano comes up in June and is healthy, more production out of 3B. Potentially better output out of Willingham and the DH rule if Kubel bounces back, but it is hard to close the 100 run gap with the lack of moves we had made on the offense. If we close that gap, we are a .500 team.

Exactly. So the issue is, would the Twins rather have an $80M payroll and 3 fewer wins, or an $87M payroll with 3 more wins? I think they would rather pocket the money. I hope I am wrong.

Here are their career numbers: Drew .264 avg, .329 OBP. A year with 550 AB will roughly yield 145 hits, 30 2B, 9 3B, 13 HR, 49 BB Floriomon .219 avg, .278 OBP, 550 AB will yield roughly 120 hits, 23 2B, 2 3B, and 10 HR, 44 BB I am confused how 25 hits, getting on base another 30 times, and 17 more extra base hits does not win more games.

I am a huge Twins fan. I watch them almost every day and make it to the ballpark 5-10 times a year. But as a fan it is hard not to feel like a sucker. The Twins consistently let good players walk via free agency or trade. The culprit was always the Metrodome. If you give us a stadium, we could keep guys, sign free agents, and compete. That was the mantra. The Pohlad’s got their stadium. They put up $130 million dollars and we put up $390 million dollars in the form of sales taxes. The value of the team, according to Forbes went from $216 million in 2006 to $578 million in 2013. By my calculation, the Pohlad’s did not really put up any money because the increase in team value ($362 million) vastly exceeded what they put up ($130 million). So the statement about nothing wrong with a business making money does not really apply in my view, as 3M, Medtronic, etc. are not funded with tax-payer money. Do these companies get tax savings when they build an office? Yes, but I assure you the state is not building them the office for free, not even close. And those benefits are tied to actual results, like number of emlpoyees that make $50k or more, etc. The other argument that does not apply is “Target field helps the tax base and economy”. Of course it does, but I assure you those profit seeking businesses I mentioned above could cause more damage to the local economy if they left town and took their 20,000 jobs with them. Taxes, home values, etc. would be in a much worse position than if the Twins left. Circling back here to the Twins payroll, given the facts above, I would like to see the Twins go out and sign Drew and potentially a DH (or trade for one). They have money to spend and these signings would help the team and not block any of our top prospects. Paying $400K for Pedro Florimon to hit .200 with an OPS just in the 6’s is embarrassing. Like I said in another post, the Twins payroll was 19th in 2006, if we have an $80M payroll this year we will be 22nd. We have lagged the league even with the stadium. Promises were broken and we have been fleeced. http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/33/330400.html http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

If we wanted to trade for Hardy, we should track Hoey down and sign him, then flip him for Hardy. Done and done.

I completely agree. Santana rotates an ERA of 3.50 with an ERA of 5.00 on and off year after year. Odds are we would be on the hook for a 5.00+ ERA two or three times and paying $16M a year for it (assuming he gets a five year deal). I still think Santana, Garza, and Ubaldo are going to get large deals after Tanaka signs. Too much money and too many teams chasing a few guys.

Here are the twins fantasy rankings. Mauer is still rated at catcher (7th) and Dozier is 13th. Willingham is our top rated OF at 52nd. Plouffe is 29 at 3b. Regarding the Drew/Florimon debate, they didn't even rate Florimon and they rated 33 SS. They called him a "negative fantasy player". Drew's carrer OPS is 140 points higher. Given our low payroll and that we will not find a better opportunity for upgrade, this is a no-brainer http://m.startribune.com/sports/?id=240032491&c=y

I just looked up historical payroll info and I wish I hadn't. In 2006, the Twins had a payroll of $63M and were 19th in the league. If we have an $80M payroll next year, we would be 22nd based on last years ranking. Why exactly did we get a stadium? We have not even kept up with the league. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-look-inside-the-2006-open-day-payrolls/ http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594

I would like to add that the Twins could take on salary via trade as well. I think we could have added a DH that would have helped our lineup (in addition to SS). I could care less that we have Parmalee and Colabello. Or we could have signed a corner OF and pushed Willlingham to DH and improved on both sides of the ball.