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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    That is definitely tough to predict. I think the Twins will be cautious, given that he has basically never focused solely on baseball. Either way, I think this was a good pick by the Twins, your system can't ever have enough high-end starting pitching prospects and this is where I would rate him as far as our prospects go. If we add another this draft and only one turns out to be an ace, I will take it over low end position players who will be more immediate gratification.
  2. tobi0040
    I think Phil Hughes will help this team win games. If you take his career line of 4.54 ERA and 7.6 K/9 at face value, that is certainly is an improvement over the 5.25 ERA our starters put up last year. If you remove his numbers at the new yankee stadium, you are left with a career 4.26 ERA. He debuted at 20 and is only 27. I think was a very good buy low situation. The ballpark should go from a head-wind to a tail wind as he is a fly ball pitcher and tougher on righties.
  3. tobi0040
    Best to TR
  4. tobi0040
    Like I said before, I am putting stock in a scouting report here and it is early. But I read 80 speed (57 SB as a freshman). Arm for 3B but footwork for SS, will likely stick there. Profiles as a 12 HR a year guy, enough extra base hits. .336/.432/.459 as a freshman .393/.476/.613 as a sophomore If these reports are accurate, he will likely challenge Rodon or be a clear #2 pick. I would more than welcome a slip to #5. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/25/5022056/2014-mlb-draft-profile-trea-turner-ss-n-c-state
  5. tobi0040
    That looks like a $35-40M lineup, at least for a little while. Makes you wonder what kind of a rotation we can put together with Nolasco here and potentially Meyer/Kohl/Gibson, etc. under control. Assuming two of those three stick, we could sign two very good pitchers to complete the rotation. Definitely very early, but if Turner's write up is accurate, I think that guy is gone prior to us picking. Very good defensively and will stick at SS, good on the bases, hit for average with some pop.
  6. tobi0040
    I agree completely. We probably would take a more cautous approach with Nolasco all over again, but you can't argue with the strategy. We could have ended up with nothing. I will take something at a higher price over nothing any day. I think Nolasco received a premuim for durability and/or Garza less due to injury concerns. Nolasco has pitched 390 innings the last two years and Garza pitched only 258, concerns over his elbow could not have helped. I think it is fair to say most people who criticize the Nolasco and Hughes signings and/or Terry's approach are the people that are impossible to please.
  7. tobi0040
    That is a fair point. If you have an OF of Buxton and Hicks you can probably live with Arcia in the OF, otherwise a DH.
  8. tobi0040
    I am much higher on Arcia. They are both the same age and what Arcia has done the last two years is quite impressive: 2012 - .928 OPS at A+/AA 2013 - .1020 OPS at AAA/ .734 OPS MLB. Only M and M had a higher OPS with regular at bats on the Twins.
  9. tobi0040
    I never said that he would not provide value to this team as a corner OF. A LF with 40-50 extra base hits under control would be valuable. The point is if he is an average LF here versus an above average CF somewhere else (a position always in short supply), his value to us maybe higher by trading him for a good SP, SS, or some other position in need.
  10. tobi0040
    I think Rosario will ultimately be traded because I think he will have more value in another organization. He provides the most value at 2B, then CF, then a corner OF spot. It seems the consensus is he is unlikely to stick at 2B for defensive reasons. His bat profiles as above average at CF, but it is very unlikely he beats out Buxton. And .280-.290, 10-14 HR, and 25-30 2B is at best an average corner outfielder offensively (although above average defensively). I agree with his prospect ranking here at #5 regardless.
  11. tobi0040
    I believe mlb has two classifications, performance enhanching and drug of abuse. From there they don't go into detail. this was a drug of abuse (recreational)
  12. tobi0040
    I was off a little on the Appy average age, but you had Sano at 18, Rosario at 19, Thorpe will be 18, and Deolis Guerra was actually in low A as a 17 year old. Either way, I was not trying to write off Dozier. I think he can be an above average 2B, I am just not ready to pencil him as a guy that will average a .750 OPS and approach .800 in some years, which makes him a potential all-star. That seems to be the consensus on the site. I am not ready to just forget his 540 at bats in 2012 as well as April and May of 2013. I initially responded to the notion that Polanco's path may not be too difficult. I don't see Rosario sticking at 2B and if Dozier is just an average 2B and is starting to get expensive, I could see Dozier being traded to another team because we would have Polanco who is cheaper.
  13. tobi0040
    I hope you are right about dozier. But his ops in the minors was .779 and he was one of the oldest at every level. His ops in the big leagues is .680. And if he was over .800 this year he would have been 5th among 2b and potentially an all star. Seems rosy.
  14. tobi0040
    I would guess his numbers will bounce around a bit from year to year and month to month, with a floor/ceiling in this range: Average - .225-.260 HR/Year - 9-15 OBP - .290-.315 OPS - .640-740 I think this equates to about an average 2B. Circling back, in two years when Polanco is ready and Dozier is making $4M and running out of control I could see trading him and making room for the cheaper player. I can't pencil him in as the 2B for the next 10 years until he is more consistent from year to year and month to month.
  15. tobi0040
    Let's take a step back. It seems like you are casually tossing aside a lot of data. Rookie League - he was a 22 year old, four year college guy who posted an OPS of .837. That is not impressive in the least bit. You have some 16 and 17 year olds in this league, most are 19-20 or under. 2010 - a .700 OPS is not anywhere near impressive for a 23 year old in low and high a. He is four years ahead of Polanco, who had an OPS of .813. 2011 - His numbers were excellent, but in A+/AA as a 24 year old. you have to discount it a bit. 2012 - Awful 2013 - .609 OPS in April, .513 OPS in May, .678 in September. June-August he was very good. It seems like he is 50/50 at any given time. We had a lack of successes last year and as a result, we are clinging to the year Dozier had without looking at how streaky he has been and how over the last 2 years, the guy has been bad in 8 of the 12 months and good in 3 (so so in 9/2013).
  16. tobi0040
    When you look at Dozier's history, you see he is streaky. So the risk is looking at 300 at bats in one year and throwing out the history. So I would advise a dash of caution on Dozier being a new player. 2009 – .837 OPS as a 22 year old in rookie league. 2010 - .700 OPS as a 23 year old at A/A+ 2011 - .890 OPS as a 24 year old at A+/AA 2012 - .623 OPS as a 25 year old at AAA, .603 OPS as a 25 year old in MLB 2013 - .726 OPS as a 26 year old in MLB I hope he is a new player, but I would not be surprised if he continue to be up and down.
  17. tobi0040
    the other thing that would be nice to see is analysis around how many runs a year you are losing with a weaker armed SS that can hit, versus a guy like Florimon. It seems like it is a hard and fast "this guy does not have the arm for SS", but we are then OK with Florimon hitting .220. If you assume Polanco to be a: .280 hitter with a .740 OPS, 45 extra base hits a year, with 50-60 BB. Polanco and Florimon field at the same clip, but Polanco fails to throw out 15 guys that Florimon would throw out..... You would think you could model this out and make a strong case that on balance, Polanco would be a better SS. Over 600 at bats, you are getting 36 more hits, 20-25 more extra base hits, and you are on base another 45-50 times.
  18. tobi0040
    I am looking at 900 at bats over 2 years, you are effectively cherry picking 297 at bats from June to August (His .678 OPS in 107 September at bats does not fit your thesis of a different Dozier). Look at Trevor Plouffe, he has gone on better streaks than Dozier for longer periods of time. In May and June of 2013 he had an OPS of .842 abd .879. His OPS in the entire first half of 2012 was .871. If you buy June on as the new normal for Dozier, his OPS was .786. Definitely a very good 2B. I am not ready to throw out the other 500 at bats and his minor league career. Outside of a good 2011 at A+ and AA, he was not impressive in 2010 or 2012
  19. tobi0040
    I don't think his path is that difficult as a 2B. From what I understand, the Twins are not very high on Rosario sticking at 2B. Dozier seems to be over-rated by the Twins community. 18 HR and 66 RBI is good, but we are talking about a career .240 hitter with an OBP under .300, .682 OPS. These are not anywhere near all-star numbers. In the context of Polanco, if he pushes for an MLB role in two years and Dozier is sticking, Terry could flip Dozier and replace him with Polanco making $500K.
  20. tobi0040
    Here are his numbers in the offseason. Like you point out, safe to say much better competition than the rookie league he was in least year and he just turned 18 in November. 7 starts, 36.2 IP, 3-2, 2.45 ER, 30 K, 10 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 1 HR allowed, .241 Average.
  21. tobi0040
    Until we feel he has a future in the bullpen and we are convinced he has no future as a starter, keep giving him the ball every fifth day. 180-200 IP is much more valuable than 60-70 IP. Some guys just seem to be pen guys, like Perkins. But this kid hasn't failed yet and could still turn out to be a very good pitcher.
  22. tobi0040
    I agree. If you dig into his starts last year in more detail, he becomes much more intriguing. He had two terrible starts (8 ER), which the article mentioned. If you throw out those two appearances, here is what you were left with: 25 starts, 145 IP, 9-7, 3.72 ERA, 155 K, 1.31 WHIP. 3.66 BB / 9. Here is his distribution of ER by start, throwing out the 2 8 ER appearances: 0 - 4 starts 1 - 3 starts 2 - 7 starts 3 - 3 starts 4 - 6 starts 5 - 2 starts It seems to me his ERA and BB numbers are skewed an awful lot by two bad outings. This kid gave his team a chance to win in almost every start last year.
  23. tobi0040
    I agree completely. This thread has become very nit-picky about what should and should not be deleted. If you take a step back, I can see why 20 people out of a 100 would be offended by the comment. Those are probably the people who complained. These guys put up and maintain this site and we all benefit from it. You can find no better alternative news and analysis for all things Twins. As far as I can tell, the creators and contributors to this site are not multi-millionairs, this is rather a passion for them. They should have a little leeway even if you disagree.
  24. tobi0040
    I wonder how he is regarded at SS, because his bat would be an upgrade over Florimon. If not, hard to see how he is not an upgrade over Mastro/Escobar.
  25. tobi0040
    It is not a surprise to me that people within the clubhouse would say he is a good guy. In the clubhouse he seemed well respected and consistently moved around in the field when his team needed him to. From 2B, 3B, LF, RH, then to 1B. That is not a prima-donna type. All I ever heard about Cuddy was how involved he was in the community too. I believe he won a Twins charity award for all the work he and his wife did and he was on the Twins community fund board of directors.
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