tobi0040

Most under-rated? Vlad Guerrero would be my pick.

Unfortunately, I wanted Appel as well. Was generally upset by the pick.

Based on that prediction, I looked at his 3B count from last year. He had 18. Pretty crazy that he had more 3B than HR (12). Possible certainly. He should hit that mark in 2B and SB every year.

I don't know that Biggio has ever been linked to steriods. He is a guy that should have made it by now though, but I think he was hurt most by the packed ballot. He missed by two votes last year, one weirdo voted only for Jack Morris. Multiple voters said that the 10 vote rule left guys off. So this is really a personality/voting issue than anything else. The numbers are there: 3,060 hits, 291 HR, .796 OPS, 414 SB, 668 2B. By any measure one of the best hitting 2B of all time.

If we can overpay these guys in their first few years and get them for 7-8 years for $50-60M, we should try and do it. Buxton I hear is very frugal and humble.

No prospect is a sure thing, but I don't see a situation where Buxton is not an 8-10 year MLB player. Top prospects from a few years back, like Marte the 3B for the Red Sox/Indians totally flopped and was out of baseball. Buxton's speed and arm will not dissapear barring some freak injuries. So you should get plus range/arm defensively out of him and the ability to steal 40 SB. That should be a given and if for some reason he hits .260-.270 with no power he should still be our starting CF. I don't think that is a likely situation, but the intriguing thing about Buxton and Sano maybe that they are so talented their floor would still be an average to valuabling MLB player.

I think it comes down to his love for baseball and his drive to get better. By all accounts, Sano is a hard worker, both offensively and defensively who wants to be great. Delmon Young had all the talent in the world but to me he didn't like playing baseball, never worked on defense, or worked on his conditioning. I don't see the parrallel to Sano in that sense.

Good point, he made $1.25M in his first year in Boston. I think he may have signed to a minor league deal initially.

Yeah I think Nishioka will probably keep us a little gun shy on the international players. Guys like Sano are a different story because the relative investment is nothing. MLB does need to include these guys in the draft. Maybe it was Keith Law who made the point of how crazy this is, the White Sox gave Abreau $68M and he would likely have been drafted behind Appel, Gray, and Bryant for sure. Those guys have essentially capped bonuses and salaries.

I agree to the general theory here of an all hands on deck approach at SS. I think you have to be a little hesitant as it sounds like scouts are saying 60-60 bat-power and 60-60 arm-range, based on very little tape. Assuming this guy gets paid like Cespedes or Puig or anything near it, you have to be a little cautious given the lack of information. If he works out and you see it first hand that is another thing.

I know this is unfair to an extent because many players used and baseball did not test for a long time. I am also aware this will probably rub some people the wrong way. But I do have some doubts about Ortiz's numbers in Boston (early on). The following are facts: -He could not stay healthy and was not a great DH here. Career high 20 HR and .839 OPS. -He then goes to Boston and hits 173 HR in 4 years. -He is best friends with Manny Ramirez, who used. -He was reported to have failed a test in 2003, by every major outlet. I can't say for sure, but I don't think we can 100% pin this on the Twins staff with these facts out there.

SS is the most important position. I give you that, but Molitors versatility added value as well. Here are the games by position: 3B - 791 2B - 400 1B - 197 SS - 57 LF/RF - 50 CF - 43 Pretty insane that he played every position but pitcher and catcher.

I too believe Jeter is both a first ballot HOF and overrated. It sounds odd, but allow me to explain. A guy that hits .312, 3,200 hits, .820 OPS as a SS, and has five rings is a first ballot HOF. But the fact that he played in NY and alongside up to 10 guys that may end up in the hall of fame (which helped his ring count), he will get more credit at the end of the day. I am guessing he gets in with over 95% of the votes on his first try (which Bark's lounge estimated). Paul Molitor has almost identical stats accross the board, average, hits, HR, games, OPS, etc. Molitor has an additional 156 SB. Molitor achieved only 85% of the vote on his first ballot. I think Jeter will be viewed favorably or in the same category as Wagner and Banks and he was not on their level. If Tulo plays another 10 seasons, he will have much better stats on a per season basis.

The intriguing thing might be Sano's floor. If you assume he is a DH his whole career and hits .250, 35-40 HR, 90-100 BB, 100 RBI, well his floor is a rich man's Adam Dunn. Dunn will likely finish his career with over 500 HR, .365 OBP, .860 OPS. His ceiling is very high obvioulsy. I don't ever see him hitting .320 or .330 like Miguel Cabrera, but that is a comp with one of the best hitters of all time. Obviously Sano's value hinges a great deal on his ability to stick at 3B. Even if he sticks at 3B for the next 6-7 years. It would be pretty amazing to have a 3B that can hit .260, 35-40 HR, and take 100 BB a year.

That is hilarious

I think it comes down to his health. If he is healthy, he has a good shot. The bar in my eyes is a AA/AAA SS in Florimon. Bartlett has put together several seasons that I personally think Florimon is not capable of: 2006 - .760 OPS 2007 - .699 OPS 2009 - .875 OPS 2010 - .675 OPS It is tough to look at Bartlett's 2012 numbers as he only had 98 PA. But even his bad 2011 with a .615 OPS was better than Florimon's career OPS of .603.

Fast forward 10 years, I don't think you will have 9 players ahead of Sano. But overall he is pretty high on Meyer and Stewart.

I think 2013 was a bit of an abberation as well. You just get the feeling that he is too talented to be as bad as he was last year. It seems like he has the talent to at least be average in most offensive categories, with plus range/arm. .270-.280 Average 20-25 SB .330-.340 OBP 15 HR 25 2B

Hicks should get a ton of reps this year at AAA and MLB to see what he can do. There came a point last year where everything got in his head. The way I see it, if he has good speed and a great arm. If he can be a .260 BA/.330 OBP guy with those assets he is a starting CF in this league and would at a minimum could be traded. If he is a .280/.350 guy with 20-30 SB, and a great arm and range he could probably be worth a shot in LF or RF.

As a point of reference, 185 IP would have been 54th last year, 200 IP would have been 34th (of 150 starters). Adam Wainwright led the league with 241 in the regular season., Kershaw was at 236. Opinions may vary here, but I would not want my $30M arm pitching that many innings unless they are so good that their total pitchers are in line with the 200-220 IP guys.

Very interesting. Maybe adjust a little for the fact that he has never been a full time pitcher, but good work.

My first look at this thread, a lot to respond to. -First, I would expect a 6-7 win improvement, not hope. Expect. It seems like a reasonable expectation that Nolasco, Hughes, and Meyer will pitch 450 innings with a 4.25 ERA. That is a 50 run improvement over our starting ERA from last year, so that should get you close to 6-7 wins. If those three have a slightly higher ERA, you have a chance that Josh will bounce back, Hicks, Gibson, or Pelfrey outperforms his 5.19 ERA from last year. Any one of those should help close the gap to 6-7 wins. -Anyone who expects the playoffs in 2014 is just not realistic. I am guessing the number of teams that have put up a 25+ win improvement is very small. The one's that did most likely added to their lineup as well and did not rely on bounce back years (Hicks, Willingham) and young players (Sano). -Simply knowing whether or not a player is for real (Dozier, Hicks, Gibson, etc.) is not a success. You want to see more of these guys turn out than not, in order to chalk it up as a success. -This is clearly a 2015 and beyond operation, so 2014 will be a "success" in my eyes by seeing progress of the key guys (Sano, Buxton, and Meyer), as well as top prospects (Stewart, Polanco, Thorpe, and Rosario) in the minors, Hicks and Dozier sticking,. Correa, Willingham, and Pelfrey playing well and being flipped for a guy in A or AA would be a huge success. -Lastly, not every one of these things will happen. Guys will regress or get hurt. My dissapointment meter would go up the most if Sano, Buxton, or Meyer have a major injury or regress. Then Kohl. Then probably Dozier taking a step back. Then Hicks failing. Then the vets not playing well enough to be traded.

We also can't put too much stock in his rookie league numbers. Berrios had a 1.17 ERA and 49 K in 30 IP in rookie league. Then had a 3.99 ERA with basically a K per inning in low A. His K to BB went from 12.5 to 2.5. Certainly ripping up rookie league is better than not, but he was not the first pitcher to come back to reality in A ball.

That is a good point. He would be up in 3 and guess who would criticize that? Keith Law.