tobi0040

So you want me to judge Drew on 80 games away from Fenway in one year? I would rather view his 930 games with a .764 OPS, 163 basis points above Florimon's. Regarding the point that Drew can't hit lefties, he has a career .681 OPS against lefties, Pedro is at .515. We should be embarrassed to have Pedro Florimon as our starting SS.

Cape Cod was 32 innings.

Nothing in this scouting report tells me he is a #2 starter. Personally, inconsistent release points, command issues, fastball up in the zone, average deception, curve that does not break like it should, etc. reads more like a HS prospect than a college prospect. Fastball: 50/50 Heater has above-average velocity at 91-93, touching 94, but is very true and Eades pitches with it up in the zone a little too often; command is spotty; control is average and deception allows the pitch to miss bats; will have to fool big league hitters with deception in order to succeed by pitching off the fastball. Curveball: 45/50 Breaking ball is his worst pitch right now; doesn't break like it should right now, looking more like a slurve in the 77-80 mph range; will have to find consistent release point and finish in order for the pitch to be big league average. Changeup: 50/55 Easily his most effective weapon right now and in the future; excellent feel for the pitch and good movement in the zone; sits around 79-82 and arm speed gives it great deception; tends to pitch off the changeup, which could make it easier for pro hitters to sit on. Control: 45/55 Delivery makes it more difficult to throw strikes, but because Eades hides the ball so well, he can generate swings and misses or weak contact; arm gets a little stiff after planting front leg, leading to the ball sailing on him; control of fastball has to improve in order to reach ultimate ceiling; changeup can be thrown in any situation for strikes. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1642027-ryan-eades-prospect-profile-for-minnesota-twins-2nd-round-pick#articles/1642027-ryan-eades-prospect-profile-for-minnesota-twins-2nd-round-pick

I did a quick look at the 2004-2006 MLB Drafts. I am using WAR because it is a quick way to see who made it up to here and have done something. Each draft had 31 picks. 2004 had 6, 2005 had 4, and 2006 had 5 guys with a career WAR over 4 (16% of the total picks). Here is a list of the studs, out of 93 picks: Gollardo, Headley, Pence, Pedrioa, Yunel Escobar, and Cahill. So your odds of getting hosed on this deal, given a small sample size is 6.4%.

Good call, I was going off last years revenue and getting to $112M. It is really a bit of a joke that we are at $82M and falling after next year (Correa and Josh).

I see 71.5. I would guess over by a win or two, but too close to put anything on it. Tigers 89.5, Indians 80, KC 79.5, CWS 77, Twins 71.5. http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/mlb/2014-02-16/mlb-season-win-total-division-odds-dodgers-yankees-angels-pirates-phillies

We can split hairs here, but Melotakis and Chargois are relievers. Eades is a potential #4 or #5 starter IF he makes it. Then 1/3 of the 30 picks made the big leagues. 2 of which are starting pitchers and never really amounted to much. Half would have been relievers. I think the odds are Goodrum is not the Twins SS for an extended period of time. He has to fight guys currently in the system, some view him as a 2B where he is way back on the depth chart. And we could draft one of two SS in the next draft at #5. I would not hand out 2nd picks every year, but when you have no MLB talent on the depth chart and you aren't mortgaging the team, have the money, etc. I wouldn't dwell on a 2nd rounder. Personally, I don't buy Dwar as much as Owar. For example, they have Drew's offense at 2.5 WAR over Florimon. Florimon's defense at 1.5 WAR over Drew. Seems to me if you give them both 600 at bats, you have 30 more hits for Drew, about 2/3 of which are extra base hits. More RBI, HR, Runs scored, and Walks. I don't see a few extra balls that don't get through the infield or an additional error or two as negating half of that. It seems to be defensive stats overstate the impact on games. The pitch framing numbers are certainly out of whack.

The point is, even if he trends backward from here but starts at a .777 OPS, he has a long way to go to sniff Florimon's .610 OPS. Agree with Jokin 100%

Drew had a .777 OPS last year, which is close to his career .764. He was only in Boston for a short time. He had a wide 200 bps gap in OPS between home and road last year, but a pretty wide 75 basis point gap for his career (home .803 road .725). But even cherry picked bad years for Drew are superior to Florimon by a wide margin. I am suprised by how many people are okay with Florimon as our SS and an $82M payroll, given that we were 13th in the AL in runs last year and haven't spent a dime.

I view it is either I get to watch a MLB short stop and see my favorite team win 3 more games, or the Pohlad's make another $9M this year. Payroll should be $112M at 52% of revenue and it is at $82M. We have tons of cheap rookies on the way (CF, LF, 3B, 2b, SP x 2) and a 2 year deal would not hamper future plans.

I would give him a 2 year deal and a team option for a third. Probably 2/18. I would not panic about a mystery team as that typically means you are bidding against yourself. Drew would be 3 win upgrade in each of the next two years. He is not an all star, but he is going to give you another 30 hits, 20 extra base hits, more RBI, more runs, and get on base more than Pedro. We have the money and we are not mortgaging our future. As far as the second round pick goes, since 1990 we have had 30 picks in the second round. I don't see a single guy that has made an all star team. Jacque was a solid player for a period of time. Baker was the only other guy that was at one point both productive and promising as a player. Obviously you have other guys that have been contributors like Swarzak and Crain. Exactly three of these players have had a career WAR above 5. 23 never really made it (more than 100 AB's). http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg

I put them about there too. I think the rotation is worth 6-7 more wins. The other thing is the division has probably regressed a bit too. Cleveland was a lucky 90 win team and they lose Jimenez's 3.30 ERA. Masterson may not repeat the 3.45 ERA he had. Verlander may not be ready for the opener, Sanchez and Scherzer are not likely to be any better, and they lose this year on the Prince for Kinsler trade (not in 3+ years though). The White Sox didn't do much other than add the Cuban guy, who is a question mark as far as I am concerned. KC swaps Vargas for Santana. Add Infante.

I would much rather have a SS or power SP over another toolsy OF. Buxton may be in CF for the next 10-15 years. Arcia may have a corner spot, so might Hicks. Corner OF spots are relatively easy to fill on the free agent market as well. Pure BPA strategies, in my opinion need to be adjusted a little if other needs can or can't be filled in free agency. Same with football. The Vikings have CB and QB needs, good QB's almost never hit free agency and you need a QB to win (like you need SP in baseball). The good news is this draft appears to be deep at SP and SS, so hopefully BPA and needs will intersect.

My guess is Diamond is the 5th starter, Worley is in the pen, and Deduno magically needs some rehab (DL). Boy one additional signing like Drew or Cruz could make the lineup bearable. I know Sano is up soon and that will be exciting. But we have some big holes at SS, C, 3B for awhile, and a question mark in CF.

any and all Major League references are appreciated.

That is a good call. They have #2, #36, #38, and #42. They could probably go above slot a few times if they save $1-$2M at #2. That would be great. The Royals snagged Mannea at about 35 last year and he was a top 3 guy 6-8 weeks out until he had a hip injury, velo drop as a result. Maybe that will be the added incentive for them to do the same thing.

I think we would all take Buxton in a re-draft scenario right now. But I do think it is still early to say we for sure got the best player and those of us that wanted Appel were "wrong". If Appel turns out to be an ace for 10 years, I think I would take that over Buxton, even if Buxton is a 30-30 guy in CF. I say that because we are always going to struggle to pay top tier free agent pichers to come here and you need pitching to win. Look at some of the teams Texas had had in the past, 5+ all star caliber guys in their lineup and they could not sniff .500 with a poor pitching staff.

Diamond is 27, a lefty, and had a 3.54 ERA over 173 IP just a year ago. I think we could find a taker but we are not getting much back given last year.

The Trout comps are really exciting, but they make me squirm at the same time. Trout went 30-50 and 30-30 at 20 and 21. OPS of .963 and .988. Buxton has only 17 HR in almost 800 PA's. Looks to be a great player but the comp with one of the best seasons ever by a player that age is probably not realistic and setting is up for dissapointment.

I would flip Deduno and Diamond but agree with the rest. I do think they all get picked up though. Every one of the pitchers has had at least one good year in the last 2-3.

Those would be my five, but i think Gibson starts in AAA given the option issue with Deduno, Diamond, and Worley (I think TR wants some SP depth). I would guess every one of these three will get claimed on waivers, so i think one ends up our 5th starter right away and one in the bullpen. One is cut or traded (not that we get much back). My gut would say Deduno and Diamond stay.

i I think we could have signed Appel. I think the issue is he went 8th, so he had a reason to go back to school. We were at 2. I wanted Appel, then a coin toss for zimmer and gausman I find it interesting that it was viewed as a weak draft. Lot of guys look promising right now. Buxton, appel, correa, zunnino, gausman, etc.

I am guessing CMathewson meant top 5 SS. I put him behind Wagner and Banks, a coin flip with Ripken. If Tulo and Han-Ram play another 8-10 years they won't have 3k hits but will have better numbers on a per season basis, by far.

Vlad Guerrero should be a HOF guy. His average 162 games season (he played 15 years): .318 average, 34 HR, 113 RBI, 36 2B, 14 SB, .931 OPS. Absolute cannon in RF. He had seven seasons with 10+ outfield assists. I think Walker will be forever dinged because of Coors Field. His numbers did jump a ton after he went from MON to COL. I think this article will surprise some people. http://crusherdestroyer.hubpages.com/hub/Ten-Reasons-Why-Vladimir-Guerrero-Should-Be-A-Hall-Of-Famer

2015-2019 could actually be a period where we are in playoff contention and have a relative low payroll. 2020 and beyond, look out. Mauer will likely be gone or be cheaper, but we could have a 2006-2007, only I would argue potentially more talent (Buxton, Sano, Meyer, our 5th pick next year, versus Santana, Torii, Cuddy, etc.)