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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    His career ERA on the road plus the old yankee stadium is 4.24. I would argue a 27 year old with a career 4.24 ERA typically gets more than 3/24. Plus, he has the former top prospect label. His 3/24 deal looks pretty similar to what a 30 year old with a 4.54 ERA would get (his career ERA). So when you factor in we get age, a better park, and a 4.24 ERA guy I think this is going to be good get for us.
  2. tobi0040
  3. tobi0040
    I think some of the predictive stats penalize a pitcher like Deduno, who has good movement. They may not get a ton of K's, but players don't square them up. Allow me to provide one, extreme example: Mariano Rivera towards the end of his career. Notice the huge gap between ERA and xFIP. [TABLE=width: 192] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent] [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent]ERA[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent]xFIP[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent]K/9[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2010[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]1.80[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]3.52[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]6.75[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2011[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]1.91[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2.64[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]8.8[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2012[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2.16[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]3.48[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]8.64[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2.11[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]3.09[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right]7.59[/TD] [/TABLE] Career 2.20 ERA and xFIP of 3.00.
  4. tobi0040
    This was my favorite signing as well. Scott Feldman is 30, has a 4.62 ERA, signed for 3/30. Jason Vargas is 31, has a 4.30 ERA, signed for 4/32. To me your 4-5th free agent starters are making about what Hughes is. But he has #2 or easily #3 upside in my eyes. Career 4.54 ERA. His split between the new Yankee stadium and everwhere else: New Yankee stadium (home 2009 and on) - 350 IP, 4.91 ERA. Everwhere else - 430 IP, 4.24 ERA. I am guessing his struggles at the new Yankee stadium hurt him on the road to an extent (confidence). So I think we could see an improvement on the 4.24 ERA. Not to mention Target Field should be a great place for him (hard to hit HR's and he is tough on righties).
  5. tobi0040
    Combine 2011 and 2013 and he had a total WAR of 1.8. Carlos Gomez, by the same calculation had over 8 WAR last year. I am guesing WAR doesn't factor in runners advancing on his noodle arm. But the general point I was making is that he was at least 3rd on the future depth chart at CF behind Buxton and Hicks. He has a career OPS .654, a total of 45 extra base hits in 1,300+ at bats. That and his arm make him a very poor corner OF option.
  6. tobi0040
    It is certainly fun to talk about the draft and I have made several posts on this thread. But this report puts it into perspective to an extent. This is a few Dodger players actual scouting report. Click on "report link". Highlights - Clayton Kershaw gets a comp to Dave Righetti. Says his best future off speed pitch is his slider. Said he "fits nicely in the first round" and projects him as a #2 starter. Matt Kemp got a 40 on future ability to steal bases, and future power as a 55. http://dodgersdigest.com/category/clayton-kershaw/
  7. tobi0040
    The logic of we need a lefty is silly. The decision should come down to, during the innings allocated to Diamond or Deduno, who will pitch better? That answer is clear.
  8. tobi0040
    I would go a step farther than the posts on here. His 4.44 ERA over 79 IP in 2012 was also above replacement player. I believe replacement player is definted as a AA replacement. I have a hard time believing the average AA replacement can come up here and average a quality start. True, his K rate is average at best. But 18 HR in 193 IP (.83/9) suggests hitters have a tough time squaring him up due to the movement of his pitches. That may be why everyone thinks he is ripe for regression due to a low opposing BABIP.
  9. tobi0040
  10. tobi0040
    I wrote a similar blog awhile back. My take is in the short term Mauer would probably be better than Sano, Arcia, and Willingham at their respective positions. Long term if Sano sticks at 3B we could put Mauer in LF. Arcia in RF is he sticks or DH/1B if he doesn't. Flip Hicks for a pitcher or SS. And sign a good DH/1B in the mold of Cruz. I am hoping that we have Mauer at 1B because we want Sano and Arcia to stay where they are and we need time to evaluate. And we have Willingham in LF because we want to maximize his trade value. Long term, I agree Mauer's athleticism and arm would be a waste at 1B.
  11. tobi0040
    Revere is a fringe CF on an OK team. We absolutely could not have his bat and arm in a corner, which is what would have happened. Revere for May straight up is a win in my book.
  12. tobi0040
    I can't quite figure it out either. He had 8+ K/9 with Philadelphia in over 270 IP. ERA of 3.01 and 4.20. What we have seen is a completely different pitcher. K/9 in the 4 range and what is strange is his BB/9 rate has actually been better here than in Philly. What is certain is he can't be on the 25 man roster. I agree with Shane, try and pass him through waivers right now. If he is gone best of luck to him.
  13. tobi0040
    I would put Kepler ahead of Walker. He is a year or two younger and Walker is very raw. 27 HR with a .316 OBP last year. Very low walk rate.
  14. tobi0040
    I agre on Gonslaves. If he was a first round pick last year, sans shenanagins he would be top 15. I also think Thorpe jumps ahead of Berrios in a year.
  15. tobi0040
    Respectfully, he is not going to say "we are working on a deal with Tampa Bay right now and it will hopefully be finalized by Thursday". I don't think his start moving now had anything to do with a deal. But I think it is almost a lock he is moved before July. When it depends on when TR thinks he has the best offer. Could be now or it could be in April, July, or somewhere in between.
  16. tobi0040
    LOL. The best tribune proposals usually involved Nick Punto and a B level prospect for a guy like Albert Pujols, circa 2008.
  17. tobi0040
    An equivalent trade would have been either Buxton or Sano, and Alex Meyer (#3 prospect plus #35). If the Twins did that trade for a guy that may only play for us for two years, I would be irate. I would not have liked that deal even with an extension. But I could at least understand it. If he refuses to sign an extension with the Royals, they may end up dumping him with a year or 3 months left and they won't get near the return that gave up.
  18. tobi0040
    What is BYTO? I have heard it referenced a few times.
  19. tobi0040
    BA with RISP can be predictive in the short term to see if a team is over or under performing. For example, you might get a team after 50 games that is in first place, but their BA with RISP is like .370 and overall BA is .290. Well it appears they have just been very timely with their hits and that will likely not continue. In the long term, it is primarily a longevity stat for players.
  20. tobi0040
    These are Star Trib type proposals. But they are serious on the Tribune. I wonder if they will get the same haul for Price as they did for Shields. Price is better but that was a great haul. Prospects #3 and 35 overall, plus some throw ins. Why KC did that deal without an extension is beyone me.
  21. tobi0040
    I don't see a scenario where Parmelee is in the OF, or on this team beyond this year. The only options for him are RF, LF, DH, or 1B. The in-house options for LF/RF are Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, and probably Plouffe. Wild cards are Sano or Mauer. And this is a relatively easy place to find a bat in free agency. I don't think he has the batting average or power to justify one of these positions. He is a career .246 hitter in 600+ at bats, with only 17 HR. 3 to 1 K/BB ratio. Compare him with what Rosario may be able to put up in a corner. The offense should be similar or even favor Rosario and defensively Rosario would be the equivalent of another CF out there, i.e. much better than Parmelee. I think Arcia is a DH long term, but he will provide enough offense that the Twins will give him a shot to improve and stick in the OF Hopefully we are in a place 12 months from now where the fringe AAA guys are off the team or relegated to the 4th OF/INF utility role.
  22. tobi0040
    It was a different but similar thread regarding the injury to Medlen and Beachey . But Jarrod Parker needs TJ (his second). Lot of potential partners out there.
  23. tobi0040
    Since the emergence of Buxton last year, I have thought Hicks gets moved as well. If he figures it out he could be a top 10-15 CF in the league, but not in a corner. He would still have some value. But when a guy could provide more value to a team with a hole in CF a trade opportunity exists. With glaring needs at SP and SS, something could be worked out that could benefit both parties.
  24. tobi0040
    Florimon has had 548 at bats at the MLB level. He has hit .219, .278 OBP, .601 OPS. 26 extra base hits. That is a clear liability to me. It doesn't get much worse than that.
  25. tobi0040
    I agree with your sentiment about the defensive metrics. Simmons won over 5 games defensively if you look at defensive WAR. Carlos Gomez 4+ games helped him become the second most valuable player in the league last year according to total WAR. I have a hard time believing a player like that could be more valuable than Kershaw for example. Regarding Florimon and the Twins view. I guess I don't see why we stand for a great defensive SS that is a complete liability at the plate when we would not stand for a below average SS that hits very well. It seem slike you could model out the difference between a guy like Florimon and compare him with a guy that hits much better, but may get a few more errors. May let a few more balls through, etc. http://espn.go.com/mlb/war/leaders
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