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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    It is amazing how often this line of thinking comes up, when as you point out it has no validity at all. I think we gave the guy 23M a year so a batting average of .800 is what some expect with runners on.
  2. tobi0040
    I can't find the split between fielding and throwing errors. But if it is 50/50, he has 20 errors on 378 assists. I don't know what a typical ratio is. His defensive WAR has improved every year. -2.1, to -.8, to +.2 from 2011 to 2013.
  3. tobi0040
    Seems a bit premature here. 2 games in. The guy has 41 career errors in 260 games, mostly at 3B. Those are fielding and throwing errors too.
  4. tobi0040
    That is good to hear. He had that league figured out last year
  5. tobi0040
    While true that every pitchers ERA would improve, not every pitcher had 16 ER in 2 starts. Compared with the year prior, he had a much bigger spread after removing his two worse starts. This type of analysis can be useful. So you lose 2 of his 28 starts for sure, but then get a 3.75 ERA in the other 26. That is a pretty good pitcher. His control issues look much better as well, as those two starts had a ton of BB's. His BB per 9, which everyone points to went from 3.5 to just a hair over 3 if you remove those two starts.
  6. tobi0040
    Frankly, I am happier about Hicks having 4 hits and a BB in the first 2 games than I am upset about losing. His 3rd hit came on April 21st last year. It is more important for me that he gets off to a good start and gets his confidence up then we start 2-0 or 1-1. Perkins is going to close that game 9 times out of 10. In the grand scheme of things, how the young guys do is more important. Arcia had a .735 OPS last year, he will figure it.
  7. tobi0040
    Based on my memory of the projection threads, about 90% of people predicted they were 3-5 games better than last year. More people predicted same or worse than last year than predicted a .500 team. I don't consider these bullish, that is like a 71 win team.
  8. tobi0040
    Looks liike the order at AAA is Diamond, Meyer, May, Johnson, and Darnell. The top four at CR are Slegars, Randy Rosario, Eades, and Stewart, then TBD. Dean is the opening day starter for NB, then a bunch of TBD. All TBD at Fort Myers.
  9. tobi0040
    The numbers on the college websites are below. They look pretty good, Hoffman's ERA is not spectacular though. Rodon 47 IP, 2.09 ERA, .213 BA against. 55K Beede 40 IP, 2.47 ERA, .176 BA against, 46K. Hoffman 45 IP, 3.86 ERA, .213 BA, 45K.
  10. tobi0040
    One of the spring training posts, maybe Thrylos went down there and he said he is 6'0 and Berrios looked much taller than him. Something like that.
  11. tobi0040
    His numbers last year were really dinged by two lousy starts (8 ER in each). I calculated his numbers sans those two starts, in the other 26 starts he had a 3.75 ERA with over a K per inning. He had 3-4 starts with no runs allowed. Something like 13 with 0, 1, or 2 ER. If you back out his worst two starts from 2012, his ERA drops 4.25 or so. Many point to the fact that he repeated AA and only went from 4.80 to 4.55 or something like that. In 90% of his starts, he went from 4.25 to 3.75, which is quite an improvement.
  12. tobi0040
    I think generally, the Twins are clearing their roster of guys that aren't on the 2015 team. Meyer will be up in June, but I think that happens regardless of who made the team in April. I think Buxton will get his feet wet in September. He is starting in High A and may miss a few games to start. So I don't know that he goes from high A to the big leagues any sooner than a September call up.
  13. tobi0040
    I heard rumblings that Berrios may have grown, is that the 6'1 versus 6'0 or has he grown taller than that?
  14. tobi0040
    I put KC at about 100%. I was very confident early on, but it seems like pitchers are dropping left and right and the season is young. I think Deduno is an asset, controllable. Can make spot starts and be in the pen. I think we keep him. I don't see Plouffe being moved either. He is cheap and can play 3B, 1B, LF, and RF and pounds lefties. I hope you are wrong about Josh and Kubel, I hope they both play well enough to warrant a prospect. Good blog.
  15. tobi0040
    Yeah, I don't think we will have a league average OPS. No matter how you slice it, this will be a below average offense.
  16. tobi0040
    You can't bat Pinto. Because then IF Suzuki gets hurt, then Mauer has to play catcher for like 1 or 2 innings (sarcasm). I am not overly worried about losing two players via one switch. If the worst case is you tie the game up and have one or no options in extra innings, well you are still playing in extra innings when you otherwise would not have been. With Florimon out of the game, you are probably not needing many more pinch hit at bats anyway. On a side note, I think we are going to have a lot of these second guessing scenarios, because we have a few terrible hitters in our lineup and a coach that doesn't manage the lineup/roster moves very well and has irrational worries.
  17. tobi0040
    The only one that jumped out at me was Colabello, an OPS of .815 seems a bit high. I would love to see it though. 27 Jacks for Arcia seems a bit high. I know he had 14 in 100 games last year, but even that seemed like much higher pace than what he did in the minors. Love Mauers numbers. I think his hands and legs will be much stronger in the second half.
  18. tobi0040
    80 maybe a stretch, but he hit 59 XBH while missing April in 2009. I could see 50 2B and 20 HR. He is going to play more and those foul balls off his hands/arms and knees from the crouch had to worn on him as the seasons progressed.
  19. tobi0040
    Why on earth is Suzuki batting second? Last year his OBP was .290, career .309. This literally makes no sense at all.If Mauer plays under Gardy for 15 years, it would be interesting to see how many more RBI's he would have at the end of his carreer with a guy that gets on base in front of him. Casilla, Suzuki, etc.http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=340331104&teams=minnesota-twins-vs-chicago-white-sox
  20. tobi0040
    I completely agree on 1, 9, 12, and 14. Sans the comment about the medical staff which I think you meant as a joke. I don't see Gardy getting fired mid-season. We don't strike me as a team that would do that save a complete mutiny in the club house. The others can go either way, I certainly would rather see many not happen, like 2, 6 and 8. I think Buxton is up in September. I find myself to be much more optimistic and not panicking over Gibson and Hicks (than most on these boards). 13 seems a bit aggressive.
  21. tobi0040
    So if he would have had average luck last year (.300), he would have hit about .230 (25% more hits than .192). If he would have hit .230 last year instead of .190, it would not have been a constant headline. He would have been OB about .300 with 9 HR. Not good, but not a dreadful first 80 games after skipping AAA.
  22. tobi0040
    I think this is a very brief sample size and given his track record, I am not worried. He is hitting .340 this spring and his walk rate was 7.6% last year.
  23. tobi0040
    They approached Max first and he rejected 6 - 144. Personally, seems like a reasonable offer for him and he is taking on a lot of risk. He has only really been good two years and could get hurt this year. Regarding the contract. Will this look really bad when he is 38, 39? Of course and they have to know that. But what you have is an owner who is a huge sports fan. He owns the Tigers and Red Wings. He is the founder of a company that is making money hand over fist (Little Caesars). He is worth almost $2.7B and he really, really wants to win a championship before he passes away. This team loses money every year and I would not expect the Twins to do that, but I am jealous.
  24. tobi0040
    That is a PR piece and nothing more.
  25. tobi0040
    If you buy that they were willing to spend and Terry did not spend, I am not sure how Bill Smith gets 100% of the blame. Wouldn't TR share some of that blame? I don't think ownership was as willing to spend as they lead on.
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