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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    He has 8 BB in 20 IP, they will cite that until June and bring him up.
  2. tobi0040
    That would be ideal, but the market for him over two years for $11M will be non existent. They say anytime you sign a Boras client you are the sucker. I have to believe we were bidding against ourselves and we were the only two year deal on the table last offseason.
  3. tobi0040
    He must have forgot we have Pelfrey in our rotation. You know, the guy with the 7.32 ERA who has 3 fewer K's all year than Meyer had last night.
  4. tobi0040
    The last time I saw something like this, the Seattle Seahawks really stuck it to the Vikings. We signed away Hutchinson and they got us back, giving Nate Burleson $50M over 7 years!
  5. tobi0040
    Maybe Pelfrey is simply not very good? He had a career 4.60 ERA in the NL. Two years with a good ERA where he was a tad lucky. His stuff is simply not very good.
  6. tobi0040
    I need more. Ask me again on May 10th.
  7. tobi0040
    This is kind of a funny mis-direction. But I don't knock people for questioning a few of the guys that have been successful elsewhere. Gomez, Hardy, etc. The worst recent example was probably Hardy. He came off a year in which he had an OPS of .714, then we signed Nishy. Did we think Nishy was going to match that? We had to know we were giving up upside as Hardy had two good years in Milwaukee.
  8. tobi0040
    Pelfrey was a terrible sign last year as well (allowing a player to rehab on your dime, then make excuses because it was his first year of TJ and he came back too quick). I was however referring to signing Pelfrey this year. The point is, give me Deduno/Drew over Pelfrey/Florimon any day of the week for basically the same price. or Garza over Pelfrey for an extra few million. That applies for years 1 and 2 of Peflreys two years. Then give me Garza in years 3-4 over the next scrub we sign.
  9. tobi0040
    Couple of points. Deduno or Diamond could put up the same numbers as Pelfrey and cost us $500K. Deduno's ERA last year was 1.30 lower than Pelfrey's. Injury concerns? Of course, but if all we need is a bridge to Meyer or May in June anyway, the $12M over two years to Pelfrey could have been spent better. As could the money we paid Livan, Marquis, Kenny Rogers, Ramon Ortiz, etc. You are correct, Garza received a 4 year, $50M deal. But if we have $5-7M in dead money in the 5th rotation spot each year over the next four years, then we are comparing 4/50 with 4/24 or something like that. At the end of the day, the goal is to win games. Not get innings at a terrible ERA. I am simply suggesting a real pitcher, or SS like Drew is not really as costly as their salary if we are smart and avoid the bargain bin signing that never pans out.
  10. tobi0040
    I completely agree. It seems the Twins simply won't put up with below average defense at SS, but they will put up with below average offense. Seems like the offensive side is easy to quantify. You pick it, OPS, runs created, whatever. It would seem easy to quantify with reasonable estimates what an error means, what a ball that Pedro will get to that the other guy won't, etc. will cost you. The two should be weighed together.
  11. tobi0040
    The problem with this is, these guys almost never turn out and for the same amount of money we could have an actual major league short stop this year. In the years of Livan or Marquis, we could have basically paid the same or less on a per start basis and signed an actual good pitcher. We did get 139 IP out of Livan, at a 5.48 ERA. We should be able to get the same or better production out of any random pitcher at AAA or AA. Look at the rag tag bunch we had last year and our staff still had a 5.25 ERA. This offseason, we are paying Bartett and Pelfrey $6.5M or so, Garza cost $12M. I am in favor of getting above average production over below average production for a marginal difference.
  12. tobi0040
    I completely agree. He will never live up to some peoples expectations. Case and point, I asked three times for people criticizing Mauer to quantify what type of season he would have in order to please them, none responded. I am speculating they don't want to put numbers down because then they would actually have to be pleased if he accomplished said numbers. Or their expectations are so out there that they would be embarrassed to type them.
  13. tobi0040
    I agree the Twins are cheap and I can't believe I am saying this. But since MLB contracts are guaranteed, cutting Bartlett versus him retiring is probably $800-$900K in increased salary. I think the minimim for someone with his service time is about $1M. The thing that gets me about the Twins, they seem to go cheap on some players, thinking they are saving money. Each year it seems they have at least $5M in dead money. Livan Hernandez, Pelfrey, Marquis, Ramon Ortiz, etc. We could have saved the Pelfrey and Bartlett money and signed Drew this year. Or avoided Pelfrey and Bartlett and signed a guy like Garza with only $5M more in salary. In the case of Livan, Marquis, and potentially Peflrey this year, we end up cutting the guy and paying him a good chunk of money on a per game basis. We cut Livan on 8/1 and paid him $5M. Jason Marquis made $3M and pitched in 7 games. Would anyone be shocked if we ate a good chunk of the $12M guaranteed to Pelfrey?
  14. tobi0040
    I just double checked, it was 0, 1, or 2 runs in 14 of his starts. He had 4 starts with 3 ER, so he gave up more than 3 ER in 10 of 28. His 171 K in 165 IP is certainly well above average. His 10.6 K per 9 in the minors as a whole is certainly above average as well.
  15. tobi0040
    May was really penalized by two bad starts last year. He gave up 0, 1, 2, or 3 ER in 14 of his 28 starts. If you take out his best two and worst two starts, he had a 4.15 ERA in the other 24 with over a k per inning. It is not lets get him up here right now but it is certainly not below average.
  16. tobi0040
    One of the biggest knocks on Hicks has been missing the cut off, I remember Gomez doing that regularly with us. I am not suggesting Hicks has his range and frankly, for the purposes of this I was just looking at offense anyway. Here is Hicks BABIP in the minors, .367, .303, .359, .346, .308, .346, .314. I get that one could hit balls pitched by minor leaguers harder than major leaguers, but that is a huge gap from what we have seen thus far.
  17. tobi0040
    I will take the BB every time. Now a 2B, 3B, or HR by the next batter will score all the runners Mauer was expected to, and Mauer. Barry Bonds hit a HR in 6.08% of his at bats. Pedro Florimon has hit a 2B, 3B, or HR in 5.67% of his at bats. Pretty sizable gap between those two hitters with almost a coin toss. I will go back to the numbers and reality over some arbitrary you make the money or you are the leader, therefore....
  18. tobi0040
    A ton of similarities here. Both came up at 22, CF, highly touted without a ton of sucess in the minors. Hicks had the one year that was pretty good, but not blowing you away. Here are Gomez numbers in his first three years (1100 ab) 2007 - .232 avg/.592 OPS. 2008 - .258 avg/.656 OPS 2009 - .229 avg/ .624 OPS Hicks (400 ab) 2013 - .192 avg/.597 OPS 2014 - .167 avg/.492 OPS Here is the glaring difference. BABIP. Gomez had .273, .330, and .286. Hicks .241 and .233. This suggests we should give Hicks more time. We don't want him becoming an all star somewhere else.
  19. tobi0040
    Agree, but I am hoping to know the bar Mauer needs to please a few people. So far on this thread, Top Gun criticized him for taking a walk in a run situation. Darin compared him to Doug M and also called him a coward. Marta thinks he takes too many pitches. Top Gun, Marta, and Darin, what would a typical year look like to please you in terms of BA, OBP, HR, and OPS?
  20. tobi0040
    I would expect a bit of a period of adjustment as well, from catcher to 1B. He has been catching since I am guessing he was about 6 years old. So he is out of routine. Tough to say but something worth watching. I haven't heard any numbers though, regarding what numbers Mauer needs to put up year in and out to please people. BA, OBP, OPS, and HR
  21. tobi0040
    First off, that was very funny. For people criticizing Mauer and wanting more, what would an ideal year in BA, OBP, OPS, and HR for Mauer look like? What would make you happy? Let's not beat around the bush in terms of leadership, locker room speeches, first pitch strikes, or whatever. Let's get something we can analyze and evaluate in terms of numbers.
  22. tobi0040
    The draft is just one avenue to build a team. Drafting a safe pitcher like Nola that will likely not bust but whose ceiling is that of a #4 starter is a bad move. We can sign #4 starters like Kevin C. in free agency. Take a higher ceiling guy that could be an ace, we can't buy those on the FA market.
  23. tobi0040
    A sub 1.00 ERA. Absolutely. In all seriousness, you get people who bail on Mauer after 30 at bats, but nobody ever jumps on the bandwagon when someone starts out hot.
  24. tobi0040
    Some of the volatility maybe just the nature of him. But Yankee stadium, in my opinion explains 90% of his struggles. He has given up 43 HR outside of the new yankee stadium in 440 IP, a rate of .87 per 9 IP. He has given up 71 HR in 355 IP in yankee stadium, a rate of 1.78 He has a career ERA of 4.58 and we could argue one HR per 9 IP could potentially be removed. That is going to have a huge impact on his ERA.
  25. tobi0040
    His career ERA outside of the new Yankee stadium is around 4.15. I think that is about where he ends up or maybe a little better with the added confidence. That for 3/24 is a coup in my opinion.
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