tobi0040
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Everything posted by tobi0040
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2B and CF are not exactly organizational priorities at the moment.
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A 21.3 K to BB ratio will do that (so far this year). He looks real good. He does not face the same competition as the others, but his numbers in the Cape Cod league were incredible, 48 IP, 1.88 ERA, 60 K, 5 BB http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304049904579518121397407590
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I don't know of anyone in the Twins organization that has a belief that Polanco will be a short stop for the Twins. Here is a direct comment from Nick Nelson "there's almost no chance he'll play short regularly in the majors". All I am saying is Gordon at #5 has risks that someone like Jackson does not. Jackson's bat and power potential profiles at a number of positions. Nobody is saying Gordon's bat does. I don't need a SS that will hit 25 HR. I never said that. Just highlighting risks associated with this pick at #5. If you can take an 18 year old pitcher with two plus pitches or the best power bat in the draft, that risk/reward trade off seems better to me.
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The term "near lock to stick at SS" has been used, as well as "every scout says he will stick at SS". Pretty close to no risk.
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I have seen Touki in the 7-9 range, but I don't want to get too caught up in where other people think he should be drafted. I read his fastball sits 92-93 and can run up to 95-96 and he has a sick curve ball, as good as any in the draft and a future 70 pitch. Along with a serviceable change up, which is normal for a high school kid. Keith Law said Jackson has the best shot of anyone in this draft class of being a consistent 35 HR a year guy. The upside potential of those two interest me.
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I am not comparing Gordon with these other guys per se. I am just calling out a few things: -We have drafted or signed numerous SS prospects and moved them. A few we thought would stick at SS -We have very high standards for our SS defensively -It is common for a player to grow an inch or two and put on 15-25 pounds from when they are 17 or 18. Does anyone recognize this guy? He is now 6'4 or 6'5 and probably 225 or 230 pounds. So when I look at a kid that does not have a huge bat, i.e. would be limited if he is not a SS and is 6'1, 170 at this same age.....I guess I am not as sold that he is a lock to never grow off SS or meet our expectations. http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0906/mlb.last.25.number1.picks/images/joe-mauer-draft.jpg
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Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/243693621.html
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Lets discuss the "every team has a history". Am I crazy to think the Twins value defense at the SS position more than other teams and that the bar to stick at SS is higher here? Would every other franchise put up with Florimon for a full season (he has 600 AB's). How about Lexi Casilla at 2B, he had 1,700 at bats here. Nick Punto, etc. We have used two first round picks since 2004 on SS and moved them, Goodrum was a second rounder. Arguably two of our top three international signings have been short stops that have been moved. Does every team have this track record? I think given our history, which is unusual, we should do a little more research as to whether a guy will stay at SS. That is all. Regarding the comps. I am guessing upton, jones, and moustakis were not a 45 rated hitter. The difference is thise guys can hit and be above average at other positions. It is not clear gordon does
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I guess I don't understand how what position he plays is not at least a factor in drafting him. A 45/50 hit tool is a decent SS, but not a good corner OF, DH, 1B, or 3B. Not mention we have 4-6 prospects at 2B, a pretty good 3B coming up, etc.
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So Michael was 50/50 and he moved. Most said Dozier would stick and he moved. And everyone said Polanco would stick and he is likely moving. So we are at a minimum 0-3 and Polanco was supposed to be a defensive whiz who would not hit. You didn't mention Goodrum or Plouffe either. So for me, you have to consider the fact that with the 5th pick, a good chance exists that Gordon moves off of SS, in which case his value plummets quite a bit. A guy whose hit tool is 45/50 at #5 overall makes me think someone with more upside like a Toussant or Jackson makes more sense. Jackson is not a SS, but he is not a 45/50 either.
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Crain's ERA is 1.20 points better in Chicago than here. That is not "slightly better". Neshek - Two years after his injury he was terrible here and he has been lights out. Lohse - AL NL maybe, but that does not explain a 4.88 to 3.90 and 3.23. And his last year or so here he was awful. My point is, we can explain this or that. But I see a disconnect between Anderson's reputation and the sucess pre and post Twins. I don't think we can construct a list this long of guys that had more success when they got here over this same time frame. Certainly not one with 3 starters on it. Not all his fault, but certainly a data point.
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Let's distinguish something here. A scout saying he can stick at SS and him actually sticking at SS in the Twins system are two different things. Here is a quick list of players we have drafted or signed as a SS, that were either moved somewhere else or we at least doubt can stick there: Sano (high profile international signing), Dozier, Polanco, Goodrum, Plouffe (1st round pick), Levi Michael (1st round pick), Michael Cuddyer (1st round pick). I am probably forgetting one or two. So we have a history here.
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Here is a list of pitchers that have left since 2005 and had more success. I added Worley, who had the success prior to coming here as that is who the conversation started with. I also gave the benefit of the doubt on a few. Matt Garza had a 4.47 ERA here and has a career 3.88 ERA, but he was young here. Slowey's ERA is 20 basis points lower with the Marlins, etc. If we looked at the list of guys who had better luck before they came here the list would obviously grow. Is Anderson to blame for every one of these? No, but his iron clad reputation does not have actual numbers supporting it. RA Dickey 4.62 ERA as a Twin, 2.95 with the Mets and 4.30 with the Blue Jays Kyle Lohse 4.88 ERA as a Twin, 3.90 in STL and 3.23 with the Brewers. Vance Worley 7.21 ERA as a Twin, 3.50 with the Phillies. Grant Balfour 4.63 ERA as a Twin, 3.44 with TB and 2.53 with Oakland Jesse Crain 3.42 ERA as a Twin, 2.10 ERA with the White Sox Pat Neshek 3.05 ERA with the Twins, terrible in the two years after injury. 2.70 ERA with Oakland and 1.08 ERA with STL Francisco Liriano 4.33 ERA with the Twins, worse after his injury, 3.36 ERA with Pitt Luis Ayala 4.18 ERA with the Twins, 2.81 with Baltimore, 2.90 ERA with STL I would be interested in a list of pitchers who had better success with the Twins than nose dived after they left. Not all Andersons fault, but certainly a data point when evaluating a pitching coach
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The Pelfrey signing did not go over well, for obvious reasons. But had we not signed Pelfrey and left that #5 spot for Worley, I would have been beyond irate. These comment boards would have featured a lot of "moderator note", settle down everyone.
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And to be clear, the success bar for Hughes should be his ERA sans new Yankee stadium. I believe his career ERA is something like 4.10 out of that stadium. I could see Dick and Bert and the PR machine giving Anderson a ton of credit for getting Hughes ERA into this range. If you compile a list of guys that have had more success after they left versus before they got here, the after they left is ahead by a mile. And Cueller should get the Johan credit.
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If he was viewed as a guy that could have a .790 OPS and even have average defense, he would be off the board at #5. I have seen a 45 and 50 for hit tool, so that doesn't scream .790 OPS to me. The other issue I see is he is 6'1 and 170 pounds in high school. Our organization has a very, very high threshold for short stops defensively and we have umpeen 2B prospects that we drafted or signed as SS, not to mention a guy that may be there for awhile. What are the odds this guy grows off the position and/or can't meet our requirements if he is between 6'1 and 6'3 and weights 190+ pounds? If he grows off SS and is a 45/50 hitter, he is a marginal MLB player at best. In response to the draft order, I am thinking we end up 8-12th in the next draft, which is not supposed to be as talented.
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If the 3 arms are off the table and Jackson is off the table. You have to consider it. Add Jose Fernandez to the argument. He went 6th overall and was an upside guy. Tore up MLB and now he likely needs Tommy John. I bet right now in a re-draft, five guys don't go ahead of him. If Hoffman's ceiling is much higher than the next teir, it could be a good strategy. The draft is literally the only avenue the Twins have left to add high ceiling talent. We were never players in free agency and the international free agent market has priced us out as well (I am not saying we should be priced out, but that is another topic). We also won't be drafting this high anytime soon. Sounds like the next tier includes two SS's who aren't going to hit much.
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I agree. Championship caliber teams have guys like this on them. He is not a #3 or #4 hitter on a championship team. But he is a guy that can come up with an OPS over .800 in the 40 games you play against a lefty. Mauer and Arcia have a history of being banged up and going on the DL, having Plouffe around to step in is huge. These things win games over the course of a year.
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You lost me at non-tender. Even if he is making $3M a year. He can hit in five positions (3B, 1B, LF, RF, DH) and crushes lefties. If we are lucky enough to have a better hitter at 3B, 1B, DH, LF, and RF and nobody at those spots is hurt, he is a bench alternative to the likes of one of our 3 SS, Parmelee, Hermann, our 3rd catcher, etc. If Sano comes up and sticks at 3B, of course you gauge his value as 3B is a weak position in the league. But the alternative is a great platoon player, not a non-tender.
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I would not be upset if we took Hoffman at #5, lets just think about this for a second. -He won't be available with our second pick, he just won't. -He has more upside than anyone else, look back at the 2009 draft. Strasburg went 1-1 and needed TJ. In a re-draft, Trout goes 1-1 and Strasburg goes 1-2 (only other player drafted in the first round in the conversation is Wheeler) -TJ seems like the rule, not the exception these days -We could sign him for less than slot and save money with our other picks http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Major_League_Baseball_Draft
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I am a big fan of Plouffe. He doesn't make much money. He is league average right now and if Sano pushes him off 3B he may be able to move to a corner OF spot, and at the very least be a bench/platoon option elsewhere against lefties (career .826 OPS)* *Assumes the Twins change course and adopt a platooning strategy
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That could be, but .711 would rank 14th among SS so far this year. Consider a few things: -Santana has been younger than every league he has been in -He has averaged close to 20 doubles a year -His SB totals from 2011 to 2013 were 24, 17, and 30 -What are the other options? Lets let this kid learn up here and put up better numbers doing it than the alternative. http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#sectionType=sp&sortColumn=ops&season=2014&league_code='MLB'&statType=hitting&game_type='R'&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&season_type=ANY&page=1&ts=1399913834327&position='6' http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=santan001dan
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Not to mention, Plouffe's .706 OPS is 12th in the major leagues. It is almost as if we had Mike Schmidt at 3B for 20 years and he just retired and we have unrealistic expectations for the next guy. Rather, Plouffe replaced the likes of Mike Lamb, Tony Bautista, Nick Punto, etc. http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#sectionType=sp&sortColumn=ops&season=2014&league_code='MLB'&statType=hitting&game_type='R'&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&season_type=ANY&page=1&ts=1399911477735&position='5'
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While it would typically be horrible if your SS batting average drops to .220, he would be getting 2x the hits of the guy he is replacing. So i think this works out really well. We get way more offensive production out of SS and he can learn on the job. I assure you, if 80 balls get through the SS gaps, Pedro would not get to 40 of them. So this works out pretty well.
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Personally, I see Kohl sliding right into the #30 prospect overall after this year. Right where Meyer is. But I never like giving up cost controlled studs for someone who will make $25M a year and is 30. You may get Kohl for 14-15 years and it will cost you $150M. Or Price in his declining years 29-35 for $180M (you get the point).