tobi0040
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Everything posted by tobi0040
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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Aaron Nola
tobi0040 replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, we have to take him. He is going to be one of the best pitchers of all time. I remember when Slowey received comps to Maddux because he didn't walk anyone. -
On my what not to do when attempting to get back to the major leagues, things like "not hustle" will need to be replaced with "do not bite team members ear off"
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My understanding is he took 1/10 and will become a free agent but he could have taken 1/14 and become a free agent.
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True, his client got less than accepting the deal 3 months ago. But Twins fail for not offering more.
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Another metric we should look at is RAONA (Runners advanced on noodle arm). I am guessing Revere is leading the league.
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[quote name=Brock Beauchamp;230690 I don't think Correia can be traded. I'm fine with a DFA if he continues to struggle. As for Pelfrey' date=' I'm also fine with him getting the nod IF he's throwing in the low 90s again. If he's not, DL him again or DFA him if he won't "come down" with an injury. The guy is flat-out useless unless he's throwing hard. .[/quote] I have a hard time believing the Yankees would not trade for Correia. Career 4.49 ERA, 4.18 last year. He has had a few rocky starts this year. But with CC and Pineda currently out CC maybe for awhile I would think we could move him there.
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The 46th pick is has a value of 1.21M. The 20th pick has a value of $2.03M. We came up with $240K in savings last year through later rounds. So we are $580K short. Last year Appel signed for $1.44M less than slot, Gray signed for $800K less than slot. Frazier signed for $280K less than slot. So not paying at slot at #5 and being creative in the later rounds seems feasible to me. The bigger issue is who will be available at #46? Houston and the Marlins have used this strategy in the past and have multiple picks before us, so do the Royals and Indians.
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Going under slot at #5 isn't the only way. Kohl received a bonus right at slot last year and we still were able to give Gonslaves $700K, much more than his $460K slot. We did that primarily by giving only 40K to our 9th round pick. I understand Gonslaves was a 4th round pick, but you can be creative.
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Are we giving Aaron Hicks a raw deal?
tobi0040 commented on Greg Logan's blog entry in Bloop Singles
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I didn't mean they both completely skipped and I see 36 games for Gomez. Regardless of the fact that Gomez was up earlier and Hicks was in the minors longer, it was clear from watching the both of them that they could have used more seasoning in the minors. In his first full season, Go Go had 142 K's and 25 BB's. Gomez was promoted too quick because Twins brass wanted to have something to show for the Santana trade, in my opinion. They came into spring training saying it was an open competition and Span was flat out better, yet Go GO got the job.
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Jeremy, I think the "crap" yesterday got a little twisted. You said offensively he could become Simmons, I pointed out that Simmons bat isn't very impressive. Then others tried stating I didnt' see the value in Simmons, which is almost all based on his glove. If I came off as attacking your comp, that wasn't my point, sorry.
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Similarities - They both skipped AAA, they both were promoted too quick. They were both very raw, yet toolsy and skilled, highly rated. They both struggled a ton and did not look like MLB players at first Differences - Gomez was younger when initially brought up, but still struggled at 24, 25, etc. Didn't click until about 26-27, 1,500 at bats into his career. The composition of their struggle is different. Gomez had a higher BA and no walks, Hicks had a lower BA with a ton of walks. Tons of similarities to me.
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I think 90% of this discussion has come down to a debate about floor and ceiling of each player considered at #5, and the risks and likelihood associated with them meeting the ceiling. Maybe a relevant discussion would be to get a list of players considered at #5 and a rough framework of how that player projects. For the sake of this, I don't want to get into the business of predicting injuries. It is certainly an implied risk with pitchers more than position players. Here is a quick overview of Aiken, based on about 10 minutes of research: Best asset - 6'4 lefty. His stuff right now is 65 FB, 60 curve, 60 change, 60 control. Ceiling - Front line starter, tall lefty with 2-3 plus pitches and a mid 90's fastball Floor - If the scout ratings above are correct (where he is right now), #2 starter, very good #3 starter with no improvement to these. Key Risk - He is a high school pitcher List of players considered: Aiken, Rodon, Freeland, Jackson, Gordon, Touki, Nola, and Kolek. I don't have time to look at them all
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Exceptions apply, but you have the draft, trades, international signings, and free agency. High profile pitchers are off limits to the Twins in both free agency and international signings. Certainly the Yankees have been helped by CC (FA) and Tanaka (international). The Tigers by overslot drafts (Verlander and Porcello) and free agency (Anibal), and so on. The Rangers by Darvish. The Rays best pitcher was the best upside in that draft. The Dodgers took Greinke and certainly Kershaw was an upside pick in the draft. I think that was the point of the post and one that I agree with.
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The ability to differentiate is different than you articulating that your statements more clearly. For example, saying "Hicks has no place in a productive outfield" is different than "Hicks has no place in a productive outfield right now, but he may improve to the point of being a productive player down the road". The first statement suggests you were giving up on him, the second explicitly states you are not.
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That is the issue, Nola doesn't have a plus pitch or a swing and miss pitch. These guys don't project as an ace or #2, most say he is a 3 or 4.
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My thoughts exactly. This is our shot at upside, that is why I like Freeland or Touki (if the big 3 are gone). If it is a position player, I prefer Jackson with the same logic. If he is a 35 HR a year guy he is likely off limits to us in free agency as well.
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You should be able to play it safe in the first round and draft a low ceiling guy that pans out to a bad MLB player. He has 47 extra base hits in 1,550 at bats. It isn't as much about results, it was that we wanted to use our 1st round pick to save money and took a guy that most had as a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the first round. The five guys drafted in front of Revere all signed for about $1.2M. Rick Porcello was drafted #27 and signed for $3.5M. You have to get to pick 41 to see someone who signed for less. The process is the irritating part. A lot of these guys have been busts, but at least they bought a ticket for the drawing. http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=1314
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Kind of what I had in mind. Regarding the fact that Didi was the #3 pick, that is a sunk cost. They have their SS of the future but he is in AAA playing well. Seems like a great fit for both teams frankly.
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My personal opinion is most of the numbers, like defensive WAR have the direction right. The guys with the biggest WAR are the best and lowest the worst. But they over-estimate the importance.
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Between Revere and Rams, we really knocked it out of the park.
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What part was taken out of context? Saying he has no place in a productive outfield sounds an awful lot like you are giving up on him. Unless your point of view is that our goal is to have an unproductive outfield and which case, he is a great fit.
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This sounds an awful lot like giving up on him to me. "Twins outfielders as a whole this year are far below replacement level. They are the worst in the Majors by an immense margin. If that is your standard, then certainly Hicks can remain a starter. But if you want a productive outfield, Hicks has no place in it."
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Detroit took Verlander and Porcello over slot during this time period. And also Andrew Miller, who was a key to the Cabrera trade. We really showed them.
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You asked if we disagreed. I compiled three or four of your posts and said that I disagreed with them, then specifically responded to each point. I never said it was a lock that he turns it around, just that I am not ready to move on after 400 at bats given his age, potential, tools, and that it took Go Go about five years. Your comments suggest you are ready to move on. That is where the disagreement is and I was very clear about that. I would personally give Hicks the reps through the rest of the year in CF. If Buxton is ready next spring, then bring him up and Hicks is in competition for the corners or explore a trade (which I would do starting next spring anyway).