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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I agree, are teams really going to take a guy they think is inferior because they want to block them from a team behind them?
  2. tobi0040
    I know Levi was not commenting specifically on a figure 8 last night, but his route was flawless. Straight to the wall, if we want to nitpick he had to reach back about a foot. A great play. http://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/aaron-hicks-robs-home-run-tremendous-catch-video/230737
  3. tobi0040
    My top 4 is the same, with Kolek and Jackson flipped. My #5 is Touki. In reality, unless one of the pitchers falls to us, this draft has Gordon written all over it.
  4. tobi0040
    I could see 75-77 wins. Nolasco will be better, Correa will turn into a 6-9 pitcher that throws 98. May might replace Gibson if he doesn't improve. Hughes may regress a bit but not enough to make up for the things above. Our offense is 10th in the AL in runs. That is probably where we end up. You can argue we have an above average hitter at 2B and 3B and at least average at C and 1B. Arcia should prove about average. Escobar may prove to be an average hitting SS (I don't see .350 at the end of the year).
  5. tobi0040
    I can't argue it would be easier to learn at AAA, but of course the Twins don't have many options. One would hope that he stands in the batters box for every righty's bullpen session, at a minimum. You can probably get decent semi-pro pitchers to come in every day for pennies and pitch to him to speed this up. But I am probably giving the Twins too much credit for thinking this through. On a side note, Hicks has taken a lot of flack on these boards for his defense, but had a great night last night robbing a 3 run HR and an absolute bullet to 2B preventing the runner from tagging (separate plays).
  6. tobi0040
    Granted he came up much younger, but Gomez didn't really "figure it out" at the plate until year 5 or 6. His OPS bounced between .640-.670 for 4-5 years. Alex Pressley, who we discarded had a career OPS of .714 prior to this year and he is regarded as a 4th OF.
  7. tobi0040
    The Twins have botched this situation badly. Hicks has had lousy splits for six years in the minors and that would have been when to do this. I think it is still neccesary, just a shame he needs to do this at the MLB level because we wanted to put Bartlett on this team. Thinking through a team in rebuilding mode, with one of the best farm systems, you have to wonder whether this coaching staff/front office is the right one for the point the Twins are in their life cycle. To think of Gardy and the front office helping Buxton, Sano, Meyer, May, etc. adjust up here is kind of scary.
  8. tobi0040
    I think you need to ask what the guys strengths are. If the first thing you hear is communication and not finding and developing talent, then he should go back to being a PR guy. Here is a real crazy thought. Maybe the best successor to Terry Ryan is not currently employed the by the Twins? The first hand off was to a guy that was mainly an administrator and that didn't go well. How is a hand off to a communication guy going to be any better?
  9. tobi0040
    If you go back to why he became a switch hitter, it tells the story. His dad forced him to become a switch hitter to test him and see if he really liked baseball (his dad did not want him to play baseball). He didn't do it because he was naturally gifted from both sides of the plate. Thanks Dad.
  10. tobi0040
    I think the career 3.81 ERA without the K's will hurt him. 5.2 K per 9 for his career. He is having a good year thus far, but odds are he finishes with a higher ERA and even lower K number.
  11. tobi0040
    "If, not when" is saying something is in fact going to happen. No?
  12. tobi0040
    it is tempting to stash in him AAA. But it is time that we bring up Meyer and May and rid ourselves of veterans that aren't as good.
  13. tobi0040
    One of the main reasons was Hicks did not respond well last year when he was sent down. I think it hurt his confidence more. We will see but we may never know the counter-factual.
  14. tobi0040
    I don't neccesarily agree with this, but it is a line of thought I can respect. I think he needs confidence up here though. I don't have the answer and I can't say I am 100% right. It varies from player to player. My personal opinion is that it has been something between the ears with Hicks when he steps onto the MLB field and that will only be overcome through success at this level.
  15. tobi0040
    We are just on a different page I guess. We will not know if Hicks has turned the corner or if he is going to have a miserable season in a few weeks. What I can confidently say is that Hicks doesn't need to improve much to be the same player now as Fuld or a 32 year old Grady Sizemore. Neither of those two guys is on this team when we are good again.
  16. tobi0040
    I don't get it. Sizemore is almost 32, never stays healthy and is not really an upgrade over Hicks right now. Over the last 10 games, Hicks is hitting .241 with 6 BB. In the last 7 days (six games), he is hitting .357, on base .500, OPS .833. I get this is a limited sample size, but he needs confidence at this level and he is on a little roll. It would be a terrible time and long term move to replace him with Grady.
  17. tobi0040
    This would be a huge shock, Beeds has walked 4.5 guys per 9, to see the Twins take him over Gordon or Nola, I don't see this happening.
  18. tobi0040
    I completely agree about the parallels between Hicks and Gomez. I had seen enough regarding Gomez and was absolutely shocked we were able to get Hardy for him. I would have traded him for a big mac. Having been 100% wrong on him and seeing how long it took for him to click, we need to have patience with Hicks. I think we need to look at it in terms of age and MLB at bats. Gomez clicked in the back half of 2011, his OPS splits that year were .660/.819. The next year at 26 he had a .768 OPS and .800+ the following year. At the end of the 2011 season, Gomez was 25 and had 1,678 at bats under his belt spanning five seasons. Hicks will be 25 next month and has only 468 MLB at bats. I am not saying Hicks also needs 1,600 at bats given is age, but he needs more than 460. They are a different kind of player, Gomez will always have better power and not walk much, Hicks maybe the opposite. But both are young and talented and needed a little time.
  19. tobi0040
    Neck injury or not, I am not sure how the Tigers got rid of that contract. He was slumping and certainly is not going to age well.
  20. tobi0040
    I would agree prior to the slotting process. But Boras doesn't have much leverage at this point. Especially for a high school kid, if they go to school they have to go for 3 years. It does mean down the road we may not be able to sign them and it certainly means we aren't getting a sweetheart, pre arbitration/free agency deal. But you take BPA now in my opinion. If you get a good player for 4-5 years on the cheap and flip them, it isnt' the end of the world. Look at the A's.
  21. tobi0040
    We were looking at two slightly different time frames. I looked at opening day thru 5/20. Between 5/22 and 5/31 last year he had 3 HR and 2 2B. But his slugging was a little higher in the period I looked up this year versus last year. The word "way" I should have called out referred to BA, OBP, and BB rate.
  22. tobi0040
  23. tobi0040
    I have generally heard references to plus pitches being 65+, but I don't know if this is neccesarily an exact science. Fangraphs gives comps and stats that provide context to the numbers, but only on command and fastball velocity. For 60 command they give a BB rate of 5.7% and the comp is Rick Porcello. He has a career 2.2 BB per 9, which is very good. 60 fastball velocity averages 93 mph. I like the Porcello comp as a potential floor for Nola, career ERA 4.42 and FIP of 4.06. Porcello's ERA was hurt by the fact that he was starting at 20. But Nola should be around 2.2 BB Per 9, but the key is the K's. Porcello is at 5.5 per 9. If Nola can be in the 6.5-7.5 per 9 range I think he can be a #2 starter as well. Given a lower bust potential, if we think he can be that guy I don't hate the pick here, although Jackson and a higher upside arm intrigue me a little more. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-20-80-scale-sabr-style/
  24. tobi0040
    If he hits .230 with this walk rate, he could be leading off with a .370 OBP. I am guessing the defense will improve and you have a pretty decent to good CF.
  25. tobi0040
    I think it comes down to how many k's will this guy get. If we think he will walk less than 2 batters per 9 and K over 7, I would come around a bit to drafting him at 5. I have read a few scouts say that he doesn't have that swing and miss pitch. The one pitch on this article looks great, but it was one pitch. My understanding is he has gotten better as the year progressed and has seen his stock rise, do scouts feel like that fastball or change up are now swing and miss pitches?
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