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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    My thoughts as well. Last off-season we signed Nolasco and Hughes, #2/3 starters. We almost had Garza too. Supply and demand issue.
  2. tobi0040
    Faleris has Kolek 11th on his board and Law has Nola going to the White Sox. Crazy.
  3. tobi0040
    Hitters - Bat 5.5% of the time (1/18) and play every game. They impact 8.91 full games a year (.055 x 162) Pitchers - Assuming 6 IP per start, they impact 33.33% percent of 33 games (6 / 18). They play 11 full games a year (33 x .3333) We are leaving out defense I know. But when you factor in a position player is still 1/18th and 95% of the time an MLB player will make the play.....it isn't going to swing this analysis.
  4. tobi0040
    I am not suggesting always take a pitcher. But if they are even, I prefer pitching. My argument for Touki or Newcomb is that if they reach potential, that is the type of player we could only get in the draft (not free agency or international FA). Granted Drew is more above average hitting and average defensively (Gordon projects as the opposite), we could have afforded him. It is a ceiling issue for me.
  5. tobi0040
    How was that ignored? Over the course of the year a pitcher that pitches 200 IP and faces 4 batters an inning has 800 at bats. A position player usually gets 550- 625 at bats. The fact that those 800 at bats are only in 35 games is irrelevant because that is already accounted for to note that the games they do play, they are much more involved. Lets use two extreme examples. Last year Kershaw gave up 1.8 runs over 216 innings (33 games). Mike Trout played every day and 1.2 hits per game. A HR every 5.3 games or so. An SB about every fifth game. An exta base hit about every third game. Give me the guy that absolutely shuts down the other team 20% of the time.
  6. tobi0040
    FB 50-65 SL 55-70 Change 40-50. Command 40-50. He gets dinged a bit because he came on late and does not face top competition. But if you buy the 20-80 scores I would love the pick Love the comp to Lester and he looks like Lester. Some video http://metsminors.net/2014-mlb-draft-profile-sean-newcomb/ Write Up http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2014/mlb-draft-profiles/Sean-Newcomb
  7. tobi0040
    Or to answer and insult the person asking the quesiton.
  8. tobi0040
    I bet Nola goes 6-8
  9. tobi0040
    I have tried making this point before and am surprised you still hear the every day argument. Every play is primarily batter vs. pitcher. So a starting pitcher that pitches 7 innings is in on 39% of the plays (7 / 18), versus the hitter at 5.5% of the plays (1 / 18)
  10. tobi0040
    I think you could compile a list of high players that throw really hard, that we would not mind having on our team. Here is a quick 3. Felix Hernandez (not drafted but threw hard at 18), Josh Beckett, Jose Fernandez
  11. tobi0040
    Beware of the last minute rumor. Could have been started by anyone at 3-8 hoping to get lucky.
  12. tobi0040
    I have Touki #6. very close to Newcomb. Touki is 17, 94-95 fb, best curve in the draft. Some command/raw concerns. I prefer Newcomb slightly because he is 3 inches taller, a lefty, and more velo on the fb even though his slider is not rated quite as high as Touki's curve. He is 3 years older though and I would like the approach if we took either.
  13. tobi0040
    I think Touki and Newcomb, specifically have features that could make them #1 starters. Totally agree about Nola. You also have free agency. We signed two guys in the 2-3 mold last off-season alone.
  14. tobi0040
    I agree about a pitcher becuase we won't be this high for awhile. I am hoping Gordon goes ahead of us and we pick between Kolek and Newcomb.
  15. tobi0040
    Dead horse warning. If Danny Santana is a fixture on this team in the future, it is at SS. Playing him in CF over Hicks makes no sense to me in a year where we are not making a run.
  16. tobi0040
    I see 80 wins as the best we can do, still very good. In a year where we are not getting to the playoffs, I would rather see 75 wins and the following things happen: Pinto catch 3-4 days a week Santana play SS Hicks play CF Matt G. turn into Tonkin Kevin C. turn into Meyer Deduno move to the pen and May take his spot Kubel get his gold watch and a retirement party Our manager should not get credit for winning 4-5 more games than we all thought, but in doing so stunting the development of key players. This franchise has a history of getting rid of prospects/players too early. We could be in a position next year where we need to make decisions on Hicks/Santana/Pinto if we sign a catcher and not have enough information because we wanted a few extra wins in a meaningless year.
  17. tobi0040
    If this is the official thread, should the "MLB Draft Day 1" be shut down to avoid duplication? My board, if anyone cares is 1. Aiken 2. Rodon 3. Jackson 4. Kolek 5. Newcomb 6. Touki 7. Gordon
  18. tobi0040
    Here is my board: 1. Aiken 2. Rodon 3. Jackson 4. Kolek, and 5. Newcomb.
  19. tobi0040
    For me I prefer Newcomb because he is a lefty, 3 inches taller, and has 2-3 more mph on the fastball. Touki's curve is rated slightly higher than Newcomb's slider, but those other things are key.
  20. tobi0040
    This draft has a lot of moving parts. I think the Cubs are pulling the ultimate smoke screen as you note. Nothing in Theo's history in Chicago or Boston suggests he is not going to draft the best player available and he doesn't care about taking the 10th best player to save money. I expect Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, or Kolek at #4. I don't get why all the mocks have Touki 10-13th. He is 17 years old, his fastball is in the 94 range and he has the best curve in the draft, that is almost unanimous. Sure command worries, etc. but my gut says someone in the 7-10 range won't be able to look past that. Then you have the Rodon thing. I personally don't think he goes back to school if he is taken 3-5. Appel going #1 was a huge coup for Boras and he will absolutely play that card, but #4 for example has a value of $4.6M and that team can pay more than that. So the risk/reward doesn't seem like it is there. Getting to the Twins. I hope Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, or Kolek fall and we take whoever does. But I don't expect that to happen. I think we are picking between Newcomb and Gordon. I was looking up more information on Newcomb and I stumbled on his perfect game profile from 2011 as a senior in high school. It was interesting because his fastball sat at only 86 mph. Then when I read his profile now they say he sits mid 90's and can hit 96-97 and could add velocity (guessing because he has seen it jump). I hope if we are picking between those two, we take Newcomb. 6-5 lefty. fastball 50-65. Slider 55-70. Change 40-50. Command 40-50.
  21. tobi0040
    Do you think Gordon has the same upside as Kolek?
  22. tobi0040
    I have been wrong, one Byron Buxton (I wanted Gausman). But I have universally disliked Revere, Wimmers, relief pitchers in the 1st or 2nd round (several), etc. It is about the process. When the ceiling of a guy is a good reliever, don't bother here, that kind of thing.
  23. tobi0040
  24. tobi0040
    Add Goodrum into the hopper, a second round pick that won't hack it at SS.
  25. tobi0040
    First, we should be able to disagree without you telling me what I need to do. I never compared Polanco to Gordon specifically. I painted a picture of a franchise that has moved off 7-8 guys from SS in the last 6-7 years, a trend I think is a little excessive in this organization compared to others around the league. I brought up Polanco because he was supposed to be a great defensive SS, but then we discovered his arm was not strong enough. I have also seen someone like Joe Mauer grow 4 inches and put on at least 40 pounds after his 18th birthday. So I don't know that anyone is every a lock to not fill out or grow. At the end of the day that was not my major reason for not wanting Gordon at #5 anyway. I think his ceiling is not as high as other players that will be availalble. Nobody is saying he will be a .300 hitter, a power hitter, or a gold glove SS. So I don't see the upside that some of the others have.
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