tobi0040

Pino, Kris Johnson, and Fryer for Trout and what else from the Angels?

If we knew, or even thought this was a spot start, nobody would be too worked up about it. Nobody from the organization has stated that is the goal, this is speculation at this point. Further, most of the comments defending this move have pointed out that Pino is the most deserving guy and the one who helps us win now. After these comments have been pushed back by suggesting luck has played a role in his 2014, it seems now settle down this is a spot start comments have come out.

I completely agree. Even prior to this year, if you look at Hughes ERA outside of Yankee stadium it was 4.11. Clearly that, his age, his stuff, and his K rate suggest we should not dump him. Nor does his career 4.15 FIP, which is still inflated because of all the HR's and doubles he gave up in the old Yankee stadium. This comp does not make any sense to me.

I understand some inconsistencies. If a pitcher is getting hit very hard, BABIP will likely be higher for example. But if you have a guy over 1,000 IP that has 26-33% of his runners scoring (veries yearly) and he is all the sudden at a clip of only 8.5%? If his BABIP is usually around .300 and he is at .222. He is extremely lucky. No doubt about it. The same was true about Phil Hughes after 3 starts. 41% of his balls in play were hits and a crazy amount of his base runners were scoring. He had a 7+ ERA and a FIP in the low 3's. What has happened since? ERA tracked FIP as it usually does. I am glad we didn't send him to AAA because his "results" were bad.

I think you are mixing up myself and drive.... The third grade comment is in response to this "I am really happy for him" and "deserves a shot", referencing how long he has waited. It is the equivalent of little Johnny has been standing there waiting to play a really long time so we should get him in there. 24 year old #3 prospect, (Meyer) FIP is 3.39 25 year old #7-10 prospect (May) FIP is 2.91 29 year old, unranked prospect (Pino) FIP is 3.69 Outside of the context of the last 60 IP, Meyer's numbers are far and away better than the other two. It isn't even close. Not to mention 97 has a better track record against MLB hitters than does 87. When you back out luck (BABIP and LOB %), Pino does not deserve anything.

We could have probably claimed him six different times. Whether it was the Twins or these other teams, he has been consistently passed over for a reason. My guess is it is a combination of his numbers, age, and stuff.

How much of this is luck? Pino .222 BABIP and 8.5% of his runners have scored. Meyer .311 BABIP and 28.2% of his runners have scored (Meyer has a higher K rate as well) Are we really thinking Pino has trade value? Regarding the "deserves a shot", is this 3rd grade kick-ball at recess? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa294918&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa455438&position=P

Let's not get too carried away with 61 IP. Pino has left 91.5% of his runners on base this year. That is masking his numbers quite a bit. Let's put a few runners on base against the Tigers, Rangers, etc. and see if 8.5% of them score with the 87 mph fastball. His average most years ranges from 66-74% In 1,093 major league innings, he has a 3.74 ERA with 8.1 K per 9. As a 29 year old journeyman. It really should not matter who has a better chance to win Thursday, it should be about developing our best pitching prospect. But for the sake of argument, even if it was about who had the better chance of winning Thursday, my vote would still be Meyer. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa294918&position=P

That is my hope too, a one start thing. They told the guy, you are 29 and have been applying for this job for 9 years. We are going to bring Meyer up but we need to line the days up. Fly your family in, you will be pitching for one game at Target field. Congrats. If they move him to the pen after a start I would not be as upset, but then would rather have Tonkin or Achter with the same logic applying.

1-3 years from now, it doesn't matter if we won 74 games or 76 games in 2014. It really doesn't at all. That is why I am unable to "strip away" who is the best for our future. I don't get the premise at all. Not to mention Meyer's stuff is more likely to get MLB hitters out. So we are more likely to have more wins with Meyer, IMO

I just dont follow why this is OK. We have virtual agreement about the fact that Meyer will be a better major league pitcher. We have virtual agreement that another two months in AAA is not going to do much of anything for Meyer, except get him closer to or right to his innings limit. Yet we are supposed to be okay with a 29 year old because he is having a good year? "paid his dues", and "deserves a shot" and "don't worry Meyer and May will eventually be up" are really the defense of this move? My two cents is we have been conditioned to really, really weird decisions by this franchise. Especially lately. I may sound like a broken record here. But this franchise needs to get on the same page and stop this willy nilly approach. Are we a rebuilding team, a contending team? Is our goal 4th place in the AL central? The FO needed to communicate a goal to the fans and coaches about what exactly it is we are trying to do. People can criticize Houston's $20M payroll and that is embarrasing. But they at least had a vision and a blueprint. That allowed them to make certain decisions through the lens of building a contending team. They didn't sign Jason Bartlett's or Matt Guerriers. When they needed an outfielder this year, they promoted Jon Singleton, their #3 prospect who is 23 years old, not their version of Chris Parmelee or CC. Here they sit, with the same amount of wins as us (and three more losses). They seem to be moving in the right direction, developing the guys that are going to help them win tomorrow. I don't advocate the $20M payroll. Mauer would not allow us to get that low anyway, and I am OK with a vet here or there if they are not blocking anyone of value. But this franchise would be in a much better position if we had a vision and blueprint three years ago.

The bolded part is what should not have had him in the big's. At least over Meyer and May.

This is a really, really interesting franchise. "Next in line" and "deserves a shot" trumps best talent available, developing the players that are young and have a future here. To think I thought, for a second after we signed Morales that we would be done with Minnesota nice and actually make the correct decisions.

Another reason why K rates and career numbers are valuable.

You may be right. Hopefully the market has been gauged and it is worth the wait. I would be shocked if we got a player that cracks our top 20 list. If it is between a Miguel Sulbaren type prospect or another 10 starts for Meyer or May, I will take the latter.

I agree. When we had threads in spring training about what success this year means, everyone talked about clarity and development. Let's see guys take a step forward and lets get some clarity about what it is we have. Despite having a few more wins than I would have thought, I still think whether or not this year is a success depends on these things. So leaving Kevin around because he has strung together a few starts doesn't seem to fit to the big picture.

I think the issue with the Shields trade is that KC did not require an extension as part of the deal. It was noted before, but they had control over Myers for 5 years and he was probably relatively signable for another 2-3. If they would have signed Shields to a 4-5 year extension the deal could have been at least defensible. A similar deal for Price would definitely involve Buxton or Sano, plus something as the Rays got the #3 prospect in the game (Myers) and the #35 prospect (Odorizzi). I would not be in favor of that deal for Price, just to turn around and have to pay him $25M a year. As good as Jeff S. has been this year, we are talking about a 29 year old guy with a career 3.99 ERA, who wants a 6+ year deal in excess of $100M. No thanks.

I used career stats because I think it is valuable to look at the last 500 IP in addition to the last 50. Meyer has an established track record of better results, by far and his stuff profiles as a lot more likely to get MLB hitters out.

In my book, you need a lefty starter is right up there with you need a 3rd catcher. To choose a guy with a 3.94 career minor league ERA with 6.4 K per 9 (Darnell) over a guy with a 3.08 ERA with 10.4 K per 9 (Meyer) because the other four pitchers are righties doesn't make sense to me.

KC had a 4.18 ERA last year and asked for an extension and we politely said no. We signed three free agent pitchers in that off-season and had several in-house candidates. I have no inside information, but I am guessing we tried unloading Kevin in the off-season and we didn't find anything of value in return. Teams preferred giving Scott Feldman $30M than giving up a decent prospect and taking on $5M for Kevin. So with an ERA in the 5's in mid-June, I think the people holding out for anything of value in return are going to be dissapointed. I have to believe we will get even less now. Maybe I am wrong about the trade value, but I am confident waiting another 8-10 starts is pushing off the inevitable and that is 8-10 fewer starts we won't have to evaluate/develop a good young starter.

I get the death and taxes logic. But believing something will happen is the basis for almost every roster decision. We can't not make the move because a chance exists it won't work out.

I think a logical discussion about Correa has the following two questions: -Are we a contending team this year? -If Yes, is Correa going to be an upgrade over May or Meyer right now? If either one of those questions is a no (I think both are). Then Correia on this team only makes sense if we want to give Corriea an extension because we view him as someone in our rotation next year and beyond. Or if we think his trade value is going to spike for some reason, at 33 and in a season where he has a mid 5.00's ERA in mid June. I get another a few more no's. I am in the camp that we have better options right now that will help us win more games this year and the fact that those are guys with a future here is a huge bonus. So this notion that Kevin is here until he pitches his way out doesn't make any sense to me.

Kevin has 3 k's in those 11 IP over his last two starts. That type of BABIP is not sustainable and we know what Kevin is at this point. His ERA on the year is 5.29, career 4.53 mostly NL. He is 33 now and not part of the future. The only thing we could hope for is a trade, but the market for him as a free agent was not a booming market and I am guessing we made phone calls after his 4.29 ERA last year with no one that would bite, even with only one year and $5M left on his contract. I personally believe May and Meyer over KC will help this team win more games now, and obviously Kevin will not be part of this team next year. So it is inevitable at this point. We may as well accept it and move on.

The future is now. May and Meyer are upgrades now and into the future. I agree, they should replace Deduno and KC. Achter needs to get a shot as well. Johnson is 29 and Pino is 30, so they should be viewed as relief or starter depth, i.e. come up if we have a rash of injuries for a game or two, double-headers, etc. I don't really see where KC fits. If we can't get anything in return for him, we should DFA him. He is not helping us in the rotation blocking someone younger and better. I think Swarzak is perfect where we have him. A long reliever/pen guy with a 3.28 ERA last year and 3.85 this year is a useful piece.