Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

nytwinsfan

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,784

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    Yeah, with Plouffe, Sano, Mauer, and Hunter, not sure where he fits, unless Ryan/Molitor are ok with him playing every other day, and pinch hitting against right-handed relievers. I'd be all for that, but I doubt Ryolitor is.
  2. nytwinsfan
    No, just ones that don't give any specifics and regurgitate almost word for word what other scouts have said. If you read carefully, you can tell the difference.
  3. nytwinsfan
    "Before the season" being the key words. I disagree about those odds. I think a positive projection for Lucroy over the next 2.5 seasons is 7.5 WAR and for Smith is 1.5 WAR. That's being charitable. I think it is a greater than 50% chance that Polanco and Kepler combined are worth 9 WAR over their 12 years of team control.
  4. nytwinsfan
    I agree that is a possibility for the outfield, but I'd rather see Buxton and a combo of Kepler, Rosario, and Hicks, probably with Hicks getting most of his at bats against lefties and maybe playing in the outfield in the 8th/9th inning when the Twins are ahead. As for the quip about Sano's defense, I don't even know what that means. A lot of scouts are just repeating what other scouts have said, without giving it much thought or even observing him. Sano definitely has the arm and charging speed for third. His potential issues are his lateral movement and tendency to commit errors. But Plouffe's current lateral movement is not amazing by any means, and he committed a lot of errors in the minors. Further, Sano cut down on his errors a lot in June (only 3 I believe). I guess my strong opinion is that while Sano will never be an asset defensively, Arcia is a bigger liability in the outfield than Sano is at third, which is why I would make Arcia into a DH medium-term, not Sano (I'm fine with Sano DH'ing this year while Plouffe is still here). Plouffe only has two years of control left after this one, and I think it makes sense to trade him, as much as I like the guy. We could probably get a decent catching prospect, which is honestly a big need for this team.
  5. nytwinsfan
    I guess I don't see why he's not a fit for the Twins (yes, he doesn't play great outfield defense, but that will be the same for any roster), but I guess we do agree that it all depends on what they can get for him. I'm skeptical they can get all that much.
  6. nytwinsfan
    I completely agree with the first paragraph. As for the second, while I'm not absolutely opposed to trading Arcia if the price is right, I guess I'm a little surprised by the willingness of everyone to get rid of him. Who is going to be our DH next year after Sano moves to 3B? Mauer? He's not moving from 1B, sorry. Vargas? Maybe, but he's still a big question mark. Plouffe? No, he makes no sense at DH and should be traded this offseason. Also, where is our LH power going to come from? Vargas? I suppose, maybe. I also think that if Arcia played just DH (and mostly against righties) he might be less likely to get injured as often, also increasing his value. For all his flubs in the outfield and his injuries, Arcia can hit for power, and has the potential to hit better for both average and power. He's still quite young. I just don't think there should be any rush to trade him.
  7. nytwinsfan
    I think we say no first, although maybe the Brewers do to, after thinking about it for a few minutes. Might be different if Lucroy was a 25 yo FA in 2020, not a 29 yo FA in 2017.
  8. nytwinsfan
    Amazing first three.
  9. nytwinsfan
    That's exactly why I went back through the beginning of 2014 for Escobar. In that time he has had 673 PAs.
  10. nytwinsfan
    Let's please leave Escobar at SS for a while and let someone else (Hicks, Rosario, Hunter and Santana as backup) play outfield. Escobar is finally starting to hit again and looks more and more like the SS of the next year or two, if not longer. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, he has an OPS of .713, which is better than all but 7 major league SS during that same period (one of whom is, admittedly, Danny Santana and his bloated BABIP).
  11. nytwinsfan
    Since March, 2014, Eduardo Escobar is hitting .268/.306/.407 (.713) with a WRC of 98 and a wOBA of .312. During that same 1.5 year period, only seven SS have a higher OPS., one of whom is Danny Santana (OPS of .727). During that same 1.5 year period, only nine SS have a higher WRC and wOBA, one of whom is Danny Santana, with a WRC of 102 and a wOBA of .319. So why not Danny Santana over Escobar? Two reasons. Escobar has the better defensive metrics, and Santana has the much higher BABIP (still .370 during that 1.5 year period) and thus even assuming Santana has a higher natural BABIP than Escobar due to his speed, is more likely to continue to regress. So the moral of the story is that although Santana and Escobar struggled during the first two months of the season, there is good reason to think that Escobar can be an average to above average hitting major league SS with average defense. With Santana and Polanco also in the picture, I don't think it makes any sense for the Twins to trade for a SS. If they are going to upgrade somewhere, it should be at Catcher.
  12. nytwinsfan
    He was signed for his glove (and arm), but at 2B. That's the difference. Defense at SS is a totally different animal. That being said, I do tend to agree that people shouldn't read too much into errors in the minors, especially when he only switched to SS in the past two years. Plouffe made tons of errors in the minors and turned into at least an average if not better defensive 3B. I think (some) people are worried not because of the errors, but because of the lack of tools (quickness to get to balls in the gap and especially arm). But I still have hope he can be an average or slightly below average defender at SS.
  13. nytwinsfan
    I am pretty sure everyone agrees that Polanco's hitting upside is superior to Escobar and Santana (well, almost everyone). I think they are worried about his arm and fielding. Santana's fielding hasn't been great, but I think everyone believes he has the tools to be a good SS, even if he hasn't figured out how to use them perfectly yet (honestly not entirely his fault given Gardy using him in CF). Whereas with Polanco, there is concern his tools wouldn't ever enable him to play SS, even when fully developed. That's the difference.
  14. nytwinsfan
    I've heard this many times, but for every time I've heard this I've heard others, including writers on this website, swear that he has a fine arm, or even a "rocket for an arm" or something like that. Unless you are saying his arm is strong enough but just not accurate, then there seems to be quite a bit of disagreement as to how strong Polanco's arm is. I don't know what the answer is, I'm just raising what seems to be the big issue on which there is disagreement. For what its worth, Kiley Mcdaniel ranks his arm as a current 50 (not great for a SS) with 55 potential. 55 is probably enough for SS, although not ideal. Not sure how much observation that is based on.
  15. nytwinsfan
    Trust me, McDaniel understands future ratings and potential way way better than you or me. I am pretty sure those are not ceilings at all, especially for 16 year olds. I'm pretty sure he has explained elsewhere that they are the most likely outcome, and for the total FV (although not for the tools), he discounts some based on age and the concomitant risk (see the last paragraph of this link). Also, those kind of tools for a shortstop are really good. They wouldn't be for a corner outfielder. An average hitting, average power SS (average meaning league average, not position average - an absolutely critical distinction) with plus speed and above average defense is a great asset, and probably a top 100 prospect when he gets to A ball. For instance, McDaniel gives JP Crawford the same tools as Javier, with the exception that JP Crawford has a 55 hit tool rather than a 45+ and a raw power of 50 rather than 50+. Obviously any team would trade the 45+ hit tool and the 50+ power tool of Javier for the 55 hit and the 50 power tool of Crawford, but it just shows you that Javier is not that far away from Crawford, tool wise, and McDaniel ranked Crawford the 10th best prospect in baseball back in February, before a lot of players like Bryant, Buxton, Russell and Correa were called up. It just isn't realistic to expect legitimate SS prospects to have plus plus or even plus hit or power tools. Those with plus plus or plus hit and power tools almost always end up at 3B, 2B or even further down the defensive spectrum. That is why Troy Tulowitzki is Troy Tulowitzki.
  16. nytwinsfan
    Good point. The Escobar June line is the most important IMO. Even when you look at the whole season, he is hitting is fine for a SS (although obviously not for a corner outfielder) If Escobar had enough games at SS, among qualified SS he would be right in the middle of the pack in terms of wOBA (.290).
  17. nytwinsfan
    Agreed on all counts. Would also move Polanco to AAA.
  18. nytwinsfan
    http://dplbaseball.com/featured-post/wander-javier-and-the-twins-seal-a-deal/ http://dplbaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/IMG_1674.jpg
  19. nytwinsfan
    I don't think so. Not unless they trade for more space, which they can do up to almost $ 6 million. I expect them to at least try to do that.
  20. nytwinsfan
    Even if they don't make trades, they can go 5% over without getting really hard penalties (i.e., not being able to sign anyone over $500K next year). But I think Darren Wolfson reported a while back that the Twins were looking to make trades for more space anyway. Here is a primer on the penalties: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/2014-15-international-signing-period-primer.html
  21. nytwinsfan
    And "top 10" is a little misleading. Kiley McDaniel puts him in the top 7, and top 4 among 16 or younger players. The three top ones are actually 18 (Bahamas), 19, and 20 (Cuba), which makes them unfair comparisons. http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2015int&type=0&pos=all Here are the tools for Javier according to McDaniel: Hit Game Power Raw Power Speed Field Arm 20 / 45+ 20 / 45+ 45+ / 50+ 55 / 60 50 / 55 55 / 55
  22. nytwinsfan
    Super excited and happy for Sano. Side note: How crazy/ironic is it that Sano will be called up on the exact same day that the Twins for the first time sign an international player (Javier Wander, SS) for more (expected to be $4 million) than the amount they paid Sano ($3.15 million). Kind of like the changing of the guard for international prospects or something.
  23. nytwinsfan
    How crazy/ironic is it that Sano will be called up on the exact same day that the Twins for the first time sign an international player (Javier Wander, SS) for more (expected to be $4 million) than the amount they paid Sano ($3.15 million).
  24. nytwinsfan
    "Final" slash line for Sano's AA season: .274/.374/.544 (.918).
  25. nytwinsfan
    Or as a team not going over the cap maybe they needed to make a strong starting offer in order to get him to commit early and avoid the Dodgers or Cubs coming in over the top while he considered the Twins offer. That would be my guess.
×
×
  • Create New...