nytwinsfan

Yeah, well let's wait and see. Buxton certainly had the "injury bug" all last year. But he's recovered as well this year.

Thanks for the report. How did Polanco look on defense?

I agree that Kepler would be valuable as a 1B, and that it is great that he has the versatility to play there if needed. But I do think he probably has more value playing mostly corner outfield. I don't think we disagree on this, I just think drivlikejehu's statement was a little too strong in saying that Kepler couldn't ever have value as a 1B. I guess I don't see Hicks or Harrison being a better option in the corner. Harrison doesn't have the same defensive upside as Kepler, and Hicks, while a potential platooner against lefties, doesn't have the offensive upside of Kepler. Walker, if he cuts down on his strikouts and continues to hit the way he is, could potentially make more sense than Kepler, but even then, it might make more sense to move Walker to DH, Vargas or Sano/Plouffe to 1B (assuming Mauer isn't there - but if Mauer is still there this whole debate is sort of moot anyway), and Kepler to the corner. My understanding is that Walker's outfield defense is decent for a man of his size, but that Kepler is faster. Let me know if someone disagrees based on in person experience of watching them play defense. Plouffe and Arcia would be disasters in the outfield on defense. I don't know enough about Sano, and I hear he is athletic and fast for his size, but I have a hard time seeing him as an outfielder. So count me as skeptical of that.

Thanks for acknowledging the point. I have no doubt Kepler would be an excellent defender at 1B. I just think the Twins would get comparatively more value out of that defense in a corner outfield spot. From accounts I've read he can play CF more than adequately, and someone like that in a corner spot would make a plus outfielder, just like Rosario has been a plus corner outfielder. I think Kepler probably has more power potential than Rosario too, once he fills out his giant frame a little more.

Don't understand why we would want to waste Kepler's speed and athleticism at 1B, when he could be a plus corner outfield defender. Yes, those things are valuable at 1B too, but not as much as they are in the outfield. We've all seen how much of a difference strong outfield defense makes these last few weeks, especially with fly ball pitchers like Hughes, May, and Nolasco (and soon Berrios) in the staff. The Twins also have plenty of 1B candidates, from Mauer (hoping he returns to form) to Vargas, to whichever of Sano or Plouffe doesn't stay at 3B. Obviously it would be great if Kepler has the defensive versatility to play 1B at times if necessary, but it seems ridiculous to focus him there. I think the main reasons he's been playing a lot of 1B this year are that Chattanooga until recently had 3 other outfielders, and to give him some time without the risk of reinjuring his wrist/forearm again in the outfield. But he's a future left fielder, and the Twins would be shortsighted to switch him to 1B full time (not that I think they are doing that - I think they know his future is primarily as a strong defensive, average or maybe even above average hitting left fielder).

From the Department of Ridiculous Video Game Stats Occurring In Real Life, Max Kepler is batting .485/.605/.758 (1.363) in his last 10 games and .647/.727/.941 (1.668) in his last 5 games. Overall at Chattanooga he is batting .331/.393/.530 (.923) with 9 SB and 3 CS (75% success rate) and a 23 to 19 K to BB ratio. Also, crazily enough, he has not hit into a single double play in 201 PA. Just saying.

Agreed, he should go back to his old approach. It can't be worse than this (famous last words).

Kepler's power numbers are pretty good (ISO of .193 this year). For comparison, Tori Hunter's career ISO is .185, and Jacques Jones had a career ISO of .172. Now obviously those are majors numbers versus minors numbers, but Kepler is also only 22 and clearly has room to still fill out his 6 foot 4 frame. The point is that there is more to power than home runs, as Byron Buxton is currently demonstrating. Kepler hits a lot of doubles and triples. Kepler also bring other assets to the table, even if his power does end up being below average for a corner outfielder, such as a high OBP, low strikeout rates, good defense for a corner outfielder, and even the ability to steal a few bases.

Kepler could be a top 100 prospect by the end of the year. I think he's more likely to fit there than Gonsalves or Hu.

Don't understand why people think Polanco should play 3B. His problem at SS is mostly the arm, so playing 3B isn't going to help. And unlike SS, we have an excellent 3B and an excellent 3B prospect who is almost ready. As for Sano, I'd like to give him a few more weeks at AA first.

This is a very good point. In theory they could do it . . . and announce it at the end of the regular season, but at that point it would have to be a surprise, which would be tricky and arguably not fair. Plus it would create wierd incentives for the future, so I agree, probably better not to ever do that. A better punishment is draft picks.

I doubt the Astros really did anything technically wrong, because if they did, then why didn't the Cardinals follow legitimate channels to pursue it?

Walker is hitting extremely well, no doubt. But his K rate is up above 35% (noticeably higher than in past years) and unlike Sano (who has a better K rate too), his walk rates are not elite or even good. He is going to need to reduce that K rate if he is going to have any chance of success in the majors. That being said, the power is off the charts, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts even a bit he could be a major leaguer one day.

Kepler was 4 for 5 today, as was Walker. They are both just raking. Imagine an Outfield of Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, and Walker (hitting anywhere close to the way he is now). I still think the jump to the majors is going to be hard for Walker, but boy is there upside.

Nolasco's contract is only guaranteed through 2017. 2018 is an option.

Kepler continues to hit. And he's been racking up the walks lately. Only 3 HRs, but lots of 2Bs and 3Bs, great K and BB rates, and by all accounts great defense, especially for a corner outfielder. Yes, 190 PAs isn't enough to conclude he is a top 100 prospect, but if you look at his 82 PAs in the Arizona Fall League, those were really good too. So he's getting close to half a season worth of PAs of crushing it, especially for a 22 year old who grew up in Germany not playing top-level organizational ball.

I agree, except on the timing. Sano is still making a lot of errors and although his bat is ready, there is a decent chance he would stumble at the plate at first, during what appears to be a pennant race, and Plouffe's bat is also doing really well right now. Better to call Sano up as a DH/pinch-hitter, occasional 3B in blowouts for September, trade Plouffe in the offseason, and then start Sano at 3B next year. That being said, I think Ryan and the Twins organization like Plouffe too much, so I think they will try to move him or Sano to another position. I think that's a bad idea, but I think it is most likely how this plays out (unfortunately).

Thanks. I checked Boyer's stats a little more closely, and his FIP is pretty high (above 4), suggesting you may be right. Fair point. As for Hughes, I really hope you are right, and I do expect him to improve both the second half of this year and next year. I just don't expect him to return to 2014 levels, or honestly near-2014 levels. I found the recent Fangraphs article on this pretty convincing. That being said, I think he could easily be a mid-rotation starter, with periods of more, and I also would LOVE to be completely wrong. For Meyer, I know that about tall, lanky starters, I just think the Twins will probably only give him one more shot to start, so I don't think it is like he is going to be working towards becoming a starter until 2018. Maybe if they kept trying him as a starter until then the chances would be 30-40%, but I think they will only give him one more shot, and then put him into a bullpen roll where he has the chance to be dominant. Overall, sounds like we are 95% on the same page though.

I think the starting outfield of the next few years is Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario, with maybe Walker or Hicks replacing/platooning with Rosario and/or Kepler. But I feel pretty good about those first three as high-likelihood starters. I would be up for trading either of Walker or Hicks or Harrison, if the price is right. I would definitely take Arcia out of the outfield. I think we've all seen what a good outfield defense can bring to the table these last few weeks, and with Buxton that fact is only going to become more apparent. I think Dozier is set at second, and I think Polanco and Escobar will be the SS and utility infielder, although which is which is yet to be seen. Hopefully Polanco improves his defense to the point where he can start at SS and get his bat in the lineup. I have doubts about trading him because I think the market seriously underestimates his value. At 3B, I personally would trade Plouffe after this season and start Sano there. I know many here would not agree with that, and I think Terry Ryan may not either. Assuming Ryan does not, they are either going to (1) move Sano to DH or 1B, which may hurt his long term value, assuming he can't move back to 3B in 2.5 years when Plouffe leaves, (2) move Plouffe somewhere (outfield would be a mistake given the fast young hitters we have coming there, and DH and 1B he would lose a lot of value), or (3) have the two split 3B and DH, which I think is not the Twins style, and would prevent Sano from getting the continuing reps he needs at 3B. I have not given up on Joe Mauer yet at 1B, and I think he can be a decent, and maybe even average 1B. If his play continues to slide -- which I acknowledge is a distinct albeit depressing possibility, then either Vargas or Sano will need to take over. DH will depend on the outcome of all of the above, with possible candidates including Vargas, Arcia (if he reestablishes his bat the 2nd half of this season, and outhits Vargas), Sano, Plouffe, or possibly even Walker. Catcher is the biggest weakness in the organization, and as of now it looks like some combo of Turner, Garver, and maybe Alex Swim will be our future catchers, unless we trade for another one (A. Susac or K. Plawecki would be targets). All three seem solid defensively, with Turner having the best defense and probably the highest overall upside. For the pitching staff, it is not realistic to consider Nolasco part of the future rotation. It is going to be Hughes (who like Mauer we have to hope will be his past self), Santana, May, Gibson, and Berrios. Milone or Nolasco may be 6th options if one of the first five is injured, but Nolasco better get used to working out of the pen assuming one of those five doesn't get injured, and Nolasco doesn't get traded. I see Meyer finishing this year in the pen, and trying one last time to start next year. I give him about a 15% chance of succeeding, in which case we move Santana, May or Hughes to the pen or trade Gibson. Right now May looks like the best of those first three, but that could obviously change if Hughes returns to form of last year or Santana comes out strong. As for the rest of the bullpen, Perkins is a given, and Boyer seems like he may stick, but other than Fein, the rest seems up for grabs. I think some names like Tonkin, Chargois, Z. Jones, Archter, Boozer, and Meyer are going to force the issue soon, and probably some others.

Anyone know why Berrios came out of the Chattanooga game after 3 innings of work with no runs and just 1 hit? Hopefully he just threw 30 pitches in an inning, leading them to automatically pull him, but this makes me nervous.

https://twitter.com/wicks1221/status/609827222208290817

That guy earlier said to trade Sano for Blackmon. He said it straight out. He's entitled to his opinion, but he did say that.

Which are the redundant ones? And don't say Sano.

I already said this in the Max Kepler adopt-a-prospect thread this morning, but I really don't understand why they have Kepler playing 1B. I think that is a mistake. He is hitting as well or better than Harrison, and by all accounts, his outfield defense is better than Harrison (and probably Walker) and his overall value as an outfielder is probably higher than Harrison and Walker (both of whom are legit prospects in their own right and neither of whom I am disparaging). If (big if) Mauer isn't the 1B for the next three years, just hypothetically, someone like Vargas, Plouffe, or Sano probably will be. So I just don't understand the reason for keeping Kepler at 1B. The only things I can think of are (1) that Kepler's outfield defense is so solid that he doesn't need the reps there as much as Harrison, and could diversify his defensive flexibility by learning how to play infield defense, or more likely (2) given his history of recent injuries they want to reduce the chances of another arm injury on a diving catch, at least until he gets the bat going for a significant period of time. But if it is not (2), which I could buy, then I think the Twins organization is making a mistake by not keeping Kepler as primarily an outfielder.

Swim seems to have had a great K rate (less than 10%) each year in the minors, including this one (9.1%) and to have also had a .350 OBP or higher. Although his power is lacking, if he is decent behind the plate I could see him competing for the catching job in two years or so with Stuart Turner. This year his caught stealing rate at Fort Myers has been 27% and in the past two years it has been 25 and 28%. So good, but not great. Turner's rates have been 32, 32, and 30 percent respectively, so better, but not that much better. Anyone know anything more about Swim's defense at catcher, or game-calling ability, things like that? This article suggests his defense is good. If so, maybe Swim should be getting a little more love as a potential prospect?