nytwinsfan

I addressed that above. Arcia has struggled the last week or two and unlike Kepler, he would be a huge downgrade in the outfield. With Sano playing DH, there is really isn't much room for Arcia. That being said, I wouldn't be opposed to calling up Arcia, I just think calling up Kepler is an even better idea, for the reasons explained above.

I just posted a long post answering this question. FYI, Buxton is likely to be out for a few more weeks.

One reason: The Twins are being crushed by right-handed pitching. Anecdotally, if you have been watching games, especially the past two games, this is obvious. But the numbers back it up. 2015 Twins v. LHP: .261/317/.399 (.716) (6th best OPS in the AL) 2015 Twins v. RHP: .245/.298/.395 (.693) (13th best OPS in the AL). The strange thing is that most of this difference is coming from one person. That one person is of course, Aaron Hicks, who currently has the following OBSCENE splits. 2015 Hicks v. RHP: .225 .291 .308 (.599) 2015 Hicks v. LHP: .400 .455 .617 (1.071) Take a look a that. Big splits are nothing new to Hicks, although the extent of this year's splits is particularly ludicrous. Other than Hicks, the only other position player with significant splits in favor of hitting lefties is Dozier (.905 OPS v. LHP and .805 OPS v. RHP), and that is still nowhere near Hicks' splits. Yup, every other position player on the 25-man does better, equally well, or almost as well against righties as they do against lefties, but still the team is overall performing significantly worse against RHP. And this is with Sano having ridiculously positive splits in favor of hitting RHP, which is likely based on a SSS and should not be expected to continue for much longer. Now consider Max Kepler, who basically has no splits at AA (.926 OPS v. righties, .934 OPS v. lefties), and in past years has had positive splits against righties (difference of .44 OPS in 2014, a Hicksian .498 in 2013, and .159 in 2012). You cannot convince me that Max Kepler would not be a huge upgrade over Hicks against right-handed pitching. To be clear, the argument is to call Kepler up tomorrow, and either send down Shane Robinson, or send down a reliever. Then I would split the outfield among Kepler, Hunter, Rosario, and Hicks, with each playing about 3/4 of the time. Hicks would sit against the strongest RHPs, while Kepler would probably sit against the strongest LHP, at least until he gets acclimated and shows his metal against weaker lefties. As for defense, Rosario can cover CF when Hicks is out, as can Kepler from time to time. If the Twins are ahead late in a game that Hicks doesn't start, Hicks can be put in in the 8th or 9th to add extra defense in CF. In summary, the case for calling up Kepler right now is that there is close to no chance that Kepler performs worse against righties than Hicks has and continues to do, and with the luxury of Rosario's speed, the defensive downgrade in CF is likely to be minor when Hicks doesn't start. The potential objections I foresee to this are as follows: (1) Kepler is not ready. But if you look at the second half of his season in the notoriously pitcher friendly Fort Myers last year, his 80 or so PAs in the Arizona Fall League, and the season so far in Chattanooga, he has now been hitting remarkably well for over 600 PAs. This is no longer a small sample size. By all accounts his outfield defense is above average in the corner, and at least passable in CF. The coaches also seem to love him as a player, teammate, and clubhouse presence. And we all know there is a very good chance he gets called up Sept. 1st anyway. Why wait? (2) Chattanooga won the first-half division title and will be in the playoffs, where they will need Kepler. Ok, while I'm all for being supportive of minor league teams, the Southern League playoffs don't start until mid-Sept., and chances are Kepler will be called up on Sept. 1st anyway. And the Lookouts are 14-20 in the second-half standings, in no position to win their division. His absence isn't going to make or break their second half. Finally, I think we can all agree that even a marginal benefit for the major league Twins in a playoff race is well worth reducing the the playoff prospects of the Lookouts. With all due respect to the Lookouts, it just is. (3) Hicks needs at bats against RHP. This is probably the best argument against my proposal. But I still don't buy it. If the Twins were not in a playoff race, this might make sense. But right now Hicks' lack of production from the left-handed side is killing the Twins against righties -- who are almost 2/3 of pitchers they face. And Hicks could still start 1/3 to 2/5 of the games against righties, with Rosario or Hunter taking a break, so that he doesn't get completely rusty against RHP. And that way he's still starting 2/3 to 3/4 of the games and pinch-hitting or pinch-running in most of the rest. (4) Kepler needs to play every day. Ideally, yeah. But the Lookouts season will be over relatively soon and most pitchers in the majors are are righties anyway, so Kepler could be starting 2/3 to 3/4 of the days, and pitch-hitting a good deal of the remainder. (5) The Twins could call up Arcia instead. Maybe two weeks ago I would have considered it, but Arcia is struggling the past two weeks, and unlike Kepler, he has struggled against LHP and constitutes a severe defensive downgrade. (6) Leaving room for Buxton. Buxton's timetable is pretty fluid, but it seems like he will be starting a rehab assignment in a few days and that extended minor league time is expected. It seems unlikely that Buxton would be ready to rejoin the Twins much before Sept. 1st anyway. The Twins will likely call up Kepler on Sept. 1st, but the same reasons that make it a good idea then make it a good idea NOW. And none of the reasonable counter-arguments I mention above are particularly persuasive as a reason to delay his callup until Sept. 1st.

As for what we should do, we should keep Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and Kepler as our four outfielders. We should trade Arcia UNLESS Terry Ryan is ok with trading Plouffe, in which case Arcia could be move to DH and Sano to 3B. I'm not expecting that to happen, however. Arcia should not be allowed anywhere near an outfield.

Everyone needs to stop saying Kepler lacks power. Joe Mauer SLG, 20-yo at AA: .453 Kennys Vargas SLG, 23-yo at AA:. .472 Miguel Sano SLG, 22-yo at AA: .544 Mike Trout SLG, 19-yo at AA: .544 Adam Walker SLG, 22-yo at AA: .546 Max Kepler SLG, 22-yo at AA: .556 Oswaldo Arcia SLG, 21-yo at AA: .557 Sorry to get semantic but "power" does NOT mean Home Runs. It just doesn't. If you want to talk about HR, then talk about HR. But don't call it "power." Or if SLG doesn't do it for you, and you want to be super technical, there is this: Joe Mauer ISO, 20-yo at AA: .112 Kennys Vargas ISO, 23-yo at AA: .191 Mike Trout ISO, 19-yo at AA: .218 Max Kepler ISO, 22-yo at AA: .222 Oswaldo Arcia ISO, 21-yo at AA: .229 Miguel Sano ISO, 22-yo at AA: .270 Adam Walker ISO, 22-yo at AA: .291 Still really good

Hey Jack Goin, can you please explain FIP and xFIP to Terry Ryan? Thanks.

Uggh, they traded Hu. Chin-Wei Hu

Well, the FIPs are not amazing . . . but at least he's an AL pitcher. Jeez. Does the Ray's stadium have a favorable hitter profile (I hope), because his 2014 in LA was much better in terms of FIP and peripherals?

And add to that another 82 PAs in the AFL last fall, where Kepler hit .307/.366/.440 (.806) and he has about 600 PAs of trending straight up.

Well, I completely disagree, but let me point out just one way that Kepler's career has been different than Benson's and Arcia's. Kepler 22-yo K% at AA: 13% Benson 22-yo K% at AA: 27.2% Arcia 21-yo K% at AA: 20.7% Kepler 22-yo BB% at AA: 12.1% Benson 22-yo BB% at AA: 9.2% Arcia 21-yo BB% at AA: 9.4% Kepler 22-yo BB/K at AA: .93 Benson 22-yo BB/K at AA: .34 Arcia 21-yo BB/K at AA: .45 And while Benson was a promising defender, Arcia's defense is much worse than Kepler's. That being said, Benson was a very good prospect who failed (as prospects sometimes do) and I think Arcia is being underrated, and that the Twins should keep Arcia as their DH, trade Plouffe, and move Sano to 3B. But that's another discussion. The larger point is that just because you can pick out a prior prospect with a (somewhat) similar profile that failed, is no basis to hedge against a current prospect. Nearly everyone (probably even Barry Bonds) has a comp prospect that failed.

Jake McGee sounds very interesting. Wouldn't mind him.

I disagree with literally every word. Kepler is nothing like Arcia, except for being a lefty. He has a higher SLG. percentage than Adam Walker right now (yes, seriously.) Kepler's OF D has been declining? What? I have heard only the opposite. And Arcia's OF D has been improving? Where do you get that from?+ Look, I get that HRs are sexy. But really, a lot of doubles and triples will make up for only mediocre HR numbers, which is what Kepler has/will have.

Walker is a year and a half older, which is a pretty big deal for prospects, and Kepler also grew up not playing high quality ball until he was 16, so if anything he is probably behind developmentally relative to American and Dominican minor leagues. And right now Kepler actually has more power than Walker (higher slugging, believe it or not). Power isn't just HRs. It is doubles, triples, and hits. Obviously long term one would expect Walker to have a significantly higher power potential, if he makes contact. But that is a huge huge If. I get it, HRs are sexy. But I think it can be pretty plausibly argued that they are overvalued by teams, and especially by fans. Every point of OBP is worth significantly more than every point of SLG. So not only does Kepler have more doubles/triples power than he is given credit for, he also makes up for it a lot in terms of better OBP and better defense. Nor is there anything about Kepler's injuries that suggests he is particularly "injury prone." When you add the 1.5+ years of additional development for Walker, this isn't even close. Kepler is by far the more valuable prospect.

I tend to agree. I'd like to see Hicks playing corner against lefties and weak righties, and Kepler and Rosario getting the rest of the corner OF starts. Buxton in CF, backed up by Hicks. I dont' know if Arcia makes sense in OF given the other four promising options we have (five if you count Walker). The only place he should be playing is DH, and unless the Twins move Plouffe and put Sano at 3B, I don't really see that happening.

It isn't 100% clear to me he is a better defender than Rosario (or even Kepler), but given that you are probably right, is that added marginal defense worth the drop off in offensive production on days when righties are pitching? Kepler, Rosario, and Arcia would likely all hit significantly better than .651 OPS against righties, and the first two with only marginally worse defense.

So there is basically no question now that Hicks is going to be a big leaguer, either as a CF and/or a platoon hitter against lefties. The question for the Twins, especially with Rosario also heating up, Kepler obliterating AA, and Buxton waiting in the wings, is whether he will hit well enough against righties to be an every day corner outfielder. I know Hicks has a .651 OPS against righties this year, which is fine for a CF, but doesn't really cut it for a corner OF. Does anyone know how to break down splits by month? I'd be interested to hear how Hicks has done against righties the last month or two.

1. No, would keep him in relief. That's too risky. 2. Walker, obviously. By far.

Don't trade Kepler unless someone offers a straight up Ace with control left in future years. Otherwise No no no.

I think you have to weigh more recent track record more heavily. Since the beginning of 2014, Castro is batting .269/.311/.382 (.692) in 975 PAs, while Escobar is batting .265/.303/.400 (.703) in 700 PAs. I'm not as sure about defense, but it seems like Escobar is at least comparable. Given Castro's salary and the need to give up someone to get him, I maintain this makes exactly no sense.

Uggh, no way. Escobar is better than him, and he would be way cheaper going forward. Why would we possibly do this?

No, unless as a coach of some kind. It doesn't make sense. We have at least four good young outfielders knocking on the door (arguably as many as six). Let them develop and use that $10 million to get a very good relief pitcher or two.

Jeebus, could you at least wait until the trade deadline has passed before you freak out? I know this is Dave's style, but this is seriously ridiculous.

Outstanding.

Stuart Turner!!! Keep it up!

I would argue that in the last few years Twins' prospects have provided nearly as much value as acquired veterans, and of course at much less price. And the prospects now are much better than those of the last few years. Veteran FA and trade acquisitions often fail too. Just look at Nolasco, Morales, Stauffer, Suzuki this year, Pelfrey, Doumit, the last 2 years of WIllingham, etc.