nytwinsfan

Compared to .259/.289/.358 for all of last year for Lagares. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And that is actually Sept. and October Thrylos, but whatever, it doesn't matter. The point is still wrong even if you include the two Oct. games.

Buxton's defense is 100% ready, and to the extent his hitting isn't, he just needs to work through it. He's shown he can hit perfectly well at AA and AAA. The only thing left is hitting in the majors. Lagares' OPS over the last three years hasn't exceeded .703 and has averaged .662 the last 3 years. Chances are Buxton is going to exceed that over the entire season, but even if he doesn't, he'll come close. It isn't worth trading a good prospect for Lagares (which is what it would take since he isn't a free agent until 2020.). What you are getting with Lagares is a great defensive, poor hitting CF. We already have one of those. His name is Byron Buxton, and he has massively higher hitting upside. This makes ZERO sense.

3B

Great detailed and thoughtful answers both on the pitching and training strategy stuff and on the rest. I like his attitude as well. Good luck this year.

Yup, 24 and older are exempt from bonus limits. http://www.blessyouboys.com/2015/6/2/8649317/2015-mlb-draft-eligibility-international-players

The press is a lot different now than in 2008. In 2008 lots of people, including in the press didn't even know who the top prospects in the organization were. Now you have prospect-obsessed bloggers and tweeters sniping at Terry Ryan and Molitor and some (admittedly not all) paper writers who are sympathetic to the views of those bloggers/tweeters repeating those criticisms in a more diplomatic form.

I can see that possibly being the case with Kepler, but I don't think so with Berrios. By all accounts they would have brought him up last year but for the innings limits. If he pitches like he did last year the pressure from the fans and press to replace Milone or Nolasco or whoever is going to be immense.

Thylos, I don't always agree with you (see, e.g., regarding Buxton), but I do appreciate you highlighting some of the younger prospects in the DSL and GCL who otherwise we don't really hear much about. And it is useful to hear a unique perspective that seems to be somewhat outside the prospect echo chamber. You also clearly put a lot of effort into this, which I also appreciate.

As a general matter I don't necessarily disagree, but despite his second-half struggles, Dozier has been worth 3.7, 5.2, and 2.4 WAR the last three seasons. Yes, the second half of last year was discouraging but I don't think you can trade Dozier now and expect that it is likely or even probable Polanco will exceed Dozier's expected production in the next year or two. Polanco didn't exactly tear it up last year either. Ideally, Polanco would be a year or two younger with one or two more options, so he could take over for Dozier in 2017 or 18, but it is what it is. Better to see how Dozier does this year, and assuming he is still a 2 WAR or above player, trade Polanco down the stretch to a team that really needs a 2B and get some value for him, and then wait for Gordon or Palacios to take over for Dozier in 2-3 years. That's what I would do anyway.

Here is my prediction: 1. Gordon 2. Jay 3. 2016 First Round Pick 4. Gonsalves 5. Prospect From Plouffe Trade 6. Stewart 7. Javier 8. Palacios 9. L. Wade 10. Vielma 11. Thorpe 12. Melotakis 13. R. Rosario 14. F. Jorge 15. Walker 16. L. Diaz 17. 2016 Second Round Pick 18. Turner 19. Blankenhorn 20. Garver 21. F. Romero 22. Jean Carlos Arias 23. Y. Landa 24. Reed 25. L. Wells I predict Polanco, Palka and Harrison will either be with the Twins (small chance for each) or in another organization (by trade for Polanco, or release for the other two). I predict Meyer, Burdi, Rodgers, and Chargois will be with the Twins and have exhausted their eligibility. I predict Walker, Turner, Melotakis, and Reed will get Sept. call ups, but won't exhaust eligibility.

Agreed. Good idea. We could take one or two college players at the 72 and 74 picks underslot and then go big overslot on the first competitive balance. Alternatively, even without a trade for the first round competitive balance we could try to get a potential 8-14 overall HS player at 16 who has signability issues (if there is such a player this year - hard to say this early) and use the money saved later on, effectively moving up a couple picks.

You talk about relying (in part) on results, but Buxton's results over the last three years include one season with .944 OPS, one season with .867 OPS, and one year of injuries, plus (what even you have to concede) is a tremendously high floor of premium position defense. In contrast, the last three years Meyer had ERAs of 2.99, 3.52 and 4.79 (importantly) in that order, plus horrible BB peripherals which Buxton's mediocre K peripherals are not comparable too. Also, Buxton was a LOT younger comparative to Meyer when he put up those results, even conceding that age is less (although not un-) important for pitching prospects. Finally, has Buxton been unable to hit breaking stuff in the minors? I find that hard to believe, given the numbers he's put up. What is your evidence for that? Buxton's floor (unless he gets seriously hurt) is a gold glove, high SB, mediocre to poor hitting CF. Meyer's is that he never learns to find the strike zone and retires in two years. I actually might agree that Meyer should still be in the top 10, but there is simply no comparison w/ Buxton. You can't take Buxton's very limited play at the majors, including a lot of time overcoming an injury and take away from the above. You just can't.

Meyer may still have the highest upside and best raw stuff, but things like expected value (the area under the curve) and high floor also matter. You do understand that upside is only part of a player's value right and that you have to consider the probability of each outcome?

Nailed it there. Just one more reason (there are several) to trade Plouffe as soon as they can get decent value for him. Obviously different people have different ideas of what "decent value" means in this context.

I was responding to Mike Sixel with that post, not you. You made a good case, even if I don't agree with it.

True in general, but in this case how about responding to my specific evidence-based argument for why it is bizarre and not credible for this projection to systematically and drastically downplay expectations for four key Twins players compared to their actual performances over the last two years?

So for instance, in the two season period of 2014-15, Eduardo Escobar has the 11th best WAR (3.9) among SS in MLB for all SS with more than 500 PAs. In the same period, Dozier has the 3rd best WAR (8.2) in MLB among 2B with over 500 PAs. In that same period, Plouffe has the 13th highest WAR (6.1) in MLB among 3B with over 500 PAs. Rosario has only played one season, but during 2015 he was 13th among WAR (2.3) for LFs in MLB, although keep in mind he only played 122 games. Pro rated to 150 games, that would be closer to 2.8 WAR, or tied for 9th or 10th. So . . . Compare: Performance Projections (yours) Eduardo 11 37 Dozier 3 10 Plouffe 13 25 Rosario 10 35 Notice a pattern? So if projections ranked only one or maybe two of them A LOT lower than their previous years' production, I might buy it based on things like aging (for Plouffe or Dozier) or amazing luck (Escobar) or smaller sample (Rosario). But all four? I just don't buy it. So I think persuasively there is no clear "need" at any of these positions. Moving on, Murphy and Buxton are essentially rookies, as is Park (and likely late-season addition Kepler). All of them with the exception of Murphy have tremendous potential, and I think we have to give them a sustained chance. Sano is going to be fine, and then some. Mauer at 1B I buy is a "need," and assuming he doesn't back bounce from the concussion (which could happen) I'd be fine with finding a replacement for him in the starting lineup, except . . . yeah, that's not going to happen. So there is a need, but it is a need that is never going to be filled, Period. As for pitching, Gibson is good (as your projections concede) and Duffey absolutely deserves a shot after last year's fantastic performance. I think Duffey's projections discount him in part because they don't think the Twins will start him (and they might not), assuming you are using FGs. And although I'd be fine replacing Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, or Milone, the first two are locked in because of contracts (regardless of whether you agree with the idea that veterans with large contracts should be "locked in") and if we need another starter, it should be Berrios or May, who like Buxton, Park, Kepler, have enormous potential. So I argue for all practical purposes there is no "need" at starting pitcher either. The only positions where there is a need are relief pitcher and arguably catcher. But right or wrong, they just traded for Murphy, and they beleive in him, so they are going to give him a shot. So where is the "need" other than at relief pitcher? And even there, by the second half to the end of this season there will likely be a lot of very nice internal options.

Let's see how those four do based on track record over the last two years, not projections. Projections have a place in analysis, but they've been wrong about those four guys for a few years now.

Oh really, 3B is a need? We have two above average players, one with All Star potential, but it is a "need?" OK THEN. And yes, Sano has a position. It is 3B, and he has played it adequately for years in the minors. We won't know for sure if he can play it adequately at the major league level until he's given a chance to do it for quite a while, and he hasn't had that opportunity, but nothing, not his physique, his arm, or his athleticism suggests he can't play it. But other than 3B, I think we are mostly just having a semantic argument. To me, "need" was catcher until they got Murphy. Now we have an average or slightly below average catcher. To me, that isn't a "need." It is an opportunity for an upgrade, to be sure, but not a "need."

Other than Relief Pitcher, what needs? Starter? No, we have a logjam. Outfield? No, we have a logjam. Corner Infield? No, we have a logjam? Catcher? No, the Twins are going with Murphy in the medium run. Sure, we could upgrade at quite a few of these positions (most notably catcher), but other than relief, the Twins don't really have any "needs."

Yes, that is the definition of dominating. Having a .944 OPS between A and A+ as a 19 yo is abso****inglutely dominating. Similarly, having a .867 OPS between AA and AAA as a 21 yo after a year of being plagued by injuries is dominating. So TWO years of dominating and one year of injuries.. Also, comparing him to Vargas? Really. The closest Vargas ever came to doing something like what Buxton did in either of those two years was a .910 OPS over 302 PAs in AA and AAA as a 24 yo. Yes, you just compared Buxton, a CF with elite speed and defense, to a good DH prospect (who wasn't coming off a year of injuries) who did slightly better offensively when he was 3 years older. OK then. Buxton cannot hit a good breaking ball in about a quarter of a year of trying after a year of being plagued by injuries and after being rushed to the majors, not "period." In summary:

Hope that "very soon" means January 1st. :-) Can't wait.

Here is more on why 2016 is the Year to Break Your International Bonus Pool: http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2016-year-break-international-bonus-pool/ I'd like to see the Twins just go nuts and drop $50-$60 million (counting the taxes/penalties) on one of the big three (Armenteros, Maitan, Gutierrez) plus another big signing or two and a bunch of smaller name guys. Sure, that's a lot, but the upside could be huge, and this is the year to do it.

This entirely depends on whether the Twins go (way) over their allotted bonus this year. If they are every going to do it, this is the year to do it with two or three of the biggest international young prospects available in years. This International year is supposed to be the equivalent of the 2010 amateur draft. Plus a lot of big teams (Yankees, R Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Angels) are out of the running for the big names, and it is the first year in years that the Twins don't have a lot of money, so more marginal benefit to going over, AND it is right before the new CBA, so teams that go over this year MIGHT (only might) get away with only 1 years of penalties, although still likely they will get two years of penalties, whether as currently, or if MLB goes to an international draft, then two years of first round draft picks. In addition to Armenteros, you have Venezuelan SS Kevin Maitan and Venezuelan C Abraham Gutierrez. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/

All stats from 2015 unless otherwise stated. 1. Berrios (expectations + gut feeling) 2. Duffey (3.24 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.83 SIERA) 3. May (3.35 FIP as starter, 3.96 xFIP as starter, 3.53 SIERA (starter & reliever)) 4. Gibson (3.96 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 4.12 SIERA) 5. Santana (4.17 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 4.43 SIERA) 6. Nolasco (3.51 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA, injury concerns, small sample from last year, if not 100% healthy, move him to 8). 7. Hughes (4.70 FIP, 4.30 xFIP, 4.39 SIERA, have to consider 2014 performance/upside to put ahead of Milone, but if not 100% healthy, I'd switch with Milone) 8. Milone (4.30 FIP, 4.22xFIP, 4.39 SIERA) The crazy thing is how much Nolasco has underperformed his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, not just last year, but the last two years. If he's healthy, give him a shot to start. That is not how I went into this exercise, but after looking at the numbers, I think it is worth trying (IF he is 100% healthy). The last four are all pretty close. Depending on the health of Hughes and Nolasco, I could see any of the four being the fifth starter. While I would absolutely have the first four in the rotation (well, I'd wait until May or June for Berrios b/c of service time), I think, b/c the last four are otherwise pretty close, Hughes and Santana might actually do better in the bullpen, where their fastballs could possibly play up. Milone might end up being the fifth starter then, especially if Nolasoco is hurt. I just don't think Milone should be the fifth starter as a replacement for May.