nytwinsfan

Yeah, I'd pass. I'm not a big fan of trading the entire farm system for one or two years of very marginally higher chances of winning the WS. Once you are in the playoffs, with 7, 5 or even 1 game series, it is pretty much a crapshoot which team wins the WS. Strategically trading a blocked prospect here or there to improve your short-term chances of making the playoffs at all and (simultaneously) very marginally improving your odds in the playoffs makes some sense to me in the right circumstances, but prematurely cutting off a contender window you might have continued for a number of years by selling the farm to increase your chances of winning the World Series from 13% to 15% in one or two years just isn't worth it. Better to have that 13% for a couple more years. I know others disagree.

Trevor May. But to be fair, it is more Nolasco/Milone who are blocking May, not Hughes/Santana.

I for one am not looking forward to Sano playing OF. I just really really hope he doesn't hurt himself running into a wall or diving awkwardly. Hopefullly half or more of his games will be at DH, 1B, or 3B filling in for one of the other three until a contender's 3B starts slumping or gets injured and we find a trading partner for Plouffe.

1. Buxton - CF 2. Kepler - LF 3. Sano - 3B 4. Park - 1B 5. Arcia - DH 6. Dozier - 2B 7. Rosario - RF 8. Murphy - C 9. Escobar - SS Bench - Turner, Mauer, Walker, Polanco I admit there is a decent chance Arcia won't make it here, and Mauer will be DH'ing instead. Also, I'm not sure Polanco will be around, unless Escobar or Dozier has a serious injury before he has been traded.

This sucks. Really. May should be in the rotation. Full Stop.

But this begs the question, why would you ever ever not start your best five starting pitchers? One answer, that applies only to Berrios, is service time. That make sense to me. I get it. If he is up in late May or early June or whatever, I will have no grudge. But Duffey and May are clearly (and I mean CLEARLY) better starting pitchers than Milone and Nolasco. There is no doubt about it. None. Zippo. Nada. So why even have Nolasco and Milone start one day? Sure, you can say it is only one game, or two games, or three (however long the "opening day ration" lasts). But playoff spots are determined by one or two games ALL THE TIME. So again, other than service time, why would you not start your best 5 starting pitchers? May is very good out of the bullpen, but he is also very good as a starter, and it isn't like Molitor will be using him in only high leverage situations, and even then, the chances that he would be worth more out of the bullpen are negligible. Nolasco and Milone refuse to pitch out of the bullpen? Who cares. They are paid millions of dollars to do what the coach says, not to be spoiled brats. Say what you will about Mauer, but he plays when and where the coaches tell him, because he's a team player that does what the coaches think is best for the team. If Nolasco doesn't want to pitch out of the bullpen, then he shouldn't get paid. I don't know what happens under the CBA when a player refuses to play where the coach tells them, but it should be that they don't get paid/get fined. I'm not against depth at SP. That is a different question. We shouldn't get rid of all three of Gibson, Nolasco, and Milone at the start of the season, or even two of them. But that is a different question than who should be starting, and it seems pretty clearly uniquivocal that the only reason not to start Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Duffey is for Terry Ryan or others to save face on a contract that turned out poorly, or to avoid ugliness because Nolasco is a spoiled baby, or because the Twins have a strange obsession with needing to have at least one lefty in the rotation. And those are all crap reasons. With the exception of service time considerations, start the best five pitchers, PERIOD. Everything else is just bull crap. RANT OVER.

I agree with Seth about the bullpen and what the rotation likely will be, but I think not giving May a chance to start is a huge huge mistake in terms of what it should be. Gibson is a solid #4, and Milone is a borderline #4/#5, but May is a likely #3 with #2 upside and #4 downside. I'd start May over Milone. Assuming no injuries to any of the other starters, I'd start Nolasco in AAA to "get back up to speed", put Milone in the long relief role, and then trade him as soon as someone needs a serviceable lefty starter. Then when you trade Milone, bring Nolasco up from AAA to the long relief role. At some point, if Berrios is ready, there are no injuries, and everyone else is pitching well (which admittedly is unlikely, given the way starting pitching goes) I would also consider trading Gibson if the return is good. Do I think the Twins will do any of that? Almost certainly not.

Same. A starting five of Santana, Hughes, Duffey, May and Berrios, (especially if Hughes is somewhere between his 2014 and 2015 self, which seems possible) could be a top 5-10 rotation in the MLB. No ace, for sure, but possibly four or even five #3s, and possibly one or two #2s. That's a very solid rotation. Already last year, based on xFIP, the Twins rotation was pretty solid. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2015-visualized-starting-pitchers/

Yup, here we go again. Three of the best five starters are in the "depth" column to start the season. Hurray! Seriously though, if those five are the starting rotation come June I'm going to jump off a bridge.

Sorry but Fernandez is not happening. It just isn't. Give up.

I choose to conclude from the fact that one of you thinks the Twins shouldn't do it and the other thinks the Rays wouldn't do it, that my suggestion is somewhere around what it would take for the Twins to do it if both sides were interested.

Yes, please, but it would depend on how much they want for him. Polanco plus . . . Stewart? Who says no first?

Unless Suzuki is hitting much much better than last year, we would have to pay another team to take him, given his $6 M contract.

I was not saying anything particular about the Chicago trade, just DaveW's claim that he was a better or more valuable player than Plouffe. I continue to completely disagree with that claim. I do think Castro has some upside left in him, I also just think there is a very good chance that the 2015 or (worse) 2013 version of him shows up, whereas Plouffe's floor is much higher.

Castro has been terrible 2 of the last 3 years, and has been worth about 2 WAR during that three-year period. I don't think it is plausible to say that he is better than someone who has been worth 8 WAR during that same period. You have to weigh the last 2-3 years more heavily than the overall career, even if Castro is younger. Even if I agree that Castro probably has more upside, his expected value is substantially lower.

I'm all for giving Meyer, Burdi, Rodgers, Chargois, Reed, Tonkin, and O'Rourke a chance. But I agree that if they do add anyone it should be lefty.

Speaking of the devil: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/this-is-grainy-footage-of-miguel-sano-homering-minutes-ago/ Love the outstretched left arm and bat, but he should have held it out there for a few moments longer. Next time. BTW, my intuition just tells me that Sano and Park are going to get along great. I can feel it.

That was a great interview. Interesting stuff.

Yeah, other than smoking weed, which btw is legal in a number of states and likely will be legal everywhere soon, I've never heard complaints about Rosario's makeup. I generally like KLaw, but that is kind of lazy analysis.

Wow, he's pretty high on Kepler.

You must be new here.

Wait, are you talking about the same Arcia that has a career OPS of .741 as a 24-year-old and had OPS's of .734, .752, and .718 (with a very small sample size of 65 PAs) during his 22 yo, 23 yo, and 24 yo seasons, respectively? His only "blunder" at the major league level (besides a couple defensive plays) has been getting injured. Is that what you are talking about? I am a huge believer in Kepler, but given the service-time considerations for him, the fact that he has not played a single game in AAA, and the fact that Arcia is out of options but still has huge upside, I think it would be really stupid to call up Kepler on May 1st, unless (1) Arcia is floundering at the plate, (2) Kepler is tearing AAA a new one, and (3) an OF of Buxton, Sano, and Rosario is not playing really well.

Arcia or Rosario, or less likely (to start the year), Kepler.

Some people are saying he is "lying to get leverage." Other people with more nuanced, thoughtful views -- which I think is the majority on this site btw -- are saying that Ryan is emphasizing one absolutely true fact, that his current default plan is to start Plouffe at 3B and move Sano to RF, while not ruling out another mutually compatible fact, that if someone makes a good offer for Plouffe, he will pull the trigger and move Sano to 3B. That is not "lying for leverage" but it is emphasizing some facts and omitting or avoiding answering questions about others to (maybe) gain leverage. I'm an attorney (feel free to respond with lawyer jokes -- they don't bother me), so to me there is a huge difference there. The former is dishonest, the latter, in the context of a competitive environment (team v. team, or business v. business, not spouse v. spouse or friend v. friend) is not.

Yeah, literally that is correct, but most baseball writers use the phrase "free agency in 2017" to mean a free agent for (or before) the 2017 season. At least that is my understanding.