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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    I remember reading this two years ago, before Buxton showed he had the hit tool that BA just ranked a 70, and this portion in particular stood out as being prophetic about his hit tool (and overall ability): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/like-aaron-hicks-buxton-will-require-patience/ "Buxton’s hand eye coordination is worth mentioning as well. One advantage of arriving at the park four hours before first pitch is the ability to observe everything. In Elizabethton, young Twins players emerged from the locker room early to play a game. The game began with them standing in a circle with a ball in each hand. Then, a round of pseudo-juggling would ensue with players quickly passing a ball to free a hand to catch an incoming ball. When a ball was dropped, the player was out. Watching Buxton dominate the game was a thing to behold. In a test of peripheral vision, hand speed and hand eye coordination, the teenage phenom was infallible and far above a handful of teammates considered to be legitimate prospects in their own right."
  2. nytwinsfan
    Absolutely. Sano's OPS has a higher upside, no question, but Buxton's overall value has a higher upside.
  3. nytwinsfan
    Agreed, outfield is not crowded, but on the other hand, the lack of quality defensive OFs is all the more reason Sano should not be playing there.
  4. nytwinsfan
    Ok, sure, no need to trade Plouffe right this second. But Arcia has already had 1.5+ years and Vargas .5 years of performing at this level. Do we wait more than late this summer to see if they continue to hit? And as for Sano, how do we see if he can perform (I assume you mean defensively) at 3rd with Plouffe there? Sure, we can put Plouffe in the outfield in late summer while Sano gives 3rd a try, but by then Rosario and maybe Buxton will be up. And is a month or two of Sano at 3rd enough to know with much certainty whether he will succeed there? He likely won't be as good as his defensive potential there right away. I'm all for trying those things out, and getting as much info as possible, but at some point the coaches are going to have to make a decision on whether they think Sano is going to be an adequate defensive third baseman, and if they think he is, then the decision to trade Plouffe (and if he continues to be a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, then for substantial value) seems like a no-brainer to me.
  5. nytwinsfan
    Ok, so who do you take out of the regular lineup then when Sano is ready? Arcia? Mauer? Vargas? Do you put him in the other corner outfield spot with Arcia and make the Twins outfield the worst outfield defense in the history of baseball (only sort of exaggerating). Yes, Sano is fast for his size, but the guy weighs 245+. There is no way he is going to be even an average outfield defender. It's a matter of physics. So where do you play Sano then if you keep Plouffe at 3rd?
  6. nytwinsfan
    I think the Twins trade Plouffe when Sano is ready. Maybe give Plouffe a little time in the outfield if Rosario and Buxton are not ready when Sano is, but Sano is the 3rd baseman of the future. Yes, Sano is good enough that you'll always find him somewhere to play. No question. The reason to put him at 3rd is not to find him somewhere to play, it is so that you can keep Mauer, Vargas, and Arcia in the lineup (and later Minier or Diaz at 1st base). Plouffe is a valuable player, and I like the guy personally, but most of his future value to the Twins will be in a trade. It just makes no sense otherwise.
  7. nytwinsfan
    Great article Seth. Hopefully the Twins let Sano and Buxton decide their own destinies.
  8. nytwinsfan
    May would definitely be my first choice. His last couple starts were encouraging, and certainly enough to give him the first shot as the fifth starter. I have a bad feeling though that it will be Milone, or even worse, Pelfrey. If May doesn't start as the 5th starter, I hope they at least put him in the bullpen.
  9. nytwinsfan
    Philly won't do that, at least without us picking up the full tab for Hamels' salary. I might have considered it before signing Santana, but it makes no sense now.
  10. nytwinsfan
    Uggh, both of these were bad deals. Should have gone with a 1-year rental for Brett Anderson instead of Santana. Hope I'm wrong.
  11. nytwinsfan
    If ranking prospects was done entirely on upside, Meyer would have to be third, if not second. But, of course, it isn't, which makes sense. I agree with Nick that Meyer needs to be in the majors by sometime in May, if only in relief.
  12. nytwinsfan
    Of relevance to Polanco (remember, the guy this thread is supposed to be about?), it seems he did really really well in Winter Ball: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/baseballist-dozen-players-monitor-big-winter-ball-performances/ A future middle-infield fixture for the Twins, Polanco showed the broad set of skills—feel to hit, gap power, strike-zone discipline—in the DL that make him a top prospect. Perhaps just as significantly, he played only one game at shortstop for Escogido, while spending most of his time as the double-play partner for former Twins shortstop Pedro Florimon. AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OBP SLG .326 23 89 12 29 4 3 1 6 12 15 3 .412 .472
  13. nytwinsfan
    I agree with Shane. First, the farm system is plenty strong, and will be even after Buxton, Sano, and Meyer are in the big leagues. Second, if we flip Polanco, it should be in another year or two when we know what we have in Santana, Dozier (who is, let's face it, old for a 3rd-year player) and Gordon for that matter, and what we need to become a contender (catcher, defensive outfielder, fourth starter, etc.). Third, Polanco just came off a rough patch in AA, so now we would be trading at his nadir. Let's at least let him regress (upwards) to his ability. Fourth, in 2016 or 17, whenever Polanco gets to the big leagues, he'll have plenty of time to play. A utility infielder gets a lot of starts, and injuries happen. Polanco is also, by all accounts, a focused guy with great makeup, so I'm sure he can handle playing as a utility infielder and not playing every day until someone inevitably gets injured. The value of having Polanco rather than Nunez as our utility infielder (and a pinch hitter/runner) is significant. Escobar is more a trade candidate in my opinion, especially if he comes close to his performance last year.
  14. nytwinsfan
    Completely agree.
  15. nytwinsfan
    Hopefully Rosario won't be there long, not only because I hope he will be in the majors (that too), but because Kepler should be playing defense in the outfield, which is where his future is.
  16. nytwinsfan
    Agreed, and control might be a good reason for putting him below Berrios and/or Stewart, but control can be developed later in a career, especially for a taller pitcher, and so I don't think that undermines his upside, which I agree is higher than Berrios and Stewart. I don't think most scouts would disagree Meyer has the most upside. They just think he doesn't have the most expected value, which is probably true.
  17. nytwinsfan
    Meyer seems like a great, level-headed guy. I also still think he has the best chance of becoming an ace of any of our prospects, Berrios and Stewart included, but obviously I'm still not "expecting" him to become an ace. And if starting doesn't work, just imagine a bullpen in late 2016 that has Perkins, Meyer, Burdi, and Reed. I wouldn't want to be losing to the Twins after the sixth inning going against that bullpen, that's for sure.
  18. nytwinsfan
    Seriously. So sick of this.
  19. nytwinsfan
    Don't a lot of pitchers develop a changeup in their lower 20s? And isn't a curveball generally considered easier to learn than a changeup (hence why most pitchers learn the changeup later)? I'm genuinely asking, as I don't really know much about pitcher development.
  20. nytwinsfan
    My understanding is that both his fastball and changeup are solid, just not his curveball.
  21. nytwinsfan
    That's certainly a fair point, but on the other side Kepler came from a non-baseball country, and hasn't been playing the game against the same quality of competition as long. He's also dealt with quite a lot of injuries, which arguably have not allowed his potential to fully show. So his ceiling may be higher than we realize.
  22. nytwinsfan
    I've read elsewhere that Gonsalves' problem is primarily with his breaking ball, not his fastball/change/command, which are all average or plus. For instance, this from a year and a half ago notes his "below average curveball": http://www.twinkietown.com/draft-coverage/2013/6/18/4442030/stewart-gonsalves-in-minnesota Similarly, Keith Law just said a few days ago that "Stephen Gonsalves (18) pitched well at two levels -- his last start of the year pushed his low-A ERA up by over a run -- but still doesn't have even a fringy breaking ball to go with his plus split-change." Similarly, Kiley McDaniel discussed his "below average curveball." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-minnesota-twins/ The good news is (at least based on my limited understanding) that usually it is control/command and changeup that are the limiting factor for a starter, not a decent breaking ball. So Gonsalves and the Twins' pitching coaches ought to be able to develop his breaking ball to be at least serviceable.
  23. nytwinsfan
    Yes, I think so, but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised by those numbers.
  24. nytwinsfan
    Fair enough, but Butera has a major league career OPS of .505. :-) True, he had a minor league OPS of only .607, compared to Turner's minor league OPS of .707 so far, but Butera's OPS was better than that through A+ as well. In fact, Butera's OPS in the Florida State League was a .765. I think Turner will likely end up being a better hitter than Butera, and if he is a league average hitter for catcher, that would be fine with his defense. But that's not a given at all .
  25. nytwinsfan
    With Vargas, Pinto, Mauer, and maybe Sano at 1st Base/DH, where do we see Minier and Diaz playing in 2018-20? Yes, I know it is not exactly the most pressing issue, and the Twins could probably trade one or more if we end up having the problem of too many slow, power bats, but it is worth considering. Also, Turner has the floor of a major league backup catcher, but whether he is good enough to start will depend on whether or not he hits like Butera. I'm not at all convinced he will be an adequate starting catcher in 2017. When it does come time for the Twins to flip Plouffe, Escobar, or even Dozier later this year or next, I'd like to see them do it for a higher-ceiling catching prospect.
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