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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    Yup, Sano's K% is his standard fare, his BB% is actually better than his previous rates, and his ISO is only marginally below previous seasons' ISOs. HIS BABIP of .156 is mostly what is dragging him down. That could be bad luck or it could be rust leading to fewer line drives and well hit fly balls, or probably, some of both. Sano will be fine, but the fact that Plouffe is raking gives the Twins all the more reason not to rush him at this point. In fact, if we had to pick Buxton or Sano to struggle, Sano is obviously preferable given how well Plouffe is playing. Robinson is much more likely to regress significantly than Plouffe.
  2. nytwinsfan
    Holy crap, not one but TWO showoff doubles for Buck!
  3. nytwinsfan
    Buxton seems absolutely locked in the last 7-8 games. Not sure what the "adjustments" were that Doug Mientkiewicz made around then, but boy are they working.
  4. nytwinsfan
    In the long run I think Hicks is going to be at least a partial platoon player, where Molitor tries to limit his exposure against strong RHP. But the good news is we have plenty of left-handed OF options, including Arcia, Schafer, Rosario and Kepler here or on the way. And Rosario and Kepler are guys with some positional flexibility.
  5. nytwinsfan
    In his last 8 games, Buxton has batted .286/.444/.464 (.909) with 8BB, 1K, and 6 SB (0 CS). And that is despite a dismal .269 BABIP.
  6. nytwinsfan
    Yeah, Buxton's BABIP ( currently.250) is also quite low, especially for someone with his speed. He was above a .400 BABIP for all of 2013. Obviously it is unrealistic to expect someone to have a BABIP above .400 at higher levels, even if they have an 80 grade speed tool and hit a lot of line drives, but the low BABIP either means he is really not squaring up the ball and hitting a lot of popups and grounders, or he is getting really unlucky. Probably it is some of both. The low strikeouts and high walks the last 8 games (2K/7BB) is really very encouraging.
  7. nytwinsfan
    If May gets sent back to AAA I will cry. It needs to be either Nolasco or Milone that is the odd man out, preferably Nolasco.
  8. nytwinsfan
    Also good points. All of that being said, I'm not against extending Plouffe if the price is reasonable and would still enable the Twins to trade him for good value.
  9. nytwinsfan
    The following is (obviously) an overly simplistic hypothetical, and the numbers are speculative and probably off. The point is not to state "the truth" or "the fact of the matter," but to show my reasoning above in more concrete terms. Feel free to challenge any assumptions or try your own hypothetical that better fits your assumptions. But the following is why I think the Twins would probably be best off trading Sano (or more likely, assuming Sano can stay at 3B) Plouffe. Sano (at 3B): -0.5 Defensive WAR 4 Offensive WAR .5 Positional WAR Total 4 WAR Sano (at DH) O Defensive WAR 4 Offensive WAR -1 Positional WAR Total 3 WAR Plouffe (at 3B): 1.5 Defensive WAR 1.5 Offensive WAR .5 Positional WAR Total 3.5 WAR Plouffe (at Corner OF): .5 Defensive WAR 1.5 Offensive WAR 0 Positional WAR Total 2 WAR In other words Sano and Plouffe are both worth more at 3B than at their second-best position. This is their “opportunity cost” of playing 3B. Say the Twins have someone who is providing only 1 WAR in a corner outfield spot (say, I don’t know Arcia or Hunter) or 2 WAR at DH (I don’t know, say Vargas). Why not trade Plouffe for a 2.5 WAR corner outfielder or Sano for a 3.5 WAR DH (more likely the former)? Some team out there probably will get enough marginal value out of Sano or Plouffe at 3B to make that trade worthwhile.* Everyone wins. The 1.5 WAR upgrade for the Twins provides more value than putting Plouffe in a corner outfield position or Sano at DH. * All it would take for the Plouffe trade scenario to make sense for that team is for that team to have a back-up corner outfielder worth 2 WAR and a starting 3B worth only 2.5 WAR or a back-up corner outfielder worth 1.5 WAR and a starting 3B worth only 2 WAR.
  10. nytwinsfan
    To where? DH? Why have two very good players capable of providing their maximum value at 3B on the same team (yes, assuming that continues to be the case for Sano)? Unless other teams are systematically undervaluing both of them, why not trade one of them? It doesn't make sense to keep them both, because one or the other is worth more to another team than to the Twins, and thus the Twins should be able to get back more in value than they are giving up, given that 3B is occupied. I tend to think Plouffe is the one to trade, but I agree we should wait a bit longer to make sure Sano is fully capable of playing 3B after his arm injury. Even if Plouffe is the better defender than Sano, if Sano can play even an adequate 3B his hitting + positional value there probably makes him a more valuable third baseman.
  11. nytwinsfan
    Fantastic. Thanks!
  12. nytwinsfan
    I assume you mean "checked" with someone in the know in the Twins organization or another journalist who has that connection? Can we infer that the Twins are looking at/considering Aiken closely then? Or is it just the normal due diligence they do on every top player?
  13. nytwinsfan
    I do though, especially in this weak draft where Tate will be off the board by 6.
  14. nytwinsfan
    Has anyone seen the readings on the gun for Gonsalves' fastball the last three starts?
  15. nytwinsfan
    That photo of Gonsalves in the dugout is awesome.
  16. nytwinsfan
    Seth, is there a list of all the prospects that have been taken? Nevermind, just realized the Forums list for adopt-a-prospects is pretty much that.
  17. nytwinsfan
    I noticed that Brady Aiken favorited Seth's tweet on Gonsalves' great start today. I looked it up and they went to the same high school (Cathedral Catholic). I wonder if that could help somewhat with getting Aiken to sign if the Twins were to take him at 6. Aiken is on record as saying part of the reason he didn't go to Houston was more than just the money, but that his family didn't feel comfortable with them. The Twins, who paid Gonsalves over slot and took him after some disciplinary issues in high school, could look like a good fit to Aiken, especially if Gonsalves speaks highly of the system.
  18. nytwinsfan
    I'm pretty sure Jeremy will say No, and Yes to those two questions.
  19. nytwinsfan
    Well, you have to go BPA, but that being said, if you think two players left on the board are equally valuable, I would agree with you that the Twins should look for an outfielder. Ian Happ is probably the only college player to fit the bill, but Kyle Tucker would fit from HS. Jeremy didn't mention him, but Trenton Clark is another outfielder with maybe a little less power but with the hit tool and more speed/defense. He's also been said to have superb makeup, which honestly should matter on the margins. Most projections I've seen put him mid-first round, not early, so unless the Twins are really high on him, probably unlikely. More likely would be Happ or Tucker.
  20. nytwinsfan
    Because Tate will be off the board by 6, that pretty much limits it to Aiken and maybe Matuella, both of whom are having TJ surgery. I might be ok with that if it turns out Aiken's elbow just needs routine TJ, but otherwise I'd say no and go with a position player.
  21. nytwinsfan
    Ian Happ!!!
  22. nytwinsfan
    Doesn't look like anyone adopted Jorge Fernandez as a prospect. That's a shame. I might do it if nobody else does.
  23. nytwinsfan
    Totally agreed, except for Gibson, who I think should be given a much longer leash.
  24. nytwinsfan
    Wow, as depressing as yesterday's major league game was, the combined minor league teams' performances were equally exhilarating.
  25. nytwinsfan
    http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmemegenerator.net%2FWhy-Not-Both-Girl&ei=9jMtVe_mGdPrggTPpISIBw&bvm=bv.90790515,d.eXY&psig=AFQjCNEoniBahhir-557jnWQEysdhB3abQ&ust=1429112181214350 Combination of bad decisions (Hunter, Nolasco, Boyd, Stauffer, Robinson, etc.) and bad luck (Santana, high opponent BABIP, low Twins' BABIP, etc.)
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