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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    Not upset at all. It would have been great to get a better reliever than Jepsen, but not if it meant giving up Polanco or Kepler for 1 and 1/2 years of control of a slightly upgraded reliever.
  2. nytwinsfan
    Is Palacios really 145 pounds? That must be an old listing for a guy hitting with his power, no? If not, that is ridiculous.
  3. nytwinsfan
    As for what we should do, we should keep Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and Kepler as our four outfielders. We should trade Arcia UNLESS Terry Ryan is ok with trading Plouffe, in which case Arcia could be move to DH and Sano to 3B. I'm not expecting that to happen, however. Arcia should not be allowed anywhere near an outfield.
  4. nytwinsfan
    Everyone needs to stop saying Kepler lacks power. Joe Mauer SLG, 20-yo at AA: .453 Kennys Vargas SLG, 23-yo at AA:. .472 Miguel Sano SLG, 22-yo at AA: .544 Mike Trout SLG, 19-yo at AA: .544 Adam Walker SLG, 22-yo at AA: .546 Max Kepler SLG, 22-yo at AA: .556 Oswaldo Arcia SLG, 21-yo at AA: .557 Sorry to get semantic but "power" does NOT mean Home Runs. It just doesn't. If you want to talk about HR, then talk about HR. But don't call it "power." Or if SLG doesn't do it for you, and you want to be super technical, there is this: Joe Mauer ISO, 20-yo at AA: .112 Kennys Vargas ISO, 23-yo at AA: .191 Mike Trout ISO, 19-yo at AA: .218 Max Kepler ISO, 22-yo at AA: .222 Oswaldo Arcia ISO, 21-yo at AA: .229 Miguel Sano ISO, 22-yo at AA: .270 Adam Walker ISO, 22-yo at AA: .291 Still really good
  5. nytwinsfan
    Uggh, they traded Hu. Chin-Wei Hu
  6. nytwinsfan
    And add to that another 82 PAs in the AFL last fall, where Kepler hit .307/.366/.440 (.806) and he has about 600 PAs of trending straight up.
  7. nytwinsfan
    Well, I completely disagree, but let me point out just one way that Kepler's career has been different than Benson's and Arcia's. Kepler 22-yo K% at AA: 13% Benson 22-yo K% at AA: 27.2% Arcia 21-yo K% at AA: 20.7% Kepler 22-yo BB% at AA: 12.1% Benson 22-yo BB% at AA: 9.2% Arcia 21-yo BB% at AA: 9.4% Kepler 22-yo BB/K at AA: .93 Benson 22-yo BB/K at AA: .34 Arcia 21-yo BB/K at AA: .45 And while Benson was a promising defender, Arcia's defense is much worse than Kepler's. That being said, Benson was a very good prospect who failed (as prospects sometimes do) and I think Arcia is being underrated, and that the Twins should keep Arcia as their DH, trade Plouffe, and move Sano to 3B. But that's another discussion. The larger point is that just because you can pick out a prior prospect with a (somewhat) similar profile that failed, is no basis to hedge against a current prospect. Nearly everyone (probably even Barry Bonds) has a comp prospect that failed.
  8. nytwinsfan
    Jake McGee sounds very interesting. Wouldn't mind him.
  9. nytwinsfan
    I disagree with literally every word. Kepler is nothing like Arcia, except for being a lefty. He has a higher SLG. percentage than Adam Walker right now (yes, seriously.) Kepler's OF D has been declining? What? I have heard only the opposite. And Arcia's OF D has been improving? Where do you get that from?+ Look, I get that HRs are sexy. But really, a lot of doubles and triples will make up for only mediocre HR numbers, which is what Kepler has/will have.
  10. nytwinsfan
    I tend to agree. I'd like to see Hicks playing corner against lefties and weak righties, and Kepler and Rosario getting the rest of the corner OF starts. Buxton in CF, backed up by Hicks. I dont' know if Arcia makes sense in OF given the other four promising options we have (five if you count Walker). The only place he should be playing is DH, and unless the Twins move Plouffe and put Sano at 3B, I don't really see that happening.
  11. nytwinsfan
    It isn't 100% clear to me he is a better defender than Rosario (or even Kepler), but given that you are probably right, is that added marginal defense worth the drop off in offensive production on days when righties are pitching? Kepler, Rosario, and Arcia would likely all hit significantly better than .651 OPS against righties, and the first two with only marginally worse defense.
  12. nytwinsfan
    So there is basically no question now that Hicks is going to be a big leaguer, either as a CF and/or a platoon hitter against lefties. The question for the Twins, especially with Rosario also heating up, Kepler obliterating AA, and Buxton waiting in the wings, is whether he will hit well enough against righties to be an every day corner outfielder. I know Hicks has a .651 OPS against righties this year, which is fine for a CF, but doesn't really cut it for a corner OF. Does anyone know how to break down splits by month? I'd be interested to hear how Hicks has done against righties the last month or two.
  13. nytwinsfan
    Don't trade Kepler unless someone offers a straight up Ace with control left in future years. Otherwise No no no.
  14. nytwinsfan
    Stuart Turner!!! Keep it up!
  15. nytwinsfan
    I would argue that in the last few years Twins' prospects have provided nearly as much value as acquired veterans, and of course at much less price. And the prospects now are much better than those of the last few years. Veteran FA and trade acquisitions often fail too. Just look at Nolasco, Morales, Stauffer, Suzuki this year, Pelfrey, Doumit, the last 2 years of WIllingham, etc.
  16. nytwinsfan
    While I certainly agree with your overall point about being cautious and not giving away the farm, I guess I disagree a little about Kepler and his value. First, I think he is quite a bit more valuable than Meisner. Second, I don't think Kepler is blocked. I don't think Rosario has shown enough to be the default in left field, nor do I think that Hicks has hit well enough right-handed, for long enough, to be the everyday default in right field (Hicks is still hitting just .245/.311/.321(.632) against righties this year, which just doesn't cut it for a corner outfielder). I also think Kepler's upside is higher than both of them. His ability to take walks and his potential for power are both much higher than Rosario, and his left-handedness and less drastic splits are superior to Hicks. I would trade Rosario before Kepler if I were the Twins, although frankly, I don't see the need or reason to trade any of the three (or Buxton obvs.), especially given Hicks continued struggles against righties. A four-person outfield in which Hicks backs up Buxton in CF, and starts and pinch hits primarily against lefties (and occasionally starts against weak righties) would be a fantastic outfield.
  17. nytwinsfan
    Hoffman is just below Berrios, and I would argue has a higher ceiling. And Castro is at least a Gonsalves-level prospect. And Reyes' salary is not great, but at least it is limited to two years. If Tulo starts to decline in 2017 or 2018, which is at least a decent probability, the Jays will have 3 or 4+ years of significant salary to eat as well. So yeah, I stand by my characterization.
  18. nytwinsfan
    What elite SS is at a discounted price? Tulo? He would have taken one of either Gibson or Berrios, plus a bunch more. If he were two or three years younger, I might have considered it, but I wouldn't call that discounted. As for SS, it is a combo of Escobar being league average already, Polanco possibly being able to play SS soon, and Gordon possibly in 18-19. Yes, the latter two are big IFs, but the combination of all three means there is not much downside there.
  19. nytwinsfan
    We have much more pressing needs than SS, and our options by 2017-2019 for SS are likely to be even better than they are now (Polanco's D might improve and Gordon might be ready by 18 or 19). Until then, Escobar can hold down the fort. If Turner or Garver turn into league average catchers and a number of our relief prospects turn the corner, then maybe SS would become the top priority. But unfortunately I think that is unlikely to happen, so C and RP are by far the bigger priorities right now, for both the short and medium term.
  20. nytwinsfan
    I'm fine with standing pat. I think trading for a good reliever is a good idea, but if they are just going to go get another Tim Stauffer, then no thanks. Unless we are going to legitimately upgrade, let's just give some internal guys a shot. As for catcher, I'm ok with (1) a low-cost rental to share the role with Suzuki and give him more days off, or (2) making a bigger trade for a longer-term upside catcher that has a few years left, if the price is right but I think that is unlikely to be available. Otherwise I'd wait until the offseason to pay or trade for a long-term solution at catcher. No interest in trading for a SS unless someone offers a great deal. The only thing I would trade Kepler, Berrios, Rosario, Arcia, Polanco, Gordon, or Gonsalves for at this point (I'm assuming Buxton, Sano, May, Gibson and Hicks are off limits) would be as part of a deal for a high-upside catcher with multiple years left. Otherwise I'd just keep them. I might trade Stewart, Walker, Meyer, Hu, etc. as part of a package for a legitimately good reliever.
  21. nytwinsfan
    Great stuff. The bad news is that the BABIP is pretty high (.438), so if he is going to sustain anywhere near the current level of production, he is going to have to cut down those Ks quite a bit.The good news (besides the BBs, which you aptly document) is that he is very young and has so much room to grow as a hitter, despite already having great plate discipline.
  22. nytwinsfan
    Great stuff. The bad news is that the BABIP is pretty high (.438), so if he is going to sustain anywhere near the current level of production, he is going to have to cut down those Ks quite a bit. The good news (besides the BBs, which you aptly document) is that he is very young and has so much room to grow as a hitter, despite already having great plate discipline.
  23. nytwinsfan
    Please tell me Blankenhorn is really this good and that this is not just a SSS.
  24. nytwinsfan
    I doubt they premote him this year.
  25. nytwinsfan
    Yes, agreed. Not much to add.
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