nytwinsfan

Not as much as we need to acquire a good catcher and another good reliever. Especially since we have a possible candidate at AAA who has ace potential.

Happy to be wrong, but wouldn't it be a first-round pick this year, given that we draft 17th this year?

He's definitely one to watch. Seems like he has a lot of tools for a young guy, and he is a cold weather HS multi-sport player, both of which are factors that sometimes hide additional upside once they start practicing and playing just one sport year round.

Me too, but I think they should be strategic about it, which is what they have been. Sometimes they go big (Sano, Javier) and other times they spread it out over a number of good, but less high-profile picks (Polanco, Diaz, Palacios, Vielma, Thorpe). It totally depends on the scenario. If there is one year to go big, however, it is probably this ucoming one. There are at least four very good reasons to do so this year, as opposed to previous years: (1) the Twins will have a much smaller cap compared to the previous four or five years, so going over the cap gives them marginally more than it would have in past years; (2) this year's international crop of players is supposed to be one of the best in years; (3) many of the biggest spenders, such as the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees will not be involved in the big signings since they are limited to $300 K; (4) an international draft may be coming soon, which will blow up the system. While there might (would likely?) still be penalties for those teams that went over the previous year in an international draft, this injects an uncertainty into what those penalties are, and just how severe they will be. Here is the argument for spending big in the international market this year in greater length: http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2016-year-break-international-bonus-pool/ I hope the Twins go huge this July. This is their chance.

What about trading for Gary Sanchez? I know nobody likes dealing with the Yankees, but he might be available for the right price.

I agree with pretty much all of this. But I also think Terry Ryan agrees with almost none of it, except (I hope) Escobar.

How so?

Seems that not swinging at meatball strikes on the first pitch being Buxton's problem is pretty obvious, even before your confirming stats Parker. Surprised Bruno, et al. haven't gotten him to swing more on first pitches as the season has gone on.

Great interview with Kepler: http://video.startribune.com/kepler-happy-with-minor-league-title-but-being-in-bigs-amazing/328720501/ He has basically zero accent. Kind of dissapointing. I know Europeans are generally better at foreign language, but man, how does he have no accent at all? Is he just really good at language, or did he start learning English when he was little?

I think if you had a flowchart for the Twins' offseason, whether Plouffe is traded or not is at the very top. Not to say it couldn't happen after other moves, but ideally the decision about that would come first, and help determine what happens next. If Plouffe is traded, suddenly bringing Hunter back (hopefully for less than $10 million) isn't that big of a deal. It also gives a lot more flexibility for getting people like Hunter, Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas ABs if Sano is at 3B.

I agree, but I also agree with jokin that even with Buxton and Kepler starting at AAA, a roster that includes Rosario, Hicks, Hunter, Arcia, Mauer, Sano, and Plouffe is pretty crowded in terms of OF/3B/1B/DH types. In terms of position players, that leaves spots for Dozier, Escobar, Suzuki, 2nd catcher, and one back-up utility infielder (probably Nunez, Santana, Polanco, or someone else). That's 12, and that assumes (A) Vargas starts in AAA (B ) the Twins don't want a fast 4th outfielder like Robinson, and © the Twins are ok with just one back-up infielder. (A) seems possible, but I'm skeptical of (B ) and ©. I guess one solution is to make Santana the backup utility-infielder AND the fast 4th outfielder, but I'm not that high on him right now and think he should start at AAA. Given all of this, I think the Twins would be wise to (1) see if there is good value to be had for trading Plouffe, and if not, either (2) trade Vargas or Arcia and/or (3) not resign Hunter.

But add "with limited power" for both Mauer and Kepler, and isn't that exactly what Mauer's offensive profile is and was as a prospect? That's like saying, "except for the two or three most important aspects of hitting, they are totally different hitters." Granted, if Kepler turns out to be Mauer, that would be way way above his expected value. So I'm not expecting that and I don't think dxpavelka was either. But he's right that there is a similarity in their offensive profiles.

The obvious answer of what Ryan should target in a trade is: (1) a catcher that can split time with Suzuki next year and continue for years into the future, and with less urgency, (2) another strong reliever. That's basically it. Ideally, the catcher would either be (i) a prospect who is almost ready, (ii) a youngish catcher with some upside and only one or two years of service time and thus four or five years left before FA, or (iii) a solid late 20s or early 30s catcher who is an upgrade on Suzuki, but with a reasonable contract ($4 - $9 million per year) left for 2-4 years. Obviously (ii) would be the most expensive in terms of trade value, and would probably take at least Plouffe or one of our young outfielders, possibly plus another prospect. I would prefer to give up Plouffe over giving up one of the young outfielders, all else being equal, but that might not be the trade that is available.

Crushed it. LOL, jokin, i'm hard pressed to think of a single instance in which i've even mildly disagreed with you.

Congrats to the Lookouts! What a hell of a season for them, with so many guys coming through and contributing. So . . . Max Kepler starting in Left at TF tomorrow night or what?

It has been pretty clearly shown that OBP is the more important part of OPS, when compared to SLG. See, e.g., http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mark-trumbo-and-the-relative-value-of-obp-and-slg/ or http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/ "On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8)."

Interesting to see how the Twins make room for Kepler next year. I agree he will probably start in AAA, and there is some chance injuries may create room for him in the outfield, but not sure how he fits into the lineup otherwise, unless they trade Plouffe or decide to platoon in the outfield.

To see why total bases isn't as useful as OBP realize that if you get on base twice in 2 ABs with two singles, two walks, or a walk and a single, that is better than getting a double one AB and an out another AB in those same 2 ABs. This is because while an out decreases the odds significantly of further runs from the next batter(s), neither a walk nor a single do that. Now you might say, well a double is more likely to knock in a runner on 3rd, 2nd, or even (depending on the runner and the hit) 1B. But a single is likely to knock in a runner from 2B or 3B, and both a single and a BB will move runners on 1st to 2nd, and runners on 2nd and 1st to 3rd and 2nd, etc. And since we are assuming there are two of them, it does this twice, not just once. So on the ledger side of 1 double, 1 out, we have (1 occasion when any runners are moved over 2 or 3 bases, plus a guaranteed runner on 2, but we also have one occasion where no runners are moved along, and also an out, significantly reducing the chances for further runs from other batters that inning.) On the ledger side of 2 singles, 2 walks, or 1 of each we have (2 occasions when some runners are moved over a base or two (including scoring from 2B on singles), and 2 occasions with guaranteed runners on 1B, and no occasions where no runners are moved along, and also no outs reducing the chances of further hits, BB, and runs). This is my long-winded attempt at explaining quasi-intuitively what standard statistical regressions have mathematically shown. One point of OBP is worth more than AVG, and even one point of OBP is worth more than one point SLG. Of course, walks and singles are not worth the same either, with walks being less valuable (because they can't knock in a runner from 2B for instance). To deal with all of these relative values, sabermetrics has come up with wOBA, which attempts to fully value each kind of hit or walk by its likelihood of leading to a run. This has shown (and this will probably strike many people as being wrong - but really it isn't) that a HR is worth only a little bit more than twice a single (2.35 times actually). Of course Sano's HR versus KC the other night in the 12th was worth more than 2.35 times a single in that situation. Probably much much more. But wOBA is context independent. It values each hit according to how much value it would have on an average occasion. You can read about that here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-joy-of-woba/ Here is more on the relative values of different outcomes: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

Ok, fair enough, but Plawecki is also 24 and has the tools and minor league record to suggest there is a decent chance his offensive output will increase over the next few years. Plus, he may be easier to trade for on the margin, in light of his struggles for just this reason. Now is the time to get him. I'd trade Polanco or Walker + Arcia straight up for him, or something like that. The Mets might do that, or maybe it would take a little more (I don't know exactly where the market is at - none of us do). Obviously, if the Twins scouts don't see the tools for improvement, then don't do it. But if they do, he might be the kind of guy you take a shot at. There are no sure thing prospects, and especially sure thing catching prospects. That's why you need a farm system that has 2 or 3 guys with potential upside, even if individually each has less than a 50% chance of being a major league regular.

http://images2.dallasobserver.com/imager/u/original/7093833/nocountryforoldmenpic8.jpg

Kind of amazing that Ryan hasn't done anything about this, either in the short term or long term picture. The Pinto concussion was unexpected, but that was pretty early in the season, leaving plenty of time for a trade or signing. And while Turner and Garver have a shot in the medium to long run, they were never going to be ready this year, and definitely not the caliber of prospects you can count on to turn into regulars in the medium to long run. It really looks to me like there has been close to no planning for catcher, short or long-term. I know some people will respond, well young, controllable catchers and/or upside catching prospects are expensive and hard to pry loose. Granted, but, first, they can't be that hard to acquire, especially with a farm system full of quality non-catching prospects for which the Twins have a surplus (outfield, middle infield). For instance, Polanco, Gordon, Stewart, Gonsalves, Arcia, and/or Walker. Heck, even Kepler if the catcher has enough upside. And second, even if quality young or prospect catchers are really that hard to trade for, then there is always the option of drafting one in the first or supplemental round. I know, I know, BPA. I generally subscribe to that too. But if quality catchers and catching prospects are really so rare and hard to acquire on the trade market that they come at a steep premium, then maybe GMs, including Ryan, need to start putting their thumbs on the scale when drafting catchers. If supply is low, then price goes up on the market. And if price goes up on the market, then the value of drafting something that is overpriced goes up too.

Ahh, I see, I forgot that. ****. Ok, in that case, what the hell. Give him a shot at starting DH.

I guess I agree with both of you guys on everything except Arcia. While I am totally in the camp of NOT GIVING UP ON ARCIA, I don't understand the idea of starting him on the 25-man next spring. He really needs to prove his head and bat are in the right place next spring, so unless he is on fire in spring training, I would start him at AAA. Vargas or Kepler can start at DH. And if that doesn't work, there is always Nunez for DH.

LOL. Obviously everyone realizes Buxton is going to have to hit (and walk) more. Yes, he might need to start at AAA next season, but obviously that wouldn't be "just like Hicks." Hicks was 25 when he had his third trip to AAA. Buxton will be 22.