DocBauer

Ah, Kiriloff, I like him very much! (Tip of the cap to our man Cerano, LOL). On a more serious note, I think the Twins got a real steal in Khirilloff. Despite being perhaps the best HS bat in the draft, he slid to the Twins at 17, IIRC. Why I don't know, but I'm sure glad he did! What he did in 2018 was impressive. To do what he did after missing the entire season before makes it doubly impressive! Badoo has all the potential in the world, it seems. (There's that beautiful but ugly word again). But "potential" shouldn't be dismissed when talking about 25yo and younger ballplayers. Potential only becomes ugly when the obvious point of "nope" is clearly reached. The early returns on Larnach are very good. I still feel Wade has a chance to be Lawton-like with just a little more seasoning. Davis could have a shot. Despite a long road to travel, (figuratively and literally), despite an injury lost season, I find Whitefield to enormously intriguing. Obviously, there are others. We are all hopeful but immensely frustrated. But context should also be used. To look back 5 years, or longer, as some do, is misguided. There's not a single player on this team from that time frame. (Unless I've forgotten someone). Not to mention a new FO, a revamped field staff, behind the scenes changes, a fun and surprising 2017 season before the mess that was 2018 due to many factors still produced 78 wins. No rose colored glasses. 2018 was a bitter disappointment. And I am absolutely NOT going to through everything that went wrong last year. But if you had told me ahead of time what was going to happen, I would have predicted a 100 loss team. I get all that you are saying, and I appreciate your opinions. And we do need and want better players. Some are on their way, some will be added. But many of those players are already here. It's a question of being healthy and for Rocco and his staff to get the most out of them. This conversation began, essentially, in regard to the OF. Despite Khirilloff and others, a healthy Rosario, Buxton and Kepler playing to their potential, or at least beginning to reach it as a collection of 27yo and a pair of 25yo OF would absolutely not be part of the problem.

Going to have to disagree here. Potential is both a beautiful and ugly word. Rosario flashed, and then broke through in 2017. He was performing just as well before struggling with injury the second half in 2018. The 25yo Kepler has also flashed, showing off his athleticism and "potential", mixed in with weird splits and maddening inconsistency. Despite being a more natural corner OF rather than a true CF, the lessons of Hunter, Gomez and Hicks should apply to him as well. To dismiss him this early would be a big mistake. THEN, of course, there is the enigma of Buxton. Keith Law, I believe it was, responded to a question on a posted tweet as to what was wrong with Buxton. His response was; "Nothing. He was hurt all of last year." A simplistic and maybe even flippant answer? One could easily say yes. But despite some struggles and some rather pathetic flailing we saw last season, his "potential" and very strong finish in 2017 can't and shouldn't be ignored. I make no excuses, he still has to go out and play and perform. But even if the migraine problems early last season is dismissed as controllable and preventable with medication/treatment, the foot injury, trying or being forced to play with it, and then followed up by a wrist injury, I'm just not sure what anyone should have expected from Buxton last season.

I think this sums up the entire situation/saga Very succinctly. I have purposely stayed away from the still growing thread of Byron being "pissed". Mainly because the entire situation has been discussed previously, and what happened, happened. Simply, Buxton had some very tough luck in 2018. He also may not have been handled properly when brought up after his initial injury. (More definitely than probably, IMO). And he has every right to be disappointed or upset he wasn't brought up to close out the season, or how his season went. And the Twins were in their right to not bring him up for business purposes as well as to just shut him down to rest, heal, and have a fresh mind-set to prepare for 2019. Everyone is right. The question is, "what happens now?" Rocco was not hired to nurture Buxton. But it also happens to be a tragically fortunate fact that he has experienced much of what Byron has gone through. And if his personality and communication skills are as reported, he can provide a lot of perspective and assistance to help Buxton along, as well as mend any fences. (Remember when Perkins actually filed a grievance against the Twins before having a rather long, productive and celebrated career with the team). What's IMPORTANT at the end of the day is a healthy, motivated Buxton tapping in to his potential.

Tom, the video post was outstanding stuff! Seems to me Duran is clearly well north of the 170 or so pounds he's listed at in various places. Also looks like he has room to still fill out. I really like his delivery, it seems smooth and repeatable to me. Also encouraged, as you stated, that he had so much velocity late in the season. When you watch these clips, and read his stat lines once he came over, but compare his previous numbers, you have to wonder who the real Duran is. I get that he's young, but WOW, what a difference. Makes you wonder why they included him in the trade. Makes very excited to see what he does next year. Note: I understand rankings based on ceiling and projections. And really, not sure if I care that Gonsalves or Duran are ranked above or below one another. And I would agree that Sudan's ceiling is higher than Gonsalves. But I also agree a few poor-mediocre-solid appearances at the end of 2018 shouldn't define Gonsalves at this point.

Healthy at only 31yo, I see Gibson as the better pitcher. I'm not knocking Odorizzi. But I dont feel he's in any sort of decline and he flat out pitches deeper and more effectively than Odorizzi. With the market swings we've seen last year and this, 3 and $36-40M might just do it. Could Gibson potentially earn more? Yes. But he could also earn less. He would be my first choice at numbers even close to what I listed. As someone said, why not sign both? I dont like the trend Odorizzi has shown the past 2 seasons, but he's solid. But would he be worth more than he's making this year? How much more? Would he do 3 at $30M? What really complicates the process is Pineda. Now recovered from surgery, if he pitches to most of his career numbers, he'd very likely be a better choice than Odorizzi.

Huge miss on Jay. Simply, he may be done. Here's hoping for a great off season, whatever that may mean, and he suddenly puts his resume back in the table. Nope to Pearson, for NOW, but all things considered, wasn't a bad choice. I'm thinking 2019 could reasonably put him in the top 20, maybe top 15, of a deep organization. At this point, unless we see trades, he would have to kill it for top 10 status. Miranda, right now, is just outside the top 10. Not a bad place to be in a system laden with talent. Thorpe is absolutely in the top 10! LH and breathing doesn't do any justice to his early numbers, nor what he has done in his year and a half since getting healthy again. Kid blew away AA and had 4 solid appearances at Rochester before turning 22. He will be in the ML before the season is done.

Great question! First and foremost, let's state the facts clearly. As of NOW, Gibson, Pineda and Odorizzi are PENDING FA after 2019. Even if you buy in to a cheap organization hyperbole, do we really think an organizational FO who buys in to experience and leadership would just leave the cupboard bare of such? Unless they have secret plans none of us knows about to add a veteran SP, possible, I would expect at least 1 of these 3 to return. Honestly, I expect a quality and reasonable offer to Gibson in the near future. Pineda comes second, as he is still a bit of a wild card, but with reasonable quality expectation. He becomes easier to re-sign if Gibson is already locked in. Odorizzi is a real wild card. There is still enough there for him to "get it late" as Gibson did. (Though in truth Gibson's first 2 years were quality). Regardless, at least one will be gone, if not two, but not all three. 2019 will be, for the first half season at least, looking at Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia, Stewart, Thorpe by mid season at least, and determining 2020. Depending on what we see, don't be surprised for one of them to be moved to make room.

Honestly, this is one of the best, most fun, and intillegent debates I've ever seen on TD, much less anywhere else. The crux is, EVERYONE is both right as well as wrong. But let's just get to the meat on the bone: 1] Finding a complete 5 man starting staff of high quality is tough as hell if not impossible. The game has changed. Period! To be fair, top flight SP who can consistently perform well, and pitch multiple innings, are still extremely valuable 2] Bullpens, and their usage, and value, has also changed. See point #1. Arguably, the SAVE statistic has been magnified and then de-valued over recent seasons. To be fair yet again, top RP who can hold leads and get saves are still extremely valuable. I have spent a lot of "stubborn" time evaluating and re-evaluating SP vs BP usage vs DS usage...(Designated Starter)...and have come to a couple simple and reasonable conclusions. 1] QUALITY PITCHING usually wins, or gives you the best chance to compete and win. Yes, you need at least decent defense and some offense, and a BIG offense offsets lesser pitching, but you need a quality STAFF. You can look at recent history like the Royals two fine seasons, or the past and the two WS seasons by the Twins to realize that SP OR RP can lead you to competition and victory. 2] The DS, Designated Starter, is an illusion. Unless baseball expands the roster to 27 or more players, there simply is no way to implement this as a full time strategy. HOWEVER, if used properly, it IS the perfect way to fill in a spot in the rotation, especially when breaking in a young SP or two. Instead of a young/questionable SP facing the top of the lineup right off the bat, you pitch a "RP" the first inning, hoping/assuming he does his job, and then bring in the LS...Long Starter...to pitch an expected/hopeful 4-6 IP. Combined, you get the same 5-7 IP you expect from a "top" of the rotation starter. In this case, by conventional pitching standards, you had a SP who went 4-6 IP before you turned to your bullpen. What's different other than bringing in a RP early? You're LP, didn't have to face the top hitters a 3rd time, theoretically. Again, this approach simply doesn't work daily unless you have an expanded roster. But it works very well if used wisely for one of your rotation spots if you build your pen wisely. And, come on, it doesn't work at all if you have trash in your rotation! And we have seen teams that have quality rotations with a lousy bullpen that sunk them. So building a quality pen isn't as easy as just plugging some guy in an just telling him to go perform. And we all have heard laments about Molitor and his usage of the pen. But you do have to use what you have. And it's up to the FO and the manager and the 40 man to use what you have. I am NOT picking on Brian, who I agree with about 90% of the time, lol, but it's not about just pitching Rogers 100+ IP because he's quality. (Just an example). It's about the best 12 arms to complete your staff, with SP, short RP, and the guys in between. This is, truly, not a re-invention of pitching. Some of us are old enough to remember Mike Marshall from the Twins in the late 70's, before there were FIREMAN awards and big save numbers measured. 9 times he saved 10 or more games. 5 times he won 10 or more games as a RP. 6 times he threw 100IP+, 99 once, and 200 once! The point isn't a HOF advocacy for Marshall, or some similar expectancy for the Twins pen in 2019 or beyond. Simply, maybe the new way of thinking is not so dissimilar to to retro. Being cutting edge may not be as difficult as it appears. Bring in a couple of really nice bullpen arms to work with what you have, and the new staff. Trust in the rotation you have and work in the new arms. Use ALL the arms you have available. Let Rocco and Johnson and Heffner work with them. Frankly, while optimistic, I'm more concerned with the lineup for next season. And it's been a while since I could say that.

No to the 37yo Shields coming off a pair of poor season's and a mediocre one. (Though pitching for the bad Dirty Sox, he may be excused to a small degree). We don't need an innings eater with poor numbers, especially with guys to actually PLAY and see what they can accomplish in 2019. But I admit to curiosity regarding Gonzalez. I remain Leary of guys who spent all or most of their career in the NL making the move over. The 33yo had a mediocre 2016 with a really nice bounce back in 2017 before a pretty bad 2018. However, he did show good numbers in 5 late starts for Milwaukee. Was it just time to move on? He's had a nice, solid career. There is probably some gas left in the tank and he might be had on the cheap side. I think he's worth consideration. However, I really think we're better served with Romero, Mejia, Gonsalves, Thorpe, and even Stewart and Littell, for 2019, to flesh out the rotation/staff for 2019 and beyond.

Respectfully, I am going to disagree with you. In all sports, but concerning baseball at the moment, there are owners who tend to go "all in" more than others in regard to payroll, whether it be ego or as fans themselves. Others tend to run their organization in a more traditional "business-like" manner. Not a coincidence that the traditional "all in" owners tend to be in major markets. I am NOT a Pohlad apologist, nor am I referring to them directly. Just stating what I believe to be an accepted fact. I am skipping the smart value signings of Rodney and Duke and concentrating on Addison Reed. He was considered one of the premium RP available on the market but slipped through the cracks in a slow market. He signed for a very fair 2yr deal that was heralded. THIS off season, the market appears to be even deeper with options than last year. Not only do the Twins have at least a few returning arms to consider, but also the use of the arms available, such as guys like Romero or Mejia, and others, to consider for pen roles. Considering the depth of options, and a still slow moving market, I take Levine's comment at face value. See how the market unfolds over the next few weeks, and then make a couple smart signings.

I actually find this post and those numbers encouraging. And not because simple math puts them close to the stated magic number of 40. It's because I could see some of the listed numbers easily climb from projections. Are there questions? You bet. And there is always injury and the such. And maybe it's just the little boy baseball optimist in me, but I just have this "feel good gut instinct" about Sano and Buxton, Kepler and Polanco, and a few of the pitchers taking a step forward. Every time I reflect on how frustrating, disappointing, completely weird last season was, I remember something like 26 1 run losses. Just a few key hits, a couple less bad plays, a better bullpen, could we have split that number in half?

He's one if a few guys I'm interested in, along with Soria and Herrera, to name a couple more. Absolutely feel they should target one guy they really like for a 2-3yr deal and then I'm OK with a 1yr or 1+yr deal to someone like Herrera for a bounce back season. I'd just really like an option year attached.

I agree on the internal options for 2019, as well as working with them for 2020 and beyond. Considering age and injury, I have to wonder if a guy like Bucholz might be enticed to re-invent himself in the bullpen?

Rotation: Berrios is only going to improve. As pointed out already, Gibson was very good the last year and a half, good his first 2 years, and is fully healthy. Odorizzi is not great, but when reflecting on career numbers and where he ranked for 2018, he's solid. As long as the knee injury/tweak Pineda suffered late last season is fine, his arm is sound, and he's posted some quality numbers in his career. Mejia and Romero should be the front runners for the final rotation spot, designated starters used or not. Both could/should be on the team in some capacity. Bullpen: Add one really good, proven arm on a 2-3yr deal, add a second on a lesser 1-2yr or "prove it" deal to go along with what we already have and you end up with a much, much better pen than 2018. And there is depth. Of course, Reed back to his old self...and his last 6 or so appearances he seemed to resemble that...you become that much deeper and stronger. And no reason, over the course of a full year, that there won't be opportunities to audition the youth/depth for 2020 and beyond.

Pitching is changing and the lines are blurring between SP and RP. There is nothing wrong with that. And I agree with the OP in theory but disagree in practice. For now, Romero and Mejia would seem to be the favorites for the 5th rotation spot, followed by Gonsalves and the Stewart, IMO. Using a designated starter may be the optimum way to introduce a young SP. (Gonsalves and Stewart were very different performers when this was used last season). May is a given, along with Rogers. Track history and a much better close the last few weeks of the season suggests Reed is also. Hildenberger is not a given, but his milb history, his 2017, and the first half of 2018 would have me betting on him. If Mejia isn't in the rotation, he is in the pen, followed by Moya and then Vaszquez. (Not saying they couldn't go with 3 LHRP). You are correct that there are internal options, relievers and converted starters, to audition and roll through. But if the Twins really do like the positional players on hand, (And coming up), and are banking on a much different 2019, you owe it to your team to have a couple more quality options for the pen rather than just a series of auditions. And you always need depth over the course of the season. With the vast number of options available, and the market slow, I would target one guy on a 2-3yr deal to be a part of this team. I would then target another arm for a 2yr or 1+1 deal. Whether I would consider a third arm on a 1yr alone is debatable.

In order to have the most versatile and flexible roster...whether Cruz is signed or not...and regardless of Rosario/Kepler/Cave in thr infield, or the opposite for Austin... I have maintained the team absolutely needs another infield option. No matter how much you like Sano, believe in him, hope, expect, you still need some insurance. That also goes for anyone in the infield. While I like Adrianza in his role, he can't be the only option available. Reading an article at MLB, they went through a list of potential 2B out there. There are 3 guys who really interest me: One is Solarte, who I have mentioned previously. Coming off a down season, he has been a decent hitter with pop and has played everywhere in the infield with a few games in LF. Another is Derek Dietrich. He plays 1B/2B/3B/OF. Solid bat, not a bad OB, solid power, and a LH bat. Lastly is Wilmer Flores. Decent bat, not a great OB. Solid power. Plenty of experience at all 4 infield spots. I can't believe any of these 3 would be overly expensive to sign. Any of them could fill a useful and regular role at various positions daily. Thoughts?

FWIW, I looked up Dusten Knight tonight. From what I can gather, he's 28yo, RH, 6' 200lbs. He throws in the 90's but seems to have a very nice curveball. Saw a video on Twinkietown website. (Can I say that? Lol) curve looks awesome in the shot I saw. He split 2017 between A+ and AAA with solid numbers with just shy of a K per IP but just shy of a 2-1 K/BB ratio. I don't know, but am assuming some sort of injury situation as he began 2018 in rookie ball before jumping to AA and AAA. 20 games at AA, only 4 games at AAA. 1.71 ERA combined, .196 AVG, .95 WHIP between all three stops. 4-1 SO/BB ratio, better than his career of about 2-1. I am assuming, despite OK milb career numbers and maybe an even better 2018, that his age and lack of true dominance, especially in the velocity area, made him available. He appears to be AAA/AAAA fodder/fill-in. Best guess, better numbers in 2018 than before with a big curveball made him an interesting Rochester addition.

I don't like a full time DH, unless he's exceptional. I never have. I've always preferred roster flexibility, even if one guy usually handled that spot. TK was always very good about handling his roster. Back in the day, Randy Bush saw a lot of time at DH. But he was also a decent corner OF and 1B. When he was in the field, another player got a "half day" off by DH. Later on, Larkin would spell Hrbek at 1B. (Might have even seen a few games in the OF, but memory fades). Chilli Davis was probably the only true DH TK ever had. But even be played a little OF here and there, if only to prepare for the post season. I'm OK with Cruz at this point, all being said, because I think he fills a real role. Someone, probably Austin, though I hate to lose him/give up on him, has to go. You absolutely need another quality "utility" guy besides Adrianza. Absolutely waiting for Rooker and Khirilloff to join the current mix in the next year or so to make the entire OF/1B/DH situation one of great strength and versatility. (Might toss Wade in there too). But for now, I'm OK with Cruz onboard.

BINGO! Once in a while you just need to take a step back and look at things objectively, no matter what the situation is. In this case, it's baseball. More to the point, TWINS baseball. The reality is, despite disappointment and frustration that boils over, there is a new sheriff and deputy in charge of things. And I'm not going to rehash their early moves, but clearly they have been looking at changing the entire culture of the team from the top on down. They now have a new manager...arguably the guy/type of guy they wanted all along...and a mostly new staff in place to move forward. And it's actually pretty easy to point out individual players in all of baseball who are kicking it as 20-21-22yo and ask why the Twins don't have that. But that is not the norm. Reality check tells us that is true. And there are arguments made that "lots of teams had injuries And they overcame those". And there IS validity to that statement. But whether it be finances, scouting, top prospects at AAA knocking on the door already, better planning at the AAA level or luck, every team and every situation is different. Note: I have been critical of the FO in their regard to the Rochester roster last season. But to be fair, when 2018 began, the best prospects were all AA and below players. That doesn't excuse a failure, but "other teams" may have also been more top heavy with guys ready for their chance. Regardless, Ted's point is clear and accurate. Sano, Buxton, Kepler, etc, are talented...young...athletes with tremendous potential, and all highly ranked and regarded who have shown flashes of their potential. I still say and believe you couldn't have asked for a more bizzarre/weird, cursed series of events for 2018 than we saw. (No need to re-hash it all). Maybe Sano just doesn't care enough. Maybe Buxton is just injury prone and can't make contact. Maybe Kepler is a tremendous athlete who is a nice reserve. And we could break down Polanco, Rosario, etc, and look for all the negatives we could find, were that our agenda. But just focusing on these 3, as Ted has here, Sano hasn't produced some of the big numbers be has, and earned an All Star appearance in 2017 because he was lucky. Buxton hasn't flashed great plays and an outstanding second half in 2017 because he was lucky and nobody was looking. Kepler hasn't shown improvement, as Ted spoke of...while still showing bizarre splits at times...with contact and solid OB skills, along with laser-shots when he makes contact because pitchers just don't consider him a threat. No. There is REAL potential and ability here. What happens next is up the players, and Rocco, and his coaching staff to develop and unlock that potential.

Absolutely agree! No matter what, it's still a team game. Baseball is very much a game of individual matchups. But the components involved are defense, pitching and hitting. No matter how productive a hitter may be, he is still one man in a lineup. It's not like other sports where you can call a play for him, and insert him where and when you want to. He is "stuck" at his spot in the lineup. I still feel the Trout example is a good one. No matter how incredible his career has been, he's still one guy in the lineup. Harper is young, talented and productive. His best years may be in front of him. And there is no question he has the ability to help a team, and even push them over the top with his production. And he is...in the crazy world of professional sports financials...worth $20-25M. But $30M, which he rejected? $40M? Sorry....NO.

Cruz has never been my first choice, preferring one of the top OF available, but I'm mkre than fine with his addition for power, OB, as well as just professional AB's. Never occurred to me, until you mentioned it here, about his relationship, experience and communication to other young Latin players on the roster. I am becoming more and more enticed for his signing, especially if the Twins do the smart thing and bring another versatile infielder on board, though that probably means the end to Austin.

It's not like I actually know anything, lol, but have to disagree. (I especially never really understood the milb portion of protection but seem to understand those exposed are fringe guys). The best prospects at the high levels are protected on the 40 man. The remaining top prospects are either too young to be eligible, or protected under various rosterings. Again, I'm unfamiliar with all the rules. The milb portion has always been about filler pieces. I am absolutely befuddled, however in regard to Reed. Despite production, and a strong finish to 2018, the Twins didn't look at him, or protect him, and nobody saw fit to draft him. There is obviously something here we are all missing here. In regard to Jay, I wouldn't have been shocked to see some rebuilding team take a flier on him. But injuries and performance really didn't make him a strong consideration. I really doubt he's going to make it at this point. But we have all seen guys who just struggle for various reasons until one day something clicks and the stars line up. Here's hoping he is 100% in 2019 and his arm and arsenal show life and suddenly the Twins have another LH BP arm to work in.

Come on gang, this is about building the team and the organization in to a sustainable, competitive and winning franchise. At no point was this piece about sustaining the past few years.

Rosario came up as a CF and then moved to LF. He has even played some CF, and played it fine from what I have seen, but somewhere along the line the Twins decided they liked Kepler better there. He also played a year at 2B in the minors. As Brian referenced, not sure if the Twins didn't like him there, or simply decided with Dozier there, to return him to the OF. He played at 3B in one game last season and made a tremendous play while there. I am absolutely not saying he should be converted, but with athleticism and at least some infield time as a professional, he warrants a look at 2B/3B as a fill in option due to injury or late game switches at least.

FWIW...I think his glove and bat work really well when he plays on a regular basis, just not daily. Which is why we so desperately need another guy to help out,fill in, etc.