DocBauer

Why do so many discount keeping these guys in the fold. Baffles me!

This may or not be the right place to broach this, but I don't know if it deserves a separate OP, and he's already been mentioned. At least by me, lol. What is the issue with Romero? I think he could be a huge surprise in 2020 and going forward if his arm and stuff can be harnassed. And his stuff is electric. I don't pretend to have the eye or knowledge of Parker or many contributors here. Is he just that inconsistent in his delivery? MY OPINION watching him last season is it felt like he pitched almost "scared". It felt, to me, like he was trying to be too perfect and "aim" the ball vs just throwing within the zone and allowing for natural velocity and movement to do what it does. Love to hear other opinions on the matter.

What is so interesting here, to me, is not the slider. I mean, the numbers sort of speak for themselves, but his FB. Unless I just missed something, the velocity seems to be there, but location or deception seem to be the issue. I don't recall if he normally throws a 2 seam or 4 seam, but something has to be found or corrected. Is it his grip? Does he need to slide to one side of the rubber? Is he just inconsistent with his delivery? Seems to me if Johnson can do the things we think he can do, add a tick or two, help him "tunnel" and find that consistent approach, we could end up finding something here. Just because no-one has yet doesn't mean this isn't the time and place and coaching point in his career to make something happen. I mean, the problem with most pitchers isn't the FB, right? It's usually their breaking pitch or change.

Can't and won't disagree with you as we agree 100% in principal. Betts, of course, was just an example. Part of me always likes to look forward to the young guys I see being so close. Yes, guys will get dinged. And you can always end up making an unexpected trade if you truly end up with surplus. Ranching it down a notch, what are your feelings on Frazier for a 1yr or Castellano as an OF, try him at 1B, he could play 3B in a pinch option? Not that I necessarily sold on either guy.

Agree 100%. But reflecting back, Gibson was beginning to have issues as well. And 1 kid in the rotation at a time may have been their thinking. But I agree, you give the kid of choice a shot, or you don't. (Did I just channel Yoda there?) When 2020 rolls around, and there is opportunity arises early on with Pineda out, I hope they just "go for it" with their youngster of choice. Maybe even piggyback a couple of them.

We generally agree on this point. You can never have too many good players. So get as many as you can and plug them in to the place, or places, that they fit best. But that has to come with at least a little context, doesn't it? You get Betts tomorrow and now who plays 1B? Do you move Kepler there and cross your fingers? He's athletic enough to probably convert well, but is that the best course of action? While I hope but don't think we will get Donaldson, he's a great fit due to bat and position and the move of Sano to 1B. But if not him, isn't a Moreland-type on a 1yr to replace Cron perhaps the best option? You have a handful of really good looking guys near ready to challenge for 1B, and Lewis getting that much closer to taking over one of the infield spots. Not saying "don't get someone" because you whiff on Donaldson. I just think how they fit within the structure of the team, even and especially in context of positional flexibility, has to still be considered. But yeah, have the money, miss on Donaldson, look to improve in any way you can.

How many times can I hit the LIKE button before I get in trouble or my phone blows up on me? Understand frustration, disappointment, optimism, etc. But the ENTIRE context of the quote, what has happened, and what might yet happen, all have to be considered. This is directed at nobody in particular, just my own thoughts and commentary. The quote never stated any guarantee one of the top 4-5 FA was going to be brought on board no matter what. In fact, to me, the first step, and what I'm extremely grateful happened, was bringing Oddo and Pineda back. They are impact guys. Now, I wanted more. I still want more. But I think any disappointment I feel is level headed in how things have played out so far.

I feel part of the reason Perez got such a long leash was based on hope from his early season performance, and maybe a feeling of not putting too much pressure on too many of the kids at once. Where I feel positive that they won't continue to play someone not performing is moving on from Parker, and others, in the pen, or embracing Arraez daily over Schoop. I hope I'm right, but I think we may be moving beyond the "pay 'em so play 'em" mantra.

My answer is no to a trade, and not due to dislike. His addition, even with a good bat, is not the same as adding Donaldson. Donaldson brings that big bat along with fine defense for at least a few more years. Adding a different quality bat but poor defense does not have the same affect as the slight re-shuffle of the infield corners. I'd rather come up with the best short term 1B option I can with Rooker/Raley/Kirilloff in the wings and close.

I would have preferred someone younger like Wood or Walker on a 1+1 deal as the upside is much greater, IMO, though the floor might be lower if they just can't make it back. Which leads to the premise of the OP discussing Bailey vs Perez. Bailey had success for a period if time before injury derailed his career. He had a bounce back in 2019 and finished strong, someone you can't say about my preferred and previously stated options. Bailey has also already had some career success whereas Perez really hadn't until the first months of last season. In short, there is every reason to believe Bailey, IF actually performing well/solidly should maintain and not fall off a cliff the way Perez did.

Read every post. Ready to weigh in. I had a personal list of a few flier guys I liked. (Not that I KNOW anything). Neither of these guys were on my list. These guys are not part of my prescription for 2020. The Doctor is NOT overly happy about these moves. But whether it be life or Twins, I like to take a step back and look at the situation, weigh and examine everything, and try to see the big picture. Again, NOT happy. And I'm not going to be until I see Donaldson, or a trade for a quality arm, hopefully both. But with a step back, still hoping things are not done, I can offer a few points of "positivity" that should be considered. 1] While injuries have been an issue, Hill has been good to very good when on the mound. As recently as last season. He absolutely is a cheap mid season type acquisition that costs little. And if good enough to earn any of his incentives, the FO looks brilliant. There really is no risk here. 2] A few years back, Bailey had a nice run of a few good seasons before injury and such derailed him. For whatever reason(s), he had a bounceback in 2019 and a strong finish. Some decent/good previous success and said rebound doesn't look too bad for your your #4 or #5 SP. And that is what he was signed for. I think most of us were on board for a depth flier regardless. 3] Everyone, myself included, liked what the FO did EXCEPT for ignoring all the FA for the BP, except for Parker, and were confused and miffed greatly. But they had a vision/plan that we didn't see and by the time things settled down, they were right, and I will admit I was wrong. They like their first 3 guys. They like their youngsters, obviously, and believe in what is coming up. They obviously have a vision and belief we all don't see or agree with at this time. Once again, I'm not really happy. There still needs to be a couple smart moves made to build on this club and their potential. I'm not ready for torches and pitchforks yet because I've seen so much good they have done. And my "positive spin" here isn't to convince you, or myself for that matter, that these were any kind of brilliant move! I only offer a step back perspective, after reflection, to say there may be a method in madness here to be examined and not simply dismissed out of frustration and impatience.

First, tremendous OP, Nick. I especially liked the O'dowd comments because they are real. Kudos. The one comment, in all sports, that has always frustrated and confounded me is "This team is built for the playoffs". (I shake my head again just thinking about it). It is the worst case of hyperbole. It's as if someone assembled a team/roster and SOMEHOW the regular season should be skipped and we should somehow skip said regular season and just assemble a collection of teams based on paper and fantasy projection and just jump so some playoff scenario to decide the champion. It doesn't work that way. If it did, the Twins would have been virtually excluded in 1987. The Patriots would have just been handed the Lombardi trophy a few years back instead of having to actually PLAY, and lose to the Giants simply because they were the "best team assembled". While some want to scream "cheap" about "financial flexibility" as though it were an ugly 4 letter or hyphenated word, it is not. In MLB, we are seeing teams, and have seen glimpses previously, now looking to shed excessive payroll they themselves created. Take Boston as an example. Am I off topic or digressing? Not at all. The Twins window opened up in 2019 through a variety of factors, mostly due to health and progression of the core in place, along with a few smart additions. And yet, for various reasons, there remains room for INTERNAL improvement, based on experience/development and in some cases, health. Unless suddenly traded in mass, there is a collection of top prospects nearly ready to add and replace losses over the next year or so. This, even allowing for the loss of current players/prospects. You trade Rosario, Larnach is close to replacing him. Or Kirilloff does with Raley or Rooker taking over or sliding in to 1B. Lewis, untradedm could be at 3B/SS/CF. The point isn't horde prospects, but just don't dump them all so that you have options. We simply will not be able to keep and re-sign everyone. Trades will happen for various reasons. Some prospects will flame out. Others will surprise. Some trades will pan out, others will not. But additions and development will be key over time. The best run franchises with any sort of "sustainability" prove that to be true. As the Twins are constructed, RIGHT NOW, from the ML roster on down, knowing there will be losses here and there, I would say there is a legitimate window of 3 to 4 years. That's the best I can give because there are just too many factors in place. Example: we keep Berrios but lose Sano and Buxton. They are replaced Lewis and Javier. Give me the best, most competitive, versatile team you can put together every season for a shot, and I'll take that.

Saying "if healthy" is a redundant and somewhat bogus statement as really, that applies to EVERYONE! And career performance for an over 30yr old player is always a very slippery slope. HOWEVER, I'd like to think the health question is something any team, including the Twins, would investigate very thoroughly before making any move. (I thoroughly acknowledge mid-season moves like the one last year for Dyson throw a monkey wrench in place). To state the obvious, I don't pay a lot in prospect value. Boston also has to eat some of the $ cost. But how does that work exactly? If you are the Twins, you could be looking at Boston eating mkre the first year, potentially while we have $ sitting unspent for 2020. But over the next couple of seasons, even with some additional $ coming off the books, we also have some extensions we need to look at. Prince's performance in big games for 2018 shouldn't be discounted. Nor should his first half of 2019, which I would gladly take. But how much, if you are the Twins, do really and truly trust his health and ability to perform for 28GS over the next few years at something like $20M per with low prospect cost? Do you truly see the ends justifying the means? I'm saying no, but I am intrigued. I just feel the odds are better for Gray, Ray, etc, for 2yrs plus a flier type we've all discussed. Maybe there is another Odorizzi move that is even smarter.

A very interesting arguement, Matt. Honestly not sure Duffey and May couldn't be one of the guys to actually take a step forward. But of the 3 names you listed, I'd also agree on Littell, but with some hesitancy. I say that because I liked what he did and what I saw. He's come a long way from the kid with a deer in the headlight look thrown out on the mound when not quite ready in 2018. But damn when you look at what Stashak did as a rookie and his SO/BB totals. With the very nature of the BP role, so hard to predict regression. Because of that, I won't argue against Duffey, or anyone. Said regression would be minimal, I'd hope. I think a 3rd topic, and maybe more interesting, would be a Wild Card choice. Who might step up that we aren't exactly exlecting? Might that be Wisler suddenly finding better control, Romero harnessing his stuff, or Alcala embracing his new role? Or someone else?

I agree with the list and the order, though in actuality, it will fluctuate some daily. Very excited about the depth all the way down to Rochester. Have this nice kind of nagging feeling that Romero could end up changing this list. Just throw the ball over the plate, kid, and trust your stuff.

This is a topic that tantalizes me and also drives me crazy! If you take a long, hard look at the core of tne Twins roster, you forget how young it is. After a handful of just disappointing and hard seasons, you want HOPE. And you read about all this talent coming up and you just want them to be special NOW. And some point to this guy, or that guy, who are 21-23yo and seem to be studs already. But those guys at that age not only don't grow on trees, they are spread out throughout 30 teams! EVERYONE wants to have the next Trout! It doesn't happen that often. Berrios is a FINE SP. I doubt there is a team that wouldn't love to have him. He is already good, and a 2 time All Star...for what that is worth...who has looked like a bona fide ACE in the making before some late season regression. He won't be 26 until May of 2020! Sano and Polanco are still only 26yo. Buxton and Kepler the same. Maybe it's some kind of Minnesota curse, but injuries have indeed played a part for some reaching their full potential. Now whether it is maturity, health, or a new way of doing and approaching things, we saw a maturation taking place in 2019 with all of these guys stepping in to what should be their prime years. He'll, Rosario at 28yo is the "old man" of this group. I don't think we have seen the best yet of any of these guys. Period. But give me 140 games played with health, or 30 GS, I'd pick Sano, Buxton and Berrios. And that doesn't even include improvement from Polanco, Kepler and Garver, possibly one of the best all around catchers in the game.

Sorry, and with due respect for your opinion, I just can't agree here. Thus FO has eaten payroll at times over the last couple of years to make trades, something never done before to my recollection. While they have yet to trade top prospects, they have traded some prospects recently. Polacios (did I remember that right?) Was still a "decent" and young prospect traded for Odorizzi. How did that turn out? They traded a couple of decent prospects, though not top granted, to acquire Dyson and Romo last year. Turned out to be half right. Just because they haven't as of yet traded some of their top 10-20 prospects doesn't mean they won't. I mean, 3 years in, but going back to mid season last year, when has there really been a time that was right to do so? And even last year, they were in on Stroman before he went to the Mets and it was widely published they were rather P.O. because they felt they were in and would have offered a counter but weren't allowed to. Now, if they rest on laurels and do nothing but plan B or C, then they bad better be as smart as we all hope they are or some torches and pitchforks may come out. Signing someone like Wood or Walker is exactly what they SHOULD do, regardless! These are guys who have live arms, healthy, and have even shown what they can do when healthy. Remember when Pineda was signed for $2M to rehab and had a 2nd year? How did that turn out? Even with some young arms on hand, these kinds of fliers on 27-28yo arms should be a must for anyone, especially a mid-market team. And unless there is something financially going on I am not privy to, I don't see how the Twins spending $M's of dollars every year to update Target Field is in some way recouping any sort of debt. I don't mean to sound argumentative or mean, we just don't agree here.

Been banging the drum on Walker and Wood for some time now. Never thought about both of them as I still see a trade taking place. But honestly, why not both? What's the worst that could happen? Both turn out and you have surplus depth and value? Or one turns out and you look like geniuses? No on Hill as he's hurt and his recent public embarrassment is something I want no part of. If you want a 3rd option, think about Nelson.

Nice write up. And I'm in full agreement on Odorizzi. He doesn't pitch the number of innings you want, but he is borderline dominate for 5+ daily. While the Twins NEED another SP, and there is debate about the whole addition of adding "impact pitching", I don't see how bringing back Odorizzi and Pineda, 2 of the top 12-14 arms available on anyone's list, isn't adding impact pitching. Adding Clippard isn't adding a bum either. They need to add a similar pitcher to Berrios and Odorizzi. Also agree that a flier for depth and competition is an easy must.

While I am not a fan of the Dirty Sox in the least, I appreciate their efforts from afar. And while I can appreciate some of the modern statistical measurements, I remain a huge skeptic. Point in fact, another article, written on another Twins website...though compares to TD...uses the same, or much the same, analytical measurements, using mostly the Pythagorean record...all Greek to me, lol...and WAR, and has them as a .500 team for 2020. As of now, the Twins sit at a minimum of 90 wins using the same analytics. I think there is a big difference between the "analytics" used by beat writers, fans and savants vs the analytics used by progressive FO personnel. Give me the best team you can put on the field. Short in an area? Shore up that area the best you can and build up your strengths to compensate. Then give me the best staff you can to utilize what you have. Then let's play ball and see what we have. Besides, it's not even January 1st yet!

Career production, last season production, regression and projection all indicate we should see pretty much the same Cruz, give or take a little, we saw in 2019. Just allowing for father time, I'd expect some regression and a few more games played to see him post very similar numbers next year. Now, Cruz could just decide enough is enough and retire after 2020. Be could also decide he wants to chase some numbers and feel like he's ready to play some more. That would put him in a year to year situation, IMO. Could put he and the Twins in an interesting position come the end of next year. But, that is a discussion for a very distant time and place. I get the Papi reference, and while comparison is natural, the re-tread of a Ryan mistake made 16yrs ago just needs to stop. Whole careers have been made since that time.

Wanted to make a quick comment about the last OP concerning OF as I wasn't able to. Pretty much no to anyone unless Rosario is moved. Again, unless Cave is moved, per some reports, the only things needed is a smart option to compete with said Cave, and Wadem and Raley who can provide a legitimate, possibly, option in CF so Kepler wouldn't have to slide over. And I don't think Hamilton is that guy. Now...on to the current topic at hand: Really surprised the OP is this short of a list. To bring up Colon, even for the sake of humor, is unforgivable in lieu of arms like Wood and Walker as viable options. Are they not mentioned because they have been brought up in previous articles? Or have I missed something over the last couple of days and they are suddenly gone? At this point they, and even Smyly, would be more viable options than Hernandez, IMO. Every year there is someone, be it an over 30 veteran, or a 27-29yo coming off injury and/or surgery that still offers upside if healthy and with the right fit. How about one of those guys for $5-6M with maybe an option to a potential 4th or 5th rotation slot? Now, Sanchez could be one of those guys at 27 and coming off injury. Everyone wants to talk about Houston and the Astro's approach to things. But the Twins analytics department and Wes Johnson might be new to the scene but we have already seen major changes from the top down. From this list, he could be interesting. Not sure he'd be my first choice, however. Already mentioned a few guys I like as much or more. For 1yr and $4M, I'd be all in on Will Harris. First, especially for $4M, he would do nothing to blow up payroll and trade options or additional signings. You can never have enough pitching, whether rotation or bullpen. But with Romo back, and Clippard, and the rest coming back, and a few other arms on the rise like Alcala, on the rebound like Romero, etc, is there truly room for him? Maybe there is. The rest of this list is a hard pass!

I liked your points very much, even though I'm not joining the ongoing debate. I ad to laugh at your typo of "joke grown roster" at the end. I've made a few crazy typos or had weird auto corrects at times but this one made me chuckle. Like you, and most of us I think, home grown is always best. Even the last Yankees dynasty...and I DESPISE giving them credit of any sort...was built on a core of home grown talent. I also believe FA is a tool to augment your roster, not build it. Marwin and Cruz are great examples of that, for us, last season. While this FO has absolutely not ignored the FA route, Castro, Marwin, Cruz and Now Clippard, etc, they've done it smartly. They've also made some signings that were basically waiver wire in Cron and Pineda that were smart. But you are 100% correct that the Twins, HERE AND NOW, are in a unique position. People can call my an apolgist if they choose to do so, but I honestly believe the FO made a real offer to Wheeler...maybe just a 1st offer...but were simply told "no thank you" early on. There have not only been various reports of such, which I find confounding for a 101 win team playing in one of the best ballparks in all of baseball but also a team that is mostly young and on the rise, but he also turned down a better offer to pitch for a far "worse" team in the White Sox. Bumgarner went out and orchestrated his own special deal with Arizona. So what are the Twins to do in those situations? Understand, none of this is pointed at you, just me pointing out the reality of the situation. There is so much clamoring about the Twins missing, or being stingy, but these two examples are real, and seem to be treated as sour grapes and looking for someone to point fingers at. Right now, the Twins continue to look to add. The are one of only two teams...ONE of ONLY TWO TEAMS...who have made a 4yr offer to Donaldson. Unfortunately, speculation is the Braves are his preferred destination and have a sort of "right of first refusal" at their disposal. Despite mass WANT to see something happen, I'm not overly disappointed in not topping offers for Ryu. He COULD surprise us all. And he is very good when available. But odds and past history would lend percentages WAY to the disappointment side of things. You are absolutely right to reference Morris as a big FA signing at the time in '91, though IIRC, he wasn't exactly speculated as being the ACE performer he turned out to be, (more life left in the arm than some gave him credit for). I would go back further to remind that Blyleven was brought back for the first WS team via trade. I really wish we could all concentrate on tomorrow, and not what didn't happen, for various reasons. Seems we're kicking rocks at this point. As you accurately state, the Twins are in a unique position right now. And i apologize after 17+ pages of so much debate and frustration being vented if I missed an opinion, but what would you do at this point?

I also prefer more than 1-2yrs. Everyone should. Which makes we wonder all the more about an "under the wire" acquisition like Odorizzi was. I fully confess the FO is a hell of a lot smarter than I am on this. Not crazy about a 1yr unless it comes "cheap" with at least some hope of an extension. 2yr doesn't bother me so much. IMO, Odorizzi is a strong extension possibility. Once we remove the humongous contracts of Cole and Strasburg, his 2020 QO deal of $17.8M is pretty much in line. Adding 2-3yrs for something close to that should be expected and warranted and affordable. And he has already stated he'd like to stay.

If you want to debate not signing Ryu for 4yrs and more than $20M considering age and lack of general availability for his career thus far, I can understand. I will disagree, but I understand. The comments about Wheeler and Bumgarner have to stop as they are irrelevant. Sorry, but it's true. Wheeler had a strong preference to stay on the coast and turned down more money from at least one team to stay there. There are various reports that the Twins were NEVER in his plans. If they offered $140M would he have listened? Maybe. None of us knows. But than again, a contract like that is a whole different debate. Bumgarner practically wrote his own deal with Arizona to fit in with their plans and finances. He's taking only $6M this year and deffering another $17M. He left $20-25M to sign where he did. What do we do NOW? The prospect capital is there to bring in a quality SP for the staff. Is that a #2-3 arm and who exactly I don't know. To say there are no possibilities is silly as we have and do see guys move. What if there is another Odorizzi type trade we aren't even thinking about that will pay off just as well? Personally, I'm hoping Donaldson is serious, not playing us, and comes on board. Sign a Wood or Walker for depth. Then go out and cash in a handful of prospect chips, or include Rosario if that is to be, and get that trade arm the FO and Johnson like.