DocBauer

Rooker, a talented and younger prospect, should get the selection before Garlik initially. Not sure when Braxton's opt out takes place. Typically it's a month or so in the season from what I've seen in the past. I'd really like to see him stick around for a while. Tons of talent and still potential, but a good week vs a poor past few seasons doesn't put him above Cave. Won't find a bigger fan for Thorpe and Dobnak than right here, but not sure there is room for both. But the obvious caveat is the health of Thielbar. Really hope Thorpe gets that 4th option year for both team and player. I am a HUGE believer in Kirilloff and his future. I think he's going to be a hitting STUD with decent defense regardless of final spot. But regardless it's up to him to earn his spot. And he can. But with no games above AA except for his one playoff game experience when injury practically forced a promotion, I'm still flabbergasted in regard to all the angst that he might spend a little time at St Paul to better transition.

I'm a sucker as a fan for LH pitchers and the various prosoects that have been signed from Down Under. So no big surprise I've been following Thorpe closely for years and rooting for him. I saw glimpses of his potential late in 2019 and was excited for him in 2020. So you can imagine my disappointment when things unfolded as they did. Because of how last season went, I think a lot of people forget how good he looked before injury and illness wiped out 2 full seasons, and just how good he looked when he came back. We may never know the ful story of what happened to him last year, and maybe it doesn't matter. What DOES matter is how he got his head and body RIGHT again. Did he really gain 30lbs? I doubt it. I believe he re-gained weight he lost and then packed on a little more muscle with his new-found dedication. Regardless, good for him! I really hope he gets tbat 4th option year. Not just for the Twins and roster flexibility, but because it allows him a more linear progression of development in 2021 to perform and be sent back and brought back again if and when he just needs a re-fresher. A 4th option is a blessing for both team and player.

So if things work out this summer, my dad and I are planning on a "double header" where we get a game in ST Paul and Target Field. Also hoping to catch the Kernals at some point. And living here in Omaha, really Excited to catch the Saints here as well. So fans in general is kind of a big deal. But so is number of fans.

Heard about the opening schedule in April and glanced at it just now. It's very different than what we've seen before. The Twins play the Brewers on April first, have an off day, then play 6 straight games. After a 2nd consecutive Friday off, they then play 13 consecutive days. And there is where there could be an issue. But with 3 1/2 weeks left in ST, the couple early days off to stagger the rotation slightly, I'd like to believe the rotation could function normally during that crazy 13 game stretch. In fact, were Happ to be the "5th" rotation option he could throw on the side and pitch with a full 5 days rest between his 1st 2 starts. So unless there is some injury or setback, I think the rotation could be managed those first few weeks without having to go to a 6 man rotation. Things seem to normalize after that and I really dislike going with a 14 man staff and shorten the bench. (You might refer to my post about a larger roster post and comment if you haven't already). Considering how well the Twins adapted in 2020 with injuries I'd like to think they can stagger things well enough during the first 3 weeks with their chosen rotation and an 8 man pen that we would be OK.

Fully appreciate your arguement. But, respectfully, I'm going to disagree. You're right he is a very good pitcher. And you're also right he hasn't reached the mythical true ACE status. And he may never do that. But year to year, you have to appreciate there are only a handful of truly dominate ACE pitchers. But there is a difference from being a quality #1 SP vs being that special ACE. In all my years watching baseball I have seen a handful of the Clemons or Blyleven or Ryan or Hernandez types. Some were studs from day one. Many flamed out before reaching late 20's or 30. Most were good or even very good before stuff and experience, maybe a new team and coach, took them to a different level. Only a few were THAT GUY for YEARS. I think about Stieb and Key from Toronto. I think about Randy Johnson who was very good but not what he became until his late 20's. Despite 1 great season with Pittsburg, Cole never found his greatness until later when he went to Houston. My point is Berrios may never be that GUY, but you very seldom draft or sign an international FA who is that very special #1. Most need time to harness their stuff, learn their craft, and turn in to something special. Again, Berrios may never reach that special level, but he's already good. And he's at just the right age at this time where he COULD be ready to explode in to a true #1, MAYBE a true ACE. I'd rather hedge my investment at this point from what we've seen and what could be rather than risking losing what we already have and what could be.

I'm commenting on this AFTER commenting on the recent Buxton extension idea, so forgive any repetition. The CBA could blow up how things are negotiated contract wise in the future, of course. And I don't want this to sound pro-ownership, because I'm not in either camp, but I think the financial world of MLB has changed even without the whole bizarre covid situation. But analytics are not just part of the on the field product any longer, they are part of the financial structure. While there are, and always will be healthy players who hit their ceilings early and demand huge $ returns, teams are far less likely to hand out massive and long term deals any longer with the return being based on the first few years of a massive deal while "over paying" the final years. Even in the crazy world of professional sports and dollars, there is a wall to be run in to of dimished returns. While the actual yearly $ is variable, I think the types of contracts signed with Polanco, Kepler, Sano and "proposed" by John in his Buxton article may be the new way for teams and players to find fair and common ground. Fair GUARANTEED $ with financial security that exists regardless of production or injury while still allowing for FA around age 30+. Yes, a player could explode and be "underpaid" as a result, but that is also the equitable tradeoff for their guaranteed earnings. Teams are risking floors vs ceilings, much less regression or injury, but hedging production vs cost as well as maintaining roster stability. Berrios is, agreed, in uncharted waters as there simply may not be an adequate comp for his situation. He's very good, young, talented, been a stalwart, and has potential to be even better. In fact, he's just coming to the age where I have always stated experience and talent meet when a pitcher achieves his peak value. Possibly even the rare ACE status that so many yearn for. But despite all he has done, there are at least SOME questions surrounding his full season endurance. That might have been answered in 2020, had it been a normal year and because he began to make some training adjustments to finish 2019 stronger, but it didn't turn out that way. He's never had a significant injury. Hopefully, he never will. I applaud Jose's work ethic, determination and belief in himself. I'm a fan/believer who thinks we haven't seen the best of him yet. And I'm sure there is a part of him, beyond just loving playing, that would like to earn $200M+ in his career. But he also strikes me as an intelligent young man who KNOWS he could, unfortunately, have an injury tomorrow or just never achieve the financial status he might hope for, for whatever reason. And 5yrs of a GUARANTEED $100M+ and still be a FA at age 31 would have to give him pause, IMO. Be gains incredible security for he and his family, while still betting on his future and a second major deal at a still young age. The devil is in the details that I won't get in to here. But between salary, bonuses, etc, 5yrs and $100M is something I'd really like to see both sides as being very fair and just get it done.

I really like this idea. There is mutual and equal risk/reward for both sides. Buxton is protected from further injury lowering his potential earnings while still gaining a great deal of financial security. Meanwhile, the Twins are betting he will be healthy enough to earn that $ and perhaps prove to be a bargain. The recent contracts with Polanco, Kepler, Sano and this idea with Buxton is very forwarding thinking and may be the "new way" contracts will work in today's game. Of course, a new CBA may blow this idea completely up. And there will always be guys who put up insane numbers and are looking for and probably worth max dollars. And there will always be those who want to bet on themselves. But in a new financial world where teams no longer wish to hand out huge dollar values over 6-7+yr term deals...really only gaining a reward in production the first few seasons...this may be the smart play most often for both sides.

NOT going to freak out about Robles at this point. Just a veteran getting stretched out and working on a few things. We should all know this by now. Deliberately not going to debate AK at this point. His future is BRIGHT! Frankly, tired of talking about him. Can't we just let things play out? I don't care it was some B.S. appearance in a ST game, Padulo will NEVER forget the time he got to be on base. KUDOS to Rocco for that!

Excited for the potential of this kid NEXT year. Why does every prospect have to be the "next" whoever? Oh yeah, we want the next future MVP and Cy young to debut at 21yo. I lost the memo. How about this talented kid gets a chance to play a full season of ball and work forward and get called up when even close to ready?

A painful reflection...pun intended...of history of some top prospects having to overcome injury. I hate to sound flippant in any way regarding Lewis's injury, but I'm just not worried about his recovery. I have complete faith in his youth, modern medicine and recovery, as well as his athleticism and attitude. What stinks is the timing of his injury in regard to already missing a milb 2020 season, despite his participation and hopeful/reported improvements at St Paul last year. I truly think he's going to be OK, but set back a full season. Twins history, however, I think most of us will forever wonder how good Kubel and Liriano may have been without a pair of rather devastating injuries. For that matter, if you really want to go down a dark path, why does it seem the Twins endured more concussion injuries to top players more than anyone else? Koskie was pretty special until his. Both of the M&M boys saw their careers curtailed. Oh what might have been without a couple of those unfortunate injuries. I just don't believe in curses, even though a part of me has the "of course, Minnesota fan" angst that seems to be built in being a fan. But I do believe "bad luck" just happens sometimes. But Sano's injury, Arraez and Kirilloff the same, has not come back to derail their careers. I expect the same for Lewis.

I tend to agree. The power is there and so is the sweet swing. I call a mulligan first a lot of guys concerning 2020

While I can see several variations to the daily lineup...and we will because Rocco mixes it up often...its time for Max and his power to slide down to a "better" RBI slot with his XB power. Arraez and Polanco should/could be at the top of the order based on past history of just being good hitters, decent OB, and good bat control with few SO. Now, I like Arraez a little better, but both can do the job well, IMO. Personally I'd like to see both at the top of the order most days and have Donaldson move down from the 2 hole. The caveat being just how many days will BOTH be in the lineup? And also, how much do they like Donaldson hitting 2nd, and how much does he really WANT to hit there? I want/believe in having an OB table setter of some sort ahead of the best bats, even in what could/should still be a very deep lineup. That brings us back to a combination of Arraez and Polanco in the #1 spot. If Donaldson hits #2, there are arguements to be made for Cruz and Kepler in the 3-4 spots either way. Sano probably plugs in at #5. An interesting thought brought up on a recent Gleeman/Geek podcast was Kirilloff hitting between Donaldson and Cruz if Kepler continues to bat #1. Again, interesting. But I'd rather see him face less pressure as a rookie hitting 6th or so. Still confused and wondering about Arraez playing at least SOME LF despite rumors they aren't really looking at him there. I think that's a mistake as you need/want him in the lineup most days batting leadoff.

As alluded to, I expect peaks and valleys when it comes to Sano's offense. I am HOPING that at 28yo, ready to go, he's ready to even out those peaks and valleys. While I may seem overly forgiving, like to many players in the league, I put little stock in much of his 2020. What I am focused on is his 2019 once he was healthy. Yes, he was streaky still, but his numbers and projected numbers are tantalizing. Defensively, except for a few goofs that can be ironed out with coaching and more experience, I thought his defense was just fine. Better than fine. His scoops were excellent, as I expected, the arm is still there though used far less. Now, he absolutely needs to avoid rolling his teammates on foul balls, but that is also fixable. Rooker has played 1B in the minors and college. IIRC, he also saw time at 1B last spring. Kirilloff can also figure in there. I also have no problem with Astudillo at 1B if he's on the roster. An interesting thought, to me, is Arraez getting time there on occasion. In the past, Hocking played some there and Adrianza also adapted well as a fill in. Of course, Hocking and Adrianza may have had better overall gloves, but I think it's something that should at least be considered.

I don't like revisionalist thinking when it comes to re-examing drafts, especially the baseball version, because nothing in life works that way. And every team gets it right and every team gets it wrong. You hope your team gets it right more often, that's how you build a quality team/system. There was, to my knowledge, no way the Twins could have predicted the internal ailments that have plagued Gordon. Those have probably held him back more than anything. (Supposedly he has that under control, but probably assisted in his awful covid bout). I wasn't thrilled about his selection...and really wanted Turner who slid down some draft boards after a down year IIRC...because 50-55 grades across the board for Gordon didn't excite me or explain his high stock, even though I understand projectability. But some early glimpses here and there made me feel much better about his selection. He almost certainly would have been called up before Arraez in 2019 but for an injury. Ankle? Bad timing for him and also unfortunate, from Gordon's situation, that Arraez was more than ready. Regardless, Gordon can't be held at fault for his 2020. But at the same time, his 2019 performance can't be ignored. Just how good he can be is a mystery still being untangled at this point. But the FO hasn't been keeping him around just because he was a top selection from the previous administration. He's around because they still potential if he is "right". Now, we can discuss all day long as to whether his ceiling is a starting infielder or a utility piece, but they obviously believe he has the potential to at least be the latter. And "disappointing" selection or not, if he turns out to actually be a solid, versatile bench piece, there is still value in that.

Rogers is still relatively young, healthy, and I saw nothing so out of whack in 2020 to make me believe he had just "lost it". He just didn't have a very good season. A season that was essentially 1/3 of a normal year. Same is true for a lot of guys. I haven't doubted him going in to 2021. But the initial results are positive news regardless. Now, let's see Robles look like his pre-2020 season self and I'll start to feel really good.

100%! There are a couple of late blooming/arriving players we could discuss by the names of Dozier and Cruz. Dozier arrived at 25yo. Rooker did the same. (Just turned 26 this past November). Except for 7 PA in 2005, Nellie didn't really debut until 2006 as a 26yo. His breakout season wasn't until 2009 when be was 29. I am by no means directly comparing Rooker to those two by projecting any sort of similar career, but I find them an interesting comp because Cruz is still playing with the Twins and Dozier has been in the news as a former Twin announcing his retirement and is part of another front page OP currently. What's wrong with Rooker AND Kirilloff being good, productive Twins? For that matter, toss in Larnach. There is a very good chance this will be Cruz's last season as a Twin. There is room to play all 3 of these young guys, plus Kepler and Sano, between 3 positions and the DH spot. Now, there could absolutely be a trade of someone at some point. But what's wrong with being greedy in this case. Absolutely nothing.

Battle between Rooker and Garlik? Nope. Not unless Rooker spikes himself somehow. It's Rooker AND Kirilloff with only Arraez on the infield bench, OR, an extra infielder and ONE of Rooker and AK to BEGIN the season. Garlik is depth to begin the season. WAY, WAY too early to worry about any of the "extra" 5-7 bullpen options brought in to make any opinion. I'm just happy and excited that I can look at that many arms who have a chance to potentially contribute. It wasn't so long ago that the AAA pen was filled with guys to just help the AAA team. No BS, Anderson, Hamilton, etc, there is a collection of arms mostly 25-27yo that could work with Johnson and Twins instructors/coaches and actually improve and "find themselves" and contribute. That's where depth comes from. Remember a year ago when people were asking "who the hell is this Wisler guy"? So now we have 5-7 guys who could be "that guy" but we made a huge mistake letting him walk? Not sure that's true at this point.

Repeating a couple things I posted in other threads this evening: Thorpe: Very encouraging news about him physically as well as mentally/emotionally coming in to the season. Always been a supporter and fan of his. Yes, because he's LH and Australlian, lol. But LH pitchers who can top 90 and get K's don't grow on trees. Despite his aweful 2020, personally and professionally, the Twins stuck with him. Why? Because of what I just stated but also because despite losing two full milb seasons the kid just turned 25yo this past November. And his milb numbers since coming back were very encouraging and pretty matched what he had done previously. His final ML numbers in 2019, SSS were nothing great. But if you actually watched his appearances you saw flashes. In fact, there were a couple appearances where he looked pretty good before being extended to "take one for the team " that helped skew his numbers negatively. We don't really know what happened to him in 2020 and we may never know. But does it matter in the long run? If we never saw him in 2020, how many would be talking about his milb career, his toughness to overcome injury and illness and his mediocre 2019 but showing potential? But he and his potential should be defined by 2020? Please! Now, it's up to him to continue this rebound and growth in 2021 and accept a demotion to St Paul, because it's going to happen at some point. But right now, you couldn't ask for a better rebound to reclaim his status as a prospect than what we are seeing. At worst, the kid has a chance to be a very good bullpen option if the rotation never works out. Rooker: What has he done to NOT get a shot at playing time? Kirilloff is going to a STUD IMO, but still hasn't played above AA except for 1 playoff game last year. But letting Rooker, Arraez and even Cave open 2021 playing LF and letting the Twins keep an extra infielder for depth and protection is a mistake or some obvious attempt the manipulate service time? How? If Kirilloff has an amazing ST, then let him have the job. But here's a question, if he starts slow and gets sent down, is that the Twins manipulating his service time? Or is that just playing with the roster? Rooker and Kirilloff can BOTH make the roster if they only have Arraez as infield depth. OR, they could keep another bench option and keep just one of their young OF to start the season. So if they keep Rooker to give him a shot they are suddenly playing games? Once again...PLEASE! They are trying to have what they believe as the best 26 man roster to begin the season knowing it will change during the year.

I'm not certain how I feel about the pen right now. I trust the FO and Johnson and how they have developed the pen each year thus far. I look at last year's group compared to now and I have to ask myself if the guys on hand are as good, better, or worse? I trust in Duffey, Colome and a bounceback from Rogers. I look at Robles's career and wonder how we can't expect good things bouncing back from 2020? May and Romo are replaced by Colome and Robles. I guess I feel this is a wash. I'm OK there. I think Stashak looks good and really liked the way Thielbar performed. My quandary comes beyond that. Can we replace what Clippard did? Does someone step forward and continue to develop? Alcala looks like he has a shot to be a difference maker. There are options, rotating options at that, to fill out long relief at least. There is a difference between quality vs quantity and I get that. But from Anderson to Hamilton and the rest of the invites that should make up the St Paul pen, there are about 7 guys all mid to late 20's that offer some intrigue in their stuff if unlocked. Some even have at least a little ML experience. Right now, all things considered, I'm going with a solid B+ to begin the year with easy potential to be an "A".

Unfortunately, this all echoes the various offseason discussions we've already had about Garver previously. He has a good eye, a smooth, quick and compact stroke with power. He's hit in college, the minors and even his rookie year in MLB. While I don't expect him to perform at the amazing level he did in 2019, he's going to be just fine. I can't describe how impressed I was with Jeffers, SSS or not. He wasn't playing in meaningless games either. My only concern in just lack of experience and will he make necessary adjustments quickly. Whether you like Astudillo or not, he is fine as a 3rd catcher who has shown he can hit some as well. Telis has experience, some hit ability and at least some ML experience. I don't believe he would embarrass himself. Rortvedt, IMO, just needs a little more time and I hope he isn't rushed. The defense is there. There is power potential. He needs time and experience to hone the hit ability. He's shown flashes. Agree and disagree about adding lower catching depth. You always want to draft a solid backstop of two every year. But from past drafts and international signings, they have added a few guys recently. The problem us they are so young and didn't play last year so we aren't really sure what we have.

WAY TOO EARLY speculation, but an extension for Simmons before the year is done?

Bless you for putting in that much research! Lol With luck, everyone gets to see their top SP be healthy for MOST of the season. Your top 3 ALL have 30-32 GS. But we all know that doesn't happen, right? In 2020 the Twins had one of the best staffs in MLB and they still spent half of it filling in the 4th and 5th spots. We're in agreement on depth. What I love most is what's behind the initial depth. Dobnak and Thorpe could be/are nice. Second half of the season with Duran, Balazovic and Chalmers...wow.

Sorry Matt, you started to lose me at 56 drafts and further lost me when you looked at a 3yr model of making an appearance at the ML level. First of all every selection, every player is different than every other player. Second, how can we possibly, accurately, quantify 56yrs of 1st picks, at different positions, considering how many washed out or barely made it? Third, medical procedures and recovery have not only changed in 56yrs, they have changed in 20yrs, 10yrs, even the past 5yrs. And each injury by itself is different. As is the recovery for each individual. So how about we just focus on Lewis directly? THE BAD: He will miss all of 2021 after not being able to play in 2020. This is terrible, aweful news for Lewis and the Twins. There is no positive here. His career is now set back at least a full year, coming off a missed 2020 as well. He's going to lose, arguably, two full seasons of development for things not his fault. THE GOOD/POSITIVE: He is super talented and had a great debut in 2017 with an even better 2nd season in 2018, even reaching A+ for about 1/3 of the year. Despite battling some nagging injuries early on in 2019, he showed enough when getting healthy to advance to AA as a 20yr old. He then went to the AFL where he bounced around positionally due to the other talented players on the roster, and played and hit so well he was the AFL MVP! We have no idea how he looked or how much he learned and improved in 2020 at St Paul, or instructional league, but at least he was playing, getting coached, etc. At 21yr old he was primed to begin 2021 at AA with thoughts he would spend at least part of the year at AAA getting ready for 2022. That's pretty heady stuff for a 21yo! There is a very reasonable chance he is ready for instructs next fall. Which means there is a very reasonable chance he's ready for Wichita to begin 2022 and ready to go. No matter how talented, no matter belief in his skills and development, I've never bought in to the FACT he was going to be ready at 22yo in 2022 to be the opening day SS. Maybe he would have been. Water under the bridge. But that in any way his career is de-railed because he won't be ready until age 23 or 24 is nonsense. My $.02 And RX.

While obviously a Twins fan, a homer, and possessing a bit of an optimistic eye, I'd like to believe I can look at things with an eye that is also honest. I don't disregard the Dirty Sox first 3, but I think our top 3 match up in an equal basis. Add in what appears to be better depth from the 4 spot on down, I'd rank our staring staff a solid B+ as well. Maeda could and probably will regress some. But even with that he is a top flight SP. Keeping it simple, his ERA could blow up a 100 points and he'd still better than most unless his peripherals just sky rocketed. And I don't buy the IP concern some have. He topped 190 IP in Japan 5 times and 175+ twice. And while he only topped 175 IP once with the Dogers, he was also moved to the pen for depth every year beyond that. In fact, it could be argued that his arm has actually been saved some wear and tear as a result. Berrios has even better stuff and even better potential. Frankly, I constantly find myself frustrated at the lack of belief some have in the not yet 27yo. He's a 2 time All Star selection who's had some issues the 2nd half of his seasons, including each of those All Star years. I get it. But it feels like those 2nd halves are the only thing some people focus on, and not the flashes of greatness he has also displayed. In the 2nd half of 2019 he began the initial changes to his in-season routine to maintain better endurance. In other words, not following his normal and very rigid workout routine. And he actually finished 2019 strong after a couple poor outings. 2020 was going to be, hopefully, his best season to date as he and the Twins had laid the groundwork of change the previous year. We all know 2020 was odd for so many reasons! And ironically...reportedly making a few tweaks to his stuff...he finished stronger than he began the year. Still not 27yo until May I 100% believe we have yet to see the best of Berrios. I am not talking Cy Young, MVP or any additional hyperbole, but he is young, talented, dedicated and determined. As is, right now, I'd argue he'd fit in the top 3 of most any rotation in MLB. Pineda, after a bit of a ramp-up coming off surgery, was good to great in 2019 until his suspension. (Let's please not feel the need to re-visit speculation on that topic again). And he was good/great again in 2020 when back on the bump. The guy still has decent stuff, tons of experience, has made adjustments, knows how to pitch, and has been good/great with the Twins. The ONLY concern I have is a pair of interrupted seasons that might require the Twins to "nurse" him a bit to get 30 GS and 160+IP. I still may prefer Odorizzi over Happ. And I admit I didn't see that one coming. After a lot of reading and review and reflection, I really kinda like him as the #4. Guy is solid. Man, I HATE the "if healthy" caveat. It always seems to suck the energy out of the conversation. But every year there is someone who just "gets right" physically and does well. Shoemaker could be that guy in 2020. BUT...IF HEALTHY...he could be a steal as the #5 starter. We're talking a veteran #5 SP with quality numbers across the board when he is actually on the hill. This is exactly the kind of flier that should be taken for the end of the rotation. I like Dobnak. I think the Twins do also. Remember, good results for the most part and only 70+ IP thus far. I like Thorpe better...now that his head and body seem to be in order again...over Ober, but am not dismissing Ober as a possible contributor. Add in a couple live/electric arms that may be ready by the second half of the year, I like the depth here.

No Duran to start? I find that at least somewhat surprising.