Mike Sixel

That's why they have big giant studies that look at all possible outcomes, like success, failure, double plays, hits after you give up on bunting, etc. So we don't have to post all the individual outcomes and address them all independently.

well, 49% success at sac bunts, not at hitting for a hit. Not sure what you mean, actually.

they try more often, and they fail more than they succeed. That seems like a bad formula. But then, I was never a math major.

Interesting. I had read it was a lot more than that, compared to the AL average. Thanks for the info. Still hate it. The fact that the Clevelands are that far out front does suggest that perhaps this FO likes it more than the public would think. Kind of gets to my other point, I'm not sure many managers do all that much all that differently, over 162 games....

nicely played!

that was a general statement on averages, not on Molitor in specific. Like, the average temperature in a hospital being 98 degrees doesn't tell me much.....

I'm assuming they have conversations with him all during the year......and that he likes to bunt no matter what the math says. Some people just believe things, no matter what science/math say....

I know Eno Sarris has said he's tried, and he wrote an article on it a year or two ago. I think there are really two big issues: 1. Much, if not most, of their work is not in game strategy or tactics, but in leading a group of people day by day. That's hard to measure, especially if you don't have day to day access to the team, and you don't know which processes he controls vs the FO. Also, even if a team had some kind of internal measures of employee satisfaction or something, we'd never know about them. Culture and that stuff is hard to measure, and I'd bet MLB clubs aren't exactly at the fore front of that measurement. 2. Much of the success is really player driven. Even when you make the right decisions, it often doesn't work. Because the sample sizes are small for tactics, it's hard to measure. Take bullpen usage. I know Sarris tried to figure out if there was an issue with having RPs warm up, but not be used, or warm up in 2 innings. But, that data isn't kept anyplace, but it could have a big impact on that RP's performance. Or, take lineup construction. Studies show it might matter 1-2 games a year, maybe 1-2 more at the extremes. Since most of the time a manager will get things right, it won't matter much. That's really the issue, I think. There isn't much difference in how managers really act, so there isn't much data that shows anything other than the normal way to work. And, when a manager does something that isn't normal, it is only done a few times a year probably, so there isn't enough outcome differential for it to matter when compared to other managers. What's interesting about that, is that manager decisions, over the year, probably wash out a lot. But, in the context of the moment, they probably matter more than we know. People also tend to recall when things go horribly wrong when a move is made, but rarely remember when they go right (as expected most of the time). Yes, Molitor's love for the sacrifice bunt is painful. And yes, it might have cost them a run here and there. But, when you average it all out over the year, it comes out in the wash. That's why I actually like measurements that try not to take averages over the year, but look at discrete outcomes in a game. But even those are tiny differences usually. And even those wash out when you add them up (some negative, some positive). those are my theories, anyway.

excellent use of narrative, btw. It put a smile on my face.

Baseball players aren't heroes.

Edit to the above stats*: blyleven as a Twin: 55.7 fWAR Kaat: 53.3 Killibrew: 66.3 Carew as a Twin: 56.9 Mauer: 48 *includes Senators time, but I left off the all time leader, who was never a Twin....

and yet, look at his fWAR just as a Twin compared to Mauer's.....

Carew put up 57 fWAR as a Twin, in less years than Mauer has played in MN....and Mauer is 9 fWAR behind right now. Killibrew put up 66. btw, JUST AS A TWIN, Blyleven put up 50.4 fWAR! He had a 10.8 fWAR season! I think Kaat put up around 50 fWAR as a Twins also

David Ortiz played 1 year here, as did Thome? But I get your general point....

I like the stats, and ignoring baserunning to determine best Twin ever..... It's Carew, and it's not close, IMO. Followed by Killibrew. Then a huge gap. ****I'm looking at full careers, not just as Twins. ******None of that takes away from Mauer as one of the great players in their history, btw....as for his defense, I think we read a lot about his inability to get the low strike relative to some other catchers.

Nunez.....

I certainly agree that if he was RH, he might be up right now. And I agree, we don't know, I just have my doubts.

Well, I did say "agreement", I'm assuming that means some amount of money. He might also want to be in the US, who knows?

I know* that Eric L on Fangraphs has said that if people think Badoo's power is legit, he'll make some top 100 lists, or just miss. *or maybe KLAW, or someone else on FG, but I think it was Eric

there are stats that do this already, w/o trying to parse out the earned runs....

I just don't think Palka is a hitter at the MLB level, so I'm not sure I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if Park and the Twins came to an agreement to let him go back after this year, if he wants.

I too prefer Escobar over Adrianza, or Goodrum.

well, I got the not traded part right.....

Ditto on the game write ups! thanks.

Hey. I tried pizza, fires, and music..... And now to eat dinner soon....