Mike Sixel

I'm not trying to be positive or negative. I'm trying to look at his they do compared to everyone else. It's been four years of drafts, since zero people picked in 21or22 played in 22. I think people think they've had a lot more time than they've had Also, this is 100% why I trade Kepler, Arraez, and Polanco for pitching.

I have issue being critical. Clearly. That's different than negative. Also, I kind of like enjoying a win for a bit. YMMV.

I can't disagree with that take. But it is surprising how few teams have brought up great pitchers the last four years.

At a glance, the majority come up three or more years after being drafted. But I have those numbers and can do the math. A huge percent of pitchers don't actually pitch all that well after their debut. Some due to injury.

How else can we judge if they are bringing up pitchers at the same rate as other teams? By looking at players that debut after they got here. I haven't looked past the rookie year because that's a bleep ton of work. You have to figure out when a guy came up, then look at all his years after that .... And see when they were acquired.

One of the worst humans ever. No thanks.

No, I said those guys are part of a pipeline. The pipeline includes your AAA and backup players, doesn't it? Maybe not, maybe it now only includes proven MLB players. Like Joe Ryan? And yes, Sonny Gray was a number 2 pitcher. Or, at worst, a number 3. Enlow had surgery, and just came back last year. I'm not sure how that's a development issue. Want to bet on SWR being a number three or better more times than not (unless hurt) over the next 5 years? How much time have they had? They have had 2017, 18, 19 and 20 drafts by your definition. 4 years. How many starters do you expect in four years (and hitters too)? Because no one from 21 or 22 drafts is a legit starting pitcher in the majors.

Of the players in the list in 2019 (all rookies, not those taken after 2016).....5 total are still with the team that drafted them and had at least one more year with an ERA under 4.5. That's it. Five players. Quite a few missed at least one full year to injury since then. Some are in the minors already. Many moved to RP. Only one of the three that came into the league after 2016 was good any year after that, and that was an international signing, which, let's be real, that wasn't happening in year one most likely (pro signing). That's it. One.

Dobnak was counted in 2020, by they way....... I'm still trying to figure out an easy way to look at every pitcher drafted since 2017.....but I don't pay for subs to the sites that might give me that.

I don't understand how it doesn't count they were smart enough to trade for Ryan, but check it out......check out my next article, wherein I show Winder to actually be a success by your criteria. Oh, and Dobnak.

This front office came on after the 2016 season. Their first draft was in 2017. The first year a player could even conceivably come up and play is 2019, but that's a stretch, isn't it? But, to be harsh, let's look at starting pitchers that have come up in the last four years! For 2019, 2021, and 2022….I filtered on 50 innings pitched. For 2020, I filtered on 30 innings pitched. Let’s look a bit at each year. 2019. 28 rookie starting pitchers went at least 50 innings. Two were drafted after 2016, and one was an international signing. So, the Twins had a shot at three of them. 2020 Uh, odd year, but what the hey. 19 guys pitched at least 30 innings as a starter. Two were international signings. Five were drafted after 2016. So the Twins had a shot at 7 of them. 2021 35 starting rookie pitchers went 50 or more innings. Three were international signings. 19 were drafted after 2016. Twins had a shot at 22 of them. 2022 32 rookies went at least 50 innings. 10 were drafted before 2017. The Twins had a shot at 22. That’s it. This FO could have drafted (or signed an international player) 54 starting pitchers that actually pitched more than a handful of games as a rookie. Oh, and one of the ones this FO didn’t have a shot at is Griffin Jax. Another is Chris Paddock. Both of them are in MN. They do have Dobnak, Ryan, Winder, and Ober from that 54. So, now we are down 50 they didn’t get. I don’t have the time to analyze how many of those were drafted before the Twins even picked….so it is likely slightly less. Also, they do have to draft some hitters, they can’t just draft pitchers. How many have other teams drafted and developed since 2017, you ask? Good question! Nine teams have 3 or more rookie starting pitchers that have gone at least 50 innings in their rookie year drafted since 2016. MN is one of those, with 4. KC has 5, and ATL and Cincy have 4. Five teams have drafted a player that pitched at least 50 innings as a starter (drafted or signed after 2017). That’s it. (actually, three pitchers have changed teams in that timeframe, so the numbers might be off a couple for a team or two). How good have any of those rookies actually been, you ask? I’m going to arbitrarily pick 4.5 ERA as the cut off. Of the 55 rookie pitchers drafted or signed after 2017…. 29 pitchers had an ERA under 4.5 in that time as starters. All 4 MN pitchers were better than that as rookies. Atlanta has three. KC has three. No one else has more than 2. BTW, Cleveland has one. As does Tampa. Let me know if you want more information. I have most of the data (only for their rookie years though).

I'm about 25% done actually analyzing every rookie SP for the last few years also.....thanks,

I have no idea why those two have anything to do with Buxton, frankly. I didn't start this train....

Definitely the most frustrating managerial decisions for me last year.

When I was younger, I felt that way. Now? Being right about sports doesn't do it for me. I'd rather enjoy the highs and be ok with the lows.

I'm not sure what people expect. I also don't agree that filling the front of the line from outside doesn't count as filling the pipeline. Let's look at the Twins pitching pipeline..... The goal is to have good pitchers, if you draft them, sign free agents, or trade for them. An obsession over how they fill the pipeline seems like it is looking at reasons not to like or to like a FO, rather than looking at if they have good pitchers. Zero players drafted in the last two years are in the majors, they haven't had 6+ years to fill the MLB roster. Zero minor league pitchers that they inherited are good starting pitchers anywhere in the majors. Outside Twins' territory, no more than 1 or 2 were ever projected by analysts to be starting pitchers. They also had to fill offensive issues. They can't only draft pitchers (just look at last year's OF debacle with all the injuries for evidence of that). They traded part of the pipeline, the 18th overall pick a couple years ago, for a number 2 starter. He put up good numbers last year, but wasn't healthy enough to pitch quite enough. If he continues the last two years or so, they'll have traded a HS pitcher 2-3 years from the majors for 2 years of a very good starter. That is a good trade when your team is good (as it would have been last year with average health), but an average to bad trade when your team isn't quite good enough. If they are out of it at the deadline, they'll get a lesser prospect back than they traded, but them's the breaks. To be clear, I think dealing a HS pitcher for a number 2 starter is a good trade. YMMV. They traded two months of a player they didn't need anymore for 6.5 years of a number 3 starter. How filling the pipeline from outside doesn't count, I don't know. But this was a great trade. Ryan was a number three last year, as a rookie. They traded for Mahle. This one is controversial for many. I get it. But, if your team is in the playoff hunt, and you can trade numbers of prospects for a number 2/3 type with 1.5 years left, I get it. There wasn't a lot to choose from during the trade deadline. It was him or the guy NYY traded for (who was also hurt, but I'm sure their FO is better). I am good with going for it when your team is in the hunt. This was the issue so many fans complained about Ryan never doing, then they do it, and those same fans complained. Can't please everyone. They have Ober and Varland. Yup, Ober got hurt. If he's healthy, he looks like a 3/4 or so. Varland looks like a 4 that will look like a 3 some days. You know, sometimes guys get hurt. They have SWR (traded a guy that wanted a six year deal for him and Martin....the Twins have zero six year deals to pitchers in their history). He's part of the pipeline. Saying he hasn't proved anything yet seems odd. The idea of a pipeline is that you have good players in the minors ready to step up (like Varland last year). They have Winder, Balazovic (sp?) (who going into last year most considered a future starter or RP at worst). They have Henriquez, who is like 22? They have Paddock (not my favorite risk, but they may get lucky). They have Maeda (great trade that first year. I think he's a RP this year). They have Headrick and Enlow further down, and a couple more younger than them. This doesn't consider moving Duran to starter......nor does it look at their RPs at all. Your starting pitchers: Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Varland (three of those guys are controlled for 4 more years or more) Your backups: SWR, Winder, Jordy B, Henriquez, Maeda (maybe) (all but Mahle still have rookie eligibility) Your longer term backups: Enlow, Headrick, Paddock That's the best staff this team has had in a long time (outside 2019). They've basically added Ryan, Ober, and Varland in the last two years. It took awhile, but they look to have some depth behind those. My biggest issue? Not signing one of the elite SPs last year. I'd love to have someone better or same as Gray on this roster for the next 4-5 years. A proven guy. I'm not expert on their whole system, I'm sure I'm missing part of the pipeline. But, this system, top to bottom, is much better than it has been in years. I mean, Bundy and Archer were the two worst starters by ERA last year....and they are replaced by Ober and Varland...... If you think that's not a pipeline at all, what do you expect from a team? If you don't think filling the front of the pipe thru trades count, I doubt we can agree on how to measure if a FO puts together a good staff, which is the goal.

Very fair. I'm just not sure they are below average. Detroit, KC, Colo, Pitt, Cincy, LAA come to mind with zero thought. That already puts them no worse than 23rd and I've spent zero seconds considering the rest of the league.

If I'm dealing Buxton, I'm worried about the next 9 years.....not the timeframe those two matter to the roster. But, that's just me.

If only there were more than 1 year left in MLB, and you weren't counting on only that......

Truth.

Bundy and Archer had the two highest ERAs on the team among starting pitchers.......they really needed to call up Varland sooner. They literally ran out their 6-8th best OFers at the same time for multiple weeks. Injuries killed them. They could be better next year just with average health. Not counting on everyone, but average health. Also, Ryan was a rookie. Jeffers was hurt. They have a much better catching tandem. Do I expect them to be great? No. Would I be shocked if they were .500 or so, not at all.

How is this a rumor? It is news, and was reported when Gallo was signed, wasn't it? I have zero, nada, nil, issue replacing Contreras with Gallo.

Sure, if you can get a really good pitcher for Arraez and Kepler and one decent prospect, sure. Good luck with that. What team that has a good pitcher in the majors wants two veteran hitters?

These are some random thoughts I had this past week: The FO won't sign an elite player to a deal for more than a year or two. That puts them out on most elite players. They also won't sign the next tier down. The lone exception in THE HISTORY of the team is Donaldson, and he was traded after two years. However, I don't put this on the FO. If EVERY FO acts the same way for the history of your team, it is on the owners that hire them. Need more yachts, y'all. This FO is different then the Ryan one (and more like the McPhail one), though. This FO will trade prospects for vets. This has worked, and not worked so far. I think the FO is about median/average compared to other FOs. On the one had, they are learning on the job. On the other hand, well, the last two years have not been great. You can have one elite player and two rookies, or two Gallos and a retread RP. I'd prefer the elite player. Good luck signing below average players year after year (no long term deals here) and being right over and over....good luck. Oh, and 10 years from now? 28MM in dead money means you don't sign and average FA. You lose one average FA for three years to sign a great player to a long term deal. I know what I'd prefer. Teams don't drop ticket prices. They don't save money for next year's budget. They don't have a budget floor (if they don't spend money on players, they don't pass the savings to staff or minor league players). Teams that don't spend pocket money. A team that has just traded multiple prospects away can't trade for 1 or 2 year rentals, not difference makers. They need their prospects for the future, since they won't sign elite players. I don't understand why people on this board want to deal prospect(s) for a SS that they hope Lewis replaces in three months or less. Roll with Farmer and if Lewis isn't healthy this year and Lee moves to 3B, then worry about SS next year. They aren't one short term rental SS from being great. That last sentence is key for me. This team isn't a couple short term players away. Frankly, at this point? Arraez, Kepler, Polanco are all on the trade block. I want prospects or MLB players with 4+ years control for them. If Buxton would go to Miami or Atl or someplace, I'd even deal him at this point. I love Buxton, love him, as a player. But, can you count on him playing even 100 games a year? I realize this is a strange take, and I'm not 100% sure I even agree with it. I'll be posting my thoughts on the pitching pipeline problem separately, as I don't want that discussion lost here. Did I mention I'd rather the team have 1 elite or great player and two rookies, than have 2 Gallo types? To be clear so a certain poster doesn't misrepresent these thoughts like they always do.....I'm not suggesting building a team in FA. I'm not suggesting FA is the only way to win. I'm suggesting one great FA, like everyone here has. One.

Mahle, Kiriloff and Larnach haven't been healthy for two years. Miranda? Sure, if you want to go to maybe 10 million a year. I'd extend Gray, but given this market, he'll want 4 years for at least 20 million a year .... hint....the Twins won't do that for anyone, let alone a pitcher.