Hosken Bombo Disco

Felix Hernandez RP 34 - Doesn't want to share crown with Aquatennial Queen of the Lakes
Josh Donaldson 3B 34 - Loons kinda freak him out
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 36 - No longer very good at baseball
Dallas Keuchel SP 32 - Concerned that North Stars fans still aren't over it
Edwin Encarnacion DH 37 - Weather too cold for imaginary parrot
Alex Gordon CF 36 - Retro baby blue uniforms clash just a little with all his Royal blue gear
Hyun-Jin Ryu SP 33 - Airport not close enough to the west coast
Ryan Zimmerman 1B - Feels like anyone who has been through Zimmerman, MN might not like him right off the bat
Russell Martin C 37 - Has heard a catcher is more likely to be concussed here
Wei-Yin Chen RP 35 - 6.59 ERA in 2019
Rich Hill SP 40 - He's 40
Ben Zobrist 2B 39 - He's 39
Martin Prado 3B 36 - Keeps alpacas in Texas
Mark Trumbo DH 34 - Isn't Nelson Cruz
Marcell Ozuna LF 29 - Sees how Rosario is treated
Nick Castellanos RF - Unbalanced schedule - doesn't want to have to go back to Detroit that much
Yasiel Puig RF 29 - Keeps fainting goats in 49 other states
Alex Wood SP 29 - Insufficient quantities of chiropractors
Trevor Cahill RP 32 - We've got a shot here
Brian Dozier 2B 33 - Never heard of him
Tommy Hunter RP 34 - Insists on being called Tommy, Lord of the North, and that just doesn't fly
Jason Kipnis 2B 33 - Doesn't like state fairs
Kole Calhoun RF 32 - Doesn't want to change his name to Kole Bde Maka Ska
Ivan Nova SP 33 - Longs to reunite with Pittsburgh
Starlin Castro 2B 30 - Likely to sign him and cash in when in gets to 2000 hits
Juan Nicasio RP 33 - Doesn't realize how many good restaurants we have
Todd Frazier 3B 34 - Would prefer not to be around so many lakes
Corey Dickerson LF 31 - Would prefer many more lakes
Jason Castro C 33 - Number of lakes is fine, but would like less fish
Pat Neshek RP 39 - Homecoming is possible
Andrew Cashner RP 33 - Friend of a friend has heard Minnesota "smells a little"
Jason Vargas SP 37 - Too many Jasons already here
C.C. Sabathia SP 39 - Too many C.C.s already here
Cesar Hernandez 2B 30 - Would never live up to Cesar Tovar's precedent
Jonathan Schoop 2B 28 - Never heard of him
Welington Castillo C 33 - Minnesotans would latch on to the "Beef" nickname too much
Dellin Betances RP 32 - Keeps ostriches in New York
Anthony Swarzak RP 34 - Homecoming is possible
Drew Smyly SP 31 - Look at all these free agents left
Derek Holland RP 33 - I honestly didn't think this bit would be this long
Mitch Moreland 1B 34 - Mitch Moreland? More like Mitch Lessland, huh?
Julio Teheran SP 29 - If he's not good enough for Atlanta
Fernando Rodney RP 43 - If he's still throwing, homecoming is possible
Jordy Mercer SS 33 - Is he related to Bobby Mercer?
Billy Hamilton CF 29 - Is he still fast?
Taijuan Walker SP 27 - Let's give it a try, Taijuan.
Sam Dyson RP 32 - I think this bit is over
Brandon Kintzler RP 35 - Yeah, it's over
C.J. Cron 1B 30 - Definitely over
Eric Thames RF 33 -
Steve Cishek RP 34 -
Steven Pearce 1B 37
Jedd Gyorko 3B 31
Pedro Strop RP 35
Kevin Pillar CF 31
Collin McHugh RP 33
Tyson Ross SP 33
Robinson Chirinos C 36
Arodys Vizcaino RP 29
Juan Lagares CF 31
Travis Shaw 3B 30
Yolmer Sanchez 3B 28
Danny Salazar SP 30
Justin Smoak 1B 33
Hector Rondon RP 32
Wilmer Flores 2B 28
Will Harris RP 35
Steven Souza RF 31
Jon Jay RF 35
Matt Adams 1B 31
Jarrod Dyson CF 35
Jimmy Nelson RP 31
Brock Holt 2B 32
Brian Duensing RP 37
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B 34
Addison Russell SS 26
Chad Bettis SP 31
Yoshihisa Hirano RP 36
Clay Buchholz SP 35
Wade LeBlanc RP 35
Lonnie Chisenhall RF 31
Shawn Kelley RP 36
Matt Duffy 3B 29
Nate Jones RP 34
Tony Cingrani RP 30
Hernan Perez 2B 29
David Phelps RP 33
Matt Albers RP 37
Justin Bour 1B 32
Matt Moore SP 31
Jose Iglesias SS 30
Martin Maldonado C 33
Jonny Venters RP 35
Craig Stammen RP 36
Jared Hughes RP 34
Edinson Volquez RP 36
Logan Forsythe 2B 33
Derek Dietrich 2B 30
Brian McCann C 36
Hunter Pence RF 37
Neil Walker 2B 34
Gio Gonzalez SP 34
Domingo Santana RF 27
Devon Travis 2B 29
J.C. Ramirez SP 31
Kazuhisa Makita RP
Francisco Liriano RP 36
Devin Mesoraco C 32
Tim Beckham 3B 30
Curtis Granderson LF 39
Kyle Barraclough RP 30
Chris Rusin RP 33
Luis Garcia RP 33
John Axford RP 37
Luis Avilan RP 30
Brandon Guyer LF 34
Ryan Tepera RP 32
Daniel Hudson RP 33
Matt Wieters C 34
Tyler Clippard RP 35
Brandon Maurer RP 29
Jerry Blevins RP 36
Robbie Erlin RP 29
Cory Gearrin RP 34
Ryan Buchter RP 33
Aaron Loup RP 32
Steven Wright RP 35
Jeremy Hellickson RP 33
Dominic Leone RP 28
Dan Otero RP 35
Bryan Hoay C 32
Cory Spangenberg 2B 29
Greg Bird 1B 27
Melky Cabrera LF 35
Kevin Plawecki C 29
Caleb Joseph C 34
Josh Phegley C 32
Nicholas Tropeano SP 29
Jose Lobaton C 35
Gorkys Hernandez LF 32
Adam Rosales 2B 37
Ervin Santana SP 37
Logan Morrison DH 32
Erasmo Ramirez SP 30
Matt Joyce LF 35
Adeiny Hechavarria SS 31
Josh Tomlin RP 35
Ryan Goins 2B 32
Jerad Eickhoff SP 29
Bryan Mitchell RP 29
John Ryan Murphy C 29
Xavier Cedeno RP 33
Tyler Saino SS 30
Cheslor Cuthbert 3B 27
Jesus Sucre C 32
Kelby Tomlinson 2B 30
Andres Blanco 3B 36
Tom Koehler RP 34
Josh Fields RP 34
Javy Guerra RP 34
Fernando Abad RP 34
Ronald Torreyes 2B 27
Guillermo Heredia CF 29
Tony Barnette RP 36
Gordon Beckham 2B 33
J.B. Shuck LF 33
Allen Webster SP 30
Michael Blazek RP 31
Cody Anderson SP 29
Josh Thole C 33
Pat Venditte RP 35
Ryon Healy 1B 28
Elias Diaz C 29
Matt Grace RP 31
Jose Pirela 2B 30
Dan Straily SP 31
Jesse Biddle RP 28
Edubray Ramos RP 27
Kevan Smith C 32
Trevor Hildenberger RP 29
Joey Rickard LF 29
Jacob Barnes RP 30
John Hicks C 30
Daniel Stumpf RP 29
Tyler Olson RP 30
J.T. Riddle SS 28
Aaron Brooks SP 30
D.J. Johnson RP 30
Jacob Nix SP 24
Ryan Burr RP 26
Rajai Davis CF 39
Carlos Gomez RF 34
Tyler Austin 1B 28 EDIT: I'm removing Tyler Austin from the list because dex8425 said he signed with a team in Japan, that it was a pretty good deal for Tyler Austin actually, and that dex8425 is taking any and all wagers that Tyler Austin will rake. Also, I read on mlbtraderumors or on a Doogie tweet that Tyler Austin's girlfriend preferred being near an airport in Japan, so we never had a shot anyway.
Kohl Stewart RP 25
Tim Peterson RP 29
Felipe Paulino SP 36
Hector Santiago RP 32
Eric Sogard 2B 34
Mike Morin RP 29
Homer Bailey SP 34
Blake Parker RP 35
Brian Schlitter RP 34
Brooks Pounders RP 29
Danny Hultzen RP 30
Caleb Frare RP 26
Thyago Vieira RP 27
Ryan Feierabend SP 34
Derek Law RP 29
Jim Adduci CF 35
Jason Adam RP 28
Rob Brantly C 30
Wilkin Castillo C 36
Rico Garcia P 26
Isaac Galloway RF 30
Humberto Arteaga SS 26
Oscar Hernandez C 26
Erick Mejia 2B 25
Deven Marrero SS 29
Ian Gibaut RP 26
Peter O'Brien RF 29
Jace Peterson 3B 30
Yadiel Rivera 2B 28
David Hale RP 32
Tom Milone SP 33
Josh Smith RP 32
Drew Gagnon RP 30
Fernando Salas RP 35
Joe Hudson C 29
Francisco Cervelli C 34
Austin Adams P 33
Joe Panik 2B 29
Ross Detwiler RP 34
Aaron Slegers SP 27
Zac Rosscup RP 32
Chris Owings 2B 28
Robby Scott RP 30
Juan Minaya RP 29
Brad Miller 2B 30
Charlie Tilson CF 27
Mike Gerber OF 27
Kris Negron RF 34
Edwin Jackson SP 36
Tyler Lyons RP 32
Buddy hers RP 32
Jonathan Lucroy C 34
Tim Federowicz C 33
Sean Gilmartin RP 30
Cameron Maybin RF 33
Rookie Davis SP 27
Donnie Hart RP 29
Sean Rodriguez 2B 35
Ricardo Pinto RP 26
Gabriel Ynoa SP 27
Yonder Alonso 1B 33
David Carpenter RP 34
Tayler Scott SP 28
Ryan Eades P 28
Matt Kemp LF 35
Pablo Sandoval 3B 33
Bobby Wilson C 37
Rene Rivera C 36
Nick Vincent RP 33
Juan Centeno C 30
Ryan LaMarre LF 31
Gregor Blanco RF 36
Chris Stewart C 38
Marcos Mateo RP 36
Erik Kratz C 40
Tim Collins RP 30
Jeff Bianchi 2B 33
Rubby De La Rosa SP 31
Josh Edgin RP 33
Jemile Weeks 2B 33
Travis Snider RF 32
Kila Ka'aihue 1B 36
Mike Zagurski RP 37
Shane Robinson CF 35
Cliff Pennington SS 36
Alex Wilson RP 33
Danny Espinosa SS 33
Ricky Nolasco SP 37
Logan Kensing RP 37
Dylan Axelrod RP 34
Johnny Giavotella 2B 32
Duane Below RP 34
J.C. can C 40
Chris Withrow RP 31
Nick Franklin LF 29
Rafael Lopez C 32
George Kontos RP 35
Seth Maness RP 31
Alcides Escobar SS 33
Grant Green LF 32
Neftali Feliz RP 32
J.J. Hoover RP 32
Wilin Rosario 1B 31
Chris Hatcher RP 35
Dan Runzler RP 35
Collin Balester RP 34
Brandon Beachy SP 33
Brandon Hicks 2B 34
Henderson Alvarez SP 30
Juan Jaime RP 32
Alex Torres RP 32
Robbie Ross RP 31
Drew Hutchison SP 29
Zach McAllister RP 32
Cole Gillespie LF 36
Stolmy Pimentel RP 30
Michael Martinez 2B 37
Dioner Navarro C 36
Logan Ondrusek RP 35
Stephen Pryor RP 30
Fernando Rodriguez RP 36
Ezequiel Carrera LF 33
Wilkin Ramirez LF 34
Emilio Bonifacio CF 35
Mark Rogers RP 34
B.J. Rosenberg RP 34
Justin Sellers SS 34
Moises Sierra RF 31
Scott Van Slyke LF 33
Josh Zeid RP 33
Zach Putnam RP 32
Shelby Miller SP 29
David Lough RF 34
Brad Boxberger RP 32
Hector Sanchez C 30

This is a short Blog - kind of a reaction blog set off by the St Louis Cardinals (my favorite NL team). Did you see the headline - 10 runs in the first inning. The Braves were in never never land! What happened. A really good team beat another really good team and did it with fire!
 
The articles say that the pre-game talk by the Cardinal Manager (who the hell is Schildts?) was angry, it pushed the limits and for a while was available on video. ESPN had this article - "In a video that surfaced online Wednesday night, St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Shildt can be seen giving a fiery, expletive-filled speech to his team in the locker room following a win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 5 of the National League Division Series.
"The [braves] started some s---. We finished the s---," Shildt says in the video, which outfielder Randy Arozarena later acknowledged he streamed live on Instagram. "And that's how we roll. No one f---s with us ever. Now, I don't give a f--- who we play. We're gonna f--- them up. We're gonna take it right to them the whole f---ing way. We're gonna kick their f---ing ass."" https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27809815/locker-room-video-shows-cardinals-manager-expletive-filled-speech
 
In contrast our manager felt fine just like Dave Roberts after his Dodgers bombed again. The bombs are not as fun as Bombas, by the way.
 
It reminds me of the Vikings Superbowl bombs. I was so keyed up for them, but as I watched the players they were not. Just going through business as usual. There unflappable coach was stoic and the players were run over by the emotion, if not the talent, of Kansas City, Oakland, Miami, and Pittsburgh. Emotions count.
 
Next year Rocco, I hope the players love you, I hope that they enjoy playing for the Twins, but when you get to the place where the season hinges on the game - get mad, get emotional, play like it is more than a game.

Wondering what fans at Game Three thought of the nightclub atmosphere at the game last night. I thought having a DJ playing "sick beats" and loud, thumping bass for four hours was really grating... but I am an old soul.
 
Last season I really enjoyed my trip to Wrigley to see the Twins play. The PA guy wasn't shouting, the music wasn't blaring and the fans didn't need their hands held the entire game to know if/when to MAKE NOISE.
 
Personally, I think a DJ/pump-up music guy is cool for the pregame but holy cow did that get old after a while last night.
 
Again, maybe I'm just old so I am wondering what others thought.

I became interested in the Astudillo discussion in the resting players topic and wondered about Astudillo's use. I have been thinking about this since his critical hit against Matt Barnes in the Red Sox series.
 
Matt Barnes is a right handed pitcher with the highest k/9 rate in the AL and nearly the highest AL k-rate at 38%. The Twins are tied with the Red Sox 1-1 in the 7th inning. Miguel Sano is in scoring position with two outs. The Twins have 1 hit through 6 2/3. Jonathan Schoop is coming to the plate and in comes Matt Barnes. It is time to pinch hit with a left handed batter or so I thought. They have Polanco and Wade on the bench. They also have Astudillo. Astudillo? Why Astudillo? Kepler is up next. Let's get someone on base. Polanco or Wade must be a better choice. I was certain.
 
Astudillo slaps a single to right field for the Twins second and last hit of the game. The Twins hold on to win 2-1. Lucky decision on Baldelli's part I muttered. The moment stuck with me though. I wondered... "When does Baldelli choose to use Astudillo?"
 
With the help of Baseball Prospectus I looked to the quality of opposing pitcher for each Twin hitter with over 100 PAs. We have heard that the line ups are well thought out and planned. Maybe some hitters have faced a more difficult set of pitchers by design.
 
Not surprisingly the typical pitcher faced profile for a Twin hitter is Polanco. He plays the most. The opposing pitchers he has faced have allowed a .770 OPS resulting in a 105 oppRPA+. More than half of the Twin hitters bunch in the interquartile range of 104-106. Only one Twin batter has faced better than league average opposing pitching this year with a 99 oppRPA+. Willians Astudillo. Astudillo's 746 oppOPS is two standard deviations away from the typical opposing pitcher faced. I don't think this happens by accident or randomly. Baldelli must either be choosing to play Astudillo against more difficult pitching or at least choosing to rest players against a more difficult pitcher.
 
If you are still reading and curious the Twin closest to Astudillo is Arraez at .751 and the only other Twin more than a standard deviation away in this direction. There are two Twins on the opposite end though not near as far from center as Astudillo. Marwin Gonzalez (.779) and Byron Buxton (.781) have seen the pitchers who have given up the highest OPS to the hitters they have faced.
 
Does this or should this give us a different impression on Astudillo's performance at the plate this year?

11 1/2 game lead is huge, losing it by August 10 is terrifying. True, we have time left and Cruz will come back and maybe Buxton too. Jack Cave might be replaced by someone who can do better in MLB from our minor leagues and maybe we will strike gold with one or two pitchers as we allow the entire minor league system to audition for us this year, but still 11.5 games! That is a lead worthy of 7 percent of the season.
 
So come on Twins. Beat the bad teams. I think most have given up on beat the good teams and get into the playoffs where, I am sorry to say, you will only be playing good teams.
Do you remember the 1969 Cubs 4.5 games up going into September and then winning just 1/3rd of their games to finish 8 behind the miracle Mets? I know NY had a great year, but poor Chicago. By the way they had 4 players on that team go to the HOF.
Or our old manager Gene Mauch and his 1964 team? They led by 6 1/2 games with 12 to play. They had Dick Allen and HOF Jim Bunning. They lost 10 Straight and St Louis went to the series! That hurts.
Tied for the lead on the last day of the season the 2007 Mets blew the pennant and the Phillies won. The Mets had Pedro and Glavine in their rotation but went 1 - 6 to finish the season. Then in 2008 they fired their manager part way through the year and had a 3 1/2 game lead with 17 games to go. But losing 10 of 17 is not the way to the World Series.
The 1951 Dodgers had one of the saddest losses - the NY Giants steam rolled right over them with a 37 - 7 ending to the season to tie and a playoff with the home run heard around the world and still being played every year. The Dodgers had been up 13.5 on August 11! Yes that is tomorrow. And then they went to the playoff game - one game to decide and lead 4 - 1 going into the ninth. Ralph Branca - not a bad pitcher - against Dale Long - not a great hitter - and a three run home run destroyed the Dodger's year.
Lets enjoy 2009, the year the Tigers led by 7 games on September 6 over the MINNESOTA TWINS. We won 10 of 11 and Alexi Casilla put us in the playoffs!
In 1978 the Red Sox led by 9 over the Brewers and 14 over the Yankees on July 19th. The Yankees went 52 - 21 and into a playoff. Anyone heard of Bucky Dent? Well the Red Sox fans will never forget him as he ripped the hearts out the Boston team.
2011 the Red Sox again were leading by 9 games over the Rays on September 1 and then played a 7 - 20 final month and lost the pennant to Tampa Bay.
1995 the Angels, who have been a playoff deprived team, led by a familiar 11.5 on August 9 and then the wheels fell off. going 12 - 27 and were put out of the misery by Randy Johnson in a one-game playoff. 1998 they had a 3 1/2-game lead in the division with 19 to play and lost 13 of their last 19.
In 1987 the Blue Jays held a 3.5 game lead with 7 to go and could not win another game. The Tigers went to the playoffs. Where they would face the Twins.
2003 the Mariners had the best record in baseball, but (does this sound familiar?) they played just under 500 ball for the rest of the season and took the off season off.
The 2010 Padres had a last half season collapse and after having just one three-game losing streak all season, the Padres proceeded to drop 10 straight. (Sounds too close to home). With a 6 1/2 game lead on August 25 they came the closest that the poor team could come to Post Season and watched Arizona go to the series.

There are more where these came from. Painful I know but that is baseball. Let's go Twins - this is a list I do not want you to be on.

Biceps Tendinitis in Pitchers Q&A
Heezy1323
 
 
A request was made by a poster for me to write a blog covering biceps tendinitis. This is actually a fairly complicated topic with quite a bit of controversy, but I’ll do my best to share some basic info that hopefully TD peeps will find interesting. There are some technical parts, so apologies for that, but I do think a basic understanding of the anatomy is helpful.
 
Question 1: What is the biceps, exactly?
 
The biceps is a muscle that we are likely all familiar with, lying in the front of the upper arm and used to perform curls and similar exercises. The word ‘biceps’ has a Latin origin meaning ‘two heads’. This describes the upper (or proximal) end of the biceps where there are two tendon attachments.
 
The first is the long head of the biceps which attaches to the labrum at the top of the socket in the shoulder. It then curves over the top of the ball (humeral head) where it exits the shoulder joint and begins its course down the front of the upper arm bone (humerus). At the front of the shoulder joint, it travels through what is called the ‘bicipital groove’ which is an area of the bone of the humerus between two bumps (called tuberosities). This groove is often the site of issues in pitchers (more on this below).
 


 
The second is the short head of the biceps, which originates from a bony projection off the shoulder blade in the front of your shoulder called the coracoid. It travels straight from here to meet up with the long head of the biceps in the upper 1/3 of the arm. There, the tendons join and form the biceps muscle.
 
 
Below this (distally), the muscle turns back into a tendon just above the elbow and a single tendon then travels down to one of the bones of your forearm (called the radius) where it attaches at a bony prominence called the radial tuberosity.


 
Question 2: How is this tendon involved in throwing?
 
This is a great question, and a subject of much debate amongst experts. The short head of the biceps likely has a relatively insignificant role in throwing. The long head (which is the one that attaches inside the shoulder joint) is much more involved in the throwing motion. When throwing at MLB speeds, the shoulder rotates at 7000 degrees per second, which is the fastest known human motion. One can imagine the stress this places on the structures that surround the shoulder.
 
Without delving into the weeds too much, it seems as though the biceps has a role in position sense of the shoulder during throwing, likely a role in stability of the shoulder joint and also helps slow down the arm after ball release.
 
At the other end of the tendon (distal), the elbow changes rapidly from a bent position to a straight position as the ball is released during a throw. In order to keep the bones of the elbow from jamming into each other at a high speed, the biceps muscle fires to slow down this elbow straightening (what we call an eccentric contraction). This allows some of the force of throwing to be dissipated by the muscle (kind of like a shock absorber).
If it seems like that is a lot of jobs for a small tendon/muscle- it’s because it is…
 
Question 3: What happens when someone gets biceps tendinitis?
 
Tendinitis is a fairly broad term and can mean a number of different things depending on the context. With respect to the biceps, a thrower can develop issues at either the upper (proximal) or lower (distal) end of the biceps. The suffix -itis means inflammation, so the general thought is that there is inflammation that develops in or around the tendon.
 
The reasons ‘why’ are heavily debated, but generally there is probably some combination of overuse/fatigue and altered mechanics or muscle imbalances that contribute. It takes a tremendous amount of efficiency of motion and coordination of muscle movements to throw a baseball in excess of 90mph, and any small abnormality can easily be compounded by the sheer number of repetitions and intensity of a typical pitcher. Over time, this can add up to cause damage to the tendon and result in inflammation and pain.
 
Arthroscopic image of normal biceps tendon (left) and inflamed biceps (right)


 
Question 4: How does the player/medical staff separate this injury from other issues that can seem very similar?
 
This can be VERY difficult. Often the player will have pain at the front of the shoulder (in cases of proximal biceps tendinitis) or just above the elbow (in distal cases). A thorough history and exam is performed in order to hone in on the likely problem area.
 
An MRI is ordered in some cases. One of the challenges with this type of issue is that in many cases, an MRI of a pitcher already has some abnormalities on it which are likely adaptive and have been present for a long time (and are not the actual cause of pain). In addition, in many cases the inflammation around the bicep isn’t something that can be clearly seen on MRI. So interpreting imaging studies can be a significant challenge.
 
Usually the exam is (in my experience) the most helpful thing in recognizing biceps tendinitis when it is present. The athlete is usually tender right in the area of the tendon, which is a helpful finding.
 
Question 5: Once a pitcher is diagnosed with biceps tendinitis, how are they treated?
 
Again, there are a lot of variables here. But presuming it is significant enough to affect the performance of the pitcher, they would typically be shut down for a period of time to prevent worsening of the condition. Anti-inflammatory medication may be used. In some cases, injections of cortisone are used to try and decrease the inflammation.
 
With the recent increases in the use of technology, video may be consulted to see if there have been subtle mechanical changes which may have contributed to the issue. Muscle strength can also be tested in various areas around the shoulder to see if weakness is contributing.
 
In essentially all cases, a rehab program will begin that is likely to include strength and flexibility components. When the pain has subsided, a return to throwing program is begun and once complete, the athlete can return to play.
A group out of Mayo Clinic (led by Dr. Chris Camp) recently did a study of pro baseball players (minor and major league) and causes of injury over a several year period. Tendinitis of the proximal biceps was actually the #4 cause of injury with an average return to play time of about 22 days.
 
Question 6: Is surgery ever needed?
 
It is quite uncommon for surgery to be needed for this issue. In fact, in Dr. Camp’s study above surgery was only required in 3% of cases of proximal biceps tendinitis. So clearly most of these cases improve with non-surgical treatment. In addition, surgery for this particular issue has a fairly poor track record and is avoided if at all possible.
 
Question 7: What can be done to prevent biceps tendinitis?
 
Great question, reader. If I knew the answer, we could likely both be millionaires given how common this injury is and the dollar figures involved when a high-priced starter or reliever is on the shelf for this reason.
 
Generally, I believe monitoring the workload of pitchers through the season, doing what you can to ensure they maintain a good off-season program and having a good line of communication with the players are all important. As video analysis and other analytic measures become more popular, my hope is that they can be incorporated into injury prevention as well.
 
Thanks for humoring me on this complex topic. Please feel free to add a request for a future subject in the comments. GO TWINS!!

It’s April 16, 2018. The Twins own a 7-4 record. The front office has added free agents at several key positions to complement an 85-win team from the previous year that earned its first post-season berth in seven years.
 
It's April 16, and despite a string of postponements due to an early spring snowstorm, the team is playing well, and flying to Puerto Rico for an unusual two-game series against their division rivals.
 


Minnesota Twins and Puerto Rico, April 2018 (copyright Brace Hemmelgarn, for Twins/MLB) 
After dropping the first game of the series, native Puerto Rican Jose Berrios pitches 7 shutout innings in the second game, and the Twins win in the 16th inning on a Ryan LaMarre base hit. LaMarre was a minor league signing prior to the season who won a spot on the team with a good spring.
 
With the win, the Twins reclaim first place with an 8-5 record and prepare to fly to Tampa to play a series against the Rays.
 
Then it fell apart.
 
In the first game of that series, free agent relief pitcher Zach Duke failed to touch first base on a toss from Joe Mauer that would have ended the 10th inning; instead, the winning run scored all the way from second base. The Twins lost to Blake Snell in the second game of the series, and in the final game, free agent addition Addison Reed surrendered a 9th inning, walk-off home run to Carlos Gomez.
 
Then the Twins flew to New York for a four game series in Yankee Stadium.
 
After losing the first three games in their typically inept Yankee Stadium way, the Twins had a chance to salvage the series finale. Starter Kyle Gibson held the Yankees to just one hit over 6 shutout innings, and the Twins entered the bottom of the 9th with a 3-1 lead. The first Yankees batter reached when first baseman Logan Morrison, yet another offseason free agent addition, failed to scoop a not-too-difficult short hop throw from Miguel Sano. That baserunner gave the Yankees life. Two batters later, free agent closer Fernando Rodney surrendered another game winning, walk-off home run, a three-run shot by Gary Sanchez.
 
The Twins flew home from New York on a seven game losing streak. They tacked on another dismal loss to the Reds, extending their losing streak to eight. Their record sank to 8-13 and they would not climb back to .500 for the rest of the 2018 season.
 
The free agent acquisitions prior to 2018 were meant to complement the young corps of players that had been developed internally in the organization, but instead, the free agents seemed to torpedo the season.
 
This season, so far, is different. Much different. Those players from 2018 are elsewhere, and the players brought in by the front office for 2019 are making the plays.
 
First baseman C. J. Cron, coming from Tampa Bay, has proven just as adept at first base as Joe Mauer, making all the scoops and showing more pop at the plate. Many fans (I was one of those) thought that the front office should encourage Mauer to sign an extension for 2019, but Cron appears to be performing just as well.
 
Second base pickup Jonathan Schoop gives the middle infield youth and arm strength that Brian Dozier did not have. Here is his throw from shallow left in Houston April 22 to nab Josh Reddick at the plate:
 
https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1120513457491795975
 
And, “super utility” player Marwin Gonzalez, despite his slow start at the plate, is making the plays in the field, while filling in at third base, at first base, and in left. His sliding catch in the first inning against the Astros on April 29 saved perhaps two runs, in a game the Twins won with only a single run, 1-0.
 
All of this, while free agent designated hitter Nelson Cruz is hitting even better than advertised.
 
The additions to the pitching staff for 2019 did not seem impactful; however, Ryne Harper and Blake Parker have been assets in the bullpen, and Martin Perez has now strung together four good starts. It’s a group of pitchers who are far outperforming last season’s acquisitions Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, and Lance Lynn. After 30 games in 2018, the Twins had already suffered five walk-off losses. Here in 2019, none as of yet.
 
While it’s yet to be seen whether the pitchers will continue to protect leads, the new additions to the every day lineup are providing enough offense and defense to keep the team in the win column more often than not.
 
As Jonah Keri, writing for The Athletic, summarized it: The combination of up-and-comers in their 20s, big-hitting veteran imports and managerial guidance [from Rocco Baldelli] has borne fruit. A lot can be said of Baldelli as well, the new Twins manager and perhaps biggest offseason acquisition of all. But that's another article for another day.
 
Prior to the 2018 season, the front office might have thought they were acquiring the final complementary parts to a team that won 85 games the previous season. It did not work out that way. The acquisitions for the 2019 season, however, are working out incredibly well so far.
 
And I haven’t even mentioned Willians Astudillo yet.

It’s April 16, 2018. The Twins own a 7-4 record. The front office has added free agents at several key positions to complement an 85-win team from the previous year that earned its first post-season berth in seven years.
 
It's April 16, and despite a string of postponements due to an early spring snowstorm, the team is playing well, and flying to Puerto Rico for an unusual two-game series against their division rivals.
 


Minnesota Twins and Puerto Rico, April 2018 (copyright Brace Hemmelgarn, for Twins/MLB) 
After dropping the first game of the series, native Puerto Rican Jose Berrios pitches 7 shutout innings in the second game, and the Twins win in the 16th inning on a Ryan LaMarre base hit. LaMarre was a minor league signing prior to the season who won a spot on the team with a good spring.
 
With the win, the Twins reclaim first place with an 8-5 record and prepare to fly to Tampa to play a series against the Rays.
 
Then it fell apart.
 
In the first game of that series, free agent relief pitcher Zach Duke failed to touch first base on a toss from Joe Mauer that would have ended the 10th inning; instead, the winning run scored all the way from second base. The Twins lost to Blake Snell in the second game of the series, and in the final game, free agent addition Addison Reed surrendered a 9th inning, walk-off home run to Carlos Gomez.
 
Then the Twins flew to New York for a four game series in Yankee Stadium.
 
After losing the first three games in their typically inept Yankee Stadium way, the Twins had a chance to salvage the series finale. Starter Kyle Gibson held the Yankees to just one hit over 6 shutout innings, and the Twins entered the bottom of the 9th with a 3-1 lead. The first Yankees batter reached when first baseman Logan Morrison, yet another offseason free agent addition, failed to scoop a not-too-difficult short hop throw from Miguel Sano. That baserunner gave the Yankees life. Two batters later, free agent closer Fernando Rodney surrendered another game winning, walk-off home run, a three-run shot by Gary Sanchez.
 
The Twins flew home from New York on a seven game losing streak. They tacked on another dismal loss to the Reds, extending their losing streak to eight. Their record sank to 8-13 and they would not climb back to .500 for the rest of the 2018 season.
 
The free agent acquisitions prior to 2018 were meant to complement the young corps of players that had been developed internally in the organization, but instead, the free agents seemed to torpedo the season.
 
This season, so far, is different. Much different. Those players from 2018 are elsewhere, and the players brought in by the front office for 2019 are making the plays.
 
First baseman C. J. Cron, coming from Tampa Bay, has proven just as adept at first base as Joe Mauer, making all the scoops and showing more pop at the plate. Many fans (I was one of those) thought that the front office should encourage Mauer to sign an extension for 2019, but Cron appears to be performing just as well.
 
Second base pickup Jonathan Schoop gives the middle infield youth and arm strength that Brian Dozier did not have. Here is his throw from shallow left in Houston April 22 to nab Josh Reddick at the plate:
 
https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1120513457491795975
 
And, “super utility” player Marwin Gonzalez, despite his slow start at the plate, is making the plays in the field, while filling in at third base, at first base, and in left. His sliding catch in the first inning against the Astros on April 29 saved perhaps two runs, in a game the Twins won with only a single run, 1-0.
 
All of this, while free agent designated hitter Nelson Cruz is hitting even better than advertised.
 
The additions to the pitching staff for 2019 did not seem impactful; however, Ryne Harper and Blake Parker have been assets in the bullpen, and Martin Perez has now strung together four good starts. It’s a group of pitchers who are far outperforming last season’s acquisitions Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, and Lance Lynn. After 30 games in 2018, the Twins had already suffered five walk-off losses. Here in 2019, none as of yet.
 
While it’s yet to be seen whether the pitchers will continue to protect leads, the new additions to the every day lineup are providing enough offense and defense to keep the team in the win column more often than not.
 
As Jonah Keri, writing for The Athletic, summarized it: The combination of up-and-comers in their 20s, big-hitting veteran imports and managerial guidance [from Rocco Baldelli] has borne fruit. A lot can be said of Baldelli as well, the new Twins manager and perhaps biggest offseason acquisition of all. But that's another article for another day.
 
Prior to the 2018 season, the front office might have thought they were acquiring the final complementary parts to a team that won 85 games the previous season. It did not work out that way. The acquisitions for the 2019 season, however, are working out incredibly well so far.
 
And I haven’t even mentioned Willians Astudillo yet.

It’s April 16, 2018. The Twins own a 7-4 record. The front office has added free agents at several key positions to complement an 85-win team from the previous year that earned its first post-season berth in seven years.
 
It's April 16, and despite a string of postponements due to an early spring snowstorm, the team is playing well, and flying to Puerto Rico for an unusual two-game series against their division rivals.
 


Minnesota Twins and Puerto Rico, April 2018 (copyright Brace Hemmelgarn, for Twins/MLB) 
After dropping the first game of the series, native Puerto Rican Jose Berrios pitches 7 shutout innings in the second game, and the Twins win in the 16th inning on a Ryan LaMarre base hit. LaMarre was a minor league signing prior to the season who won a spot on the team with a good spring.
 
With the win, the Twins reclaim first place with an 8-5 record and prepare to fly to Tampa to play a series against the Rays.
 
Then it fell apart.
 
In the first game of that series, free agent relief pitcher Zach Duke failed to touch first base on a toss from Joe Mauer that would have ended the 10th inning; instead, the winning run scored all the way from second base. The Twins lost to Blake Snell in the second game of the series, and in the final game, free agent addition Addison Reed surrendered a 9th inning, walk-off home run to Carlos Gomez.
 
Then the Twins flew to New York for a four game series in Yankee Stadium.
 
After losing the first three games in their typically inept Yankee Stadium way, the Twins had a chance to salvage the series finale. Starter Kyle Gibson held the Yankees to just one hit over 6 shutout innings, and the Twins entered the bottom of the 9th with a 3-1 lead. The first Yankees batter reached when first baseman Logan Morrison, yet another offseason free agent addition, failed to scoop a not-too-difficult short hop throw from Miguel Sano. That baserunner gave the Yankees life. Two batters later, free agent closer Fernando Rodney surrendered another game winning, walk-off home run, a three-run shot by Gary Sanchez.
 
The Twins flew home from New York on a seven game losing streak. They tacked on another dismal loss to the Reds, extending their losing streak to eight. Their record sank to 8-13 and they would not climb back to .500 for the rest of the 2018 season.
 
The free agent acquisitions prior to 2018 were meant to complement the young corps of players that had been developed internally in the organization, but instead, the free agents seemed to torpedo the season.
 
This season, so far, is different. Much different. Those players from 2018 are elsewhere, and the players brought in by the front office for 2019 are making the plays.
 
First baseman C. J. Cron, coming from Tampa Bay, has proven just as adept at first base as Joe Mauer, making all the scoops and showing more pop at the plate. Many fans (I was one of those) thought that the front office should encourage Mauer to sign an extension for 2019, but Cron appears to be performing just as well.
 
Second base pickup Jonathan Schoop gives the middle infield youth and arm strength that Brian Dozier did not have. Here is his throw from shallow left in Houston April 22 to nab Josh Reddick at the plate:
 
https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1120513457491795975
 
And, “super utility” player Marwin Gonzalez, despite his slow start at the plate, is making the plays in the field, while filling in at third base, at first base, and in left. His sliding catch in the first inning against the Astros on April 29 saved perhaps two runs, in a game the Twins won with only a single run, 1-0.
 
All of this, while free agent designated hitter Nelson Cruz is hitting even better than advertised.
 
The additions to the pitching staff for 2019 did not seem impactful; however, Ryne Harper and Blake Parker have been assets in the bullpen, and Martin Perez has now strung together four good starts. It’s a group of pitchers who are far outperforming last season’s acquisitions Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, and Lance Lynn. After 30 games in 2018, the Twins had already suffered five walk-off losses. Here in 2019, none as of yet.
 
While it’s yet to be seen whether the pitchers will continue to protect leads, the new additions to the every day lineup are providing enough offense and defense to keep the team in the win column more often than not.
 
As Jonah Keri, writing for The Athletic, summarized it: The combination of up-and-comers in their 20s, big-hitting veteran imports and managerial guidance [from Rocco Baldelli] has borne fruit. A lot can be said of Baldelli as well, the new Twins manager and perhaps biggest offseason acquisition of all. But that's another article for another day.
 
Prior to the 2018 season, the front office might have thought they were acquiring the final complementary parts to a team that won 85 games the previous season. It did not work out that way. The acquisitions for the 2019 season, however, are working out incredibly well so far.
 
And I haven’t even mentioned Willians Astudillo yet.

Everyday Eddie Guardado has spent a lot of days in the Twins bullpen. Twelve of Guardado's 17 major-league seasons were spent playing for the Twins, and he added an extra four years as their bullpen coach under Paul Molitor's regime until he was let go this past fall.
 
At some point during his first 11 season with the Twins, he picked up the nickname "Everyday Eddie". A quick search shows that the oldest online reference to "Everyday Eddie" is from a March 2001 Peter Gammons article in which he says, mockingly:
 
At the time, the Twins were coming off of four straight 90-loss seasons, so it's hard to fault Gammons for thinking an above-.500 season was laughable. The Twins finished 85-77 that year, proving Gammons wrong, however—despite a very good year from Guardado—the Twins bullpen finished the year with the 5th-worst bullpen ERA.
 
We know that at some point before 2001, "Everday Eddie" took hold as a nickname, and now, nearly a decade removed from his final major-league pitch, we can look back and decide: was that really a fitting nickname?
 
Obviously Guardado didn't literally pitch everyday, it was hyperbole, but the nickname implies a couple of things: 1) he pitched in a lot of games, to the point where it might seem like he has pitched in every game, and 2) he pitched on zero days rest regularly, giving the impression that he was available everyday.
 
But were either of those things true?
 
Let's start with games played. In 1996, Guardado's first full season as a reliever, he appeared in 83 games which was tied for the league-lead with Tigers' reliever and international man of mystery Mike Myers. From 1996 through 2000 (remember, this nickname was established sometime before March of 2001), Guardado appeared in a total of 364 games, the 4th most among pitchers in that span behind Robb Nen, Buddy Groom, and Mike "Voice of Shrek" Myers.
 
That's a lot of appearances. Not the most, but a lot. Considering he played for the same team during during that span, unlike the players ahead of him, and that his "Everyday Eddie" is alliterative, it's reasonable that he'd get this nickname by playing in a bunch of games. And keep in mind, the Twins were abysmal during this stretch, so the fans were likely desperate to latch on to anything.
 
Now let's look at the second possibility: did Everyday Eddie pitch a lot with zero days rest?
 
A quick play index shows that in all of baseball history, Guardado had the 11th most games played on zero days rest among all pitchers. He sits behind three Hall of Famers (Mariano Rivera, Lee Smith, and Trevor Hoffman), some memorable good relievers with long careers (Jesse Orosco, Jose Mesa, and Francisco Rodriguez), and of course Mike "He Keeps Showing Up Like That Killer in the Halloween Movies" Myers.
 
Both are true: Guardado pitched in a lot of games and frequently pitch on zero days rest—he truly earned his "Everyday" nickname (and of course the alliteration really helps). However, I think that it is only fair that he henceforth shall share the nickname with Mike Myers. "Everyday Mike" may not have the same ring to it as "Everyday Eddie", but if anyone complains, they can just zip it.

-- From "Ted Williams' Year in Minnesota" by Bill Nowlin https://sabr.org/research/ted-williams-year-minneapolis
 
The Halsey Hall Chapter of SABR is a group of baseball fans and researchers that are interested in all aspects of baseball, from analytics to uniforms. We meet as a group twice a year at our Chapter meetings to listen to the latest in historical baseball research and presentations from former Twins, talk about baseball, and eat pizza/donuts. We also have a number of other events throughout the year to sate the appetite of the most diehard of baseball fans.
 
Our next Chapter Meeting is Saturday, May 18th, 2019 at the Faith Mennonite Church, 2720 E. 22nd Street in south Minneapolis. Registration for the meeting is at 8:30 AM with research presentations beginning at 9:00 AM. A business meeting will be held during lunch with a featured guest to follow. The cost for the meeting and lunch is $10. The meeting only is $5.
 
Research Committee
 
The Halsey Hall Research Committee is currently working on "The Spread of Baseball in Minnesota" project as well as an On-line Baseball Research Tools Panel Presentations scheduled for the University of Minnesota in February.
 
The Research Committee will meet Monday, January 14 at 7:00 PM in Room I at the Brookdale Library, 6125 Shingle Creek Parkway, Brooklyn Center 55430.
 
Other Upcoming Events
 
Pre-Festivus Hot Stove Grumpy’s Gathering of Baseball Enthusiasts
 
Join your fellow fans to talk baseball at Grumpy’s Bar and Grill, 2200 4th Street Northeast, Minneapolis 55418, on Friday, December 21. Gathering begins at 5 PM
 
Fred Souba Hot Stove Saturday Morning
 
The next Fred Souba Hot Stove Saturday Morning, an informal breakfast gathering for the purpose of talking baseball, will be at 9:00 AM on Saturday, January 5 at Bunny’s Northeast, 34 13th Avenue NE, Minneapolis 55413, 612-545-5659 (in what was the keg warehouse of the Grain Belt Brewery).
 
Chapter Outing to Play Ball! Exhibit in Shakopee
 
Jim Cox is organizing an outing to the Play Ball! Sports in Scott County exhibit at the Scott County Historical Society, 235 Fuller Street South, Shakopee 55379 on Saturday, January 12. Jim attended the opening of the exhibit on September 27 and invites others to join him on a return visit. Admission is $4. Those interested in lunch may meet at 11 AM at Wampach’s Restaurant, 126 Fuller Street. The congregation will then go two blocks south to the museum at noon.
 
Twinsfest
 
The Halsey Hall Chapter will again have a table at Twinsfest at Target Field from Friday, January 25 to Sunday, January 27. If you are interested in volunteering for a shift at the table, contact Doug Skipper, 612-876-1408.
 
Caribbean Series Viewing Party
 
A Caribbean Series viewing party will be Sunday, February 3 at 2:00 PM at Adelita’s Mexican Restaurant, 2405 Central Avenue NE, Minneapolis 55418.
 
Book Club
The Halsey Hall Chapter Book Club will meet Saturday, February 9 at 9:30 AM at the usual spot, Barnes & Noble in Har Mar Mall in Roseville. The book selection is Powerball: Anatomy of a Modern Game by Rob Neyer.
 
More Information
 
For more information about SABR and the Halsey Hall Chapter:
 
http://www.sabr.org
http://www.halseyhall.org
 
Hans Van Slooten is the Membership Chair of the Halsey Hall Chapter of SABR. He currently works in the Baseball Operations department of the Minnesota Twins. He is also the former Manager of Baseball Operations at Sports Reference.

A team barely alive
 
Some are saying the Twins should abandon the effort to seriously compete in 2019 and aim to reload for 2020 and 2021, when prospects like Alex Kiriloff and Royce Lewis will be ready to contribute. That's a mistake to me--with a payroll commitment of only about $60 Million, they almost can't afford not to spend some serious cash. I'll lay out what we can learn from 2018 and what the Twins can do not only to compete but to put themselves in position to win the American League Central in 2019, ending this post with my offseason blueprint. First, let's look at the year now past--not quite a debacle, but quite disappointing:
2016 2017 2018 changeActual Wins 59 85 78 -7
They fell off by seven games, which isn't much considering a 26-game improvement came about the year before. Still, everyone was hoping for better. Their Pythagorean wins (the number of wins expected given their runs scored and allowed) were at 79, so there's not much bad luck involved in that number.
 
Where did the Twins' actual decline come from? Let's compare this year's decline to last year's improvement:
2016 2017 2018 changeLuck -7 +2 +1 -1Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 15.2 -13.5Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 12.3 +5.3
So here's the bright side: Twins pitching in two years went from the worst around to now above average. This is an incredible achievement by Falvey and Levine, the coaches, and the players. The Twins have released pitching coach Garvin Alston after one year to enable new manager Rocco Baldelli to hire the person he wants, but judging from the results, one would have to give a hearty thanks to Alston for moving the needle significantly in the right direction for whatever degree of influence he had. Their challenge now is to keep up this level of quality and boost it on the margins.
 
To say that hitting was a disappointment is an understatement. While the lineup didn't totally fall apart, they certainly fell two big steps backwards. Getting just a little better from here isn't going to cut it in the minds of Twins fans or for the front office. More importantly, knowing the specific players who should take the blame leaves me both concerned and hopeful--quite literally, the Twins supposed five best hitters (Sano, Buxton, Morrison, Mauer, and Dozier) all dramatically underperformed. In no universe did fans, writers, pundits, projection systems, Paul Molitor, Thad Lavine, or Derek Falvey think there was any reasonable chance that the five of them would combine to post a cumulative WAR under 1. When you would have been just as well simply benching your five best hitters for all 162 games, there's literally no possible way to overcome that. And yet, the Twins still ended three wins under .500 for the year, a mark far more respectable than what could have happened.
 
So the bad news is that Twins's best players now all have big question marks surrounding them. The good news though: 2018 was certainly a black swan event, the likes of which the Twins offense has never seen nor imagined. No one could have predicted it, and the probability of it happening again is exceedingly small. These players are all better than this, and we should expect this year to be expunged from their memories after they achieve more success going forward.
 
I'll break down the hitters by WAR (technically fWAR, or FanGraph's WAR), focusing on the players that mattered most. I'll list last year's players who have been replaced for comparison's sake, as well.
WAR 2017 2018 change15 Hitters 24.9 14.6 -10.5LF Rosario 1.7 3.4 +1.7RF Kepler 2.4 2.6 +0.23B Escobar 1.3 2.4 +1.1SS Polanco 2.1 1.3 -0.82B Dozier 4.4 1.0 -3.41B Mauer 3.4 1.0 -2.4CF Buxton 5.1 -0.4 -5.5C Castro 2.5 -0.2 -2.7DH Vargas=>Morrison 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 3B Sano 2.5 0.0 -2.54O Granite=>Cave 0.3 1.3 +1.0BC Gimenez=>Garver 0.7 1.3 +0.55O Grossman 0.8 0.7 -0.1MI Adrianza 0.9 0.5 -0.4MI Santana=>Forsythe 0.1 0.4 -0.3
Moves that worked
 
Sticking with Rosario in 2017: Rosario had a successful year in 2017, but many were worried that it was more of a fluke--that Rosario would return to a below-league-average hitter, as he was in 2015-2016. Instead, Rosario kept hitting at a high level and simultaneously improved his baserunning and fielding into also above-average territory. If he can maintain these tools, expect an all-star team appearance for Rosario, perhaps even in 2019. Under team control through 2021, the case can also be made that Rosario's trade value will never be higher--what kind of pitching riches could the Twins acquire if they offer Rosario and move Jake Cave into left? Still, the most likely scenario is that the Twins keep playing Rosario every night for a few years, and perhaps they should keep offering him long-term contract extensions till he signs one.
 
Trading Luis Gil for Jake Cave: The Yankees were never going to play Cave in the outfield, so trading him for a low-level hard-throwing prospect was perhaps a good move for them, but it was a great move for the Twins, as Cave contributed more to the team winning than Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Joe Mauer combined in 2018. It seems that Cave can legitimately hit and field, and so the Twins plan on keeping him around. He is perfect as the fourth outfielder for years to come. Before the trade, Zach Granite was struggling and Ryan LaMarre jumped over him to begin the year in the big leagues, but Cave's success led the Twins to trade away LaMarre without fear.
 
Relying on Mitch Garver more than Bobby Wilson or Chris Gimenez: Last year, the Twins were reluctant to trust Garver behind the plate, trying him out as a pinch hitter, DH, and outfielder. That's a problem, because Garver isn't a good enough hitter to be highly valuable at any of those positions--but at catcher, he's a great hitter. This year, Garver caught in over 650 innings, and while his catching metrics are overall slight negative, his strong hitting makes up for it. Good-hitting catchers are hard to find, and the Twins should live with little shortcomings in Garver if he can be a above-average hitter--that is, above-average for a hitter, way above average for a catcher.
 
Moves that bombed
Playing through lower-body pain: How many times do the Twins have to get bitten by this to change their emphasis? Logan Morrison (hip), Brian Dozier (knee), Miguel Sano (leg, hamstring) and of course Byron Buxton (toe) all tried to play either through an injury or come back too soon from recovery. The evidence is abundant that hitting suffers immensely when any part of the legs can't be trusted. Playing hurt often means playing to hurt your team, and it should no longer be tolerated, let alone encouraged.
 
Managing Byron Buxton's injuries and swing: Buxton is too good for this to be the result. By the butterfly effect, migraine headaches led to a broken toe, the already-mentioned foolish attempt to return too early, and lots of confusion over his swing mechanics. The new trainers, new manager, and yet-to-be-named new hitting coach will have Buxton's success as perhaps their top individual priority.
 
Failing to trade Dozier before the beginning of the year: The rumor was that, for Dozier to escape to the the Dodgers before the season, the Twins were demanding Jose De Leon and Cody Bellinger in return. The Dodgers, even without the benefit of hindsight, were never going to do that trade. The Twins should have accepted DeLeon and another lesser player as the best deal they could have gotten. It looks especially bad now, as the Twins' "best hitter" was not at all their best hitter anymore--Dozier inexplicably (was it a lingering knee injury?) went from being 25% above average to 10% below average in one year. Needless to say, Dozier was hoping for a hundred-million-dollar or more contract in his first free-agent try, but might now have to settle for a one-year deal and try again next year.
 
On to the starting pitchers:
2017 2018 change6 Starters 7.2 9.7 +2.5Berrios 1.7 3.3 +1.6Gibson 0.2 2.8 +2.6Colon=>Odorizzi 0.1 2.6 +2.5Mejia=>Lynn 0.8 0.8 0.0Santiago=>Romero -0.2 0.7 +0.9Santana 4.6 -0.5 -5.1
Moves that worked
 
Sticking with Berrios and Gibson: It took Berrios a few additional years after his debut to find his footing, but the patience with him is paying off. When you have a pitching prospect like Berrios, it may take some years of struggle before becoming a reliable contributor--Berrios was such all year, without giving the coaches reason to worry or doubt. La Maquina is under team control through 2022, so the Twins will pencil him in as often as possible for the next four years.
 
Gibson's struggle was ongoing for years, but this was the year he put all that behind him and had confidence on the mound for the entire year. I was among those who were ready for the Twins to cut ties with him two years ago, but he has proved me wrong by being the rare pitcher whose age-30 season is better than any year prior. We shouldn't expect Gibson to exceed his 2018 success, but he has certainly earned a rotation spot next year.
 
Trading for Jake Odorizzi: The Twins spent the offseason trying to get Chris Archer. When they couldn't meet the Rays' asking price, they went down a notch and acquired Odorizzi from them in exchange for Jermaine Palacios, who went on to have a poor season in A and AA and seems a long way from ever contributing in the majors. Odorizzi wasn't the near-ace the Twins were hoping for, but at a notch below, he was a much better contributor than Bartolo Colon last year. The Twins should not hesitate to make such a routine move to plug a hole again, as adding two or three wins in exchange for a marginal prospect is a bargain no matter which way you look at it. By the way, Archer struggled on the year and was traded mid-season for a lesser return to the Pirates, so perhaps it all worked out well for the Twins.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Signing Lance Lynn and thus blocking Adalberto Mejia:
I hesitate to call this a big mistake--Lance Lynn's contract was limited and the Twins recognized early enough that he wasn't the pitcher they thought they were getting, skipping occasional starts and pulling him early. Still, the Twins would have been better off trusting Meijia, Romero, or Gonsalves to take Lynn's 20 starts. The results would likely have been no worse, and furthermore perhaps one of those three would be a clear asset for the major league team in 2018. Instead, the Twins and Twins fans alike still are unsure of these three not-so-young-anymore pitchers and their role going forward. We can't second-guess the Lynn signing too much, as it was cheap and easy, and this was likely just a down year for Lynn, who should be effective for the Yankees or some other team for years to come.
 
And the bullpen:
2017 2018 change11 Relievers 2.4 2.4 0.0Rogers 0.4 1.9 +0.8Pressly -0.2 0.8 +1.0 Gee=>Duke 0.6 0.8 +0.2Kintzler=>Rodney 1.1 0.5 -0.6Breslow=>Moya -0.1 0.1 +0.2Hildenberger 0.8 0.0 -0.8Belisle 0.0 -0.2 -0.2Duffey -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 Boshers=>Reed -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 Tonkin=>Magill -0.2 -0.3 -0.1Busenitz 0.1 -0.8 -0.9
Moves that worked
 
Making Taylor Rogers more than a LOOGY: Being left-handed is certainly a blessing for most pitchers, but sometimes they get trapped into a specialty role. Instead, Molitor used Rogers often against lefties and righties alike, and he shined in the process, boasting more than a strikeout per inning and nearly five for every walk, and giving up the bare minimum of home runs you could ever expect. I doubt Rogers will ever be this good again, but you can hope he'll come close. He's definitely the kind of pitcher the Twins are happy to have for at least four more years in his prime.
 
Signing Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney: Duke didn't make himself into a top-notch reliever, but his 52 innings pitched were solidly above-average for a team that struggled to find strength in their bullpen. Rodney contributed just as well, too. Again, signing players like these (and then trading them away if the season becomes lost) should be routine moves that happen every year alongside any bigger moves. These players are often available each year, and the Twins' scouts will prove themselves if this kind of signing usually works out as it did with Duke and Rodney.
 
Building up Pressly and trading him for value: Ryan Pressly got some press after the Twins traded him for Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino, saying that the Astros recognized that he needed to change his mix of pitches simply to throw his superior breaking ball more often. It should not be overlooked that the Twins helped Pressly develop very well, and any tweaks the Astros have done are because they stand on the proverbial shoulders of giants.
 
Not signing a top-quality reliever: The Twins could have convinced themselves that Wade Davis or Greg Holland were worth big contracts. If they had done so, we'd probably now be lamenting how much we are on the hook. This isn't to say that the Twins shouldn't sign a more expensive reliever now, but only that in 2018 the options were poor and they were wise to avoid making a high-risk, low-reward mistake.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Leaning on Trevor Hildenberger: One of the biggest disappointments of the year was the failure of Hildenberger to step up as the Twins' next elite reliever. Did Molitor call on him too often--having him pitch in nearly half of the Twins' games? Did he wear down early and never recover? Was he thrust into a high-leverage role too soon in his career? Or is he just an average pitcher, and the Twins should not have given so much credence to his late 2017 performance? Hildenberger might be an area of focus for the new pitching staff. They have a lot of plates to spin in order to improve this bullpen, and Hildenberger might be the biggest and wobbliest.
 
Bringing back Belisle: This one's a puzzler to me: Matt Belisle was not a good pitcher in 2017 and got worse in 2018; why did the Twins sign him mid-season? The only thing I can think of is that the Twins wanted his leadership and cameraderie in the bullpen--to have him more as a player-coach and a mop-up pitcher rather than a true bullpen building block. Still, they must have realized that in August, as the end of July featured two bad Belisle outings that led to one-run losses. Maybe his playing days aren't done, but I surely hope they are done in Minnesota, although I'm open to the idea of hiring him as a minor-league pitching coach.
 
Duffing around the course: Tyler Duffey is just hanging around, not bad enough to be cut but not good enough to help the team win. I suppose he's better than relievers behind him on the depth chart, but I'm hoping the Twins bullpen improves to the point where it will be more obvious that the Twins can move on from Duffey.
 
Mind your own Busenitz: Alan Busenitz has been disappointing to be sure, and part of the problem was in keeping him away from the majors for two months, but he failed to make the most of his 23 appearances in the majors, showing that perhaps he did deserve to be in AAA after all. He'll be in the doghouse again to start 2019, and I have no problem making him earn his way back to the majors again as he's done three times already.
 
Subtraction by Addison: Reed was thought to be one of the top relievers on the free-agent market, and the Twins were able to snag him for only a two-year deal. He turned in very inconsistent performances in the second half, but I don't think this is too big a disappointment, and I'm glad he'll be in Minneapolis next year to bounce back and earn his next big contract.
 
We have the capability...
 
Well, the label "big spenders" is something of an exaggeration, but the Twins have the opportunity to spend more than ever before in longer-term contracts and set themselves up for success in 2019 and in their future. The Twins major-league payroll sits at around $60 million, leaving them $60-80 million to add for 2019 alone to reach even league average, and there's nothing stopping them from spending even more. The same wide-open salary continues in the future. It will be up to Falvey and Levine to spend it wisely, but they can't revert to Terry Ryan-style frugality.
 
Rocco Baldelli will lead that team
 
Their first task is to build out Rocco Baldelli's coaching staff. He should choose a pitching coach that he can trust, but also someone who can usher Twins pitchers into modernity. It seems currently that pitching strategy is changing faster than ever before, and the new pitching coach will need to manage openers, starters, quick hooks, and firemen--and nuture pitchers to throw more breaking balls, keep their velocities up as they age, avoid tipping pitches, prevent injuries, and manage fatigue better than any Twins pitching coach in years past. I have no idea who Baldelli, Falvey, and Levine should choose, but the choice is perhaps more important than ever before.
 
Better than they were before
 
The Twins' hitters have a few holes, and the opportunities for improvement are more obvious than last year. Here's how they should approach this team renovation.
 
Trust the supposed three best hitters: It would be far too hasty and foolish to give up on Sano or Buxton. Eddie Rosario has surpassed them and inspires more confidence for sure, but Sano and Buxton's trade value will never be lower than right now. Don't forget that they are 25 and 24 years old, 3-4 years before their statistically-likely prime. They still have growing and developing to do, and they were too good in the minors and in long stretches in the majors before for 2018's performances to be representative. Grant them a fresh start in the new year and I'm betting that Twins fans will be rewarded.
 
Trust Sano at third base: Good fielding has returned as a emphasis for the Twins, with Kepler, Buxton, and now Rosario helping out in the field, but to those names you can lighly pencil in Miguel Sano, who is just fine at third base, and far more valuable there than at DH. The Twins should keep Sano at third till it is utterly obvious that he shouldn't be playing there, and we seem to be a long way from that. Presuming that the Twins infield will be shifting much more than in 2018, the coaches will have to work out how best to play him--he can't be roaming in short right field like we saw Travis Shaw or Justin Turner do in the playoffs--but there is flexibility here and the coaches can make it work.
 
Sign a good-hitting second baseman: No, don't re-sign Logan Forsythe. The Twins need a very good hitter at second base more than they need a good-fielding shortstop. I'm not sure that Manny Machado is even a good fit nor nearly worth the money. I'd go with Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera as free agent signings, but also look for someone arguably better on the trade market, like a one year rental of Scooter Gennett. The Twins have several in-house options for 2020 and beyond, so a one- or two-year commitment here makes a lot of sense.
 
Trade for a real slugging first baseman: There are a few disappointing options at first base on the free agent market, but there's a obvious name that might be gettable in a trade: One year of Paul Goldschmidt. I'd beware a bidding war, but trades for no-doubt mashers are not often regretted. If that doesn't work, a trade for Justin Smoak or Carlos Santana could be arranged, but the Twins should also look at taking on longer contracts if a good deal can be had for Wil Myers or Brandon Belt. But plan A should be Goldschmidt.
 
Sign a designated hitter: Picking up Logan Morrison didn't work out, but it was the right idea. Matt Adams or Lucas Duda could be a relatively inexpensive boost to a lineup that has been missing a go-to DH for years, though I still expect that Willians Astudillo and Tyler Austin will get starts at DH as well as corner infield positions throughout the year.
 
Plan on using Jake Cave often to keep Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario fresh. If any starting outfielder gets a nagging injury, put him on the disabled list without hesitation and keep him there till all are confident he is recovered.
 
Say goodbye to the hall-of-famer, has-beens, and almost-weres: Joe Mauer seems all but retired, and the Twins shouldn't entice him back unless it is for a true bargain on a one-year deal. Grossman, Gimenez, and Belisle should also retire and the Twins shouldn't feel forced to bring them back. Sadly, Danny Duffey doesn't seem to have a way back. I have no problem keeping him in Rochester in case he truly earns it back, but I wouldn't plan on it happening.
 
Better, stronger, faster
 
Improvements to the pitching staff need to emphasize faster fastballs, sharper curve balls, and above all, clear-cut quality. Lance Lynn or others like him should not be an option for this team unless they come even cheaper than last year. Also, the bullpen can't continue to limp along--the Twins are way behind in getting an advantage out of their relievers and it is time to end that.
 
Sign an almost-ace: I can't quite use the term "ace", as a pitcher in the top echelon is nearly impossible to get, but the the Twins need a clear-cut top-notch pitcher, and there's several to choose from. My pick is Nathan Eovaldi. With a 100 mph fastball and a tendency to avoid walks, he will give Twins fans both excitement and winning immediately. Trevor Cahill is another good option, or Patrick Corbin if you want to aim a little higher
 
Stick with what works: Trevor May might become great, we know Rogers and Moya are capable, and I mentioned staying faithful to Addison Reed. This gives the Twins four pitchers they can rely on--maybe not to be the top of the bullpen, but to at least stick around for the year.
 
Bring in expensive talent: I figure the Twins need two new top relievers in 2019, as well as one depth acquisition. Trading for any of these may be an option, but I think the bullpen is the best area to spend the deep pockets the Twins have starting this year. I'd target Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera, and pick up a lefty like Jerry Blevins for good measure.
 
Manage the rest carefully: Hildenberger, Magill, and Busenitz haven't inspired confidence yet, so keeping them in Rochester till needed isn't a bad idea. Make sure they are trusted as true contributors in the majors before trusting them with a roster spot. Of course, we all hope that Hildenberger is very close to earning that trust, but there was much to cause doubt in him in 2018.
 
So here's my 2018 season-long roster, comprised of the 30 most important players, along with somewhat optimistic hoped-for WAR numbers for each. These numbers add up to a bit over 100 wins for the 2019 Twins. Most of these players will not hit these "hope" numbers, but some will, and others will come close, and a few will exceed them enough to make the Twins a contender in 2019. Join me in my optimism; a AL Central title and thus a World Series is within reach.
WAR 2017 2018 2019 hope CF Buxton 5.1 -0.4 5.01B Goldschmidt 5.2 5.1 4.53B Sano 2.5 0.0 3.7 LF Rosario 1.7 3.4 3.5 2B Lowrie 3.6 4.9 3.1RF Kepler 2.4 2.6 2.6SS Polanco 2.1 1.3 2.0C Castro 2.5 -0.2 1.5DH Adams 1.2 0.8 1.2 4O Cave 0.3 1.3 1.5CI Astudillo 0.7 1.4BC Garver 0.7 1.3 1.3MI Adrianza 0.9 0.5 1.0CI Austin 0.1 0.4 0.7SP Berrios 1.7 3.3 3.5SP Eovaldi 2.2 3.0 SP Gibson 0.2 2.8 2.6SP Odorizzi 0.1 2.6 2.1SP Pineda 1.1 1.7SP Romero 0.7 0.5RP Rogers 0.4 1.9 1.5RP Familia 0.3 1.8 1.0RP May 0.5 0.8RP Herrera 0.1 0.4 0.5RP Hildenberger 0.8 0.0 0.5RP Reed 0.9 -0.2 0.5RP Moya -0.1 0.1 0.3RP Busenitz 0.1 -0.8 0.3RP Magill -0.3 0.2 TEAM WAR 36.8 28.8 52.0Wins 85 78 100

Recently, the team behind MLB's Statcast came up with another visual and defensive metric for our perusal. It's still astonishing to me that the Baseball Savant platform is a free database to the average fan. That's the reality we live in however, and they've now introduced a Directional Outs Above Average leaderboard. In 2018 Byron Buxton obviously isn't on it. Looking back at least year though, the numbers are extraordinary.
 
MLB.com's David Adler broke down some of his findings using the new tool today on Twitter. Notably, the White Sox Adam Engel has been the most valuable outfielder in baseball this year when it comes to tracking down balls behind him. Quantifying anything above +5 as elite, Engel has tracked down baseballs behind him and to his glove side as good as anyone in baseball this season.
 

 
That's all fine and well, but the high water mark this year is +5. The Twins centerfielder won the Platinum Glove last season, and watching him play, it was easy to see why. Among players with at least 25 opportunities, Byron Buxton's 29 outs above average was eight clear of his closest competition (Ender Inciate 21). Generating those outs though, Buxton's play behind him is what sets him apart.
 

 
Working in centerfield, Buxton generated elite totals (+10 and +7) on balls to the left and right field gaps. With 81 home games a year played at Target Field, getting to baseballs towards the high wall in right center or the bullpen fence in left center, saved his pitcher's ERA significantly. With 20 OAA behind him, only the White Sox Engel came close (owning an 18 OAA mark on balls behind him).
 
During 2018, the Twins have gotten just 28 games from Buxton at the big league level. Due to injuries, rehab, and now service time issues, he simply hasn't been on the field for a team that took a significant step backwards. Max Kepler has been one of the most consistently available outfielders for Minnesota in his place, and his nine OAA total is quite the dropoff.
 
As you may expect, this reality has caused quite the problem for the Twins defensively. In 2017 Minnesota outfielders combined for a 24 DRS total, which was good enough for 4th in all of baseball. Fast forward to today and Minnesota owns just a 2 DRS total this season, ranking 17th in the big leagues. There's no doubt it has also contributed to the Twins sliding from 19th to 23rd year-over-year in terms of pitching ERA.
 
There really isn't anything groundbreaking about the concept that Byron Buxton is an immense talent on defense. That premise alone is why the Twins rushed him back from his initial injury this season, and why they were willing to sacrifice both his health and offensive game for the betterment of their team as a whole. That said, it's plenty refreshing to see new metrics reflect just how exceptional Minnesota's center fielder appears through the eye test.
 
Getting a healthy Buxton back next season should do wonders for Minnesota, and he should continue to be a best friend for Twins pitchers.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

A lot of us were shocked by the Buxton treatment this year, from playing him with an injury to denying him his September call up. We were almost equally shocked to see Sano sent to A ball and when he returned people talked about him looking a little thinner, but then the season played on and before ending with another injury he resorted to the same 200 hitting occasional Home Run hitter.
 
 
September call ups included Matt Belisle and a trade for Gimenez, more time for Johnny Field and not much excitement outside the young pitchers and that wonderful Opener experiment. Gonsalves, our top pitching prospect has stunk, Littell who has been called up a couple of times continues to stink (I know that they want to make that trade look good for the FO). Stewart has improved as we continue to pitch him against the mighty Tigers and Busenitz has demonstrated that AAAA is his best hope (when will they open that league?).
 
Of course there is one rookie who looked really good early in the Season, but he could not even be called up to toss a couple BP sessions - Romero.
 
 
Among hitters only Astudillo has appeared and that is because we have our original starter out for the season, our next starter out with a concussion, our first reserve traded for last years reserve and only Astudillo available for actually crouching behind the plate.
 
 
No look at Rooker or Gordon or any other potential hitters. So how good is our player development? I just read the Athletics Matthew Kory in the season ending power ranking and his comments really jumped out at me.
 
 
"One of the things that good teams do is draft talented players, develop them in the minors, and turn them into stars when they get to the big leagues. The Red Sox have done that with Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. The Indians have done that with José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor. The Astros have done that with Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman (and George Springer) (and José Altuve). The Twins should have done that with Miguel Sanó and Byron Buxton… but they haven’t. Despite loads of talent, Sanó is barely playable and Buxton supposedly isn’t even ready for a September call-up. If you’re looking for the difference between Minnesota and every playoff team in baseball, that’s it in a nutshell."

I posted this idea in a discussion thread, but I do think it fits better in the blog section or in its own thread, but chose blog. I will leave the scenario as I posted it in the other thread.
 
Anyway, in light of a recent debate on the value of defense, I came up with a problem. It would be interesting to run a simulation on this or hear what inputs others might have on it.
 
Anyway, here it goes:
 
There are two teams.
 
One team is full of great hitters, 1 through 9, these are .950 OPS, 40 HR types of guys, don't strike out much, can draw a walk, but they are sloppy with the defense, all of them, and some in fact are downright terrible (the worst one is trying to hide in left or right field). Also, let's say they don't run much and are station to station baserunners.
 
The other team is full of defensive whizzes, who make all the plays, throw to the right bases, great range, great gloves, rarely make an error, but are sub-.200 hitters.
 
The great offense hits against the great fielders, and the poor hitters hit into the poor defense.
 
All pitching is equal.
 
They play a game.
 
What happens?
 
Now, the two teams play a 162-game season against each other. How does that turn out? Or say these two teams existed within MLB as it is now, 2 teams among the 30. Again, all pitching normalized. Where does each team finish in the standings?
 
Have at it, blog readers!!

It is hard to put into words how much Brian Dozier has meant to the Twins organization. It has been a blast watching Brian grow into one of the better power hitters in the league. He has had a bit of a down year, and that is a shame, but that does not take away the joy he has brought to not only Twins fans, but the community as well.
 
Many think of Dozier as the guy who gets upset when teams bunt for a hit in the ninth inning in a blowout like he did in the first series of the year in Baltimore when Chance Sisco did just that. But that is not who Dozier is. He is much more like this story from a few weeks back.
 
He came up at age 25 in 2012 to the Twins while the team was in the midst of a 66-96 season, good for last place in the AL Central as well as the entire American League. That year, Dozier was called up in May to replace Justin Morneau. He’d go onto hit six homers and drive in 33 in 316 at-bats. His OPS was only .603, but that he would make a huge jump from there on.
 
Even with the team continuing to lose, No. 2 had become a feared power hitter in the Twins lineup. From the time he made his debut on May 7, 2012, through 2014, the Twins had a record of just 195-264 and never finished above fourth in the division. Still, Brian improved his homer total from six in 2012 to 18 in 2013 to 23 in 2014. Along with that, his OPS improved to .762 in 2014.
 
Everything all started to come together in 2015. Minnesota started out hot in 2015, and so did Dozier. Heading into June, the Twins had a record of 30-19, and they were 49-40 at the All-Star break, firmly in contention for a playoff spot. During that first half, he gave us Twins fans some unforgettable moments. Dozier, who was in the running for the Final Vote for the All-Star game, hit two walk-off homers in the span of a week. First, he crushed a homer to left field off Baltimore’s Tommy Hunter to beat the Orioles 4-2. Then, he gave Target Field its best moment since Jim Thome’s walk-off in 2010 vs. Chicago. With the Twins trailing 6-1 in the ninth inning against Detroit, it appeared Minnesota was going to fall to 2-9 against the Tigers on the year. Instead, they strung together four hits as well as a walk and a hit batter to cut the Detroit lead to 6-5 with runners on first and second and one out. Detroit closer Joakim Soria hung a curve to Dozier, and the Twins second baseman blasted it off the facing of the upper deck for the improbable win.
 
He fell in the Final Vote to Mike Moustakas of Kansas City, but Dozier wound up going to Cincinnati anyway, replacing Toronto’s Jose Bautista. All he did in his first All-Star game was hit a homer in the eighth inning off Pittsburgh’s Mark Melancon in the American League’s 6-3 win. He was just the second Twins player with a pinch-hit homer in an All-Star game, joining Twins legend Harmon Killebrew. He joined Killebrew and another Twins legend, Kirby Puckett, as the only Twins players to homer in an All-Star game, period.
 
He had a disappointing second half of the season, and the Twins faded a bit. After hitting 19 bombs in the first half of the season, he only hit nine after the break. After the break, his batting average went from .256 down to .236, and his OPS went from the .841 he had in the first half down to .751 at season’s end. Even then, they had a chance to make the playoffs heading into the final series of the season, but Minnesota was outscored 14-3 in a 3-game sweep at the hands of the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals.
 
There was plenty of optimism after that season, but the Twins stumbled to the league’s worst record. But even then, Dozier gave Twins fans a reason to come out to Target Field. The former Southern Miss standout hit 42 bombs in 2016, which set an American League record for homers as a second baseman in one season, surpassing former New York Yankees and Texas Rangers standout Alfonso Soriano. The guy had turned into one of the most feared sluggers in the game. Not bad for somebody who only hit 16 home runs combined in the minors.
 
He had another great year in 2017, helping lead the Twins back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, as he hit .271 with 34 homers and 93 RBI. Dozier also hit a leadoff home run in the Wild Card game against the Yankees.
Yes, he and a number of teammates have had a rough first four months of this season, which is why they’re at the point they are at. Although, he did give us fans one more lasting memory, as he hit a walk-off grand slam off Tampa Bay’s Matt Andriese in the last game before the All-Star break. It is unfortunate that this is the way things had to end because Brian has been such a good player on the field since he came up here and has made an even bigger impact off of it.
 
Whether it was hitting walk-off homers, like the one he hit in Detroit to cap off a big comeback, or if it was just bonding with fans, Brian has given us tons of memories in his seven years here, and we wish you nothing but the best in Los Angeles.
 
Thank you, No. 2!

(Entry photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
 
Fogo de Chão, a Brazilian steakhouse with all-you-can-eat tableside-carved meats, was attributed by Eduardo Escobar before this season as a big reason for his success in 2017, according to an interview by the Star Tribune.
 
Reportedly, Eduardo Escobar is unwilling to be traded to any team whose home ballpark is not located near a Fogo de Chão. Namely, of the teams still in playoff contention this year, this will entirely rule out St. Louis (Cardinals), Cleveland (Indians), and Milwaukee (Brewers). It will likely also rule out the Los Angeles Angels, whose stadium is in Anaheim, 2 hours away from the nearest Fogo de Chão.
 
We reached out to Escobar, and he stated “Hey man, I really like Fogo de Chão. No Fogo de Chão would be no bueno. Big meat equals big hits.”
 
Of all the divisions in baseball, only the NL West has Fogo de Chão locations in every city, meaning likely suitors for Escobar could be the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, or Giants (who have a 90%, 45%, and 12% chance of reaching the playoffs in 2018, respectively, according to Fangraphs as of July 5th).
 
On the year, Escobar, a utility infielder who has mostly played third base this year, is hitting .277 (.867 OPS) with 13 homeruns and 50 RBI. Eduardo Escobar will be a Free Agent at the end of the 2018 season, after earning $4.85M this season with the struggling Minnesota Twins.

Byron Buxton practicing his catching in front of a US border wall prototype in June, 2018
 
SAN DIEGO – After suffering for months with severe migraines and with a history of concussions, Byron Buxton announced on Twitter (@OfficialBuck103) yesterday that he’s officially stepping away from Major League Baseball.
 
“We’ll miss his presence on the field and in the clubhouse. He’s definitely one of the best center fielders of all time. We wish him the best in his future endeavors,” said Derek Falvey, Minnesota Twins Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer.
 
Buxton later announced that he’s been working out at a U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) facility in San Diego, California where he’s training to catch bags of drugs, typically heroin, being thrown over the border walls from Mexico to the United States.
 
When asked about the new work he’s preparing for, Buxton said “At least I don’t need to hit anymore.” He added, “I was born to climb walls and catch. And this way, I can also do it while proudly serving my country.”
 
But, is catching baggies of drugs going to be as easy as catching baseballs? Buxton stated, “The tricky part is that all of the bags can come in different sizes and weights. But if it fits in my glove, I’m going to catch it. Just as long as the border wall is not 55 or 60 feet tall like I’ve heard some people are proposing.”
 
Carla Provost, Acting Chief for the U.S. Border Patrol division of the DHS, said that they have had their eye on Buxton for a while, and contacted him when he went on the disabled list in April for migraines. “Last year we really dove into the analytics of border security. We have this new metric, abbreviated DRS, which stands for Drug Rings Squandered. We expect that Byron will step right in and lead the division in DRS.”
 
We caught up with Border Patrol Assistant Chief, Percy Woolbright, to ask about Buxton. “He’ll be a natural at this. He’s really talented. He can cover a lot of wall, too, because I saw his sprint speed has been measured at over 30 feet per second. Also, Byron can come to work every day knowing that the weather along the US-Mexico border is much more predictable than in Minnesota. And if Florida ever decides to secede from the Union like it did in 1861, we’ll set up a new border wall along the US and Florida, and Byron can work close to his family in Georgia.”
 
One might assume that because of the orientation of catching fly balls against the fence in baseball, he should technically be positioned on the south (foreign) side of the wall to catch drugs being catapulted from Mexico. Commenting on this, Woolbright said, “Umm…Oops.”

This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look.
 
In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers.
 
Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish.
 
Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish.
 
So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins.
 
Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish.
 
Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012.
 
This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta.
 
With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.

2017 was the season Twins fans have been waiting for. Although 2015 did offer a bit of a respite from several dreary seasons, it didn't feel as sustainable as last year's performance did. There are many reasons to think that the Twins may be on the road to a prolonged run at the playoffs. Our regular lineup has an excellent mix of productive veterans as well as young players establishing themselves, ranking right up there with the productive teams of the early 2000's. With this year's free agent signings, the bullpen has significant depth. This should allow them to bring up youngsters when they are ready rather than forcing them in due to need as we saw at times last year. The rotation has the potential to be solid, with the caveat that the Twins sign or trade for someone at least of the Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn ilk. There is great reason for hope in Twins Territory.
 
With that in mind, I want to take a stab at something I attempted prior to the 2013 season. 2012 saw the Twins finish 66-96 and there was going to be plenty of opportunity for players to come up from the minors in 2013. I made an attempt to predict which players were most likely to come up the the big leagues that season. It was my spin on a Top 10 Prospect list, but focused on who could most help in 2013.
 
http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-2284-prospects-for-2013/
 
Jump ahead to 2018 and this becomes a much more challenging task. The 2018 Twins have significantly fewer holes that the 2013 squad. It was a challenge to come up with ten players who have a chance to debut and rank them according to their potential to help this year's team. All players on this list would be making their big league debut.
 
#10) DJ Baxendale - RP - Not a sexy pick to contribute to a deep bullpen, but posted sub-3.00 ERA seasons the past two years. I could see the Twins bringing him up as a long reliever during a stretch where the bullpen is overworked. The Twins used 21 pitchers as only relievers last year.
 
#9) Mason Melotakis - RP - Could this be the year he finally breaks through? Melotakis will be 27 this year and while he continues to have relatively high K rates he needs to step up soon or he will be passed up. He is already well down the list of LH options.
 
#8) Zack Littell - SP - Littell makes the list only because the Twins used 15 different starters last year. If it happens again, Littell likely makes his debut. He doesn't have the ceiling that some other prospects in the organization may have, but he has shown continued improvement as he's worked his way through the minors. In 2017 he went 19-1, stuck out 142 in 157 IP and had a 2.12 ERA. He only reached AA for the second half on the season, so a debut would most likely occur after the All-Star Break.
 
#7) LaMonte Wade - OF - Wade is the first non-pitcher on the list, mainly because of the youth and strength of the Twins lineup. I just don't anticipate much opportunity for players to move up this year. If the Twins were to need an OF, Wade would likely be the first option among players who would be making their MLB debut. I could see it happening in the second half of the season. Wade appears to be a similar player to Zach Granite, albeit with more upside.
 
6) Tyler Kinley - RP - This comes with the assumption that the Twins either decide to keep him on the 25 man roster (doubtful) or are able to work out a trade to keep him. He assumes the position Josh Bard may have had if still with the Twins. I still don't quite get exposing Bard when it is believed Kinley has similar velocity but with less command.
 
5) Tyler Jay - RP - Jay would most likely be higher on this list, but health has limited his progression through the system. Jay is the first person on this list that I think is likely to get a callup this year.
 
4) Jake Reed - RP - Reed is my highest rated reliever on the list. He posted a 2.13 ERA in 37 IP between AA and AAA last year. Given the current makeup of the bullpen, I think he would be next in line after Busenitz, Curtis and Chargois (all have already debuted) to get a promotion to the Twins in 2018. Given Chargois' health history, he may only be behind Busenitz and Curtis.
 
3) Nick Gordon - Infield - Gordon is the only other non-pitcher on the list and would likely fill any needs for an infielder at Target Field. The only other option I could see making a debut this season is Levi Michael and I think we all know what the chances of that are. Gordon has not lit the world on fire thus far in the minors, nor has he been terrible. He just continues to climb up the ranks, spending his entire age-21 season at AA posting a .749 OPS.
 
2) Fernando Romero - SP - Romero has possibly the highest upside of starters in AA and AAA in the organization. He went 11-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 120 K in 125 IP this past year at Chattanooga. Health seems to be the only thing holding him back. He could use some seasoning a AAA before his debut sometime this season.
 
1) Stephen Gonsalves - SP - Gonsalves has the most experience of all the prospect starting pitchers and arguably the best production. He has a career ERA of 2.39 and has maintained high K rates throughout the his ascent through the minors. He got a taste of AAA this past season and will likely start there in 2018. He could be the first option for a callup, but might have to wait in line behind Trevor May, Aaron Slegers or Felix Jorge before debuting sometime after June 1. He is also the most likely player on this list to open the season with the Twins if they don't sign another starting pitcher.

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.
 
And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.
 
Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.
 
But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?
 
A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.
 
"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."  
This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.
 
Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.
 
https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497
 
Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)
 
The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.
 
In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.
 
In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.
 
That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.
 
In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.
 
Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.
 
Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.
 
Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.
 
Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.
 
I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.
 
But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
 
Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.
 
And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.
 
Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.
 
But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?
 
A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.
 
"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."  
This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.
 
Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.
 
https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497
 
Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)
 
The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.
 
In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.
 
In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.
 
That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.
 
In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.
 
Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.
 
Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.
 
Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.
 
Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.
 
I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.
 
But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
 
Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.
 
And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.
 
Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.
 
But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?
 
A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.
 
"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."  
This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.
 
Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.
 
https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497
 
Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)
 
The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.
 
In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.
 
In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.
 
That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.
 
In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.
 
Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.
 
Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.
 
Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.
 
Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.
 
I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.
 
But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
 
Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.
 
And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.
 
Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.
 
But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?
 
A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.
 
"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."  
This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.
 
Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.
 
https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497
 
Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)
 
The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.
 
In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.
 
In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.
 
That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.
 
In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.
 
Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.
 
Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.
 
Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.
 
Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.
 
I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.
 
But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
 
Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.
 
And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.
 
Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.
 
But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?
 
A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.
 
"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."  
This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.
 
Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.
 
https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497
 
Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)
 
The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.
 
In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.
 
In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.
 
That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.
 
In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.
 
Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.
 
Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.
 
Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.
 
Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.
 
I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.
 
But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
 
Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.